[Table_Summary] [Table_Title] 持续深耕领鲜战略，期待后续经营改善 [Table_ReportDate] 光明乳业(600597)公司简评报告 | 2024.09.14 [Table_Rank] 评级： 增持 核心观点 [Table_Authors] 赵瑞 分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522120001 zhaorui@sczq.com.cn [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） 资料来源：聚源数据 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 14-Sep 26-Nov 7-Feb20-Apr 2-Jul13-Sep 光明乳业 沪深300 [Table_BaseData] 公司基本数据 总市值（亿元） 资料来源：聚源数据 | --- | --- | |---------------------------|------------| | | | | 最新收盘价（元） | 7.41 | | 一年内最高 / 最低价（元） | 10.32/7.38 | | 市盈率（当前） | 11.23 | | 市净率（当前） | 1.15 | | 总股本（亿股） | 13.78 | | ...

[Table_Summary] [Table_Title] 持续深耕领鲜战略，期待后续经营改善 [Table_ReportDate] 光明乳业(600597)公司简评报告 | 2024.09.14 [Table_Rank] 评级： 增持 核心观点 [Table_Authors] 赵瑞 分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522120001 zhaorui@sczq.com.cn [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） 资料来源：聚源数据 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 14-Sep 26-Nov 7-Feb20-Apr 2-Jul13-Sep 光明乳业 沪深300 [Table_BaseData] 公司基本数据 总市值（亿元） 资料来源：聚源数据 | --- | --- | |---------------------------|------------| | | | | 最新收盘价（元） | 7.41 | | 一年内最高 / 最低价（元） | 10.32/7.38 | | 市盈率（当前） | 11.23 | | 市净率（当前） | 1.15 | | 总股本（亿股） | 13.78 | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.249 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.92%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 450 million yuan, up 13.62% year-on-year [4] - The company experienced strong domestic sales growth, with Q2 2024 revenue reaching 1.607 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.88%. However, net profit for Q2 2024 decreased by 3.80% year-on-year [4] - Profit margins are under pressure but are expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year. The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 27.66%, down 0.87 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company is making progress in its new energy business and expanding its client base, with a product structure that now includes key components for new energy vehicles [4] - The company is enhancing its global supply chain and has initiated the construction of a second factory in Mexico, expected to start production in Q2 2025 [4] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.37 billion yuan, 9.12 billion yuan, and 11.64 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.02 billion yuan, 1.27 billion yuan, and 1.60 billion yuan [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.249 billion yuan, a 22.92% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 450 million yuan, up 13.62% year-on-year [4] - Q2 2024 saw revenue of 1.607 billion yuan, a 15.88% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 3.80% [4] Profitability - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 27.66%, down from the previous year, indicating pressure on profit margins [4] - The company expects a gradual recovery in profit margins in the second half of the year [4] Business Expansion - The company is expanding its new energy business and improving its client base, with a focus on key components for new energy vehicles [4] - The construction of a second factory in Mexico is underway, with production expected to start in Q2 2025 [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 7.37 billion yuan, 9.12 billion yuan, and 11.64 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.02 billion yuan, 1.27 billion yuan, and 1.60 billion yuan [4][5]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has returned to stable growth with ongoing internal reforms [1] - The company reported a revenue of 14.156 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.453 billion yuan, up 11.52% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 6.27 billion yuan, 6.93 billion yuan, and 7.61 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 10.7%, and 9% [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 36.86%, an increase of 0.95 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs and improved economies of scale [2] - The revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, oyster sauce, and other products for the first half of 2024 was 7.264 billion yuan, 1.452 billion yuan, 2.322 billion yuan, and 2.146 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +6.85%, +8.55%, +5.71%, and +22.31% [2] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 199.79 billion yuan, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 33.39 and a price-to-book ratio of 7.13 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively responding to changes in the external consumption environment, with ongoing product and channel reforms [2] - The number of distributors increased to 6,674 by the end of the first half of 2024, reflecting successful adjustments and optimizations in the distributor team [2] - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan for 2024-2028, which aims to enhance internal motivation and confidence in achieving higher quality growth [2]

