证 2024 年 10 月 16 日 报 告 行 研 究 新势力 9 月销量点评：小鹏、零跑等车企交付量 创历史新高，MONA 03 等新车型有望进一步提振 车企销量 —汽车行业动态研究报告 ▌蔚来/小鹏/理想/小米：小鹏、理想月交付量创新 高，小鹏 MONA 03 大定表现亮眼 蔚来：9 月交付 21,181 辆，同比+35.4%，环比+5.0%，连续 5 个月交付突破 2 万辆。小鹏：9 月交付 21,352 辆，同比 +39.5%，环比+52.1%，小鹏 MONA M03 交付破万台，带动小鹏 月交付量创新高。理 想： 9 月交付 53,709 辆，同比 +48.9%，环比+11.6%，月交付量创新高。10 月，理想将迎来 第 100 万辆新车的下线和交付。小米：9 月交付突破 1 万 辆，10 月生产目标冲刺 2 万台；4 月 SU7 上市以来，交付稳 步上行，预计 11 月提前完成全年 10 万台交付目标。 ▌鸿蒙智行：9 月交付 39,931 辆，问界新 M7 交付 突破 20 万台，享界 S9 交付 2169 辆 问界：9 月交付 35,560 辆，同比+ 399.1%，环比+13.9%。其 中 ...

Core Views - The report analyzes the patterns of the US economy and major asset classes during the 7 Fed rate cut cycles since 1984, highlighting that US bonds and gold typically outperform, while US stocks perform well during soft landings, and commodities like copper, crude oil, and CRB face downward pressure [1] - The current market outlook suggests that US stocks await trading opportunities post the November election, US bond yields are more likely to decline, the dollar is testing the 100 support level, gold remains a favorable allocation, Hong Kong stocks are benefiting from favorable conditions, and A-shares have confirmed a reversal, while the RMB awaits catalysts for active appreciation [1] 50BP Rate Cut Signal - The Fed's 50BP rate cut in September, combined with hawkish remarks, signals a soft landing scenario, with US-China monetary policies entering a synchronized easing phase [2] - The US economy remains in a soft landing zone with low recession risks, and another 50BP rate cut is expected within the year, with employment and economic data taking precedence over inflation [2] Overseas Asset Strategy - During rate cut cycles, US bonds and gold benefit, while industrial commodities face pressure [2] - US stocks: Perform well during soft landings but are currently at high levels, awaiting post-election opportunities and the return of rate cut trades, with focus on small caps, healthcare, real estate, and financial sectors [2] - US bonds: Face upward pressure after the first rate cut but are more likely to decline thereafter [2] - US dollar: Tends to depreciate during rate cut cycles, with a smaller depreciation magnitude during soft landings compared to recessions, and the 100 support level is key [2] - Commodities: Gold retains allocation value, while crude oil faces a tug-of-war between slowing demand and rising risk aversion [2] China Asset Strategy - During the initial phase of rate cuts, Chinese assets benefit, with Hong Kong stocks outperforming [2] - Hong Kong stocks: Historically, except for the last three recessionary rate cut cycles, Hong Kong stocks have risen over 20% during rate cut cycles, with favorable conditions in place and opportunities in the tech sector [2] - A-shares: Perform well around the first Fed rate cut, supported by domestic policy efforts, with the inflection point confirmed and upside dependent on fiscal stimulus [2] - RMB: Passive appreciation is nearing its end, awaiting active appreciation driven by policy and fundamental improvements [2] Historical Rate Cut Cycles - The report provides a detailed analysis of historical Fed rate cut cycles, including the 1984-1986 soft landing, 1989-1992 recession, 1995 soft landing, 1998 soft landing, 2001-2003 recession, 2007-2008 recession, and 2019-2020 soft landing followed by recession [7][10][12][15][18][21][23][26] - Key takeaways include the varying performance of assets during soft landings versus recessions, with US bonds and gold consistently outperforming, while equities and commodities show mixed results [7][10][12][15][18][21][23][26] Current US Economic Conditions - The US labor market has normalized, with low-end service jobs returning to pre-pandemic levels and a shift from labor shortages to surpluses [32] - Non-farm payroll data shows short-term resilience but a weakening trend, with government employment providing support [35] - Manufacturing PMI remains weak, while consumer and economic confidence have rebounded, supported by strong September non-farm payroll data [36] - Inventory levels are rising, but the inventory-to-sales ratio remains high, indicating a lack of smooth inventory replenishment [37] - The housing market is cooling, with declining home prices and weak sales, although building permits show some improvement [38][40] Global Equity Markets - During the initial phase of rate cuts, non-US markets tend to benefit from US capital outflows, with the Hang Seng Index performing particularly well [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - Q3 revenue reached a historical high, with significant improvement in gross margin [2][3] - The company achieved Q3 revenue of 310 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.47%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 51 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 171.09% [2] - Gross margin in Q3 recovered to 42.45%, an increase of 12.39 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] Business Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 740 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.62%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 62 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.81% [3] - The decline in net profit was mainly due to increased costs from new project investments, including depreciation, amortization, and labor expenses, as well as stock payment expenses and increased R&D investment [3] - Q3 revenue