内容目录 | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 1. 外汇利率: 美元黄金反常齐跌, 会持续吗? . | | 2. 英联储放缓缩表或自在获得失业率—通胀"马鞍形"景优博 | | 3. 日央行易检难紧难以逆转，欧元区加速通编近在眼前 . | | 4. 新一轮放松短期推升热度，保障房仍是长期稳定关键……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 10 | | 5. 消费冷热不均加剧，五一出行持续活跃大宗可选蛋待刺激……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

2024年05月04日 行业研究●证券研究报告 通信 行业周报 华为重磅回归，算网一体中试加速算力发展 投资评级 领先大市-A维持 投资要点 1、本周回顾 首选股票 评级 本周通信(中信) 上涨0.91%，同期上证指数上涨0.52%，深证成指上涨1.30%， 600941.SH 中国移动 增持-B 创业板指上涨1.90%，沪深300上涨0.56%。从板块来着，高频PCB本周表现最 002049.SZ 紫光国微 买入-B 佳，涨幅达5.72%，射频及天线板块相对弱势，涨幅仅为0.61%。 一年行业表现 涨幅前三的个股为：会畅通讯(27.09%)、宜通世纪(18.00%)、ST天喻(12.64%)。 通信行业全面回暖情况持续。此外，AI算力指数本周涨幅为2.56%、东数西算指数 涨幅为2.63%；专网领域标的佳讯飞鸿、海能达涨幅分别0.15%、8.14%。我们认 为本周A股市场已经走出震荡区间，但是持续性有待观察。通信产业驱动较多，持 续催化看好全板块投资机会。运营商领域：算网一体中试平台战队成立，全国11 省规模中试启动；中国移动投产首批12个智算中心节点，算力规模达11EFLOPS； 算力领域：苹果将公布A ...

2024年05月04日 公司研究●证券研究报告 中国西电（ ） 公司快报 601179.SH 电力设备及新能源 | 输变电设备Ⅲ 输配电一次设备龙头，受益特高压建设+海外市 投资评级 增持-B(首次) 场拓展 股价(2024-04-30) 7.07元 交易数据 投资要点 总市值（百万元） 36,239.99 流通市值（百万元） 36,239.99 事件：公司发布2023年年报和2024年第一季度报告，2023全年实现营业总收入 总股本（百万股） 5,125.88 210.51亿元，实现归母净利润8.85亿元，实现归母扣非净利润6.41亿元，实现经 流通股本（百万股） 5,125.88 营活动产生的现金流量净额12.15亿元。2024年第一季度，实现营业总收入47.11 12个月价格区间 7.93/4.50 亿元，同比-2.94%；实现归母净利润2.03亿元，同比+7.27%；实现归母扣非净利 一年股价表现 润1.9亿元，同比+6.78%。 输配电一次设备龙头，特高压中标提升。公司作为能源电力装备行业内多年深耕的 国资央企，输配电产业链设备齐全，主导产品包括110kV及以上电压等级的高压 开关、变压器、电抗 ...

2024年05月02日 公司研究●证券研究报告 东方电缆（ ） 公司快报 603606.SH 电力设备及新能源 | 输变电设备Ⅲ 坏账冲回拉动业绩，海风复苏下前景可期 投资评级 买入-B(维持) 股价(2024-04-30) 44.09元 投资要点 交易数据 事件：公司发布2024年一季报， 24Q1实现营收13.10亿，同比-8.86%，环比 总市值（百万元） 30,321.37 -33.16%，归母净利润2.63亿，同比+2.95%，环比+47.82%，毛利率22.23%，同 流通市值（百万元） 30,321.37 比-8.73pct，环比-0.22pct。扣除非经常性损益的归母净利润1.93亿，同比-22.17%。 总股本（百万股） 687.72 流通股本（百万股） 687.72 行业淡季，坏账冲回拉动业绩。公司24Q1业绩环比上升，主要系资产处置正收益 12个月价格区间 52.50/33.14 /信用减值损失冲回分别为0.52亿/0.47亿，助力业绩在海风淡季背景下超过市场预 期。分业务来看，24Q1公司陆缆/海缆系统/海洋工程分别实现营收7.38/3.81/1.89 一年股价表现 亿元，同比-5 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy-A" for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [4][19]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth in 2023, driven by the development of its new energy vehicle (NEV) components business. The outlook for 2024 remains optimistic due to a solid customer base and ongoing R&D efforts in NEV components [4][19]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at CNY 815 million, CNY 887 million, and CNY 971 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.42%, 8.78%, and 9.53% respectively. Corresponding net profits are expected to be CNY 71 million, CNY 80 million, and CNY 92 million, with growth rates of 10.71%, 12.79%, and 14.49% [4][8]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of CNY 759 million in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 7.33%. However, the net profit decreased by 5.01% to CNY 64 million due to increased tax expenses [13][19]. - The revenue from the power system components in 2023 was CNY 485 million, reflecting a growth of 23.36%. In contrast, the chassis system components revenue declined by 9.84% to CNY 86 million [13][19]. - The projected financials for 2024-2026 include: - Total revenue: CNY 815 million (2024), CNY 887 million (2025), CNY 971 million (2026) - Net profit: CNY 71 million (2024), CNY 80 million (2025), CNY 92 million (2026) - EPS: CNY 0.51 (2024), CNY 0.58 (2025), CNY 0.66 (2026) [4][5][19]. Business Segments - The power system components are projected to generate revenues of CNY 539 million, CNY 600 million, and CNY 670 million from 2024 to 2026, with growth rates of 11.07%, 11.37%, and 11.59% respectively [7][42]. - The chassis system components are expected to see a decline in revenue, with projections of CNY 85 million, CNY 83 million, and CNY 82 million for 2024-2026, reflecting negative growth rates [28]. - Revenue from automotive connectors and components is anticipated to grow significantly, with estimates of CNY 52 million, CNY 61 million, and CNY 71 million for the same period, showing growth rates of 16.44%, 18.04%, and 16.53% [42][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a 66.10% year-on-year increase in 2023, achieving a total revenue of 884 million yuan. The net profit loss has narrowed compared to the previous year [2][4] - The company is actively expanding its domestic and international markets, particularly in satellite internet and communication sectors, which are expected to contribute positively to future performance [11][4] - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with a 5.92% increase in R&D investment year-on-year, and a significant number of new patents granted [4][11] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 884 million yuan, with a main business revenue of 872 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 65.17% year-on-year [2][4] - The net profit for 2023 was -87 million yuan, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [2][4] - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.64%, with a net profit of 7 million yuan, up 46.84% year-on-year [2] Market Expansion - The company has secured a high-value satellite communication order worth 112 million USD, indicating strong market demand and potential for future revenue growth [11] - The company has successfully won multiple contracts in both domestic and international markets, including significant projects in the 5G core network and satellite internet sectors [11] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 1.175 billion yuan, 1.486 billion yuan, and 1.815 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 32.9%, 26.5%, and 22.1% [4][13] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is expected to be 62 million yuan, 109 million yuan, and 169 million yuan, with substantial year-on-year growth rates [4][13]