[Table_Title] 汽车电子高速增长，平台化战略持续推进 [Table_ReportDate] 拓普集团(601689)公司简评报告 | 2024.09.13 [Table_Rank] 评级： 买入 核心观点 [Table_Authors] 岳清慧 汽车首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110521050003 yueqinghui@sczq.com.cn [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） 资料来源：聚源数据 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 13-Sep 25-Nov 6-Feb19-Apr 1-Jul12-Sep 拓普集团 沪深300 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------------| | [Table_BaseData] 公司基本数据 | | | 最新收盘价（元） | 35.38 | | 一年内最高 / 最低价（元） | 53.38/29.48 | | 市盈率（当前） | 23.74 | | 市净率（当前） | 3.33 | | 总股本（亿股） | 16.86 | | 总市值（亿元） | ...

[Table_Title] 汽车电子高速增长，平台化战略持续推进 [Table_ReportDate] 拓普集团(601689)公司简评报告 | 2024.09.13 [Table_Rank] 评级： 买入 核心观点 [Table_Authors] 岳清慧 汽车首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110521050003 yueqinghui@sczq.com.cn [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） 资料来源：聚源数据 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 13-Sep 25-Nov 6-Feb19-Apr 1-Jul12-Sep 拓普集团 沪深300 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------------| | [Table_BaseData] 公司基本数据 | | | 最新收盘价（元） | 35.38 | | 一年内最高 / 最低价（元） | 53.38/29.48 | | 市盈率（当前） | 23.74 | | 市净率（当前） | 3.33 | | 总股本（亿股） | 16.86 | | 总市值（亿元） | ...