increased by 26.03% quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased demand for high-performance chip testing (CPU, GPU, AI) and high-reliability chip testing (industrial and automotive electronics) [3] Production and R&D Layout - The company has four production centers in Shanghai, Wuxi, Nanjing, and Shenzhen, with Wuxi and Shanghai plants operating at full capacity [4] - The Nanjing plant completed acceptance in August 2024 and will handle overflow orders from Shanghai and Wuxi, primarily for consumer electronics [4] - The company has an R&D team in Shanghai focused on test solutions and program development, and a service center in Tianjin for MCU and automotive electronics chips [4] - Future expansion plans include adding production centers in Changsha and Chengdu, covering the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, central, and southwestern regions [4] Product Strategy - The company focuses on two main product lines: high-reliability chip testing (automotive and industrial) and high-performance chip testing (CPU, GPU, AI) [5] - High-end products accounted for 75% of total products in 2023, and 66% in the first half of 2024, with expectations to exceed 2023 levels in the second half of 2024 [5] - The shift towards high-end products has significantly improved gross margins [5] Financial Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 1.12 billion yuan, 1.327 billion yuan, and 1.612 billion yuan, respectively [6][8] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.17 yuan, 2.15 yuan, and 2.76 yuan, respectively [6][8] - The current PE ratio is 50x for 2024, 27x for 2025, and 21x for 2026 [6] Key Financial Metrics - Gross margin is expected to improve from 38.0% in 2024 to 41.0% in 2026 [10] - ROE is projected to increase from 5.4% in 2024 to 12.4% in 2026 [10] - Net profit margin is forecasted to rise from 11.9% in 2024 to 19.5% in 2026 [10]

Investment Rating - Buy (首次) [1] Core Views - The company, a leading player in the automotive wheel hub bearing industry, has achieved steady growth in both revenue and profit through its dual focus on front-end (OEM) and aftermarket (AM) segments [1] - The company's revenue increased from 591 million yuan in 2021 to 652 million yuan in 2023, with a YoY growth of 35.16%, 9.60%, and 0.62% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders grew from 96 million yuan in 2021 to 120 million yuan in 2023, with YoY growth rates of 61.66%, 8.16%, and 16.03% respectively [1] - The company's gross profit margins for its main products, such as wheel hub bearing units and clutch release bearings, are 30.21% and 38.87% respectively [1] Market Analysis - The domestic wheel hub bearing market is projected to reach 48.84 billion yuan by 2025, with a CAGR of 9.3% [1] - The front-end market is expected to grow to 14.3 billion yuan by 2025, while the aftermarket is projected to reach 34.54 billion yuan [1] - The AM market is characterized by diverse customer needs, requiring small-batch, multi-variety, and fast-response customized products, while the OEM market demands large-scale, fast-turnover products [2] - The global bearing market is dominated by eight multinational corporations, while the domestic market is fragmented with many small-scale enterprises focusing on low-end products [2] Business Strategy - The company is expanding its presence in both the aftermarket and front-end markets, with a strong focus on the growing demand from new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturers [2] - It has secured multiple projects with mainstream NEV brands such as Changan, Great Wall, Dongfeng, Geely, GAC, Leapmotor, and XPeng [2] - The company is optimizing resource allocation through flexible production and rapid capacity expansion, with its second and third factories expected to significantly boost production capabilities [2] - The third factory, with an investment of 250 million yuan, is set to produce 900,000 sets of tapered roller bearings annually for heavy and medium-duty trucks, with a projected gross margin of 35.85% [3][5] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 778 million yuan in 2024 to 1.495 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 24.5% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 125 million yuan in 2024 to 194 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 24.7% [6] - EPS is projected to rise from 1.22 yuan in 2024 to 1.89 yuan in 2026, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 19.73x to 12.7x [6] Industry Trends - The domestic bearing industry is witnessing a significant trend of localization in the front-end market, driven by improving R&D capabilities [2] - The rapid development of the electric vehicle sector is driving demand for wheel hub bearings, with the market expected to grow steadily over the next few years [1] - The company is leveraging its technological expertise to expand into high-growth segments such as commercial vehicles and NEVs, with new products like bearings for NEV gearboxes and robotic arm joints [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Viewpoints - The company's supply chain cost reduction and efficiency improvements have led to sustained profitability growth [3] - The company's condiment sales have significantly increased, and its computing power business is steadily progressing [4] - The company's internal reforms and market share expansion in the condiment business, along with