电力设备及新能源 行业周报 宁德时代发布 2024 年半年度财报，多地海风项 目推动提速【第 29 期】 投资要点 新能源汽车：本周，特斯拉宣布 4680 电池已开始装配 Cybertruck 进行验证， 并首次提出 Q4 实现干法正极量产的目标。宁德时代洛阳基地一期 30GWh 项目 电池工厂宣布投产，首个麒麟电池完成封装。鹏辉能源拟投资约 18 亿元建设年 产 10GWh 储能电芯及系统集成项目，和投资约 5 亿元建设年产 1GWh 的半固 态电池项目。亿纬锂能与英飞凌科技有限公司签署合作备忘录，在新一代的电池 管理系统中，英飞凌将提供整套芯片解决方案，覆盖微控制器单元、模拟前端等 多个关键组件。LG 新能源发布 2024 年第二季度财报，2024Q2 实现营收 6.16 万亿韩元（约 322.17 亿元），环比+0.5%，同比-29.8%；营业利润 1953 亿韩 元（约 10.21 亿元），环比+24.2%，同比-57.6%。宁德时代发布 2024 年半年 度财报，2024H1 实现营收 1667.67 亿元，同比-11.88%；归母净利润 228.65 亿元，同比-10.37%；毛利率 26.53% ...

十年上市发展稳，百亿收官再启航 投资要点 十年耕耘发展稳，百亿收官再启航。今世缘前身是江苏省淮安市高沟酒厂，是江苏 省传统名酒"三沟一河"的构成之一。2024 年是今世缘上市 10 周年、"国缘"品 牌成立 20 周年，也是实现营收过百亿、继续攀登下一个百亿高峰的里程碑。公司 营业收入自 2014 年上市时的 24 亿元增加至 2023 年的 101 亿元，CAGR 为 17.3%， 归母净利润自 2014 年的 6.41 亿增加至 2023 年的 31.36 亿元，CAGR 为 19.2%。 百亿之后公司继续坚定发展，向 2025 年营收 150 亿的新征程继续迈进。 产品上：三大品牌定位明确，产品矩阵覆盖多档价格带。公司始终瞄准消费者心理， 以"缘"文化为核心打造品牌，为产品赋予缘文化的独到内涵，以酒结缘，以缘兴 酒。基于缘文化这一立足点，公司打造形成"国缘"、"今世缘"、"高沟"三大 品牌，产品进行差异化定位，覆盖价格带范围宽，适应不同大环境，打法灵活。公 司上市前后正处于白酒调整期，高端白酒消费尤其是政商消费需求下滑，公司重点 推广中档品牌"今世缘"，瞄准日常喜宴场景；2017 年后江苏省内次高端价格 ...

电气设备 行业快报 国网电网投资规划创新高，关注特高压与配网 智能化 事件点评 国家电网公司 26 日披露，为加快构建新型电力系统，促进新能源高质量发展， 推动大规模设备更新改造，国家电网公司今年全年电网投资将首次超过 6000 亿 元，今年比去年新增 711 亿元。 电网投资创新高，特高压持续景气。电网投资覆盖产业链长、见效快，成为逆 周期投资、拉动增长的重要选项，7 月 26 日，国网表示 24 年全年电网投资将 首次超过 6000 亿（同比新增 711 亿元），同比增加将超 10%，投资增速创 2015 年来新高。新增投资主要用于特高压交直流工程建设、加强县域电网与大电网联 系、电网数字化智能化升级等。此外，7 月 17 日，南网表示正全面推进电网设 备大规模更新，预计 2024 年至 2027 年，大规模设备更新投资规模将达到 1953 亿元。其中，2024 年年中将增加投资 40 亿元，全年投资规模达到 404 亿元， 力争到 2027 年实现电网设备更新投资规模较 2023 年增长 52%。1-6 月份，全 国主要发电企业电源工程完成投资 3441 亿元，同比增长 2.5%；电网工程完成 投资 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [36] Core Views - The company is implementing a "dual main business" strategy, focusing on both metal packaging and composite current collectors, with the latter expected to become a second growth curve [37][42] - The composite current collector business is projected to generate over 3.6 billion yuan in annual revenue upon full production [37] - The company's traditional metal packaging business is expected to stabilize, while the composite current collector business is set to expand rapidly [52] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 1.747 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.253 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 23.9% [53] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 14 million yuan in 2023 to 48 million yuan in 2026 [53] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 11.9% in 2023 to 16.5% in 2026 [53] Industry and Market Analysis - The metal packaging industry in China achieved a cumulative revenue of 150.562 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 0.34% [151] - The beer canning rate in China increased from 16.2% in 2009 to 32.5% in 2022, indicating significant growth potential for metal packaging in the beverage industry [160] - The composite current collector market is expected to benefit from its advantages in energy density, cost reduction, and safety, with potential applications in lithium-ion batteries [148][171][178] Company Operations and Strategy - The company plans to invest 3.089 billion yuan in the composite current collector project, aiming to build 134 composite copper foil production lines and 10 composite aluminum foil production lines [37] - The company's traditional business, particularly beverage can lids, has seen significant capacity expansion, with production capacity increasing from 1.381 billion pieces in 2017 to 10.344 billion pieces in 2022 [105] - The company has a diversified customer base, with the top five customers accounting for only 18.28% of total sales in 2022, reducing dependency on any single client [128] Risks and Challenges - The commercialization of composite current collectors may face challenges due to the need for coordinated development across the industry chain [6] - The company's profitability has been impacted by fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly aluminum and tinplate, which account for a significant portion of production costs [79][117][119]

http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 （2）本周暂无新股将开启申购。 （3）以中期投资来看，我们建议关注鼎泰高科、致尚科技、纳睿雷达等个股的可 能投资机会。 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 07 月 28 日 \n高低切升温背景下资金更为强调性价比，但板块结构性活跃特征未改 | 策略类●证券研究报告 \n新股专题 | | 投资要点 | 分析师 李蕙 | | 新股周观点：上周整体市场风险偏好出现剧烈波动，此前交易周活跃的科创及北证 | SAC 执业证书编号： S0910519100001 | | 新股次新出现 ...

