44 主题报告 图表目录 2 / 10 一、总目标：社会主义现代化强国和二〇三五目标的三大支柱 2）经济实力跃升，人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。十九届五中全会首次提出这 一目标，二十大报告中再度给予了确认和强调。国际上和理论研究界，往往将达到美国人均 GDP 的 30%以上作为中等发达国家水平的基本门槛。考虑到美国作为全球最大的经济体、最大的发 达国家和当前较为全面地掌握全球先进生产力的国家，仍在不断试图通过其国内经济政策组合和 对国际经济贸易规则进行有利于其本国经济的修改而试图获得相对较高的经济增长，2035 年达 到人均国内生产总值中等发达国家水平的目标，实际上同时意味着我国实际经济增速和本币汇率 尽量取得长期的同步高增是最为重要的。战后数十年的全球经济发展史已经充分证明，制造业高 图 1："制造业高级化"推动持续赶超，"过早去工业化"则陷入"中等收入陷阱" 资料来源：CEIC，华金证券研究所 《公报》指出，高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务，强调要健全因地 制宜发展新质生产力体制机制，科技创新引领的新发展模式将作为我国长期经济战略蓝图的重 要基础。"全会提出，高质量发展是全面建设社 ...

http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 6 / 11 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 7 / 11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 膜版企业。公司创始人及多名核心技术人员在掩膜版领域具备丰富从业经验，带领公司成为国内 领先的独立第三方半导体掩膜版企业之一，据一轮审核问询函回复披露，2022 年龙图光罩在中 国大陆半导体独立第三方掩模市场中占国产厂商的份额约为 13.19%-26.39%。公司主要以特色 工艺半导体市场为切入点，在部分制程节点上成功实现国产替代，与中芯集成、士兰微、积塔半 导体、华虹半导体、新唐科技、比亚迪半导体、立昂微等国内主流晶圆厂达成稳定合作；其中， 士兰微、立昂微、华虹半导体均通过关联方持有公司股份。 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 8 / 11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------- ...

IP 授权盛会召开,优质内容助力文娱发展 投资要点 事件:7 月 16 日,中国国际授权业峰会成功举办。7 月 17 日,第七届全球授权 展·上海站在国家会展中心开幕。展会同期举行多场专题论坛活动,包括中国国 际授权业峰会(CLC)、中国授权业论坛、合作伙伴大会等权威行业活动。系列 展会打破行业壁垒,推动行业联动创新与发展。 IP 集中亮相展会,全球授权市场多元化发展。展会展出面积达 4.8 万平米,较 2021 年增长 37%;汇聚展商 350 余家,1800+个 IP,设立动漫&形象&游戏& 文学、影视及传媒、品牌及代理、文博及艺术、潮流生活 5 大主题板块。会展 不仅包括环球、华纳、腾讯、优酷、芒果 TV 等知名授权商和喜羊羊、熊出没、 哆拉 A 梦、三丽鸥等国内外知名 IP,还包括故宫博物院、吴文化博物馆等国风 IP,充分展现授权业市场的多元性和丰富度。多个圆桌论坛分会场汇聚行业大咖, 探讨品牌联动 IP 多维度赋能营销。合作伙伴大会邀请包括阿里鱼、优酷少儿、 奥飞娱乐、梦之城等 IP 产业权威嘉宾分析行业洞见,探讨行业发展。 IP 价值在全球市场日益显著。据国际授权业协会(Licensing Int ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1][7][38]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the geotechnical engineering sector, focusing on key areas such as nuclear power and water conservancy, with a significant improvement in gross margins observed [1][25]. - The company has successfully turned around its performance, achieving a net profit of 18.91 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 113.13% [1][25]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on "core technology + core materials" to drive growth in national strategic sectors, including nuclear power and water conservancy [21][25]. Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 1.7 to 2.21 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 194.72% to 283.14% [1]. - Revenue for 2023 was 916 million yuan, with a projected increase to 1.1 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 20% [6][18]. - The gross margin for the company improved to 17.22% in 2023, with further increases expected in the coming years [1][40]. Business Segments - The geotechnical engineering segment generated revenue of 700 million yuan in 2023, with a projected growth of 23% in 2024 [6][40]. - The environmental remediation segment is expected to generate stable revenue, with projections of 37 million yuan in 2024 [5][40]. - Product sales saw a significant increase, achieving 178 million yuan in 2023, with a projected growth of 10% in the following years [6][40]. Market Opportunities - The company has secured a benchmark nuclear power project, which is expected to open new growth avenues in the context of energy supply and green transition [2]. - The report notes that China's nuclear power generation capacity is expected to grow significantly, providing a substantial market opportunity for the company [2][25]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for geotechnical engineering services in the nuclear power sector, with an estimated annual demand of 15 billion yuan [2][25].

