行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 相关研究 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 研究支持 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 联系人 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 25 日 供给增量上调，EIA 预计今年全球 原油有 283 万桶/天的供应过剩 看好 ——石油化工行业周报(2026/1/19—2026/1/25) 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 三大机构上调石油供给预测，EIA 预计今年全球原油将有 283 万桶/天的供应过剩。价格 端来看，EIA 上调 2026 年原油价格预测，下调 2026 年天然气价格预测：EIA 预计 2026、2027 年原油均价为 56、54 美元/桶；EIA 预计 202 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry is expected to undergo continuous revaluation due to its high energy consumption and carbon emissions, particularly as China approaches its carbon peak during the 14th Five-Year Plan. The supply side may face strict controls, leading to potential reductions in production quotas. The demand for PVC in developing regions such as Africa and Latin America is anticipated to drive growth, despite the challenges posed by domestic production constraints [2][7] - The petrochemical industry is experiencing an upward trend in profitability, driven by significant price increases in key products such as butadiene rubber, PX, PTA, styrene, and ethylene glycol. The market's expectations for improved demand in 2026 are contributing to this positive outlook, with potential adjustments in operational strategies by leading companies likely to reshape supply and demand dynamics [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report recommends several companies across various sub-sectors, including: - MDI leader: Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) - PVC-related companies: Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated), Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386, Not Rated) - Refining sector leaders: Sinopec (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy) - Phosphate chemical companies benefiting from energy storage growth: Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895, Not Rated), Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) - Oxalic acid sector: Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3]

证券日报网讯 1月23日，万凯新材在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司当前拥有300万吨瓶级PET 产能和60万吨MEG乙二醇产能。近期相关产品价格短期内有一定幅度的上涨，同时PET加工费水平也有 所回暖，预计对公司业绩有一定的正向影响。长期来看，公司业绩主要受PET产品加工差影响，请投资 者注意投资风险。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

1月22日，万凯新材涨0.21%，成交额4.25亿元。两融数据显示，当日万凯新材获融资买入额2640.53万 元，融资偿还5809.09万元，融资净买入-3168.56万元。截至1月22日，万凯新材融资融券余额合计5.60 亿元。 融资方面，万凯新材当日融资买入2640.53万元。当前融资余额5.60亿元，占流通市值的4.06%，融资余 额超过近一年60%分位水平，处于较高位。 融券方面，万凯新材1月22日融券偿还500.00股，融券卖出0.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额0.00 元；融券余量1.67万股，融券余额39.73万元，低于近一年50%分位水平，处于较低位。 资料显示，万凯新材料股份有限公司位于浙江省嘉兴市海宁市尖山新区闻澜路15号，成立日期2008年3 月31日，上市日期2022年3月29日，公司主营业务涉及聚酯材料的研发、生产、销售。主营业务收入构 成为：瓶级PET97.51%，大有光PET2.04%，其他(补充)0.44%，其他PET0.00%。 截至12月31日，万凯新材股东户数2.90万，较上期增加10.87%；人均流通股18899股，较上期减少 9.80%。2025年1月-9月，万凯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a collective shift in business strategies driven by multiple factors, leading to a recovery in industry prosperity [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The long-standing focus on market share in China's chemical industry is being transformed, with companies now facing increased barriers to entry due to supply-side reforms, environmental checks, and dual carbon goals [1] - Internal policy adjustments and external anti-dumping investigations are signaling a necessary change in the expectations surrounding market share [2] Group 2: Business Strategy Shifts - Companies are moving towards sacrificing existing market share to enhance short-term return rates, as merely halting expansion is no longer sufficient to address inventory and excess capacity [2] - The change in business strategies is primarily driven by shifts in the mindset of entrepreneurs and management, marking a significant departure from previous industry recovery patterns [2] Group 3: Selection Criteria for Investment - The preferred selection criteria for the industry include the strength of expansion constraints and the depth of leading companies' advantages, with stronger constraints leading to lower expectations for market share-driven growth [3] - The depth of leading companies' advantages not only constrains industry expansion but also determines the potential recovery in industry return rates [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended investment opportunities include: - MDI: Wanhua Chemical (600309) - Petrochemicals: Sinopec (600028), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), Hengli Petrochemical (600346) - Phosphate Chemicals: Chuanheng Shares (002895), Yuntianhua (600096), Xingfa Group (600141) - PVC: Zhongtai Chemical (002092), Xinjiang Tianye (600075), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618), Tianyuan Shares (002386) - Polyester Bottle Chips: Wankai New Materials (301216) [4]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is undergoing a strategic shift from a focus on market share to profitability, driven by internal policy adjustments and external pressures such as anti-dumping investigations [4][7][11] - The report identifies five key sectors with investment potential: MDI, petrochemicals, phosphate chemicals, PVC, and polyester bottle flakes, emphasizing the importance of leading companies with significant market share and competitive advantages [4][12][55] Group 1: Industry Trends - The chemical industry has historically prioritized market share, but recent policies and market conditions are prompting a shift towards profitability [7][13] - The supply-side reforms and dual carbon goals have raised entry barriers, leading to increased industry concentration without curbing expansion ambitions [7][13] - The trend of sacrificing market share for improved returns is becoming more prevalent, as companies recognize the need to adapt to changing market dynamics [31][11] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - MDI: The leading company, Wanhua Chemical, is expected to benefit significantly from its strategic shift towards profitability, with potential for substantial earnings growth in 2026 [56] - Petrochemicals: Major players like Sinopec and Rongsheng Petrochemical are undergoing operational adjustments that could reshape industry trends [57] - Phosphate Chemicals: The sector is poised for revaluation due to a tight supply-demand balance and increasing recognition of phosphate's value in energy security [59][60] - PVC: The industry faces strong supply constraints, with emerging markets driving demand growth despite domestic challenges [60] - Polyester Bottle Flakes: The sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability due to high industry concentration and strategic production limitations by leading firms [61]