the development of its computing power business, are expected to continue driving profit growth [5] Financial Performance - The company's estimated net profit for Q1-Q3 2024 is 160-170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69%-80% [3] - The estimated net profit for Q3 2024 is 59-69 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%-56% [3] - The company's condiment sales and revenue have seen substantial growth due to successful retail channel expansion and increased marketing efforts [4] - The computing power business has secured new customer orders with a total contract value of approximately 1.18 million yuan [4] Profit Forecast - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.13/0.17/0.23 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25/19/15 [5] - The company's net profit is expected to grow from 235 million yuan in 2024 to 406 million yuan in 2026 [7] - The company's ROE is forecasted to increase from 15.3% in 2024 to 18.8% in 2026 [7] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on its "brand revival strategy" and optimizing its marketing network to strengthen its competitive advantage in the condiment business [4] - The company is actively developing its computing power business as a second growth curve, with stable progress in server procurement and order delivery [4] Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a 52-week range of 2.99-7.73 yuan [1] - The company's daily average trading volume is 412.12 million yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors [11]. Core Insights - Incremental fiscal policies will be introduced, providing support for industrial metal prices [2]. - The report highlights that the gold price is expected to maintain an upward trend due to anticipated interest rate cuts in November [5]. - Copper and aluminum prices are expected to remain strong due to fiscal policy stimulation and supply constraints [6][7]. - Tin prices are projected to experience high-level fluctuations due to tight supply conditions [9]. - Antimony prices may face short-term weakness due to negative demand feedback, although long-term supply issues persist [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly decline of 6.41%, with copper and lithium experiencing the largest drops of 8.25% and 9.59%, respectively [20]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Finance plans to roll out targeted fiscal policies to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand [28]. - U.S. inflation data shows a core CPI increase of 3.3% year-on-year, slightly above expectations [29]. 3. Precious Metals Market Key Data - The report indicates that gold prices are expected to rise as interest rate cuts are anticipated [11]. 4. Industrial Metals Data - Copper prices are underpinned by supply constraints, with domestic production expected to decline [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are projected to remain strong due to ongoing inventory reductions [7][8]. 5. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, citing strong price support and favorable macroeconomic conditions [11]. 6. Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including Zhongjin Gold and Zijin Mining, highlighting their strong market positions and growth potential [12].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is undergoing a transition from a bear to a bull market, similar to the 1999 and 2014-2015 bull markets, driven by comprehensive financial policies and easing measures [1][3][4] - The current market rally is characterized by rapid increases and decreases, but with ongoing policy support, a sustained upward trend is anticipated, focusing on differentiated adjustments in brokerage firms and value blue chips such as banks, petrochemicals, home appliances, and transportation, alongside technology growth sectors like AI and semiconductors [1][4] Group 2: Asset Revaluation - The report highlights a shift in domestic asset valuation due to synchronized monetary easing between China and the U.S., with the Federal Reserve's unexpected 50 basis point rate cut on September 19, 2024, marking a significant turning point [2][10] - The easing measures are expected to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, with the potential for the renminbi to appreciate and improve the overall investment landscape [2][25] Group 3: Historical Comparisons - The report draws parallels between the current market conditions and historical bull markets, noting that the 1999 bull market was fueled by liquidity-driven valuation recovery, followed by improvements in fundamentals and profitability [3][28] - The 2014-2015 bull market was primarily liquidity-driven with limited fundamental improvements, indicating that policy and liquidity are crucial for the initial stages of a bull market [3][28] Group 4: Industry Focus - The report emphasizes a focus on value stocks and growth sectors, particularly in brokerage firms, value blue chips, and technology growth areas, suggesting that these sectors will play a significant role in the upcoming market dynamics [1][4][19] - The anticipated policy measures are expected to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumer confidence, which will further support the recovery of the A-share market [15][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [8][39]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a relative underperformance compared to the