券 研 报 告 研 究 2024 年 12 月 16 日 究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|--------------------|-------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electric power equipment sector [29]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is forming a self-regulatory framework to prevent "involution" and promote sustainable development, with 33 companies signing a self-discipline agreement [3][20]. - The largest-ever procurement order for photovoltaic modules, totaling 51GW, indicates a shift towards rational pricing among leading companies, with major firms quoting prices above the cost line of 0.69 yuan/W [4][21]. - The upcoming launch of polysilicon futures on December 26 is expected to help alleviate industry inventory pressures [7][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Self-Regulatory Agreement and Polysilicon Futures - A self-regulatory agreement was signed by 33 companies to control capacity and shipments, aiming to avoid blind expansion and promote healthy industry development [3][20]. - The polysilicon futures will be launched on December 26, with a trading unit of 3 tons per hand and a minimum price fluctuation of 5 yuan/ton, which is anticipated to assist in inventory digestion [7][28]. 2. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights India's plan to include solar cells in the ALMM, requiring all solar projects to procure components from approved domestic manufacturers starting June 2026 [32]. - The U.S. has announced high tariffs on certain solar products from China, which could impact the market dynamics significantly [33]. 3. Photovoltaic Industry Chain Tracking - The self-regulatory meeting has led to a stabilization in the silicon material and module prices, with recent discussions focusing on production quotas and market stability [36]. - The report notes a decrease in silicon wafer inventory, leading to a rebound in prices, with P-type and N-type silicon wafer prices reported at 1.1-1.15 yuan/piece and 1.05 yuan/piece respectively [37]. 4. Market Performance - The electric power equipment sector experienced a decline of 2.15% recently, ranking 27th among sectors [4]. - The report provides a detailed forecast for key companies, indicating varying earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with some companies rated as "Buy" [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the expectation of enhanced domestic demand driven by policy support, particularly in the liquor sector, which is showing signs of recovery amid market optimism [1][12]. - The white liquor sector is currently characterized by strong expectations but weak realities, with ongoing pressure on fundamentals [1][12]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on undervalued stocks with strong performance indicators, recommending specific companies within the liquor segment [1][12]. Weekly News Summary - Industry News: - The actual production capacity of sauce liquor in Chishui City has reached 30,000 tons [12]. - In November, liquor prices decreased by 1.9% year-on-year [12]. - Company News: - Kweichow Moutai is conducting market research in Southeast Asia and the US [12]. - Wuliangye is increasing its market presence in Beijing, Chengdu, and Shenzhen [12]. Market Performance - The report outlines the relative performance of the food and beverage sector, with sub-sector rankings as follows: - Baijiu > Beer > Snacks = Soft Drinks > Frozen Foods > Condiments > Dairy Products [1]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is experiencing a recovery trend, reflecting market optimism due to supportive policies [1][12]. Key Company Feedback - The report provides insights into the performance of key companies, with a focus on their stock price movements and market strategies [1][12]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, among others [1][12]. Industry Data Trends - The report presents key data trends in the liquor industry, noting that the production of white liquor in 2023 was 4.492 million tons, a decrease of 33.08% year-on-year, while industry revenue reached 756.3 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7% [56]. - The condiment industry has shown significant growth, with market size increasing from 259.5 billion yuan in 2014 to 592.3 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 9.6% [57].

