Fiscal Policy - The net increase in government debt last week was 293.9 billion yuan, exceeding the planned 166.1 billion yuan[2] - The expected government debt net increase for this week is 79.7 billion yuan, with a projected government debt growth rate of 11.4% at the end of March, down from 12.0%[2] - The government debt growth rate is expected to further decline to approximately 10.4% by the end of April and around 9.9% by the end of the year[2] Market Outlook - The stock-bond valuation ratio currently favors equities, with a limited shift towards stocks expected during the tightening cycle[3] - The recommendation for this week includes a 50% allocation to the dividend index and a 30% allocation to the Shanghai 50 index[3] - The overall market performance has shown a cumulative outperformance of 6.42% over the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index since the strategy's inception[26] Industry Recommendations - Recommended sectors based on economic conditions include non-ferrous metals and transportation, while electronic and communication sectors are favored from a policy perspective[3][86] - The food and beverage, public utilities, textile and apparel, and banking sectors are also recommended based on industry rotation[3][86] Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market has seen a recovery in trading volume, reaching a high of 560 billion yuan in average daily trading last week, an increase of 18.7%[70] - The focus on convertible bonds includes specific recommendations for bonds such as the Bo 23 convertible bond and the Qilin convertible bond, among others[6][91] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected macroeconomic changes, policy easing beyond expectations, and significant deviations from asset price forecasts[5]

Group 1 - The report suggests a cautious increase in convertible bond positions, focusing on individual bond performance and quality, particularly in sectors like overseas expansion, automotive parts, resource products, and engineering machinery [6][43] - The convertible bond market has seen a recovery in trading volume, reaching a high since Q4 2023, with increased option value and a continued recovery in implied volatility [26][31] - The report recommends specific convertible bonds to watch, including Bo 23, Qilin, Guansheng, Yanpu, Kesi, Chaoda, Del, Haomei, Aidi, Beigang, and Ruichuang [6][43] Group 2 - The report highlights that the overall market for convertible bonds has improved, with the median price rising from 114 to approximately 117.5, and the conversion value increasing from 78 to 80 [17][26] - It notes that the implied volatility has increased, and the difference between implied volatility and historical volatility continues to recover [17][26] - The report identifies sectors with increased trading activity, particularly media, home appliances, and military industry, while some sectors have seen a rise in convertible bond valuations despite declines in underlying stocks [26][31] Group 3 - The report emphasizes a neutral outlook for remaining liquidity in the financial market, indicating that significant improvements are unlikely [6][31] - It suggests that the macroeconomic environment is expected to maintain a stable growth rate, with real GDP growth projected to fluctuate between 4-5% [61][49] - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, transportation, electronics, and communications based on policy perspectives [26][44]

http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 数据来源：聚源、华金证券研究所 风险提示：市场竞争持续加剧；数据库、卫星互联网产业落地不及预期；主营业务 成本持续上升。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|--------|--------|-------|-------|-------| | 会计年度 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元 ) | 2,008 | 1,675 | 1,881 | 2,169 | 2,560 | | YoY(%) | 7.6 | -16.6 | 12.3 | 15.3 | 18.0 | | 归母净利润 (百万元) | -57 | -474 | 18 | 43 | 102 | | YoY(%) | -161.4 | -735.5 | 103.7 | 144.5 | 137.4 | | 毛利率 (%) | 19.1 | 16.5 | 22.5 | 22.9 | 23.6 | | EPS ...

= 事件点评 华 发 图 2: CPI 同比、结构贡献及预测（%） 4 === 交通工具用燃料 == -CPI同比及预测(%) 食品 = 租赁房房租 ■其他服务 l 3 2 1 0 22-07 23-01 2 -1 -2 2 / 4 事件点评 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 事件点评 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格的说明 本报告仅供华金证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的客户使用。本公司不会因为任何机构或个人接收到本报告而视其为本 公司的当然客户。 本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经事先书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、发表、转发、篡改或引用本报告的 任何部分。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"华金证券股份有限公司研究所"，且不得对 本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述证券买卖的出价或询价。投资者对其投资行为负完全责任，我公司及其雇员对使用 本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。 上海市浦东新区杨高南路 759 号陆家嘴世纪金融广场 30 层 北京市朝阳区建国路 108 号横琴人寿 ...

44 = http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 事件点评 图 2: 社融存量同比及贡献结构 (%) 14 ■人民币贷款 == 表外融资 ■ 企业债券 政府债券 ── 社融存量同比（%） 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 24/04 23/04 23/10 10 -2 资料来源: CEIC，华金证券研究所 2 / 4 Huajin Sec 华 编 网 旗 下 发 企 事件点评 图 4: M2、社融存量、贷款余额同比（%） 15 —●一 社融存量同比（%） - 贷款余额同比(%) --- N2同比 (%) 14 13 12 11 10 g 8 7 6 1 a free 1 1 1 1 24/04 19/04 20/04 21/04 22/10 23/04 18/04 18/10 19/10 20/10 21/10 22/04 23/10 资料来源: CEIC，华金证券研究所 3 / 4 事件点评 秦泰声明，本人具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格，勤勉尽责、诚实守信。本人对本报告的内容和观点负责，保证 信息来源合法合规、研究方法专业审慎、研究观点独立公 ...

