http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 08 月 26 日 \n歉收同时支出加速，国债融资还需加力 | 宏观类 ● 证券研究报告 \n事件点评 | | 财政数据点评（2024.7） | 分析师 秦泰 | | 投资要点 | SAC 执业证书编号： S0910523080002 | | 一般公共预算：高基数消退但低通胀仍导致财政收入负增长，去年增发国债对应的 | qintai@huajinsc.cn 周欣然 | | 预算内水利工程投资拉动财政支出加快。7 月一般公共预算收入同比跌幅较 6 月收 | 报告联系人 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn | | 窄 0.7 个百分点至 -1.9% ，但仍然低迷，明显低于年度预算增速。随着 2023 年上 ...

Jackson Hole 会后，美联储年内降息 100BP？ 事件点评 投资要点 鲍威尔在 Jackson Hole 年会上发表讲话称当前美国的劳动力市场和通胀数据已经令美联储 所面临的风险平衡发生了变化，明确传递出即将降息的信号，但仍不愿提供降息幅度的定量 指引，并仍为调整政策立场留有退路。当地时间 8 月 23 日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席 2024 年 Jackson Hole 全球央行年会并发表题为"重估货币政策的有效性和传导（Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy）"的讲话，称当前美国"通胀率已经大 幅下降"、"劳动力市场不再过热"的状况令美联储"双重使命所面临的风险平衡也发生了 变化"，两年多时间以来首度公开宣称"调整政策的时刻已经到来（the time has come for policy to adjust）"，传递出较 7 月 FOMC 会议声明更明确的降息信号，预示着美联储 9 月 会议开始本轮降息周期基本成为定局。但由于疫情以来美联储改为基于近期数据而非对未来 预测的滞后性决策框架，鲍威尔在讲话中仍 ...

部分周期和成长行业中报可能占优 主题报告 投资要点 中报预告视角：已披露的可比口径下部分消费和科技行业中报盈利增速占优。（1） 披露率较低下中报业绩增速呈现继续回落：截至 2024/8/23，全部 A 股中报披露率 为 33.5%，可比口径下已披露的 A 股中报盈利增速为-16.4%，较全部 A 股一季报 盈利增速下降。（2）部分消费、科技、周期行业中报盈利增速占优。一是食品饮 料、轻工制造、农林牧渔、电子、通信等行业已披露中报业绩增速排名靠前；二是 交运、钢铁、石油石化、基础化工等周期行业已披露中报业绩均是正增长；三是传 媒、地产、建材、电新等部分科技和地产链相关行业已披露中报业绩增速排名靠后。 局部新热点或难掩周期变盘可能正在开启， 建议暂时加强博弈防守-华金证券新股周报 2024.8.18 工业企业利润增速视角：上半年部分上游原材料和中游制造行业利润增速较高。（1） 缩量后 A 股会怎么走？ 2024.8.17 新股局部热点或依然有所表现，但节奏把握 难 度 明 显 增 加 - 华 金 证 券 新 股 周 报 2024.8.11 上半年工业企业利润增速较一季度增速小幅回落，预示着 A 股中报盈利增速较一 ...

