2025 年 01 月 13 日 行业研究●证券研究报告 CES2025:从眼镜到陪伴机器人，AI 加速硬件创新 投资要点 2025CES 闭幕，今年 CES 特别强调 AI 广泛应用，从 AI 手机、电脑，到能识别食 材并自动推荐菜谱的 AI 冰箱，再到提供个性化学习辅导的 AI 学习伴侣，以及具 备健康监测功能的医疗设备，甚至 AI 玩具。 陪伴机器人：陪伴型小机器人爆发，标志着智能陪伴时代的正式到来。在 CES 2025 的展台上，陪伴型小机器人成为了展会的一大亮点，这些机器人不仅在技 术上展现了高度的创新，更在情感陪伴和生活辅助方面为用户带来了全新的体 验。（1）Ropet：Ropet 最大程度地模拟一个真正的生命体，有体温，也会有 饥饿等反应。在通过传感器收集视、听、触维度的互动数据后，Ropet 内置的端 侧模型会进行学习，通过离线的端侧计算，去进行决策逻辑设计。经过不断训练 和学习，每一只 Ropet 都会发展出自己的行为特点和相处模式。（2）Ai Me： TCL 发布名为 Ai Me 的概念陪伴机器人，该公司将 Ai Me (Amy) 描述为"世界 上第一款模块化人工智能伴侣机器人"，通过摄像 ...

2025 年 01 月 12 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 甬矽电子（688362.SH） 公司快报 24 业绩预计扭亏为盈，持续布局多维异构封装 投资要点 行业景气度回升/产品线持续丰富，预计 24 归母净利润扭亏为盈。2024 年内，全 球半导体行业呈现温和复苏态势，集成电路行业整体景气度有所回升，下游需求复 苏带动公司产能利用率提升。得益于部分客户所处领域的景气度回升、新客户拓展 顺利及部分新产品线的产能爬坡，公司营业收入规模快速增长，规模效应逐步显现， 毛利率有所回升。（1）营收/业绩方面，根据公司业绩预告披露，2024 年公司预 计实现营收在 35 亿元至 37 亿元之间，同比增长在 46.39%至 54.76%之间；预计 实现归母净利润 0.55 亿元至 0.75 亿元之间。2024Q4 年公司预计实现营收在 9.48 亿元至 11.48 亿元之间，同比增长在 24.74%至 51.05%之间，环比增长在 2.82% 至 24.51%之间；预计实现归母净利润 0.13 亿元至 0.33 亿元之间。在客户端，公 司已成为国内众多 SoC 类客户的第一供应商，伴随客户一同成长，另外公司在台 系客户方面不 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company plans to invest approximately 2 billion yuan in a deep-sea transmission equipment project in Beihai, Guangxi, which will be developed in three phases [4] - The project aims to leverage Guangxi's potential in offshore wind power, with a planned capacity of 13.4 GW in the Beibu Gulf area, and is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in high-end submarine cables and related technologies [4] - The new policies for offshore wind management indicate a clear trend towards deep-sea projects, which are anticipated to become the main focus of offshore wind development in China during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 9.61 billion yuan, 11.81 billion yuan, and 14.08 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 31.5%, 22.9%, and 19.2% [6][8] - The expected net profits for the same years are 1.31 billion yuan, 1.91 billion yuan, and 2.44 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 30.9%, 45.7%, and 28.1% [6][8] - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.90 yuan, 2.77 yuan, and 3.55 yuan, with P/E ratios of 29, 20, and 15 respectively [5][6]

2025 年 01 月 10 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 央行暂停买债，降准概率提升 定期报告 华金宏观·双循环周报（第 90 期） 投资要点 春节错位与加速化债的共同影响可能导致春节前后企业中长贷降温提速，维持人民 银行将择机下调7天逆回购利率40BP左右以温和刺激新增债务融资需求的预测不 变。从信用扩张的角度来看，尽管四季度货币政策委员会明确指出要"引导金融机 构加大货币信贷投放力度"，但一方面，今年春节较去年大幅提前，存在春节错位 因素的影响；另一方面，化债置换加速推进或导致信贷扩张进一步降温，因而预计 2025 年春节前后企业中长贷降温可能加速；同时，由于房地产市场调整尚未完成， 居民借贷意愿仍然不强，所以信贷扩张步伐预计将大幅受限。社融方面，尽管人民 币贷款加速降温，但两万亿置换债或将于一季度密集发行，政府债务融资将起到一 定支撑，因而下滑幅度预计将小于信贷。从刺激新增债务融资需求的角度考虑，2025 年择机下调 7 天逆回购利率是必要的，从稳汇率的角度考虑，降息时点预计将与美 联储上半年的降息步调尽量保持同步；幅度方面，考虑到当前商业银行净息差已收 缩至较窄区间，加之对新增低效债务杠杆的严格控制，我 ...