broader market, with the CITIC Automotive Index down 4.3% recently, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 1.0 percentage points [14]. - Tesla's AI business is gaining traction, with the introduction of Optimus and Cybercab showcasing advancements in humanoid robotics and autonomous vehicles [3][4]. - The report highlights significant investment opportunities in Tesla's AI supply chain, particularly focusing on the Optimus Gen 3 and its advanced components [7][38]. Market Performance and Valuation - The automotive sector's PE (TTM) stands at 27.2, placing it in the 11.3% percentile over the past four years, while the PB is at 2.5, in the 78.0% percentile [19]. - The report notes that the average performance of 23 tracked companies in the North Exchange automotive sector was down 7.9% recently [25]. Industry Data Tracking and Commentary - In September, the average daily wholesale of passenger cars showed a mixed performance, with a total of 2.469 million units sold, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1% [29]. - The report indicates a positive trend in retail sales, with a total of 2.063 million passenger cars sold in September, marking a 2% increase year-on-year [31]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with deep collaborations with Huawei, such as Seres and JAC Motors, as well as on domestic auto parts manufacturers benefiting from technological changes and export opportunities [38]. - Specific investment targets include companies involved in lightweight materials, interior and exterior parts, and intelligent automotive technologies [38]. Recommended Stocks - The report lists several stocks with "Buy" ratings, including Mold Technology, Shuanglin Technology, and Jianghuai Automobile, among others [39].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [1]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in performance and continuous improvement in operational quality, driven by strong demand in downstream industries supported by favorable policies [1]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, achieving significant growth in new orders, with a year-on-year increase of 86% in the first half of 2024, showcasing its strong competitiveness in international markets [1][3]. - Continuous investment in research and development is a priority, with R&D expenses reaching 264 million yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.67% and accounting for 7.05% of operating revenue [1][3]. Summary by Sections Market Demand and Policy Support - The industrial automatic control system devices are widely used in sectors such as petrochemicals, metallurgy, and electricity, which are crucial for the high-end, intelligent, and green transformation of manufacturing [1]. - The demand for technological upgrades and equipment renewal in downstream industries is expected to broaden the development space for the industry [1]. Overseas Market Expansion - The company is deepening collaborations with major engineering firms and actively exploring markets in Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [1]. - The overseas market's high gross margin for orders presents a new growth point despite higher service costs and longer project cycles [1]. Research and Development - The company has implemented 24 national and provincial-level technology projects and has made significant progress in key R&D projects [1][3]. - The company aims to maintain R&D investment at over 7% of revenue, enhancing its competitive advantage and market share [1][3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 82.07 billion yuan, 92.76 billion yuan, and 105.43 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.59 yuan, 1.82 yuan, and 2.11 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.3, 10.7, and 9.2 times [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a substantial increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the same period last year [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the semiconductor market and its enhanced competitiveness, leading to sustained revenue and profit growth [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 to be between 4,100 million and 4,300 million yuan, representing an increase of 131% to 143% year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 252.33 million and 292.33 million yuan, a significant increase from a loss of 65.47 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - The company expects a substantial increase in net profit, with a non-recurring net profit forecasted to be between 282.08 million and 322.08 million yuan, up 34.2 million to 38.2 million yuan year-on-year [2] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has launched new products in the smart security sector, leading to a notable increase in sales revenue [2] - In the smartphone sector, the company has seen a significant rise in the shipment of high-end 50MP products, enhancing its market share and revenue [2] - The company is strategically positioned in three key areas: smart security, smartphones, and automotive electronics, which are expected to drive long-term growth [2] Earnings Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 60.06 billion, 78.17 billion, and 96.92 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.93, 1.55, and 2.32 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 69, 41, and 28 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3]