震荡筑底后八月可能有反弹机会 定期报告 当前来看，A 股震荡筑底后短期可能有反弹机会。（1）经济和盈利短期延续弱修 复趋势。一是短期经济预期偏弱但可能边际改善：首先地产销售和消费低迷、外需 可能走弱，经济修复预期偏弱；其次近期 3000 亿大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换 新政策落地，消费和制造业投资增速可能有所回升。二是中报业绩显示 A 股盈利回 升趋势延续。（2）短期政策和外部冲击偏正面。一是三中全会后保增长相关政策 可能加速出台和落地：首先，近三届三中全会召开后，短期内政策均密集落地；其 次，今年三中全会重点强调的发展新质生产力、扩大内需等相关的政策短期可能加 速落地。二是海外降息预期上升，短期中美摩擦风险有限：首先，美联储 9 月大概 率降息；其次，美国大选竞争白热化，短期内中美摩擦风险上升的概率较低。 红利和科技占优会发生变化吗？ 2024.7.20 深化改革，关注科技和扩内需 2024.7.19 特 朗 普 若 胜 选 ， 对 市 场 有 何 影 响 ？ 2024.7.15 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用，政策超预期变化，经济修复不及预期。 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S091052308 ...

食品饮料 行业周报 茅台市场工作会召开，巴黎奥运会盛大开幕 投资要点 行情回顾：上周食品饮料（申万）行业整体下跌 6.34%，在 31 个子行业中排名 第 30 位，跑输上证综指 3.27pct，跑输创业板指 2.51pct。二级（申万）子板块 对比，上周子板块中白酒表现较差，跌幅分别为 7.19%，三级子行业软饮料表 现相对较好，下跌 2.15%，白酒为三级子行业中表现最差，下跌 7.19%。 上周大事： 茅台召开 24 年半年市场工作会议："道术"并用，穿越行业周期。7 月 23 日， 贵州茅台召开 2024 年半年度市场工作会议，会议全面总结茅台酒上半年市场营 销工作，并进一步分析发展面临的"时"与"势"，明确市场工作的"道"与"术"， 为成功穿越本轮行业周期凝聚共识。看清"时"与"势"，要正确认识"三期叠 加"复杂市场形势下蕴含的本质规律。从外部看，宏观经济周期调整导致的白酒 消费场景转换是"必然的"，行业调整周期是"去库存"的良性循环。从内部看， 茅台酒兼具的社交、收藏等属性，及在此基础上形成的溢价空间，是来源于产品 价值、品牌价值的持续提升，也造就了茅台酒自身的"发展周期"。在"三期叠 加"复杂市 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-B" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next 6 months with expected investment returns leading the CSI 300 Index by more than 15% [22][53] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from brand renewal and marketing activities, including the appointment of a new global brand ambassador and Olympic-related promotions, which are likely to boost sales in the short term [9][47] - The company's strategy for 2024 focuses on optimizing store operations and improving single-store performance, shifting from rapid expansion to a more refined approach [21] - Long-term growth is supported by the company's efforts to build a "food ecosystem" through new projects and investments in the food and beverage sector [21] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 7.236 billion yuan in 2024 to 8.902 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 10.4% and 11.4% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [22][52] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 649 million yuan in 2024 to 910 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 19% and 18% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [22][52] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 14x in 2024 to 10x in 2026, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [14][22] Business Breakdown - The company's main business, leisure braised food sales, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% and 10% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, driven by store optimization and improved single-store performance [48] - Franchise management revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.9% and 5.8% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a slight decline in 2024 due to store adjustments [11] - Other main businesses, including modern agriculture and supply chain services, are expected to grow at a CAGR of 20% in both 2025 and 2026 [36] Comparable Company Valuation - The company's valuation is relatively low compared to peers, with a 2024 PE ratio of 14x, lower than the average of 18x for comparable companies [14][28] - The company's PE ratio is at the 5th percentile of its historical range since 2017, indicating a historically low valuation [14] Profitability and Growth - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 24.8% in 2023 to 29% in 2026, driven by cost control and scale effects [48][52] - Net profit margin is projected to increase from 4.7% in 2023 to 10.2% in 2026, reflecting improved operational efficiency [52] - ROE is expected to rise from 4.6% in 2023 to 10.9% in 2026, indicating stronger profitability and capital utilization [52]

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= 41 图 2:利润总额、营业收入、营业成本当期同比(%) 40 -利润总额当期同比（%） 一营业成本当期同比（%） 一营业收入当期同比(%) - 30 20 10 o 20-06 20-09 20-12 21-03 21-06 21-09 21-12 22-0 03 24-06 23-09 23-12 24 22-12 23-03 23-06 -10 -20 -30 资料来源: Wind，华金证券研究所 ２ / 4 事件点评 3 / 4 分析师声明 免责声明： 下 下 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...