金融数据速评（2024.4） 下 下 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 事件点评 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 नाह 图 4: M2、社融存量、贷款余额同比（%） 15 —●一 社融存量同比（%） - 贷款余额同比(%) --- N2同比 (%) 14 13 12 11 10 g 8 7 6 1 a free 1 1 1 1 24/04 19/04 20/04 21/04 22/10 23/04 18/04 18/10 19/10 20/10 21/10 22/04 23/10 资料来源: CEIC，华金证券研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格的说明 本报告仅供华金证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的客户使用。本公司不会因为任何机构或个人接收到本报告而视其为本 公司的当然客户。 本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经事先书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、发表、转发、篡改或引用本报告的 任何部分。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用， ...

http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

2024年05月11日 行业研究●证券研究报告 通信 行业周报 国内幻方大模型价格降至头部 ，腾讯 万算 1% 3 投资评级 领先大市-A维持 力机柜落地大湾区 首选股票 评级 投资要点 600941.SH 中国移动 增持-B 1、本周回顾 002049.SZ 紫光国微 买入-B 本周通信(中信) 下跌2.71%，同期上证指数上涨1.60%，深证成指上涨1.50%， 一年行业表现 创业板指上涨1.06%，沪深300上涨1.72%。从板块来着，卫星导航本周表现最 佳，涨幅达0.98%，光模块相对弱势，跌幅达6.70%。 涨幅前三的个股为：ST中嘉(23.19%)、*ST通脉(17.89%)、*ST九有(14.16%)。 通信行业出现回调。此外，AI算力指数本周跌幅为4.76%、东数西算指数跌幅为 5.33%；专网领域标的佳讯飞鸿跌幅为13.4%、海能达涨幅为0.47%。我们认为本 周A股市场涨势趋缓。通信产业多事件持续催化。看好全板块投资机会。运营商领 域：中国电信在香港首发手机直连卫星业务；工信部明确UWB频率范围：为中频 段5G/6G发展让路；算力领域：幻方发布全球最强MoE模型DeepSeek-V2；上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight-A" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is leveraging data elements and optimizing industrial layout by building a "Data Traffic Valley" with a "Park + Platform + Finance" service system, enabling data to transition from an element to an asset and then to capital [2] - The company has established 16 major digital application scenarios based on digital infrastructure, with approximately 750 enterprises settled in the Shanxi Park [2] - The company achieved a breakthrough in unsecured data asset financing in Shanxi Province, providing a credit line of 9 million RMB to settled enterprises [2] - The company is focusing on AI technology and digital parks to strengthen its competitive barriers [5] - AI-driven intelligent digital marketing is a key focus, with the company integrating "Data Elements ×" and "Artificial Intelligence +" to form a complete chain of data aggregation, circulation, and application [6] - The company's mobile app distribution platform has 312 million registered users, and its intelligent marketing platform has accumulated over 4 million marketing video materials and 260TB of video and graphic data [6] - The company provides digital transformation and intelligent upgrading services across multiple fields, including the "MetaSurfing-Yuanxiang Intelligent Cloud Platform" and the "Magic Cube Mix Intelligent Marketing Cloud Platform" [6] Financial Performance and Forecasts - The company's revenue for 2023 was 1,761 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was -1,087 million RMB, a significant decline due to losses from equity investments and impairment provisions [19] - The company is forecasted to achieve net profits of 41/44/45 million RMB for 2024/2025/2026, with EPS of 0.03/0.03/0.03 RMB [7] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 22.0% in 2023 to 23.7% in 2024 and remain stable in the following years [7] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 166.4x in 2024, decreasing to 153.0x by 2026 [7] Market and Valuation - The company's total market capitalization is 6,899.62 million RMB, with a circulating market capitalization of 6,748.61 million RMB [4] - The stock price as of May 10, 2024, was 4.17 RMB, with a 12-month price range of 7.96/3.59 RMB [4] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to decrease from 4.6x in 2023 to 4.2x by 2026 [7] Business Segments and Strategy - The company is focusing on AI technology and digital parks to enhance its competitive edge [5] - The "MetaSurfing-Yuanxiang Intelligent Cloud Platform" and the "Magic Cube Mix Intelligent Marketing Cloud Platform" are key components of the company's digital transformation strategy [6] - The company's mobile app distribution platform, "iTools," is a significant player in the mobile app market and phone management tools [6]

446 专网宽带移动通信领先，受益国防信息化加速建设。国防信息化是我国国防支出的 主要方向，2024 年 4 月 19 日，中国人民解放军信息支援部队成立，信息支援部队 是全新打造的战略性兵种，是统筹网络信息体系建设运用的关键支撑，对推动国防 信息化、现代化建设具有重要意义。在《"十四五"规划纲要》中，明确提及了科 技强军、加快三化（机械化、信息化及智能化）融合发展等发展重点，在信息化建 设的战略部署下，我国军用宽带移动通信处于大规模升级换代和改造的前期，在技 术、质量和数量上有巨大的发展空间。公司主要以专网 4G/5G 通信装备的研制、 生产和售后服务为主，专注于陆、海、空、天领域行业用户的行业应用，提供专网 宽带移动通信系统的设备及整体解决方案，在该领域，公司在技术储备、产品化能 力、型号装备数量和市场占有率方面都处于领先地位，随着下游需求不断释放，公 司有望直接受益。 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 投资建议： 公司在行业宽带移动通信领域具有领先优势，在国防信息化战略地位 提升的背景下，公司将长期持续受益。考虑到行业环境波动对公司业绩影响，我 ...