核心观点 ⚫ 价格价差变化： 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 政策有望驱动行业中长期修复，并持续看 好资源端景气超预期 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 我们看好行业自发性反内卷的聚酯瓶片行业及龙头公司万凯新材(301216，买入)。 石化行业看好中国石化(600028，买入)、荣盛石化(002493，买入)、恒力石化 (600346，买入)。农需资源端关注东方铁塔(002545，未评级)、云天化(600096，未 评级)、云图控股(002539，未评级)、兴发集团(600141，买入)。并持续建议关注农 药行业具备差异化增长逻辑的扬农化工(600486，增持)、润丰股份(301035，买 入)；以及受海外波动较小的内需和新材料替代市场机会，包括国光股份(002749， 买入)、华鲁恒升(600426，买入)、皇马科技(603181，买入)。 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 22 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | --- | --- | | | ...

聚酯瓶片：本轮扩产周期进入尾声，行业自律有望促 进盈利能力向上修复 化学原料 2025 年 07 月 20 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 化学原料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2025H1 制冷剂企业业绩断层增长， 向上趋势仍在延续—氟化工行业周 报》-2025.7.20 《制冷剂报价坚挺上行，趋势延续— 氟化工行业周报》-2025.7.6 《制冷剂商业模型逐渐定型，行情演 绎不断验证，向上趋势延续—氟化工 行业周报》-2025.6.22 ——化工"反内卷"系列报告（二） | 金益腾（分析师） | 龚道琳（分析师） | 蒋跨跃（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | gongdaolin@kysec.cn | jiangkuayue@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790522010001 | 证书编号：S0790523120001 | 聚酯瓶片需求稳健，全球供需错配促发上一轮 ...

| 证券代码：301216 | 证券简称：万凯新材 公告编号：2025-043 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码：123247 | 债券简称：万凯转债 | 万凯新材料股份有限公司 关于第一期员工持股计划锁定期届满的提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 万凯新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于 2024 年 1 月 12 日、 2024 年 1 月 29 日召开了第二届董事会第十次会议、2024 年第一次临时股东大会， 审议通过了《关于<万凯新材料股份有限公司第一期员工持股计划（草案）>及其 摘要的议案》、《关于<万凯新材料股份有限公司第一期员工持股计划管理办法> 的议案》等相关议案，同意公司实施第一期员工持股计划并授权董事会全权办理 相关事宜，具体内容详见公司于 2024 年 1 月 13 日、2024 年 1 月 30 日在巨潮资 讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的相关公告。 鉴于公司第一期员工持股计划锁定期将于 2025 年 7 月 19 日届满，根据《关 于上市公司实施员工持股计划试点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential recovery in polyester and refining sectors [2][14]. Core Insights - The EIA has revised down its natural gas price forecasts due to rising inventories, with the third-quarter price expected at $3.37 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and the fourth quarter at $3.99 MMBtu [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas inventories reached 30,060 billion cubic feet, significantly above the five-year average, indicating a clear accumulation trend [6]. - Oil prices have shown an upward trend, with Brent crude futures closing at $70.36 per barrel, reflecting a 3.02% increase week-over-week [18]. - The report anticipates a downward adjustment in oil prices due to widening supply-demand dynamics, although OPEC production cuts and shale oil cost support may maintain prices at mid-high levels [2][18]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Market - The EIA has lowered its natural gas price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2025, with average prices expected at $3.67 and $4.41 per MMBtu for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas production reached 11.68 billion cubic feet per day in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7 billion cubic feet per day [6]. - Solar power is increasingly substituting natural gas in electricity generation, with a projected 3% decline in gas-fired generation in 2025 [11]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $70.36 per barrel, while WTI prices rose to $68.45 per barrel, with weekly average prices showing gains of 2.34% and 2.44%, respectively [18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 426 million barrels, with gasoline inventories decreasing to 229 million barrels [19]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to 537, down 2 from the previous week and 47 year-on-year [29]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $13.70 per barrel, reflecting a decline of $0.31 per barrel week-over-week [50]. - The report notes that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices adjust downward, with domestic refining product margins still at low levels [48]. Polyester Sector - The report highlights a recovery expectation in the polyester sector, with improved profitability anticipated as supply-demand dynamics stabilize [14]. - Key companies to watch include Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, which are expected to benefit from improved competitive dynamics [14]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the upstream exploration and production sector, particularly offshore oil service firms like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering, which are projected to see performance improvements [14].