Core Viewpoint - WanKai New Materials (301216.SZ) expects a significant turnaround in its financial performance for 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 156.3 million to 203 million yuan, marking a shift from loss to profit [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 37 million to 55.5 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, indicating substantial improvement in its core business [1] - The polyester bottle chip production capacity expansion is nearing completion, and the industry is experiencing a recovery in demand [1] Group 2: Operational Strategy - The company is focusing on cost control and adjusting production and sales rhythm, which has contributed to its return to profitability [1] - The MEG Phase I project, with a capacity of 600,000 tons, is set to commence production in the second half of the year, enhancing the company's operational efficiency [1] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - A collective agreement among major players in the bottle chip industry to reduce production by 20% has led to a decrease in social inventory and an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [1] - The company is actively participating in industry self-regulation to restore order and mitigate cyclical risks associated with single-product dependency [2] Group 4: Raw Material and Capacity Expansion - The ethylene glycol project is expected to start production in Q3 2025, bolstering the company's raw material supply and reducing cost volatility [2] - The overseas capacity expansion is progressing smoothly, with plans to launch production in Africa starting Q2 2026, which will help mitigate anti-dumping impacts and diversify market risks [2] Group 5: New Product Development - The company is increasing its exploration of high-value-added products, such as rPET and oxalic acid, which align with long-term trends in product upgrading and the renewable energy sector [2] - The rPET capacity is scheduled to begin construction in Q1 2026, with production expected to commence in Q1 2027, contributing to a more resilient product portfolio [2] Group 6: Strategic Partnerships - The company has invested in Lingxin Qiaoshou and holds a board seat, establishing a collaborative relationship that includes business cooperation [3] - A joint venture, Zhejiang Light Magnesium Intelligent Plastic Technology Co., Ltd., has been formed to engage in high-performance materials processing and precision injection molding for the robotics industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - Wankai New Materials (301216) has reported a turnaround in its financial performance, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 156-203 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, compared to a loss in the previous year, indicating a significant value reconstruction behind this performance [3][4]. Group 1: Business Model and Market Position - Wankai operates as a PET material supplier, playing a crucial yet low-profile role in everyday consumer products such as beverage containers and packaging materials [3][4]. - The company has established a stable supply relationship with leading beverage and tea brands through its core product, food-grade PET, which has resulted in predictable cash flow and stable orders [7]. - Despite operational efficiency, Wankai's valuation has been constrained due to the cyclical nature of PET pricing, which is influenced by crude oil and energy costs, limiting its perceived growth potential [8][9]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments and Future Directions - Wankai is undergoing systematic adjustments to its business structure, aiming to enhance its profit sources beyond the cyclical nature of its traditional operations [11][12]. - The company is expanding upstream by launching a MEG project in Sichuan, creating a complete industrial chain from natural gas to polyester, and is also diversifying its market presence internationally to mitigate regional risks [12][14]. - The core business remains focused on PET, but the strategic adjustments aim to smooth out cyclical fluctuations and improve operational resilience [14]. Group 3: New Business Paths - Wankai is exploring three new business paths starting in 2025, which include transitioning from petrochemical cycles to natural gas chemical tracks, thereby leveraging low-cost natural gas as a core resource [16][17]. - The company is also venturing into recycled circular materials through collaboration with Carbios, which allows for the recycling of PET back to its original molecular state, thus changing the pricing logic away from oil dependency [24][26]. - Additionally, Wankai is targeting high-demand application scenarios, such as materials for robotics and 3D printing, which are less influenced by crude oil prices and more dependent on technological advancements [28][30]. Group 4: Market Perception and Valuation - The capital market's perception of Wankai has shifted significantly since early 2025, reflecting a growing understanding of its business structure and development paths [33]. - Future valuation will depend on the successful monetization of new business models rather than merely the transition itself, indicating a migration in pricing strategies [34][35].