华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 投资建议：公司坚持双轮驱动战略，冲泡业务基本盘稳固，叠加健康升级有望迎来 新发展阶段，即饮产品势能向好、蓄势待发，伴随着后续样板市场打造成功全国铺 开、渠道多元化拓展以及营销推广力度加大等，即饮业绩弹性有望逐步释放，看好 公司长期发展。由于公司 Q2 业绩略不及预期，我们小幅下调盈利预测，预计 2024-2026 年 公 司 营 业 收 入 由 原 来 的 42.73/49.15/55.86 亿 元 调 整 为 42.09/48.61/55.13 亿元，同比增长 16.1%/15.5%/13.4%，归母净利润由原来的 3.46/4.35/5.05 亿元调整为 3.37/4.16/4.93 亿元，同比增长 20.3%/23.2%/18.5%， 维持"买入-B"评级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

业绩持续超预期,改革红利加速释放 事件: 公司发布 2024 年上半年业绩预告,预计 24H1 实现归母净利润 7.19-7.97 亿元,同比 增长 40%-55%,实现扣非归母净利润 7-7.75 亿元,同比增长 60%-77%。单季度来看, 24Q2 公司实现归母净利润 6.19-6.94 亿元,同比增长 37%-55%,实现扣非归母净利 润 5.97-6.72 亿元,同比增长 56%-76%。 投资要点 利润分析:24Q2 延续 Q1 高增,预计大单品 U8 维持较快增速。公司 24Q2 实现 归母净利润 6.19-6.94 亿元(中值为 6.55 亿元),同比增长 37%-55%,实现扣非 归母净利润 5.97-6.72 亿元(中值为 6.35 亿元),同比增长 56%-76%。24Q2 是 公司上市以来最高单季度净利润,我们认为主要系 1)公司 Q2 大单品 U8 系列持 续放量,我们预计 Q2 U8 系列销量延续较快增速,推动产品结构升级延续;2)24 但销售及管理费用率或持续改善。 年公司主要原材料及包材的采购成本均有不同程度的下降,带动公司吨成本下行。 我们预计 24 年进口大麦价格较 23 ...