[Table_Summary] [Table_Title] 主动调整成效显现，龙头经营韧性仍强 [Table_ReportDate] 伊利股份(600887)公司简评报告 | 2024.09.12 [Table_Rank] 评级： 买入 核心观点 [Table_Authors] 赵瑞 分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522120001 zhaorui@sczq.com.cn [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） 资料来源：聚源数据 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 12-Sep 24-Nov 5-Feb18-Apr 30-Jun 11-Sep 伊利股份 沪深300 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------------| | [Table_BaseData] 公司基本数据 | | | 最新收盘价（元） | 22.23 | | 一年内最高 / 最低价（元） | 28.25/21.48 | | 市盈率（当前） | 12.14 | | 市净率（当前） | 2.67 | | 总股本（亿股） | 63.66 | | 总市 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Hidden Markov Model (HMM) **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the theory of historical repetition, identifying the current state of industries and matching it with historical states to predict future probabilities of industry price increases[2][9][33] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Definition of HMM Components**: - State set: $Q=\{q_{1},q_{2},\cdots,q_{N}\}$, representing all possible hidden states[17] - Observation set: $V=\{\nu_{1},\nu_{2},\cdots,\nu_{M}\}$, representing all possible observations[17] - State transition matrix: $A=[a_{i,j}]_{N\times N}$, where $a_{i,j}$ represents the probability of transitioning from state $q_i$ to state $q_j$[19] - Observation probability matrix: $B=[b_{j,k}]_{N\times M}$, where $b_{j,k}$ represents the probability of observing $\nu_k$ given state $q_j$[20] - Initial state probability vector: $\pi=[\pi_{i}]$, where $\pi_i$ represents the probability of starting in state $q_i$[22] - The HMM is represented as $\lambda=(A,B,\pi)$[23] 2. **Industry Rotation Strategy Construction**: - Historical data from January 2018 to August 2024 is used to train the model[34] - Monthly rebalancing is applied to the portfolio, considering industry rotation as an asset allocation strategy[35] - Features used for training include daily return, turnover rate, volatility, volatility change, and turnover rate change[35][48] - Features are standardized using Z-Score normalization: $X'={\frac{X-M e a n(X)}{S t d(X)}}$[49][50] - States are generated using HMM, and historical samples are classified into significant upward and downward categories based on future returns thresholds (e.g., 3.5%)[52][64] - Similarity between current states and historical states is calculated using a relaxed matching method: $$S_{i}=\begin{cases}1.0&\text{if}\ W_{i}^{\text{Now}}=W_{i}^{\text{Part}}\\ 0.5&\text{if}\ W_{i}^{\text{Now}}=W_{i-1}^{\text{Part}}\ \text{or}\ W_{i}^{\text{Now}}=W_{i+1}^{\text{Part}}\\ 0&\text{otherwise}\end{cases}$$ $$S=\sum_{i=1}^{K}S_{i}$$[54] - The probability of future price increases is defined as: $$\frac{S_{U p}}{S_{U p}+S_{D m}}$$[35][36] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively reduces noise and improves prediction accuracy by extracting abstract states from complex multidimensional features[89] Model Backtesting Results In-Sample Results - **Cumulative Excess Return**: 2022: 7.02%, 2023: 9.03%[71][73] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 2022: -3.50%, 2023: -3.40%[71][73] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 2022: 66.67%, 2023: 91.67%[71][73] - **Annualized Volatility**: 2022: 5.91%, 2023: 5.33%[71][73] - **Monthly Profit-Loss Ratio**: 2022: 1.76, 2023: 0.48[71][73] Out-of-Sample Results - **Cumulative Excess Return**: 2024 (Jan-Aug): 10.75%[74][75] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 2024 (Jan-Aug): -2.80%[74][75] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 2024 (Jan-Aug): 75.00%[74][75] - **Annualized Volatility**: 2024 (Jan-Aug): 6.77%[74][75] - **Monthly Profit-Loss Ratio**: 2024 (Jan-Aug): 1.91[74][75] Top Industry Selection - **2024 Top Industries**: Selected industries include oil & petrochemicals, coal, home appliances, non-bank finance, communication, and comprehensive finance[88][81] - **Ranking Performance**: - **Top 1**: Appeared 4 times - **Top 3**: Appeared 8 times - **Top 5**: Appeared 13 times - **Top 10**: Appeared 20 times - **Top 15**: Appeared 28 times (58% of total samples)[83] - **Monthly Turnover Rate**: Average turnover rate of 53%, with higher turnover in February, April, and June[83] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Industry State Matching Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Predict future industry price increases by matching current states with historical states associated with significant upward or downward trends[33][56] **Factor Construction Process**: - Historical data is classified into significant upward and downward categories based on future return thresholds[52] - Similarity between current states and historical states is calculated using relaxed matching criteria[54] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures industry trends and improves prediction accuracy[89] Factor Backtesting Results In-Sample Results - **Cumulative Excess Return**: 2022: 7.02%, 2023: 9.03%[71][73] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 2022: -3.50%, 2023: -3.40%[71][73] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 2022: 66.67%, 2023: 91.67%[71][73] - **Annualized Volatility**: 2022: 5.91%, 2023: 5.33%[71][73] - **Monthly Profit-Loss Ratio**: 2022: 1.76, 2023: 0.48[71][73] Out-of-Sample Results - **Cumulative Excess Return**: 2024 (Jan-Aug): 10.75%[74][75] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 2024 (Jan-Aug): -2.80%[74][75] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 2024 (Jan-Aug): 75.00%[74][75] - **Annualized Volatility**: 2024 (Jan-Aug): 6.77%[74][75] - **Monthly Profit-Loss Ratio**: 2024 (Jan-Aug): 1.91[74][75]

[Table_Rank] 评级： 买入 [Table_Authors] 岳清慧 汽车首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S011052105003 yueqinghui@sczq.com.cn [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------|-------|----------|--------------|-------|-------|-------|---------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | 1.5 | | | 北汽蓝谷 | | | | 沪深 | 300 | | | | 1 | | | | | | | | | | 0.5 | | | | | | | | | | | -0.5 | 0 4-Sep | | 15-Nov | 26-Jan 7-Apr | | | | 18-Jun 29-Aug | | 资料来源：聚源数据 [Table_BaseData] 公司基本数据 总市值（亿元） 368. ...