Market Overview - The A-share index rebounded this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.36%[25] - The bond market saw a slight decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.69%[63] - The commodity futures index increased by 0.97%, driven by gains in grain and energy sectors[59] Economic Indicators - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises was CNY 66,674.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%[17] - The industrial production value increased by 5.4% year-on-year in November, indicating a slight recovery in production activity[17] - The GDP for 2023 was revised to CNY 129.4 trillion, reflecting a growth rate of 2.7%[21] Policy Outlook - The "policy combination" is expected to continue to support economic growth into early 2025, with a focus on expanding domestic demand[26] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of consumption and effective investment to stimulate economic recovery[26] - The government plans to implement a special action to boost consumption in 2025[26] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended asset allocation order remains: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[5] - The stock market is favored due to anticipated policy support, while bonds are expected to be under pressure from stock market performance[27]

Economic Overview - As of November, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached 66,674.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%, with the decline slightly widening by 0.4 percentage points compared to October[6] - In November, the profit of industrial enterprises fell by 7.3% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 2.7 percentage points compared to October[6] Revenue and Cost Analysis - From January to November 2024, industrial enterprises' operating income grew by 1.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate down by 0.1 percentage points from January to October[6] - The operating costs of industrial enterprises increased by 2.3% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as in the previous period, indicating continued pressure on profitability due to costs outpacing revenue growth[6] Profitability Insights - The operating income profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from October[14] - The manufacturing sector's contribution to industrial enterprise profits continued to weaken, with a year-on-year profit decline of 4.6% from January to November, extending the decline by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[5] Sector Performance - The mining sector's profit fell by 13.2% year-on-year, contributing negatively to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises by 2.3 percentage points[4] - High-tech manufacturing's positive contribution to profit growth fell to 0.3 percentage points, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, while traditional equipment manufacturing continued to negatively impact profit growth[5] Future Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized "expanding domestic demand" as a key task for economic development in the coming year, with a focus on boosting consumption and effective investment[21] - The combination of policy effects is expected to lead to a moderate recovery in industrial enterprise profitability in 2024[21]

Core Insights - The report anticipates a strong opening market for A-shares, driven by continuous inflow of investment funds and a favorable macro liquidity environment in early 2025 [5][36] - The non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit significantly from the anticipated "opening red" market trend, with historical data supporting this outlook [5][36] - The low-altitude economy sector is highlighted as a promising investment area following the establishment of a dedicated department by the National Development and Reform Commission [5][36] Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a trend of active trading, with the securities sector likely to continue benefiting from this momentum [5][25] - The report notes a decrease in the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in November, but the decline is less severe compared to previous months, indicating a potential stabilization [5][14] - The report emphasizes that the first quarter of 2025 may see a recovery in domestic inventory levels, supported by fiscal measures [5][14] Industry Analysis - The report categorizes industries based on their performance expectations for 2025, identifying sectors such as automotive, machinery, computing, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals as having sustained growth potential [21][42] - The real estate sector is expected to show improved performance in 2025 due to a low base effect, although absolute profit levels may remain low [42] - The report identifies industries with weak performance elasticity, particularly in value-oriented sectors like banking and oil and gas, which are expected to lag in growth [43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on small-cap growth stocks that have performance expectation potential, as they are likely to be the main focus of the market during this period [5][36] - The low-altitude economy is recommended for investment, particularly in areas such as raw materials, core components, drones, and aviation management [5][36] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of the non-bank financial sector, which is expected to see strong catalysts in the upcoming market environment [5][25]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the transportation industry, particularly in the chemical shipping sector, indicating potential growth opportunities due to increasing demand from the petrochemical industry [4][8]. Core Insights - The chemical shipping capacity approved in 2023 and 2024 has decreased compared to 2022, with 33,500 dwt and 59,800 dwt approved respectively, down from 82,200 dwt in 2022 [4]. - The transportation of hazardous chemicals is primarily directed towards the petrochemical industry, with large refining enterprises being the main downstream customers [8]. - The report highlights that the chemical industry supply chain is crucial for maintaining the flow of the petrochemical sector, with significant waterway transportation demand generated from coastal refining bases [8]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the chemical industry chain's prosperity due to policy support aimed at boosting domestic demand [10]. Summary by Sections Chemical Shipping Capacity - The approved chemical shipping capacity has seen a decline, with significant reductions in new capacity compared to previous years [4]. - The average age of chemical ships has been analyzed, indicating a trend towards an aging fleet [3]. Petrochemical Industry Demand - The report emphasizes the importance of the petrochemical industry as a major driver for hazardous chemical transportation, detailing the supply chain from paraxylene (PX) to polyester products [8][10]. - The concentration of transportation categories is high, with the top ten hazardous chemicals accounting for 83.4% of the total transportation volume [10]. Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The report notes that the current price and inventory indicators in the chemical downstream industry are low, but anticipates a rebound in the industry due to favorable fiscal and monetary policies [10]. - The report provides insights into the growth of cargo throughput at major ports, with a year-on-year increase in both total and foreign trade cargo throughput [29]. Dividend and Investment Potential - The report highlights the attractive dividend yields of transportation companies, particularly in the highway and port sectors, as stable cash flows support dividend payments [35]. - The report indicates that the long-term decline in interest rates enhances the investment appeal of public transportation companies due to their monopolistic characteristics and stable cash flows [35].