证 2024 年 12 月 15 日 报 告 ▌ 投资要点一 投资要点一投资要点一投资要点一投资要点一投资要点一 投资要点一投资要点一投资要点一投资要点一投资要点一 投资要点一投资要点一投资要点一投资要点一投资要点 一。 ▌ 投资要点二 投资要点二投资要点二投资要点二投资要点二投资要点二投 资要点二投资要点二投资要点二投资要点二投资要点二投资 要点二投资要点二投资要点二投资要点二投资要点二投资要 点二。 ▌ 投资要点三 投资要点三投资要点三投资要点三投资要点三投资要点三投 资要点三投资要点三投资要点三投资要点三投资要点三投资 要点三投资要点三投资要点三投资要点三投资要点三投资要 点三。 ▌ …… 文字文字文字文字文字文字文字文字文字文字文字文字文字 文字文字文字文字文字文字文字文字文字 金 融 工 程 研 究 政策预期落地，红利和小盘主题共振延续 —定量策略周报 投资要点 ▌ 一周鑫思路 【市场核心驱动力】：上周风险资产进入震荡区间，全球 央行开启降息周期；内外机构投资者参与度均不高，散户 交易占据主导； 美股散户和跨境流入仍健康，衍生品和机构仓位略显拥 挤，持有不折腾，如有 5%的超调再看增仓机会；板块上科 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, highlighting the potential for growth in the sector due to various factors including the implementation of vehicle replacement policies and the rise of new energy vehicles [5][6][48]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous improvement in the practicality and reliability of Tesla's Optimus robot, which is expected to boost confidence in mass production [2][5]. - The vehicle replacement policy is showing sustained effects, with November retail sales of passenger vehicles reaching 2.423 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.5% and a month-on-month increase of 7.1% [2][5]. - The report forecasts that 2024 will be a significant year for vehicle consumption, with expectations of over 30 million vehicles sold in China [54]. Summary by Sections Market Performance and Valuation Levels - The automotive sector's performance is highlighted, with the CITIC automotive index rising by 0.5%, outperforming the broader market by 1.5 percentage points [18]. - The automotive industry's PE ratio is reported at 30.9, indicating a high valuation compared to historical levels [26]. Industry Data Tracking and Commentary - The average daily retail of passenger vehicles in early December was 63,000 units, a 32% increase year-on-year [40]. - The report notes that the vehicle replacement policy has significantly boosted sales, particularly for new energy vehicles, which saw a retail penetration rate of 52.3% in November [2][5]. Company Announcements and Industry News - The report mentions several new vehicle models being registered, including the Hongmeng Zhixing Z800 and Xiaomi YU7, indicating ongoing innovation in the sector [4][58]. - It also highlights that the Chinese automotive market is expected to exceed 30 million units in production and sales for 2024, with new energy vehicles projected to reach 13 million units [54]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies with deep collaborations with Huawei, such as Seres and JAC Motors, as they are expected to capture a larger share of the high-end market [5][6]. - It also identifies key players in the automotive parts sector, including New Spring Co., Daimei Co., and Mould Technology, as potential growth opportunities [6][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The tenth batch of centralized procurement results has been announced, intensifying competition and compressing profit margins for pharmaceutical companies. The new procurement rules have led to significant price reductions, with some products bidding below 0.3 yuan per unit [3] - There are numerous opportunities for Chinese companies in international clinical conferences, with a notable increase in license-out transactions, which reached 73 deals in Q1-Q3 2024, totaling $33.6 billion, a 100% increase year-on-year [5] - The integration of commercial health insurance with the national medical insurance system is expected to enhance the value ceiling for innovative drugs, as commercial insurance can provide more precise underwriting and attract more customers [7] - The 2024 medical insurance directory has been officially released, with a success rate of 76% for negotiations, leading to the inclusion of 89 new drugs, which will inject new growth into the pharmaceutical industry [9] - The rise in flu positivity rates indicates a peak demand for respiratory diagnostics, with an increase in testing and a stable growth outlook for the respiratory testing market [11] - The acceleration of retail pharmacy consolidation is expected to benefit leading companies, as the total number of retail pharmacies is projected to decline by over 10% by 2025 [13] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical industry index has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.07 percentage points over the past week, with a decline of 0.93% [36] - Over the past month, the pharmaceutical industry index has also outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.50 percentage points, with a decline of 3.83% [39] Key Companies and Stock Recommendations - Recommended companies include 康希诺, 益方生物, and others, focusing on clinical data releases and potential business development opportunities [15] - The report suggests关注 for companies like 上海谊众 and 信立泰, which are expected to benefit from the new medical insurance directory [16] - Recommendations also include companies like 九典制药 and 英诺特, which are positioned well in the current market environment [18][19] Recent Developments - The report highlights significant recent developments in the industry, including the approval of new drugs and clinical trials by various companies, indicating a dynamic and evolving market landscape [69][70]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold industry, copper industry, aluminum industry, tin industry, and antimony industry [12]. Core Views - The report highlights that the U.S. Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, which supports an upward trend in gold prices [12]. - For copper, while short-term prices are expected to fluctuate, the long-term supply-demand gap remains a concern [12]. - The aluminum market is characterized by tight supply and demand, suggesting a potential upward price trend [12]. - Tin prices are supported by tight raw material supplies, while antimony prices may experience slight declines due to weak short-term demand [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) experienced a weekly decline of 0.49%, ranking lower among all Shenwan first-level industries [28]. - Silver, aluminum, and copper were the top-performing sub-sectors, with increases of 5.47%, 0.81%, and 0.70%, respectively [28]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In November, China's CPI was 0.2%, and PPI was -2.5% [36]. - The U.S. November core CPI was 3.3%, aligning with expectations, while the overall CPI was 2.7% [36]. 3. Precious Metals Market Key Data - The London gold price was $2659.05 per ounce, up $21.75 from December 6, reflecting a 0.82% increase [56]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 260,000 ounces to 27.78 million ounces [56]. 