微短剧内容端供给充足,精品化或成为趋势 投资要点 事件:根据 ADX 短剧版数据显示,2024 上半年国内微短剧投流规模超 116 亿 元,参与投流的微短剧总数(去重)超 2 万部,其中新剧总数超 1.35 万部,占 比约 68%;上半年,月均投流短剧 8259 部,其中新剧 2240 部。 内容供给充足,各类型剧集特征逐步显现。根据艾瑞咨询统计,2023 年全年微 短剧创作规划备案 3574 部、上线备案 584 部,相比 2021 年分别增长 382.2% 和 445.8%,供给端创作热情高昂。根据抖音数据,2023 年微短剧用户规模已 超过 5 亿,经常观看微短剧的用户占比近 40%,15-29 岁用户占比 64.8%,女 性占比 73.4%。微短剧用户主要考量因素包括制作质量、剧情题材和演员表演。 微短剧热播题材方面,长、短视频平台呈现一定差异,短视频平台侧重爱情、生 活类叙事内容,长视频平台侧重创新内容如都市、悬疑、古装等,发掘新内容可 行性。微短剧整体上线数据短视频平台具有明显数据优势,未来头部平台上线数 量差距或将缩小,短视频平台上线数量优势会进一步放大。现阶段微短剧商业变 现主要通过广告营销、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-A" [1] Core Views - The company signed a contract with Saudi ALGIHAZ for the world's largest energy storage project with a capacity of 7.8 GWh, expected to contribute significantly to profits upon full operation in 2025 [2] - The company plans to repurchase shares using its own funds, with a total repurchase amount between RMB 500 million and 1 billion, demonstrating confidence in long-term development [2] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are RMB 10.248 billion, RMB 12.046 billion, and RMB 14.812 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.94, 5.81, and 7.14 yuan per share [2][5] - The expected P/E ratios for the same period are 14.2, 12.1, and 9.8 times [2][5] - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 89.778 billion in 2024 to RMB 129.482 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.3%, 22.1%, and 18.1% respectively [5] Project Details - The energy storage project will enhance the stability of the Saudi power grid and support the country's Vision 2030 [2] - The project will utilize over 1,500 PowerTitan 2.0 liquid-cooled energy storage systems, designed for high energy density and efficient land use [2] Share Repurchase Plan - The share repurchase plan aims to incentivize employees and align interests among shareholders, the company, and employees [2] - The repurchase will occur within 12 months from the board's approval, targeting 5.15 million to 10.31 million shares, representing 0.25% to 0.50% of the total share capital [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market" for the electrical equipment industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the ongoing trend of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) projects in Saudi Arabia, indicating a significant opportunity for Chinese companies in the international market [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of renewable energy development in Saudi Arabia, with a target of achieving 40GW of installed photovoltaic capacity by 2030 as part of the "Vision 2030" initiative [1]. - The report notes that the recent contracts awarded for HVDC projects in Saudi Arabia will enhance the stability of the local power grid and support the long-term energy strategy of the country [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Performance - The report discusses the recent awarding of contracts for HVDC converter stations in Saudi Arabia, which are part of major national projects aimed at enhancing the power transmission capacity [1]. - It mentions the successful signing of a global energy storage project by Sungrow Power Supply Co., with a capacity of 7.8GWh, expected to be operational by 2025 [1]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the demand for renewable energy solutions, particularly solar and energy storage, is increasing in the Middle East, driven by government initiatives to reduce reliance on oil [1]. - It highlights the strategic partnerships formed by Chinese companies with Saudi entities to establish local production of photovoltaic components, which is expected to boost exports and local manufacturing capabilities [1][2]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the HVDC technology will play a crucial role in the integration of renewable energy into the grid, making it a key area for investment in the upcoming energy transition [2]. - It identifies specific companies in the HVDC supply chain, such as State Grid Corporation and other leading manufacturers, as potential beneficiaries of the growing market demand [2].

投资建议：鉴于当前半导体行业复苏进程及公司业绩预告，我们调整公司原有业绩 预期。预计 2024 年至 2026 年营业收入由原来 30.23/35.47/42.52 亿元调整为 35.25/43.83/55.60 亿元，增速分别为 47.5%/24.3%/26.9%；归母净利润由原来 0.20/1.66/3.17 亿 元 调 整 为 0.54/1.91/3.31 亿 元 ， 增 速 分 别 为 158.3%/249.7%/73.7%。考虑到甬矽电子"Bumping+CP+FC+FT"的一站式交付 能力形成，二期项目产能逐步释放/下游客户群及应用领域不断扩大，叠加包括中 国台湾地区头部 IC 设计公司拓展取得重要突破，盈利能力有望改善。维持"增持 -A"评级。 单位面积内堆叠更多芯片来获得更强的性能。先进封装内涵丰富，包括倒装焊、扇 入/扇出封装、晶圆级封装、2.5D/3D 封装、Chiplet 等一系列概念，本质均为提升 I/O 密度。根据 Yole 数据，2023 年全球封测市场规模为 857 亿美元，其中先进 封装占比 48.8%。通用大模型、AI 手机及 PC、高阶自动驾驶的发展均要求高性 能算力，先进 ...