稳增长政策有望持续发力，我们维持此前的大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗> 债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 ◼ 经济数据：国家统计局公布数据显示，11 月份，全国规模以上工业增加值 同比增长 5.4%，社会消费品零售总额增长 3.0%。1-11 月份，全国固定资 产投资同比增长 3.3%。（万得） ◼ 要闻：中央农村工作会议在京召开，国家主席习近平指出，做好 2025 年 "三农"工作，要进一步深化农村改革，全面推进乡村振兴；要严守耕地红 线，高质量推进高标准农田建设，确保粮食和重要农产品稳产保供；要积 极发展乡村富民产业，提高农业综合效益，壮大县域经济，拓宽农民增收 渠道，持续巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，坚决守住不发生规模性返贫致贫底线； 要扎实推进乡村建设，繁荣乡村文化，推进移风易俗，建设宜居宜业和美 乡村。（万得） ◼ 稳增长政策有望持续发力，我们维持此前的大类资产配置顺序：股票>大 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：陈琦 qi.chen@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110003 大类资产表现 货币类：货币基金收益率涨跌不一. 目 录 | ...

出口链：欧美补库+亚非拉投资需求旺盛，短期扰动不改长期向好趋势。由于受到高利率的压制，全球整体投资和消 费需求偏弱，分地区来看，欧美市场是主要的拖累的地区，亚非拉等国家需求明显要高于欧美。未来，欧美市场，随 着 2024 年下半年开始进入降息周期，叠加开启补库，欧美市场需求有望开启上升通道；亚非拉等新兴市场国家，近 年来制造业景气度较高，在海外制造业转移、基建投资旺盛、城镇化率稳步提升等影响下，未来出口潜力仍然较大。 尽管短期地缘政治和关税政策等对我国出口会有所扰动，但一方面亚非拉天然与美国加关税关联不大，另一方面欧美 需求复苏抵消部分扰动，因此不改长期向好趋势。 本报告准确表述了证券分析师的个人观点。该证券分析师声明，本人未在公司内、外部机构兼任有损本人独立性与客 观性的其他职务，没有担任本报告评论的上市公司的董事、监事或高级管理人员；也不拥有与该上市公司有关的任何 财务权益；本报告评论的上市公司或其它第三方都没有或没有承诺向本人提供与本报告有关的任何补偿或其它利益。 沪深市场基准指数为沪深 300 指数；新三板市场基准指数为三板成指或三板做市指数；香港市场基准指数为恒生指数 或恒生中国企业指数；美股市场基 ...

医药板块估值表现 风险提示 . 2 医药板块整体行情 医药子板块整体行情 2024 年 12 月 24 日 医药生物行业周报 4 截至 2024 年 12 月 20 日，申万医药生物板块市盈率（TTM）为 27.06 倍，和 2024 年 7 月-8 月估值 低谷相比已有明显回升。 在 2024.12.15-2024.12.20 期间，股价涨幅前十名的包括爱朋医疗（+24.63%）、翰宇药业（+22.62%）、 创新医疗（+20.17%）、乐心医疗（+16.35%）、科兴制药（+15.03%）、开开实业（+14.76%）、康 为世纪（+11.94%）、睿昂基因（+9.28%）、重药控股（+8.64%）、中源协和（+7.70%）。 CXO 行业有望迎来回暖 政策方面，国内创新药发展的政策环境在 2024 年向好，创新药在 2024 年作为新兴产业首次在《政 府工作报告》中被提及。2024 年 7 月，国务院常务会议审议通过了《全链条支持创新药发展实施方 案》。在政策加持下创新药研发热度有望回升，从而带动 CXO 行业的回暖。 此外，一些新兴领域的出现为医药行业带来了新的增长动力，例如抗体药物偶联物（ADC）和多 ...