Policy Implementation - The meeting emphasized the effective implementation of established macro policies, including the early issuance and utilization of ultra-long-term special government bonds[1] - Coordination among fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies is expected to be enhanced, promoting a more consistent macro policy orientation[1] - Policies for replacing old equipment and updating machinery remain key points for expanding domestic demand[1] Development of New Productive Forces - The meeting highlighted the need to develop new productive forces tailored to local conditions, focusing on future industries[1] - Advanced technologies will be utilized to empower the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries[1] Market Impact - The meeting is likely to positively influence market trends, with A-shares expected to experience further upward fluctuations[1] - Short-term expectations for profitability may improve due to the emphasis on policy implementation and infrastructure investment[1] - Long-term growth expectations are bolstered by the upcoming Third Plenary Session focusing on advancing Chinese-style modernization[1] Liquidity and Risk Appetite - The meeting is anticipated to enhance expectations for liquidity easing, with monetary policy expected to align with fiscal efforts[1] - The emphasis on proactive policy implementation may alleviate market concerns regarding fiscal stimulus[1] - The focus on economic development during the Third Plenary Session is likely to boost market sentiment[1] Beneficiary Industries - Industries related to new productive forces, such as TMT, electric new energy, machinery, and pharmaceuticals, are expected to benefit[2] - The real estate sector and its supply chain may also see advantages from policies aimed at digesting existing properties and promoting high-quality development[2]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------|----------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------| | 2024 年 05 月 02 日 \n日月股份（ 603218.SH ） \n盈利能力稳中有升，新产品有望打开新增量 \n投资要点 | 投资评级 \n股价 | (2024-04-30) | 公司研究●证券研究报告 \n电力设备及新能源 买入 | 公司快报 \n\| 风电Ⅲ -A(维持) \n12.29 元 | | | 交易数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 事件 ：公司发布 2023 年年报与 2024 年 ...

投资要点 2024 年 05 月 02 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 图 1: 美联储总资产规模及结构 (USD bn) 100000 = MBS ■回购和贷款 ■长期国债(USD bn) ■短期国债 =央行流动性互换 =实体经济贷款 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 2024 2007 2008 资料来源:CEIC,华金证券研究所 2 / 3 秦泰声明，本人具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格，勤勉尽责、诚实守信。本人对本报告的内容和观点负责，保证 信息来源合法合规、研究方法专业审慎、研究观点独立公正、分析结论具有合理依据，特此声明。 本报告仅供华金证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的客户使用。本公司不会因为任何机构或个人接收到本报告而视其为本 公司的当然客户。 华金证券股份有限公司对本声明条款具有惟一修改权和最终解释权。 办公地址： http://www.h ...

华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 业 公司快报/风电Ⅲ http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 财务数据与估值 数据来源：聚源、华金证券研究所 公司快报/风电Ⅲ | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|---------|-------|-------|-------|-------|----------------------------------|-------|---------|-------|-------|-------| | 资产负债表 ( 百万元 ) \n会计年度 | \n2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 利润表 ( 百万元 ) \n 会计年度 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 流动资产 | 4429 | 4015 | 4951 | 5264 | 6732 | 营业收入 ...