2025 年 01 月 10 日 行业研究●证券研究报告 COC/COP 环烯烃聚合物前景广阔，国产替代 提速 投资要点 COC/COP 环烯烃聚合物性能优异，主要用于光学、医疗、包装等：环烯烃聚合物 (COC/COP)是由烯烃与环烯烃共聚或环烯烃单聚形成的具有一系列优良性能的材 料，其中 COC 由烯烃与环烯烃单体共聚而成，COP 由环烯烃单体单聚而成。具有 透明性高、双折射率小、生物相容性好、绝缘性强等优良特性，被广泛应用于光 学、包装、医疗等领域。从消费结构来看，COC/COP 主要应用于光学，占比 53.2%； 其次为包装和医疗领域，分别占比 25.3%和 15.1%；其他领域占比 6.4%；预计到 2025 年，光学领域占比上升至 55.4%。光学：环烯烃聚合物具有光学性能好，耐 热性高，尺寸稳定性好、透明性高、双折射率低、介质损耗小等特性，极适用于 各类光学元件材料制备，也是目前 COC/COP 树脂最高端和其消费量最大的下游。 其应用形态可分为光学树脂和光学薄膜两种，其中光学树脂主要用于智能手机镜 头、安防镜头、车载镜头、AR/VR 光学镜片等，而光学薄膜主要用于背光源和图 像光领域液晶显示器， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months compared to relevant market indices [30]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Haibo Sichuang, is a leading provider of electrochemical energy storage system solutions and technical services in China, focusing on the research, production, and sales of energy storage systems [8][21]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with revenues of 0.838 billion, 2.626 billion, and 6.982 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, representing year-over-year growth rates of 126.25%, 213.40%, and 165.89% respectively [9][21]. - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, having established subsidiaries in Singapore, the United States, Australia, and Germany, and has secured multiple overseas orders [22][23]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.11 billion, 1.77 billion, and 5.78 billion yuan for the years 2021 to 2023, with year-over-year growth rates of 413.46%, 1474.23%, and 226.13% respectively [9][21]. - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 5.198 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 20.40%, and a net profit of 0.313 billion yuan, up 77.36% [9][21]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 18.39% to 24.62% in 2024 compared to 2023, with net profit expected to grow by 6.25% to 11.84% [9][21]. Industry Overview - The global energy storage market has seen substantial growth, with a cumulative installed capacity of 289.2 GW by the end of 2023, reflecting a year-over-year growth rate of 21.9% [16]. - In China, the installed capacity of energy storage projects reached 103.3 GW by mid-2024, with new energy storage projects showing a significant increase in both power and energy scale [20]. - The competitive landscape in China's energy storage battery industry is concentrated, with leading companies like CATL and BYD dominating the market [20]. Company Highlights - The company has established strong partnerships with major state-owned enterprises and power grid companies, enhancing its market position [8][21]. - The core technical team is composed of highly educated professionals with extensive experience in the industry, which supports the company's innovation capabilities [21]. - The company ranks second in the shipment volume among energy storage system integrators in China as of 2023, according to CNESA statistics [21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [28]. Core Insights - The company, Yalian Machinery, specializes in the research, production, sales, and service of artificial board production lines and supporting equipment. It has achieved significant revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase of 33.85% for 2024 [2][6][24]. - The company has a strong market position, being one of the few in the industry with complete production line capabilities and holding a leading market share in continuous press production lines for fiberboard and particleboard [18][19]. - Yalian Machinery is expanding its international market presence, having established operations in ten countries and signed multiple production line orders with reputable clients [19][20]. - The company is also diversifying its technology and products into new material board manufacturing, successfully applying its technology to rock fiber boards and other innovative materials [21]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 522 million yuan, 480 million yuan, and 647 million yuan for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 50.13%, -8.0%, and 34.68% [7][24]. - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 618 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 43.77%, and a net profit of 126 million yuan, up 92.52% [6][7]. - The company's revenue is primarily derived from production lines, which accounted for 74.73% of total revenue in 2023 [7]. Industry Overview - The artificial board manufacturing industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a focus on fiberboard, particleboard, and plywood. The industry is moving towards domestic technology and equipment to meet both domestic and international market demands [14][15]. - The market for plywood production lines is characterized by small, dispersed enterprises and labor-intensive processes, indicating a trend towards automation and advanced production technologies [16]. - The fiberboard production sector has seen a shift towards continuous press technology, with a significant number of production lines in operation across the country [17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is AAA/AAA as per the report [5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company is the largest integrated water supply and