中证鹏元资信评估股份有限公司 中证鹏元公告【2025】336 号 中证鹏元关于关注万凯新材料股份有限公司部分生产装置 减产检修的公告 中证鹏元资信评估股份有限公司（以下简称"中证鹏元"）对万 凯新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"万凯新材"或"公司"，股票代 码：301216.SZ）及其发行的下述债券开展评级。除评级委托关系外， 中证鹏元及评级从业人员与公司不存在任何足以影响评级行为独立、 客观、公正的关联关系。 | 债券简称 | 上一次评级时间 | 上一次评级结果 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主体等级 | 债项等级 | 评级展望 | | 万凯转债 | 2025-06-17 | AA | AA | 稳定 | 公司于 2025 年 7 月 4 日发布《关于部分生产装置减产检修的公 告》，公司根据整体行业现状及公司生产经营需要，计划从近日开始 有序调减 PET 生产计划，并在减产期间组织设备检修维护，以保证恢 复生产时设备能充分高效地满足各项生产要求。本次减产检修涉及 PET 产能 60 万吨，占公司总产能的 20%，后续具体复产安排将根据装 置检修进展以及市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a "reverse involution" due to overcapacity, leading to a series of production cuts among companies, including Wankai New Materials, which plans to reduce its PET production capacity by 60,000 tons, accounting for 20% of its total capacity [1][4]. Industry Overview - The domestic PET capacity is projected to reach 20.58 million tons by May 2025, with an operating rate of 88.75%. The recent production cuts involve a total capacity of approximately 3.36 million tons, representing 16.3% of the total capacity, which may lower the operating rate to around 75% [1][3]. - The global demand for PET is expected to grow by approximately 8.2% in 2024, with domestic demand projected at around 8.62 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14%. Exports are expected to reach about 5.85 million tons, up 28.4% [3][4]. Company Actions - Wankai New Materials reported that the production cuts are a response to supply and demand issues within the industry, with several companies implementing similar measures. Despite a profitable first quarter, the company's profitability remains weak [1][2]. - Other companies, such as China Resources Chemical and Yisheng Petrochemical, have also announced production cuts, with reductions of 20% of their total capacity and a cumulative shutdown of 1 million tons, respectively [4][6]. Financial Performance - The PET industry has seen a significant decline in profitability since 2022 due to rapid capacity expansion and decreased operating rates. Wankai New Materials reported a net loss of 300 million yuan in 2022, while other major players also faced substantial losses [7][8]. - The industry experienced a boom during the pandemic years (2020-2022), with Wankai New Materials' net profit exceeding 1 billion yuan in 2022, but the subsequent capacity surge has led to a challenging market environment [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by an oversupply situation, with the domestic PET capacity nearing 50% of the global total. The leading companies in the industry hold a significant market share, with the top four companies accounting for over 80% of the total capacity [7]. - Despite production cuts, the market is still under pressure, with analysts indicating that the supply adjustments may provide limited support and are unlikely to fundamentally change the prevailing cost-driven market dynamics [4][8].

Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, guiding companies to improve product quality and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity for sustainable development [5] - The National Medical Products Administration has announced new measures to support the innovation and development of high-end medical devices, including guidance on the registration of products based on artificial intelligence and biomaterials [7] - The National Energy Administration held a meeting to emphasize the importance of resource survey pilot work for wind and photovoltaic power generation, aiming to enhance collaboration and accelerate progress [8] - The Ministry of Commerce is set to strengthen guidance on the export of second-hand vehicles, promoting healthy and orderly development in this sector [6] Company News - Hualing Steel announced that Xintai Life Insurance has acquired a stake in the company through the secondary market [9] - Vanke A has applied for a loan of no more than 6.249 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group and extended part of its existing loans [10] - Aerospace Chengtong has restored its procurement qualifications for military material engineering services [11] - Haowang Bio announced that its HW130 injection has completed Phase I clinical trials [12] - Donghu High-tech is participating in the establishment of the Donggao Frontier Phase II Fund [13] - Nuotai Bio expects a year-on-year increase of 32% to 45% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year, driven by significant growth in sales of peptide raw materials [14] - Wealth Trend's actual controller and chairman plans to reduce his holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [15] - Wankai New Materials announced that some production facilities will undergo maintenance, which is expected to significantly impact the company's overall performance [16] - Huaya Intelligent stated that it is engaged in the research and production of dry electrode rolling equipment systems for solid-state batteries [17] - Changling Hydraulic announced that its controlling shareholder is planning a change of control, leading to a suspension of its stock [18] - China Power Construction signed a contract for a mining and transportation project in Guinea worth approximately 5.063 billion yuan [19]