食品饮料 行业周报 中报密集披露，关注报表质量 投资要点 行情回顾：上周食品饮料（申万）行业下跌 2.73%，在 31 个子行业中排名第 8 位，跑输上证综指 0.67pct，跑输创业板指 0.25pct。二级（申万）子板块对比， 上周除饮料乳品外各板块均有不同程度下跌，休闲食品跌幅最大，下跌 5.18%， 饮料乳品则上涨 0.95%。三级子行业中乳品涨幅领先，上涨 1.84%，其余子板 块均有所下跌，零食表现最差，下跌 5.22%。 上周大事： 上周多家企业披露中报，并进行中报业绩交流，我们对白酒行业的重点公司进 行分析。白酒行业因蓄水池的存在，报表与当期经营情况略有一定出入，因此 我们在分析白酒行业时，不仅要看公司报表的表观增速，还要关注现金流量表、 资产负债表等相关指标。具体分析如下： 今世缘（603369.SH）：24H1 公司实现营收 73.04 亿元，同比+22.36%，归母 净利润 24.61 亿元，同比+20.08%，其中 24Q2 公司实现营收 26.33 亿元，同比 +21.52%，归母净利润 9.29 亿元，同比+16.86%。24Q2 现金回款 24.96 亿元， 同比+7.13%，销 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at Buy-A [1] Core Views - The company has solidified its leading position in the solar storage industry, with a continuous enhancement of its global influence [1] - The company reported a revenue of 31.02 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing an 8.38% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 4.96 billion yuan, up 13.89% year-on-year [2] - The inverter business showed stable growth with revenues of 13.09 billion yuan, a 12.63% increase year-on-year, and a gross margin of 37.62%, up 1.70 percentage points [2] - The energy storage business demonstrated significant improvement in profitability, with revenues of 7.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.30% year-on-year, but a gross margin of 40.08%, up 12.61 percentage points [3] - The company has expanded its global service network to over 490 locations and is actively pursuing market opportunities in Europe, America, Australia, and China [2][3] Financial Data and Valuation - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 141.23 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of about 108.31 billion yuan [4] - The company’s projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 89.78 billion yuan, 109.62 billion yuan, and 129.48 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 10.25 billion yuan, 12.05 billion yuan, and 14.81 billion yuan [6] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 4.94 yuan, 5.81 yuan, and 7.14 yuan, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13.8, 11.7, and 9.5, respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at Buy-A [1] Core Views - The company focuses on high-value applications, with significant revenue growth across various segments in Q2 2024, driven by stable consumer demand, a recovery in the memory market, and growth in AI and high-performance computing sectors [2][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 15.49 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, and a net profit of 620 million yuan, up 25.0% [2] - The company is expanding its advanced packaging capabilities and enhancing its strategic partnerships to build a more efficient automotive chip ecosystem [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.64 billion yuan, a 36.9% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 480 million yuan, reflecting a 25.5% year-on-year growth and a 258% quarter-on-quarter increase [2] - The revenue breakdown by application for Q2 2024 shows: Communications Electronics at 41.3%, Consumer Electronics at 27.2%, Computing Electronics at 15.7%, Industrial and Medical Electronics at 7.5%, and Automotive Electronics at 8.3% [2] Market Trends - The global semiconductor market is expected to return to growth in 2024, supported by demand recovery in consumer electronics, communications, and computing sectors [2][4] - The company is leveraging its advanced packaging technologies to cater to key application areas, including AI, automotive, and industrial sectors [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is increasing its R&D investments and focusing on high-value applications, with significant improvements in capacity utilization and net profit margins [3] - The company is actively pursuing strategic acquisitions to enhance its market share in the storage and computing electronics sectors [3][4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 33.07 billion yuan, 38.30 billion yuan, and 41.31 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.5%, 15.8%, and 7.9% respectively [6] - The net profit projections for the same period are 2.40 billion yuan, 3.00 billion yuan, and 3.51 billion yuan, with growth rates of 63.4%, 25.1%, and 16.7% respectively [6]

华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 业 证券研究报告 汽车行业报告 领先大市-A（维持） 2024年8月26日 智能驾驶系列报告（三）：Robotaxi商业化情况分析 分析师：李蕙 S0910519100001 联系人：曾晓婷、戴筝筝 本报告仅供华金证券客户中的专业投资者参考 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 核心观点 u 萝卜快跑目前为国内Robotaxi商业化进展最快的厂商，预计今年底可在武汉实现盈亏平衡。萝卜快跑目前已在国内12城开展Robotaxi运 营服务，其中包括6个全无人Robotaxi运营城市。在进展最快的武汉市，单车日均行驶里程达到300公里、收费约为1.78元/公里，日均收 入约为534元；而随着成本较低的第六代无人车量产并逐步投入运营，叠加规模效应拉动人力成本下降，日均成本有望持续改善。公司预 计年底可在武汉实现盈亏平衡、明年可全面进入盈利期。 u 国内Robotaxi企业主要分为自动驾驶互联网厂商及传统厂商两类，目前自动驾驶互联网厂商进展较为领先。从落地城市及测试里程来看， 以萝卜快跑、文远知行、小马智行为代表的互联网厂商商业化进展较为领先；而如T3出行及长安/东风/一汽、如祺出行及广汽集 ...

