= 事件点评 华 发 图 2: CPI 同比、结构贡献及预测（%） 4 === 交通工具用燃料 == -CPI同比及预测(%) 食品 = 租赁房房租 ■其他服务 l 3 2 1 0 22-07 23-01 2 -1 -2 2 / 4 事件点评 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 事件点评 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格的说明 本报告仅供华金证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的客户使用。本公司不会因为任何机构或个人接收到本报告而视其为本 公司的当然客户。 本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经事先书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、发表、转发、篡改或引用本报告的 任何部分。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"华金证券股份有限公司研究所"，且不得对 本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述证券买卖的出价或询价。投资者对其投资行为负完全责任，我公司及其雇员对使用 本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。 上海市浦东新区杨高南路 759 号陆家嘴世纪金融广场 30 层 北京市朝阳区建国路 108 号横琴人寿 ...

44 = http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 事件点评 图 2: 社融存量同比及贡献结构 (%) 14 ■人民币贷款 == 表外融资 ■ 企业债券 政府债券 ── 社融存量同比（%） 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 24/04 23/04 23/10 10 -2 资料来源: CEIC，华金证券研究所 2 / 4 Huajin Sec 华 编 网 旗 下 发 企 事件点评 图 4: M2、社融存量、贷款余额同比（%） 15 —●一 社融存量同比（%） - 贷款余额同比(%) --- N2同比 (%) 14 13 12 11 10 g 8 7 6 1 a free 1 1 1 1 24/04 19/04 20/04 21/04 22/10 23/04 18/04 18/10 19/10 20/10 21/10 22/04 23/10 资料来源: CEIC，华金证券研究所 3 / 4 事件点评 秦泰声明，本人具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格，勤勉尽责、诚实守信。本人对本报告的内容和观点负责，保证 信息来源合法合规、研究方法专业审慎、研究观点独立公 ...

金融数据速评（2024.4） 下 下 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 事件点评 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 नाह 图 4: M2、社融存量、贷款余额同比（%） 15 —●一 社融存量同比（%） - 贷款余额同比(%) --- N2同比 (%) 14 13 12 11 10 g 8 7 6 1 a free 1 1 1 1 24/04 19/04 20/04 21/04 22/10 23/04 18/04 18/10 19/10 20/10 21/10 22/04 23/10 资料来源: CEIC，华金证券研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格的说明 本报告仅供华金证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的客户使用。本公司不会因为任何机构或个人接收到本报告而视其为本 公司的当然客户。 本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经事先书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、发表、转发、篡改或引用本报告的 任何部分。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用， ...

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2024年05月11日 行业研究●证券研究报告 通信 行业周报 国内幻方大模型价格降至头部 ，腾讯 万算 1% 3 投资评级 领先大市-A维持 力机柜落地大湾区 首选股票 评级 投资要点 600941.SH 中国移动 增持-B 1、本周回顾 002049.SZ 紫光国微 买入-B 本周通信(中信) 下跌2.71%，同期上证指数上涨1.60%，深证成指上涨1.50%， 一年行业表现 创业板指上涨1.06%，沪深300上涨1.72%。从板块来着，卫星导航本周表现最 佳，涨幅达0.98%，光模块相对弱势，跌幅达6.70%。 涨幅前三的个股为：ST中嘉(23.19%)、*ST通脉(17.89%)、*ST九有(14.16%)。 通信行业出现回调。此外，AI算力指数本周跌幅为4.76%、东数西算指数跌幅为 5.33%；专网领域标的佳讯飞鸿跌幅为13.4%、海能达涨幅为0.47%。我们认为本 周A股市场涨势趋缓。通信产业多事件持续催化。看好全板块投资机会。运营商领 域：中国电信在香港首发手机直连卫星业务；工信部明确UWB频率范围：为中频 段5G/6G发展让路；算力领域：幻方发布全球最强MoE模型DeepSeek-V2；上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight-A" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is leveraging data elements and optimizing industrial layout by building a "Data Traffic Valley" with a "Park + Platform + Finance" service system, enabling data to transition from an element to an asset and then to capital [2] - The company has established 16 major digital application scenarios based on digital infrastructure, with approximately 750 enterprises settled in the Shanxi Park [2] - The company achieved a breakthrough in unsecured data asset financing in Shanxi Province, providing a credit line of 9 million RMB to settled enterprises [2] - The company is focusing on AI technology and digital parks to strengthen its competitive barriers [5] - AI-driven intelligent digital marketing is a key focus, with the company integrating "Data Elements ×" and "Artificial Intelligence +" to form a complete chain of data aggregation, circulation, and application [6] - The company's mobile app distribution platform has 312 million registered users, and its intelligent marketing platform has accumulated over 4 million marketing video materials and 260TB of video and graphic data [6] - The company provides digital transformation and intelligent upgrading services across multiple fields, including the "MetaSurfing-Yuanxiang Intelligent Cloud Platform" and the "Magic Cube Mix Intelligent Marketing Cloud Platform" [6] Financial Performance and Forecasts - The company's revenue for 2023 was 1,761 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was -1,087 million RMB, a significant decline due to losses from equity investments and impairment provisions [19] - The company is forecasted to achieve net profits of 41/44/45 million RMB for 2024/2025/2026, with EPS of 0.03/0.03/0.03 RMB [7] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 22.0% in 2023 to 23.7% in 2024 and remain stable in the following years [7] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 166.4x in 2024, decreasing to 153.0x by 2026 [7] Market and Valuation - The company's total market capitalization is 6,899.62 million RMB, with a circulating market capitalization of 6,748.61 million RMB [4] - The stock price as of May 10, 2024, was 4.17 RMB, with a 12-month price range of 7.96/3.59 RMB [4] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to decrease from 4.6x in 2023 to 4.2x by 2026 [7] Business Segments and Strategy - The company is focusing on AI technology and digital parks to enhance its competitive edge [5] - The "MetaSurfing-Yuanxiang Intelligent Cloud Platform" and the "Magic Cube Mix Intelligent Marketing Cloud Platform" are key components of the company's digital transformation strategy [6] - The company's mobile app distribution platform, "iTools," is a significant player in the mobile app market and phone management tools [6]