Key Points - The stock of Renle will be delisted on July 4, 2025 [1] - Hualing Steel has been acquired by Xintai Life Insurance with a shareholding ratio of 5% [1] - Vanke A has applied for a loan of up to 6.249 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group [1] - ST Yazhen has completed stock trading verification and will resume trading tomorrow [1] - Aerospace Chuangxin has regained procurement qualifications for military material engineering services [1] - Shangwei New Materials' controlling shareholder is planning a major event, and the stock will remain suspended [1] - Changling Hydraulic's actual controller is planning a change of control, and the stock will be suspended from tomorrow [1] - China Merchants Bank has been approved to establish China Merchants Financial Asset Investment Co., with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan [1] - Liugang Co. has experienced a potential irrational speculation risk with its stock [1] Operating Performance - Brothers Technology expects a net profit increase of 325% to 431.25% year-on-year for the first half of the year [1] - Huayin Power anticipates a net profit increase of 175 million to 215 million yuan year-on-year for the first half [1] - Xutian Salt Industry expects a net profit decrease of 76.34% to 80.29% year-on-year for the first half [1] - Juguang Technology expects a net loss of 42 million to 54 million yuan for the first half [1] - Beibu Gulf Port reported a cargo throughput of 31.1158 million tons in June, a year-on-year increase of 2.56% [1] - China Nuclear Power generated 115.104 billion kWh of electricity in the first half, a year-on-year increase of 15.92% [1] - Changyuan Power completed a power generation of 16.715 billion kWh in the first half, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3% [1] - Poly Developments signed contracts worth 29.011 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year decrease of 30.95% [1] Shareholding Changes - Jingye Da's actual controller plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3% [1] - Deyi Cultural Creation's actual controller Wu Tifang plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3% [1] - Caifu Trend's actual controller and chairman plan to reduce holdings by no more than 3% [1] - Annuo Qi's actual controller plans to reduce holdings by no more than 2% [1] - Suotong Development's actual controller and concerted actors plan to reduce holdings by no more than 2.21% [1] - Dingsheng Co.'s controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by no more than 1.71% [1] - Weitang Industrial's controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by no more than 1.95% [1] - Jinlong Automobile's Fujian Investment Group plans to reduce holdings by no more than 1% [1] - Wanye Enterprises' Guosheng Capital plans to reduce holdings by no more than 0.2% [1] - Zhonggang Luonai's Guoxin Shuangbai No.1 plans to reduce holdings by no more than 0.5% [1] - Funeng Technology's Shenzhen Anyan Investment plans to reduce holdings by no more than 1% [1] - Ankang Technology's Shenzhen High-tech Investment plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3% [1] - Donglai Technology plans to reduce no more than 1.2048 million repurchased shares [1] - Qujiang Cultural Tourism's controlling shareholder's 12 million shares are set to be auctioned [1] - Hesheng Silicon Industry's controlling shareholder plans to exchange no more than 1% of shares for ETF shares [1] Contract Awards - Boshi Co. signed an outsourcing service contract worth 109 million yuan with Guangxi Petrochemical [1] - Zhongyou Engineering's subsidiary signed a contract worth 294 million USD for the Atavi GMP pipeline project with Total Energy [1] - China Electric Power Construction's subsidiary signed a mining transportation project contract worth approximately 5.063 billion yuan [1] Other Developments - Xingxin New Materials plans to invest in a project with an annual output of 153,000 tons of polyolefin amine series products [4] - Haishun New Materials plans to acquire Sirewen Company to expand the application of electronic film materials in the semiconductor field [4] - Wankai New Materials is undergoing production reduction and maintenance, which is expected to significantly impact overall operating performance [4] - Donghu High-tech is participating in the establishment of the Donggao Frontier Phase II Fund to improve the development model of the park operation sector [4] - Jiete Biological plans to participate in the establishment of an industrial fund primarily investing in early and mid-stage biopharmaceutical projects [4] Asset Sales - Nord Shares plans to sell 70% equity of its wholly-owned subsidiary Jiangsu Lianxin for 70 million yuan [5]

Group 1 - Wan Kai New Materials plans to orderly reduce PET production and conduct equipment maintenance, affecting 600,000 tons of PET capacity, which accounts for 20% of the company's total capacity [1] - The reduction is a response to industry overcapacity and losses, with peers also deciding to limit production to reduce inventory [1][4] - The company reported a loss last year due to intensified competition and a more than 30% decline in average processing fees, despite stable sales volume [1] Group 2 - In May, China Resources Materials indicated that PET capacity is expected to remain in phase overcapacity until 2025, focusing on cost reduction and quality improvement [2] - The polyester bottle chip capacity is projected to increase from 16.61 million tons at the end of 2023 to 20.43 million tons, a nearly 23% year-on-year increase [3] - Wan Kai New Materials is expanding its overseas capacity with a 300,000-ton production base in Nigeria and plans for a 750,000-ton base in Indonesia [3] Group 3 - In 2024, the company's overseas business revenue reached 6.239 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.61%, accounting for 36.21% of total revenue [4] - Major companies, including Hainan Yisheng and China Resources Materials, have announced production halts to address domestic overcapacity and optimize resource allocation [4]