Group 1 - The core factors for rebounds in the bottom area are strong policies, positive external events, and liquidity easing [1][9][17] - Historical data shows that the average decline of the Shanghai Composite Index before hitting the bottom is 14.6%, while the average rebound after is 21.3% [1][9] - Major policies and external events have historically driven rebounds, such as the "Four Trillion" plan in November 2008 and the easing of pandemic restrictions in December 2022 [1][9][17] Group 2 - Current market conditions suggest potential for a rebound if policy measures are intensified, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 2854.37 points and a PE ratio around 27% [1][17] - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption and easing real estate restrictions are being implemented, including subsidies for equipment updates and consumer vouchers [1][17][19] - Economic indicators such as export growth and fixed asset investment have shown signs of pressure, indicating that stimulating domestic demand is a key focus of policy efforts [1][19] Group 3 - The liquidity environment remains loose, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and potential further easing in domestic monetary policy [1][19] - The report highlights that the short-term external risks are relatively low, with improved conditions in U.S.-China relations and a decrease in recession fears in the U.S. [1][19] - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy across technology, undervalued dividend stocks, and mid-to-low-end consumer sectors, based on historical performance trends [1][9][17]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The July FOMC meeting minutes indicate the Fed's concern over a rapidly weakening U.S. labor market, leading to a more dovish stance on monetary policy[1] - Some Fed members suggested initiating interest rate cuts during the meeting, reflecting a shift towards a more dovish signal compared to previous statements[1] - The U.S. labor statistics office significantly revised down the total new jobs data for the twelve months ending March 2024, reinforcing the Fed's cautious outlook on the labor market[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply, dropping below 101, marking its lowest level of the year following the dovish Fed signals[1] - Strong consumer demand in the U.S. is expected to potentially drive a rebound in employment, despite recent labor market weaknesses[1] - Retail sales in July showed a month-on-month increase of 1.0%, with durable goods contributing significantly to this growth, indicating robust consumer demand[1] Group 3: Japan's Economic Situation - Japan's core CPI fell to 1.9% in July, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first drop below 2% since October 2022[2] - The Bank of Japan's recent decision to implement a simultaneous tightening strategy of interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction may further suppress domestic consumption[2] - The external environment remains complex for China's monetary policy due to Japan's economic conditions and potential impacts on the U.S. dollar index[2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating of "Increase-A" [1][2] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth driven by cost advantages and product innovation, with a 22.17% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2024 [1] - The second growth curve, particularly in quail eggs, is expected to drive high growth, supported by channel expansion and supply chain optimization [2] - The company is focusing on a big product strategy and enhancing brand building, which is anticipated to lead to continued high profit growth [1][2] Revenue Analysis - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.17%, with Q2 revenue at 590 million, up 20.90% [1] - Revenue breakdown shows fish products at 703 million (+16.64%), poultry products at 258 million (+51.10%), and vegetable products at 38 million (+15.61%) [1] - The online and offline channel revenue proportions were 17.6% and 82.4%, with offline channels showing significant growth due to enhanced distributor development [1] Profit Analysis - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 30.76%, an increase of 4.25 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material prices and improved scale effects [1] - The net profit margin for Q2 2024 was 11.97%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.82 percentage points [1] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 2.592 billion, 3.214 billion, and 3.883 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.5%, 24.0%, and 20.8% respectively [2] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is adjusted to 299 million, 381 million, and 474 million, with growth rates of 42.6%, 27.6%, and 24.3% respectively [2] Long-term Outlook - The company is expected to continue enhancing its brand and product innovation, with a focus on expanding its SKU offerings and optimizing channel strategies [1][2] - The long-term strategy emphasizes quality and product strength to support channel expansion and improve brand power [2]