446 专网宽带移动通信领先，受益国防信息化加速建设。国防信息化是我国国防支出的 主要方向，2024 年 4 月 19 日，中国人民解放军信息支援部队成立，信息支援部队 是全新打造的战略性兵种，是统筹网络信息体系建设运用的关键支撑，对推动国防 信息化、现代化建设具有重要意义。在《"十四五"规划纲要》中，明确提及了科 技强军、加快三化（机械化、信息化及智能化）融合发展等发展重点，在信息化建 设的战略部署下，我国军用宽带移动通信处于大规模升级换代和改造的前期，在技 术、质量和数量上有巨大的发展空间。公司主要以专网 4G/5G 通信装备的研制、 生产和售后服务为主，专注于陆、海、空、天领域行业用户的行业应用，提供专网 宽带移动通信系统的设备及整体解决方案，在该领域，公司在技术储备、产品化能 力、型号装备数量和市场占有率方面都处于领先地位，随着下游需求不断释放，公 司有望直接受益。 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 投资建议： 公司在行业宽带移动通信领域具有领先优势，在国防信息化战略地位 提升的背景下，公司将长期持续受益。考虑到行业环境波动对公司业绩影响，我 ...

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Policy Changes - Second-tier cities have significantly relaxed purchase restrictions to attract high-end talent from advanced industries[2] - Cities like Xi'an and Hangzhou have completely lifted housing purchase limits, accompanied by increased loan limits for families with multiple children[2][9] Market Dynamics - The current population aging trend may lead to a rebalancing of population between first and second-tier cities, affecting housing demand[30] - First-tier cities still face high housing price-to-income ratios, limiting the effectiveness of recent policy relaxations in stimulating demand[9][30] Financial Support Measures - Policies include enhanced housing provident fund support, promotion of "selling old to buy new" initiatives, and adjustments to commercial loan rates[2][9] - The overall marginal decline in housing prices in second-tier cities is more pronounced compared to first-tier cities, which had lower price increases during the last market upcycle[9][30] Economic Implications - The monetary redistribution policies remain strictly controlled, limiting the potential rebound in housing demand[32][34] - The support from MLF and PSL is significantly lower than in previous cycles, indicating a weak stimulus effect on the real estate market[34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Leading Market-A" rating for the industry, indicating that the investment return is expected to outperform the CSI 300 Index by more than 10% over the next 6 months [1] Core Views - The domestic MoE (Mixture of Experts) model demonstrates significant advantages, particularly in AI vertical applications, which are experiencing growth [1] - DeepSeek-V2, a second-generation MoE model released by DeepSeek, features 236 billion parameters and shows Chinese comprehensive capabilities surpassing GPT-4 and comparable to GPT-4-Turbo and Wenxin 4.0 [1] - The model's English comprehensive capabilities are on par with LLaMA3-70B and exceed those of the open-source MoE model Mixtral8x22B [1] - The model is trained on a high-quality, multi-source pre-training corpus of 8.1T tokens, with an increased proportion of Chinese data compared to the previous generation [1] - DeepSeek-V2 introduces the MLA architecture and a self-developed Sparse structure, DeepSeekMoE, which significantly reduces computational load and inference memory, leading to a substantial decrease in per-token cost [1] - The API pricing for DeepSeek-V2 is 1 yuan per million tokens for input and 2 yuan for output (32K context), which is nearly one-hundredth of the cost of GPT-4-Turbo [1] - The MoE model, composed of multiple sub-models (experts), uses a gating network to adapt specific models based on data, reducing interference between different types of samples [1] - The Transformer architecture, primarily used for sequence-to-sequence tasks, lacks a loop structure, requiring significant computational power and time for training large AI models [1] - The trend is shifting towards sustainable new models with MoE architecture, which are energy-efficient and effective in both training and inference [1] - The domestic AI product market shows significant growth in certain segments, with AI search occupying two of the top five spots in the AI product growth chart [1] - The AI search market in China is expected to reach 32.935 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 32.93% [1] Industry Performance - The industry has shown relative returns of -7.87% over 1 month, 0.38% over 3 months, and -19.66% over 12 months [1] - Absolute returns for the industry are -4.11% over 1 month, 9.33% over 3 months, and -28.64% over 12 months [1] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the update of MoE models may lead new trends in large models, and the development of AI products is expected to enrich the overall ecosystem of vertical fields [1] - Recommended stocks to watch include Kunlun Wanwei, Jiecheng Shares, Visual China, Zhongguang Tianze, CITIC Press, Wanxing Technology, Insai Group, BlueFocus, Yuanlong Yatu, Tianyu Digital, Tom Cat, and Zhongyuan Media [1]