Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [20][24]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that starting from January 2025, TSMC will increase the foundry prices for its 3nm, 5nm, and CoWoS processes by 5% to 20% [20]. - There is a significant increase in demand for CoWoS and similar packaging capacities, projected to grow by 113% globally by 2025, driven by the strong demand for cloud AI accelerators [20]. - TSMC's monthly capacity is expected to rise to 65,000 wafers by the end of Q4 2025, with major clients like NVIDIA benefiting from this increase [20]. - The transition from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L is becoming evident, with NVIDIA's demand for CoWoS-L expected to surge from 32,000 wafers in 2024 to 380,000 wafers in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1018% [20]. - The report anticipates that by Q4 2025, CoWoS-L will account for 54.6% of TSMC's total CoWoS capacity, while CoWoS-S will represent 38.5% [20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the increasing prices of TSMC's 3nm and 5nm processes, which are expected to rise by 5% to 10%, and CoWoS technology prices are projected to increase by 15% to 20% due to high demand in the AI sector [20]. Market Demand - The demand for CoWoS packaging is driven by NVIDIA's products, which will utilize CoWoS-L technology in their B300 and GB300 series starting in 2025 [20]. - Other companies such as AMD and major tech firms like Broadcom, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google also show a certain level of demand for CoWoS technology [20]. Key Players - Major suppliers in the CoWoS market include TSMC, SPIL, and ASE, which are expanding their capacities to meet the growing demand [20].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - December manufacturing PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 to 50.1, remaining above the neutral level for the third consecutive month, indicating stable economic conditions[1] - New orders index rose by 0.2 to 51.0, reaching an 8-month high, reflecting improved overall demand in manufacturing[1] - Consumer goods PMI surged by 0.6 to 51.4, the second-highest level in 16 months, driven by the positive effects of consumption subsidies[1] Structural Challenges - Traditional investment-related indices and strategic emerging industry export orders showed structural weakness, with the export orders index dropping significantly by 3.3 to 44.2, the lowest since September[1] - The inventory index for finished goods rose slightly by 0.5 to 47.9, indicating ongoing challenges in the replenishment process due to declining infrastructure investment growth[1] Economic Outlook - The construction PMI increased sharply by 3.5 to 53.2, primarily influenced by the early Lunar New Year, rather than a trend improvement[1] - Service sector PMI rose by 1.9 to 52.0, reflecting strong consumer demand as the year-end approaches[1] - The report emphasizes that the stability of manufacturing PMI in 2025 will largely depend on the effectiveness of fiscal expansion policies aimed at boosting consumption[1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Leading the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The power market is facing both challenges and opportunities, with a recommendation to focus on companies in power forecasting and load aggregation, such as Guoneng Rixin, Anke Rui, and Langxin Group [5] - The electricity trading volume in Guangdong Province for 2025 is projected to be 341.094 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.10%, with an average transaction price of 391.86 yuan/MWh, down 73.76 yuan/MWh or 15.84% year-on-year [7] - The electricity trading volume in Jiangsu Province for 2025 is expected to be 328.22 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 8.98%, with an average price of 412.45 yuan/MWh, down 40.49 yuan/MWh or 8.94% year-on-year [7] - The annual electricity trading has cleared price risks, with the average transaction price in Guangdong for 2025 expected to be 391.86 yuan/MWh, reflecting a downward pressure on prices due to supply-demand structure and market competition [7] - The rapid increase in new energy installations and the commissioning of new thermal power units have led to a surplus in electricity supply, contributing to the downward trend in electricity prices [7] - The average utilization hours of national power generation equipment from January to November 2024 decreased by 151 hours compared to the same period last year, indicating a tightening demand [7] - The coal price has been on a downward trend, with market thermal coal prices expected to fall below long-term contract prices by 2025 [7] - The average price of electricity in Guangdong's spot market dropped to 0.3178 yuan/kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 26.74% [7] - The report highlights the increasing participation of new energy in market trading, with significant growth in the proportion of photovoltaic and wind power entering the market by 2025 [7] - The report suggests that with the clearing of electricity price risks, the focus shifts to investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly in companies like Changjiang Electric Power, China Nuclear Power, and Huadian International [7] Summary by Sections - **Electricity Market Dynamics**: The report discusses the ongoing marketization of the electricity sector, with various provinces implementing long-term electricity prices and the impact of new energy sources on market dynamics [7] - **Trading Volume and Price Trends**: Detailed statistics on trading volumes and average prices in Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces for 2025, highlighting significant year-on-year changes [7] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: An analysis of the supply-demand structure, including the effects of new energy installations and coal price trends on electricity prices [7] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report emphasizes the potential for investment in the electricity sector, particularly in leading companies and regions, as the market continues to evolve [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the market (maintained)" [2][15]. Core Viewpoints - The 2024 New Year box office reached nearly 230 million yuan on December 28, 2024, with a total box office of 2.376 billion yuan as of December 29, 2024 [15]. - Several major films are scheduled for the 2025 Spring Festival, including "Nezha," "Fengshen," and "Detective Chinatown," indicating a strong lineup of IPs [15]. - The industry is expected to benefit from high-quality content that meets diverse audience needs, potentially igniting a viewing boom [15]. - The 2023 Chinese film market saw a strong recovery with a box office of 54.915 billion yuan and 1.299 billion viewers, marking significant growth [15]. - The 2025 Spring Festival period is anticipated to continue the trend of high box office performance with major IPs [15]. Summary by Sections - **Investment Rating**: The report maintains an "Outperform the market" rating for the industry, indicating expected growth exceeding 15% relative to market indices over the next 6-12 months [2][15]. - **Key Events**: The report highlights the impressive box office performance of the 2024 New Year films, with significant contributions from popular titles [15]. - **Market Trends**: The report notes that the Spring Festival and summer seasons are critical for the film market, with these periods accounting for 50% of annual box office revenue in recent years [15]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on companies such as Light Media, China Film, and Wanda Film, which are expected to benefit from the upcoming film releases [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor industry [1]. Core Insights - The demand for AI is driving continuous growth in computing power, highlighting the importance of interconnection solutions [1]. - Rapid development of AI applications is accelerating the demand for "computing power" and "storage capacity," while also raising the requirements for "interconnectivity" [1]. - The construction of interconnect communication capabilities for AI computing clusters includes three main aspects: Die-to-Die, Chip-to-Chip, and Board-to-Board interconnections [20][21]. Summary by Sections Interconnection Technology and Chip Demand - The interconnection technology is evolving rapidly, stimulating demand for interconnect chips [1]. - PCIe Retimer chips are becoming mainstream solutions in the industry, with a typical AI server configuration requiring 8 to 16 PCIe Retimer chips [1][46]. - CXL MXC chips are core components for high-bandwidth memory expansion modules, significantly increasing memory capacity and bandwidth for data-intensive applications [1][63]. - MRCD/MDB chips are essential for meeting the high bandwidth memory requirements of AI and big data applications [1][92]. Market Opportunities - Companies such as 澜起科技 (Lianqi Technology), 盛科通信 (Shengke Communication), and 裕太微 (Yutai Micro) are recommended for attention within the interconnect industry chain [1]. - The global CXL market is expected to reach $15 billion by 2028, driven by the increasing compatibility of CPUs with CXL standards [85][86]. Performance Enhancements - The report discusses two main methods for enhancing data center performance: Scale-up (vertical scaling) and Scale-out (horizontal scaling) [24]. - The introduction of NVLink technology has addressed bandwidth and transmission bottlenecks associated with PCIe, facilitating high-speed connections between multiple GPUs [28][13]. Future Trends - The report anticipates that the market for PCIe Retimer chips will continue to expand as GPU demand increases [1][109]. - The integration of CXL technology is expected to enhance system performance and flexibility, with predictions indicating that by 2027, all CPUs will support CXL interfaces [86].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The upcoming CES 2025, scheduled from January 7 to January 11, 2025, in Las Vegas, will showcase significant advancements in "AI + scenarios" by major tech companies such as AMD, Intel, and ASUS [1] - The global smart home market driven by AI is projected to reach $154.4 billion in 2024 and $231.6 billion by 2028, indicating strong growth potential [1] - The demand for AI smart glasses is increasing, with projections suggesting annual sales could reach 55 million units by 2029 and 1.4 billion units by 2035 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Event Overview - CES 2025 will feature product launches and presentations from leading tech companies, highlighting the integration of AI in consumer electronics [1] Market Performance - The report notes a relative performance drop of -4.0% and an absolute performance of -1.2% in the industry [1] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality assets in the software and hardware sectors related to "AI + edge" as the CES 2025 approaches [1]

Group 1 - The core factors influencing the A-share market in January are policies, external events, and liquidity. Historically, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown no significant seasonal effect in January, with 7 instances of increases and 8 instances of decreases since 2010 [10][12]. - Positive policies and external events may lead to an increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, as seen in January 2012, 2019, and 2023. Conversely, negative events or tightened policies may result in declines, as observed in 2010, 2014, 2016, 2020, 2022, and 2024 [10][12]. - The report anticipates that January 2024 may see a continuation of a strong oscillating trend in A-shares, driven by potentially positive policies and a loose liquidity environment [12][20]. Group 2 - The report suggests that the market style in January 2024 may still favor small-cap stocks. Historical data indicates that small-cap stocks tend to outperform during periods of economic recovery and when liquidity is ample [31][34]. - The adjustment period for small-cap stocks may be nearing its end, with the report noting that the recent decline in small-cap performance was influenced by policy tightening expectations and overheated sentiment [31][32]. - The report emphasizes that January's market style is likely to remain biased towards small-cap stocks due to ongoing supportive policies and limited external negative shocks [31][32]. Group 3 - Economic and profit expectations are expected to continue recovering in January, with industrial profit growth showing signs of improvement. The report notes that the profit growth rate for industrial enterprises improved from -10.0% in October to -7.3% in November [35][44]. - The report highlights that domestic liquidity may further loosen in January, supported by seasonal credit peaks and potential monetary policy easing, which could enhance market conditions [38][41]. - The report identifies key sectors to focus on in January, including technology, large financials, and core assets, with expectations of strong performance in high-growth industries such as AI and infrastructure [20][27].