Group 1 - Shengde Xintai won a bid for a thermal power steel pipe project worth approximately 217 million yuan, accounting for 8.15% of its audited revenue for 2024 [1] - High-speed Electric's subsidiary won a project for the Shanghai-Nanjing-Hefei high-speed railway, with a bid amount of 71.76 million yuan [1] - Cangge Mining's subsidiary received a construction permit for a lithium-boron mining project, with a construction area of 106,900 square meters [2] Group 2 - China Electric Power Construction signed a mining transportation project contract in Guinea worth approximately 5.063 billion yuan, with a total duration of about 72 months [3] - Guobang Pharmaceutical's subsidiary completed the registration of an equity investment fund focusing on strategic emerging industries [4] - Deshi Co. obtained two invention patents related to oil and gas field development [5][26] Group 3 - Xue Tian Salt Industry expects a significant decrease in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a decline of 76.34% to 80.29% [6] - Rundu Co. received a drug registration certificate for moxifloxacin hydrochloride tablets, used for treating various bacterial infections [7] - China Nuclear Power reported a 15.65% increase in power generation in the first half of the year, with nuclear power generation up by 12.01% [8] Group 4 - Suqian Liansheng obtained two invention patents related to wastewater treatment methods [9] - Boshi Co. signed a 109 million yuan operation and maintenance service contract for solid product packaging [11] - *ST Sailong's subsidiary received a drug registration certificate for torasemide injection, used for various medical conditions [13] Group 5 - North Bay Port reported a 10.95% increase in cargo throughput for the first half of 2025, with container throughput also showing growth [14] - Kaiwei Te expects a revenue increase of 56.17% to 90.87% for the first half of 2025 [15] - Wankai New Materials plans to reduce production and conduct maintenance on 60,000 tons of PET capacity, affecting overall performance [16] Group 6 - Haiwang Bio's HW130 injection successfully completed Phase I clinical trials, showing good safety and tolerability [19] - Zhenai Meijia received a total of 22.8 million yuan in compensation for land acquisition, which will significantly impact its 2025 performance [20] - Changyuan Electric reported a 23.58% decrease in power generation in June, with a notable decline in thermal power generation [21] Group 7 - Shouxiangu's subsidiary completed the registration of two health food products [22] - Kailun Co. announced the resignation of its deputy general manager and board secretary [23] - Xibu Muye reported a 2.15% year-on-year increase in fresh milk production in June [24] Group 8 - Deshi Co. obtained two invention patents related to oil and gas field development [26] - Jingwei Huikai plans to acquire a 12.44% stake in Nuo Si Micro for 149 million yuan [27] - Electric Alloy completed the registration of its subsidiary in Mexico [29] Group 9 - Meinuohua expects a net profit increase of 142.84% to 174.52% for the first half of 2025 [30] - Guizhou Moutai repurchased approximately 3.38 million shares, accounting for 0.2692% of its total share capital [31][32] - Warner Pharmaceutical received approval for the listing application of a raw material drug for treating respiratory diseases [34] Group 10 - Yuan Dong Bio's independent director is under investigation for serious violations [35] - Dash Intelligent signed a contract for a smart project worth 11.88 million yuan [36] - Dayou Energy plans to transfer 586,500 tons of coal production capacity replacement indicators [37] Group 11 - Foton Motor reported a 150.96% increase in new energy vehicle sales in the first half of 2025 [39] - Renfu Pharmaceutical's shareholder plans to increase its stake by 1% to 2% [40] - Zongshen Power expects a net profit increase of 70% to 100% for the first half of 2025 [42] Group 12 - Yingboer plans to sell its wholly-owned subsidiary for 239 million yuan [44] - Changan Automobile reported a 1.59% increase in total vehicle sales in the first half of 2025 [46] - Fulian Precision signed a cooperation framework agreement with Sichuan Development Longmang [48] Group 13 - Nengte Technology plans to repurchase shares worth 300 million to 500 million yuan [50] - Longsoft Technology's controlling shareholder donated 3.43% of the company's shares [51] - Data Port's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2% [52]