4. Industrial Metals Data - LME copper closed at $9098 per ton, with a slight decrease of $49 from December 6 [5]. - Domestic aluminum prices were reported at 20,290 RMB per ton, down 50 RMB from December 6 [8]. 5. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [12]. 6. Key Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Mining, among others, indicating strong potential in the gold sector [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Yidao Information, Guoguang Electric, Tongfu Microelectronics, GoerTek, and others [7][22][24]. Core Insights - The electronic industry showed a mixed performance with a slight increase of 0.22% from December 9 to December 13, ranking 14th among the sectors [32]. - Nvidia is under investigation by Chinese authorities for alleged violations of antitrust laws related to its acquisition of Mellanox Technologies, which may shift market focus towards domestic computing power solutions [4][20]. - Google announced the launch of a new operating system, Android XR, in collaboration with Samsung, aimed at enhancing user experience in head-mounted devices and smart glasses [5][21]. Summary by Sections Weekly Review - The electronic industry experienced a 0.22% increase during the week of December 9-13, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 42.02 [32]. - Among the electronic sub-sectors, other electronics, LED, and brand consumer electronics saw the highest gains [38]. Company Focus - Nvidia's investigation is expected to lead to increased attention on domestic computing power, suggesting a focus on the Ascend 910C supply chain, including companies like Yihua Technology and Huafeng Technology [4][20]. - The report highlights several companies with strong earnings forecasts, including Yidao Information and Guoguang Electric, both rated as "Buy" [7][22][24]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the semiconductor industry is facing challenges due to geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions, which could impact production and R&D [7]. - The overall performance of overseas semiconductor leaders showed a mixed trend, with Broadcom leading in gains and AMD experiencing significant declines [26]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in the AI glasses supply chain, such as Doctor Glasses and Edifier, following the launch of Android XR [5][21]. - Specific companies are highlighted for their growth potential, including Tongfu Microelectronics and Longji Technology, which are expected to benefit from market shifts [7][22][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including China Petroleum, Sinopec, and others in the chemical sector [4][21]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in certain chemical products such as butadiene (up 103.88%) and natural gas (up 12.21%), while other products like coal tar and DMF saw substantial declines [1][20]. - It suggests that the chemical industry is entering a favorable demand season, with opportunities for investment in leading companies within specific sub-sectors that exhibit strong cost advantages and stable competitive landscapes [3][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical factors and market expectations that could influence oil prices, which are currently under pressure but may stabilize [20][22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - International oil prices are experiencing fluctuations, with recent geopolitical tensions affecting market stability [22]. - The report notes that the chemical sector is seeing a mix of price increases and decreases across various products, indicating a complex market environment [1][19]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were observed in butadiene, natural gas, and other chemicals, while products like coal tar and DMF faced notable declines [1][19]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of price trends for various chemicals, indicating a volatile market influenced by supply and demand dynamics [31][32]. Company Performance and Recommendations - The report identifies specific leading companies in various sub-sectors, such as Wanhua Chemical in polyurethane and Longbai Group in titanium dioxide, as having strong investment potential due to their competitive advantages [3][21]. - It suggests that companies like Sinopec and China National Offshore Oil Corporation are well-positioned to benefit from potential cost relief in refining operations [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) [4][9]. Core Viewpoints - Luzhou Laojiao is recognized as the first listed liquor company in Shenzhen and has established itself as a leader in the strong aroma liquor segment. The company has a clear brand strategy with a focus on high-end products, which is expected to drive future growth [6][21]. - The high-end liquor market is projected to grow significantly, with revenues expected to increase from 512 billion yuan in 2017 to 1664 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% [7][49]. - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a 32-year CAGR of 18.3% in total revenue and 22% in net profit, indicating robust growth and stability [22][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Luzhou Laojiao was established in 1994 and has become a prominent player in the liquor industry, with a cumulative cash dividend of 433 billion yuan as of mid-2024, which is 349 times the initial investment [6][26]. - The company has a stable state-owned shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholder being the Luzhou State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [26][29]. Market Performance - The overall liquor market in China is expected to reach 648.8 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [7][40]. - The high-end liquor segment has seen a significant increase in market share, with expectations to rise from 9% in 2017 to 21.6% by 2026 [7][49]. Organizational Management - The company has a well-defined brand strategy, focusing on dual brands and three product lines, which has contributed to its market recognition and sales performance [8][21]. - Luzhou Laojiao has upgraded its organizational model and improved the quality of its distributors, enhancing its market presence [8][33]. Financial Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for Luzhou Laojiao is projected to be 9.81 yuan in 2024, 10.20 yuan in 2025, and 11.23 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 14, and 12 times respectively [9][10].