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the relevant market index by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recent implementation of Shanghai's AI development plan, aiming to establish a world-class AI industry ecosystem by the end of 2025, with a target of exceeding 100 EFLOPS in intelligent computing power and creating around 50 effective industry applications [4]. - The AI initiative focuses on enhancing productivity through the construction of intelligent computing clusters, data supply systems, and training grounds for vertical models, particularly in key sectors such as finance, manufacturing, education, healthcare, and urban governance [4]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of AI applications and the construction of an innovative ecosystem, which is expected to significantly boost productivity and promote the development of new economic models [4]. Summary by Sections Recent Events - The Shanghai government has issued a plan to advance AI capabilities, aiming for substantial growth in intelligent computing and application development by 2025 [4]. - Multiple cities are actively promoting AI initiatives, with policies designed to enhance the AI ecosystem and stimulate application deployment [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the acceleration of AI industry construction in Shanghai will likely stimulate both supply and demand, positively impacting overall productivity [4]. - Recommended stocks to watch include Tencent Holdings, NetEase, InnoCare Pharma, and several others in the media and technology sectors [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market" (maintained) [2][5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that over 2 million small and medium-sized businesses are expected to achieve business growth through live streaming in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 165% in the number of businesses engaging in self-broadcasting, and total self-broadcast sales exceeding 659.1 billion yuan [2] - The report emphasizes that live streaming e-commerce is a significant driver of growth, contributing over 80% of the incremental growth in the e-commerce sector, with continuous user growth [2] - The report suggests that the head platforms are actively reducing operational costs for merchants, with measures such as waiving service fees and lowering commissions, which have saved small and medium-sized businesses over 7 billion yuan in service fees in 2024 alone [2] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report notes that the number of small and medium-sized businesses collaborating with influencers for live streaming has increased by 334% year-on-year, and the number of small and medium-sized businesses achieving sales exceeding one million yuan through influencer collaborations has grown by 120% [2] - It is projected that new influencers will have development opportunities, with a 40% year-on-year increase in sales for newly registered influencers on the Douyin e-commerce platform [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Tencent Holdings, BlueFocus Communication Group, InnoCare Pharma, Tianxia Show, and others, as live streaming e-commerce is expected to generate significant incremental benefits throughout the year [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market" which indicates an expected outperformance of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [2][5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the launch of the "Qiyuan Critical Care Model" by Tencent in collaboration with Mindray Medical, marking the first global application of a critical care AI model. This initiative is expected to enhance productivity by transitioning from quantity to quality in AI applications within the medical field [2]. - The model integrates vast patient data to create digital profiles, enabling deep analysis and predictive insights for medical conditions, thus assisting doctors in making rapid decisions [2]. - The report emphasizes the significant data resources and technological capabilities of leading companies like Tencent, which provide a robust foundation for the AI model, enhancing its application in clinical settings [2]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On December 27, Tencent announced the launch of the "Qiyuan Critical Care Model" in partnership with Mindray Medical, with pilot applications already in place at Zhejiang University First Affiliated Hospital's ICU [2]. Model Functionality - The model is designed to perform several key functions including rapid patient history analysis, efficient medical record generation, precise knowledge retrieval, and personalized treatment recommendations, significantly improving efficiency and accuracy in medical decision-making [2]. AI Application Expansion - The report notes that the collaboration between top tech companies and healthcare giants is accelerating the application of AI in various sectors, particularly in healthcare, where the model is expected to broaden the scope and depth of AI applications [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Tencent Holdings, NetEase, InnoCare Pharma, BlueFocus Communication Group, and others, as they are positioned to benefit from the advancements in AI applications across industries [2].