1月15日，万凯新材（301216）发布最新业绩报告，预计2025年度全年归属上市公司股东净利润约为 1.56-2.03亿元，相比于上年同期的亏损状况，实现了扭亏为盈。 对于大众来说，"万凯新材"是一个并不具备强烈辨识度的名字。但在日常生活中，这家公司却以一种几 乎"隐形"的方式，频繁出现在我们的消费场景里：农夫山泉的瓶体、星巴克和瑞幸不断更换的透明杯 材、新茶饮高峰期大量消耗的吸管与包装材料，背后都绕不开这家PET材料供应商。 这正是万凯过去长期所处的位置：在消费链条中高度存在，在公众认知中却极为低调。 而在最新披露的业绩与经营信息中，一个值得注意的变化正在发生：万凯的资源投向和业务重心，开始 出现系统性的调整。这种调整尚未完全体现在利润数字上，但已经在资本开支结构、技术路线选择以及 中长期业务布局中逐渐显现。 也正因为如此，一个问题开始变得重要：当一家长期被视为"周期型材料制造商"的企业，开始主动重塑 自身利润结构时，市场是否仍然可以沿用旧有的判断方式去看待它？ 大众熟悉的"陌生面孔" 开始重新生长 万凯新材发布最新业绩报告： 业绩转正背后的价值重构。 从商业逻辑上看，万凯走的是一条高度成熟、但并不复杂的 ...

两融数据显示，该股最新（1月19日）两融余额为6.16亿元，其中，融资余额为6.15亿元，近10日减少 4736.80万元，环比下降7.15%。 公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入124.36亿元，同比下降5.43%，实现净利润 7759.44万元，同比增长183.45%，基本每股收益为0.1500元，加权平均净资产收益率1.45%。 1月16日公司发布2025年业绩预告，预计实现净利润1.56亿元至2.03亿元，同比变动区间为 152.10%~167.67%。（数据宝） 万凯新材股价创出历史新高，截至10:34，该股上涨4.34%，股价报23.78元，成交量1337.81万股，成交 金额3.13亿元，换手率2.44%，该股最新A股总市值达137.97亿元，该股A股流通市值130.39亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，万凯新材所属的基础化工行业，目前整体跌幅为0.43%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有165只，涨停的有江天化学、宏柏新材等10只。股价下跌的有261只，跌幅居前的有神剑股份、 博菲电气、东材科技等，跌幅分别为9.99%、9.92%、8.43%。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...