资料来源：同花顺，中银证券 资料来源：同花顺，中银证券 图表 5. 一、二、三四线城市新房成交套数同比增速分别 图表 6. 一、二、三四线城市新房成交面积同比增速分 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------|---------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment industry maintains a "stronger than market" rating for 2025, supported by domestic demand recovery and overseas demand trends [30]. Core Insights - The industry is expected to benefit from a combination of domestic policy support, infrastructure investment, and a recovery in global demand, particularly in engineering machinery, wind power equipment, general equipment, and export chains [30]. - The engineering machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with excavator sales in China increasing by 9.80% domestically and 15.10% overall in October 2024 [79]. - Wind power equipment is projected to grow due to ongoing domestic offshore wind projects and increasing overseas orders for components [30]. - General equipment is anticipated to see a recovery driven by policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand [30]. - The export chain is expected to benefit from a recovery in the European and American markets, alongside strong demand from Asia, Africa, and Latin America [30]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - Domestic and overseas demand is showing a synchronized recovery, with excavator sales in the first ten months of 2024 reaching 164,172 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.47% [79]. - The domestic market is supported by policies aimed at stabilizing real estate and promoting equipment upgrades [30]. Wind Power Equipment - The domestic wind power sector is experiencing a significant increase in installed capacity, with 45.80 GW added in the first ten months of 2024, a 22.76% year-on-year increase [30]. - The industry is expected to see a small "rush to install" in the next two years as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its end, with a total planned capacity of over 320 GW [4]. General Equipment - The manufacturing sector's fixed asset investment growth has stabilized, with a manufacturing PMI returning above the growth line, indicating a weak recovery [30]. - Policies aimed at counter-cyclical adjustments are expected to support domestic demand recovery [30]. Export Chain - The overall demand in the global market is weak due to high interest rates, but demand in Asia, Africa, and Latin America remains strong [20]. - The recovery in the European and American markets is anticipated to begin in the second half of 2024, driven by interest rate cuts and inventory replenishment [30]. Mergers and Acquisitions - A series of policies emphasizing mergers and acquisitions are expected to create opportunities in the mechanical equipment sector, with a focus on high-quality development [27].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock price will exceed the benchmark index by more than 20% in the next 6-12 months [32]. Core Insights - The global electric vehicle market is expected to maintain high growth, with 2025 sales projected to exceed 22 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 23% [126][155]. - The domestic electric vehicle market is also anticipated to grow significantly, with sales expected to reach 15.63 million units in 2025, a 25% increase from the previous year [126]. - The report highlights the increasing market share of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which are projected to continue gaining traction due to their cost advantages [135][139]. Summary by Sections Battery Installation and Market Trends - In the first ten months of 2024, the installation of ternary batteries reached 111.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, while LFP batteries saw installations of 294.5 GWh, up 46.7% [1]. - The report notes that the price of power batteries has stabilized, with LFP cells priced around 0.4 CNY/Wh and ternary cells at 0.42 CNY/Wh, providing a rigid support for prices [2]. Supply Chain and Production Capacity - The report indicates that the supply side is controlling incremental growth, with market concentration expected to favor leading companies [3]. - Government policies have been introduced to limit new production capacity, emphasizing the need for technological innovation and quality improvement [4]. Solid-State Battery Developments - Solid-state batteries are gaining attention, with several companies, including SAIC and CATL, announcing production timelines, with 2027 being a critical year for mass production capabilities [5]. Material Prices and Profitability - The report discusses the stabilization of material prices, with expectations for profitability to recover as the market adjusts [68]. - The prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have shown signs of stabilization, which is crucial for the overall battery production cost [6]. Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is shifting, with leading companies maintaining strong positions while smaller players face challenges due to price competition [139][205]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and cost management for companies to sustain profitability in a competitive market [197]. Future Outlook - The report projects that the demand for electric vehicles will continue to rise, driven by policy support and technological advancements, with a focus on high-performance battery materials [57][126]. - The anticipated recovery in profitability for battery manufacturers is expected to occur as the market stabilizes and demand increases [215].