drainage enterprise in Chongqing, holding a monopoly position in the local market [10][12]. - The company has a bond issuance scale of 1.9 billion yuan with a maturity of 6 years and a conversion price set at 4.98 yuan, which is considered a high level of compensation interest at 6% [5][6]. - The report indicates that the company's stock price has decreased by 3.06% year-to-date as of January 7, 2025, outperforming the industry index which declined by 5.06% [37]. Summary by Sections 1. Convertible Bond Analysis - The convertible bond has a total issuance size of 1.9 billion yuan and a conversion price of 4.98 yuan, with a maturity of 6 years [5][6]. - The pure bond value is calculated at 99.89 yuan, corresponding to a yield to maturity (YTM) of 1.85%, indicating sufficient debt protection [5][6]. 2. Subscription Rate Analysis - The expected subscription rate is estimated at 0.0054% based on the assumption of 800 million households participating with a maximum subscription amount of 1 million yuan per household [8]. 3. Company Overview - The company is primarily engaged in sewage treatment and water supply services, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from these services [10][12]. - The company has been granted exclusive operating rights for water supply and sewage treatment in Chongqing, ensuring a stable revenue stream [10][12]. 4. Industry Analysis - The water industry is crucial for urban infrastructure and public utilities, with increasing demand driven by urbanization and environmental protection awareness [18][19]. - The report notes a steady growth in urban water supply and sewage treatment projects, with significant market opportunities arising from government policies aimed at improving infrastructure [21][22]. 5. Financial Analysis - For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.123 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.65%, and a net profit of 729 million yuan, down 49.49% [28][35]. - The company's asset-liability ratio has been on the rise but remains at a relatively low level, indicating manageable financial health [29][35]. 6. Valuation Performance - As of January 7, 2025, the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 60.96, which is higher than the average of comparable companies, indicating a general valuation pressure [36][39]. - The report anticipates a conversion premium of approximately 40% on the first day of trading for the convertible bond, with an expected price range of 128.46 to 141.98 yuan [42].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the release of demand across multiple product lines, including fingerprint recognition chips, touch control chips, audio products, and wireless connectivity solutions, particularly in the context of the AI era [1][2] - The company has a strong market presence in the semiconductor solutions for smart terminals, IoT, and automotive electronics, with significant revenue contributions from its fingerprint recognition and touch control chip businesses [1] - The anticipated growth in revenue and profit margins is driven by technological upgrades, market expansion, and strategic acquisitions [1][7] Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company operates in four core business areas: sensing, computing, connectivity, and security, primarily targeting smart terminals, IoT, and automotive electronics [1] - In 2023, the revenue contribution from fingerprint recognition chips was 42.87%, while touch control chips accounted for 34.34% [1] Growth Drivers - The growth is attributed to the expansion of the OLED market, continuous upgrades in core product lines, and the maturation of other product lines such as audio products and wireless connectivity solutions [1] - The company is expected to see rapid growth in the shipment of ultrasonic fingerprint products starting in 2023, which will significantly enhance revenue and gross profit levels [1][7] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted upwards to 62.69 billion and 74.68 billion respectively, with net profit estimates for the same years revised to 9.52 billion and 12.31 billion [7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024 to 2026 are 46.4, 36.6, and 28.3 respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [7][8] Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading supplier in the fingerprint and touch control chip markets, with a growing customer base among smartphone brands [1][2] - The strategic acquisition of Yunyinggu Technology is expected to enhance the company's market position and product offerings in the OLED display driver chip sector [7]

相关报告 消费刺激新政：扩容、增量、持续 2025.1.8 CNY 再破 7.3，长端利率加速下行，如何破 局？——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 89 期） 2025.1.3 消费内需带动制造业 PMI 平稳收官——PMI 点评（2024.12） 2024.12.31 投资要点 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 利润跌幅收窄，主因降息降费——工业企业 利润点评（2024.11）暨双循环周报（第 88 期） 2024.12.27 2025 年 01 月 09 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 核心 CPI 连续修复，消费补贴持续拉动耐用品需求 事件点评 CPI、PPI 点评（2024.12） 日英央行按兵不动，无力扭转汇率跳水趋势 ——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 87 期） 2024.12.20 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 12 月总体 CPI 受食品价格大幅偏低影响而再度小幅下行，核心 CPI 却在消费补贴 的拉动下连续逆势 ...