出口链：欧美补库+亚非拉投资需求旺盛，短期扰动不改长期向好趋势。由于受到高利率的压制，全球整体投资和消 费需求偏弱，分地区来看，欧美市场是主要的拖累的地区，亚非拉等国家需求明显要高于欧美。未来，欧美市场，随 着 2024 年下半年开始进入降息周期，叠加开启补库，欧美市场需求有望开启上升通道；亚非拉等新兴市场国家，近 年来制造业景气度较高，在海外制造业转移、基建投资旺盛、城镇化率稳步提升等影响下，未来出口潜力仍然较大。 尽管短期地缘政治和关税政策等对我国出口会有所扰动，但一方面亚非拉天然与美国加关税关联不大，另一方面欧美 需求复苏抵消部分扰动，因此不改长期向好趋势。 本报告准确表述了证券分析师的个人观点。该证券分析师声明，本人未在公司内、外部机构兼任有损本人独立性与客 观性的其他职务，没有担任本报告评论的上市公司的董事、监事或高级管理人员；也不拥有与该上市公司有关的任何 财务权益；本报告评论的上市公司或其它第三方都没有或没有承诺向本人提供与本报告有关的任何补偿或其它利益。 沪深市场基准指数为沪深 300 指数；新三板市场基准指数为三板成指或三板做市指数；香港市场基准指数为恒生指数 或恒生中国企业指数；美股市场基 ...

医药板块估值表现 风险提示 . 2 医药板块整体行情 医药子板块整体行情 2024 年 12 月 24 日 医药生物行业周报 4 截至 2024 年 12 月 20 日，申万医药生物板块市盈率（TTM）为 27.06 倍，和 2024 年 7 月-8 月估值 低谷相比已有明显回升。 在 2024.12.15-2024.12.20 期间，股价涨幅前十名的包括爱朋医疗（+24.63%）、翰宇药业（+22.62%）、 创新医疗（+20.17%）、乐心医疗（+16.35%）、科兴制药（+15.03%）、开开实业（+14.76%）、康 为世纪（+11.94%）、睿昂基因（+9.28%）、重药控股（+8.64%）、中源协和（+7.70%）。 CXO 行业有望迎来回暖 政策方面，国内创新药发展的政策环境在 2024 年向好，创新药在 2024 年作为新兴产业首次在《政 府工作报告》中被提及。2024 年 7 月，国务院常务会议审议通过了《全链条支持创新药发展实施方 案》。在政策加持下创新药研发热度有望回升，从而带动 CXO 行业的回暖。 此外，一些新兴领域的出现为医药行业带来了新的增长动力，例如抗体药物偶联物（ADC）和多 ...

资料来源：同花顺，中银证券 资料来源：同花顺，中银证券 图表 5. 一、二、三四线城市新房成交套数同比增速分别 图表 6. 一、二、三四线城市新房成交面积同比增速分 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------|---------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment industry maintains a "stronger than market" rating for 2025, supported by domestic demand recovery and overseas demand trends [30]. Core Insights - The industry is expected to benefit from a combination of domestic policy support, infrastructure investment, and a recovery in global demand, particularly in engineering machinery, wind power equipment, general equipment, and export chains [30]. - The engineering machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with excavator sales in China increasing by 9.80% domestically and 15.10% overall in October 2024 [79]. - Wind power equipment is projected to grow due to ongoing domestic offshore wind projects and increasing overseas orders for components [30]. - General equipment is anticipated to see a recovery driven by policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand [30]. - The export chain is expected to benefit from a recovery in the European and American markets, alongside strong demand from Asia, Africa, and Latin America [30]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - Domestic and overseas demand is showing a synchronized recovery, with excavator sales in the first ten months of 2024 reaching 164,172 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.47% [79]. - The domestic market is supported by policies aimed at stabilizing real estate and promoting equipment upgrades [30]. Wind Power Equipment - The domestic wind power sector is experiencing a significant increase in installed capacity, with 45.80 GW added in the first ten months of 2024, a 22.76% year-on-year increase [30]. - The industry is expected to see a small "rush to install" in the next two years as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its end, with a total planned capacity of over 320 GW [4]. General Equipment - The manufacturing sector's fixed asset investment growth has stabilized, with a manufacturing PMI returning above the growth line, indicating a weak recovery [30]. - Policies aimed at counter-cyclical adjustments are expected to support domestic demand recovery [30]. Export Chain - The overall demand in the global market is weak due to high interest rates, but demand in Asia, Africa, and Latin America remains strong [20]. - The recovery in the European and American markets is anticipated to begin in the second half of 2024, driven by interest rate cuts and inventory replenishment [30]. Mergers and Acquisitions - A series of policies emphasizing mergers and acquisitions are expected to create opportunities in the mechanical equipment sector, with a focus on high-quality development [27].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock price will exceed the benchmark index by more than 20% in the next 6-12 months [32]. Core Insights - The global electric vehicle market is expected to maintain high growth, with 2025 sales projected to exceed 22 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 23% [126][155]. - The domestic electric vehicle market is also anticipated to grow significantly, with sales expected to reach 15.63 million units in 2025, a 25% increase from the previous year [126]. - The report highlights the increasing market share of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which are projected to continue gaining traction due to their cost advantages [135][139]. Summary by Sections Battery Installation and Market Trends - In the first ten months of 2024, the installation of ternary batteries reached 111.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, while LFP batteries saw installations of 294.5 GWh, up 46.7% [1]. - The report notes that the price of power batteries has stabilized, with LFP cells priced around 0.4 CNY/Wh and ternary cells at 0.42 CNY/Wh, providing a rigid support for prices [2]. Supply Chain and Production Capacity - The report indicates that the supply side is controlling incremental growth, with market concentration expected to favor leading companies [3]. - Government policies have been introduced to limit new production capacity, emphasizing the need for technological innovation and quality improvement [4]. Solid-State Battery Developments - Solid-state batteries are gaining attention, with several companies, including SAIC and CATL, announcing production timelines, with 2027 being a critical year for mass production capabilities [5]. Material Prices and Profitability - The report discusses the stabilization of material prices, with expectations for profitability to recover as the market adjusts [68]. - The prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have shown signs of stabilization, which is crucial for the overall battery production cost [6]. Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is shifting, with leading companies maintaining strong positions while smaller players face challenges due to price competition [139][205]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and cost management for companies to sustain profitability in a competitive market [197]. Future Outlook - The report projects that the demand for electric vehicles will continue to rise, driven by policy support and technological advancements, with a focus on high-performance battery materials [57][126]. - The anticipated recovery in profitability for battery manufacturers is expected to occur as the market stabilizes and demand increases [215].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the social services industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the coming months [50]. Core Insights - The social services sector experienced a decline of 0.41% in the last two trading weeks, ranking 11th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification. However, it outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.73 percentage points [50][90]. - Recent policy changes, such as the optimization of the transit visa policy, are expected to stimulate inbound tourism demand, which is seen as a positive development for the industry [50][76]. - The report highlights the performance of various sub-sectors, with hotel and catering showing an increase of 1.06%, while education saw a decline of 2.52% [68][90]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the last two trading weeks, the social services sector saw a median stock performance of -0.52%, with 36 out of 75 companies in the sector experiencing gains [39]. - The overall market, including the Shanghai Composite Index, saw a decline of 1.06%, while the CSI 300 fell by 1.14% [50][66]. Sub-sector Analysis - The hotel and catering sub-sector increased by 1.06%, while the tourism and scenic spots sub-sector rose by 0.48%. In contrast, the education sub-sector decreased by 2.52% [68][90]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the social services industry is 24.45, which is relatively high compared to the CSI 300's P/E of 12.15 [69]. Industry News - The report notes significant policy changes, including the extension of the transit visa stay period to 240 hours, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of inbound tourism [19][50]. - The report also discusses the upcoming holiday season, indicating that short trips and local tourism will likely dominate travel patterns during this period [76]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the travel and tourism sector, such as Huangshan Tourism and Lijiang Shares, as well as hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel [50][76].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|----------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n市场指数 指数名称 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n收盘价 | 涨跌 % | 2024 年 12 月 23 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241223 | | 上证综指 | | 3368.07 (0.06) | | | | 深证成指 | | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of RMB 9.54, and it is rated as "stronger than the market" [20][26]. Core Views - The company is entering a new development phase with the completion of leadership transition and the acquisition of Shanzhong Construction Machinery, which is expected to enhance growth potential [14]. - The new leadership team has extensive experience in mechanical manufacturing, which is anticipated to accelerate the company's development [14]. - The acquisition of Shanzhong Construction Machinery is projected to significantly increase the company's earnings per share (EPS) in the short term and expand its operational scale in the long term, diversifying revenue sources and enhancing competitiveness [14]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 10,541 million in 2023 to RMB 14,367 million in 2024, representing a growth rate of 36.3% [3]. - The net profit is expected to increase from RMB 765 million in 2023 to RMB 1,097 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 43.3% [3]. - The latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 0.73 in 2024, up from RMB 0.51 in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 43.3% [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 18.7 in 2023 to 13.1 in 2024, indicating improved valuation [3]. Valuation - The company’s estimated revenue for 2024-2026 is RMB 143.67 billion, RMB 168.13 billion, and RMB 189.21 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 10.97 billion, RMB 14.22 billion, and RMB 16.82 billion [14]. - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is RMB 0.73, RMB 0.95, and RMB 1.12, with P/E ratios of 13.1, 10.1, and 8.5 respectively [14].

Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "stronger than the market" for 2025, anticipating significant positive changes driven by innovation and policy support [47][70]. Core Insights - The computer industry is expected to experience performance and market value improvements due to fundamental enhancements and rapid technological advancements, particularly in sectors like robotics, intelligent driving, generative AI applications, and low-altitude economy [70][35]. - The report highlights a shift in demand for government IT solutions, with expectations of a recovery in 2025, supported by recent policy changes aimed at alleviating financial pressures [4][74]. - The domestic software ecosystem is maturing, with a focus on opportunities in operating systems and database software, particularly the HarmonyOS and domestic database solutions [46][21]. Summary by Sections Government IT Solutions - The easing of debt pressure on government entities is expected to significantly benefit sectors like computer information technology and e-government systems, with a projected market growth rate of 15.5% to 26.8% from 2024 to 2026 [4][74]. - Recent government procurement projects indicate a strong demand for IT solutions, with a notable budget of 240 million yuan for a unified government information project [4][74]. Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction, with Chinese companies like EHang making significant strides in international markets, indicating a high acceptance of low-altitude operations abroad [8][6]. Data Elements - The construction of trusted data spaces is accelerating, with a goal to establish over 100 such spaces by 2028, enhancing the infrastructure for data circulation and utilization [10][12]. - The data trading market is experiencing rapid growth, with projections indicating a data transaction volume exceeding 4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [12][13]. Domestic AI and Software - Domestic AI computing chip companies are increasingly entering the capital market, with several notable firms preparing for IPOs, indicating a robust growth trajectory in this sector [15][47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic database software, with a high replacement rate in government sectors and significant opportunities in the financial industry [21][46]. Robotics and Intelligent Driving - The robotics sector, particularly humanoid and exoskeleton robots, is expected to see dual-line development, with substantial investment activity indicating a vibrant market [60][52]. - The intelligent driving market is projected to expand significantly, with L3 market penetration expected to reach 4.6% by 2025, reflecting a growing acceptance of advanced driving technologies [67][73].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Insights - The upcoming "Two New" policies are expected to be introduced, which will support continued growth in new energy installations [1]. - In the photovoltaic sector, supply-side reforms are ongoing, with the central economic work conference emphasizing the need to regulate competition and strengthen supply-side reforms. Despite high inventory levels of silicon materials, attempts to raise prices have begun, and the overall price trend in the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to gradually recover [1]. - The wind power sector is anticipated to see steady progress in domestic offshore and onshore bidding and construction, with improved demand expected to drive profitability in the complete machine and component segments [1]. - The new energy vehicle market is projected to see significant year-on-year sales growth in 2024, supported by trade-in policies, which will further boost demand in 2025 [1]. - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its development, benefiting companies involved in battery, material, and equipment sectors [1]. - The domestic power system reform is expected to accelerate the construction of ultra-high voltage and main grid projects, maintaining high demand for related grid equipment [1]. - The hydrogen energy sector is being driven by supportive policies, with a focus on companies that have cost and technological advantages in electrolyzer production and those benefiting from hydrogen infrastructure development [1]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - The Ministry of Commerce is working on formulating the "Two New" policies for the upcoming year, with significant vehicle scrappage and replacement statistics reported [1][32]. - Companies like CATL are expanding their battery swap business, and there are plans for new vehicle models featuring solid-state batteries [1][36] [33]. Photovoltaic and Wind Power - In 2024, China added 206.3 GW of new photovoltaic capacity, a year-on-year increase of 25.88%, and 51.75 GW of new wind power capacity, up 25.03% [1][37]. - Major projects in offshore wind power are underway, with significant capacity being developed [1][39]. Company Developments - Companies such as JinkoSolar and GCL-Poly are making strategic investments in solar cell and module production capacity, with significant project investments reported [1][41]. - CATL is considering a secondary listing in Hong Kong to raise at least $5 billion [1][35]. - Other companies are also engaging in various strategic partnerships and project developments to enhance their market positions [1][41].