Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the social services industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the coming months [50]. Core Insights - The social services sector experienced a decline of 0.41% in the last two trading weeks, ranking 11th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification. However, it outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.73 percentage points [50][90]. - Recent policy changes, such as the optimization of the transit visa policy, are expected to stimulate inbound tourism demand, which is seen as a positive development for the industry [50][76]. - The report highlights the performance of various sub-sectors, with hotel and catering showing an increase of 1.06%, while education saw a decline of 2.52% [68][90]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the last two trading weeks, the social services sector saw a median stock performance of -0.52%, with 36 out of 75 companies in the sector experiencing gains [39]. - The overall market, including the Shanghai Composite Index, saw a decline of 1.06%, while the CSI 300 fell by 1.14% [50][66]. Sub-sector Analysis - The hotel and catering sub-sector increased by 1.06%, while the tourism and scenic spots sub-sector rose by 0.48%. In contrast, the education sub-sector decreased by 2.52% [68][90]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the social services industry is 24.45, which is relatively high compared to the CSI 300's P/E of 12.15 [69]. Industry News - The report notes significant policy changes, including the extension of the transit visa stay period to 240 hours, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of inbound tourism [19][50]. - The report also discusses the upcoming holiday season, indicating that short trips and local tourism will likely dominate travel patterns during this period [76]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the travel and tourism sector, such as Huangshan Tourism and Lijiang Shares, as well as hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel [50][76].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|----------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n市场指数 指数名称 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n收盘价 | 涨跌 % | 2024 年 12 月 23 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241223 | | 上证综指 | | 3368.07 (0.06) | | | | 深证成指 | | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of RMB 9.54, and it is rated as "stronger than the market" [20][26]. Core Views - The company is entering a new development phase with the completion of leadership transition and the acquisition of Shanzhong Construction Machinery, which is expected to enhance growth potential [14]. - The new leadership team has extensive experience in mechanical manufacturing, which is anticipated to accelerate the company's development [14]. - The acquisition of Shanzhong Construction Machinery is projected to significantly increase the company's earnings per share (EPS) in the short term and expand its operational scale in the long term, diversifying revenue sources and enhancing competitiveness [14]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 10,541 million in 2023 to RMB 14,367 million in 2024, representing a growth rate of 36.3% [3]. - The net profit is expected to increase from RMB 765 million in 2023 to RMB 1,097 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 43.3% [3]. - The latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 0.73 in 2024, up from RMB 0.51 in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 43.3% [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 18.7 in 2023 to 13.1 in 2024, indicating improved valuation [3]. Valuation - The company’s estimated revenue for 2024-2026 is RMB 143.67 billion, RMB 168.13 billion, and RMB 189.21 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 10.97 billion, RMB 14.22 billion, and RMB 16.82 billion [14]. - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is RMB 0.73, RMB 0.95, and RMB 1.12, with P/E ratios of 13.1, 10.1, and 8.5 respectively [14].

Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "stronger than the market" for 2025, anticipating significant positive changes driven by innovation and policy support [47][70]. Core Insights - The computer industry is expected to experience performance and market value improvements due to fundamental enhancements and rapid technological advancements, particularly in sectors like robotics, intelligent driving, generative AI applications, and low-altitude economy [70][35]. - The report highlights a shift in demand for government IT solutions, with expectations of a recovery in 2025, supported by recent policy changes aimed at alleviating financial pressures [4][74]. - The domestic software ecosystem is maturing, with a focus on opportunities in operating systems and database software, particularly the HarmonyOS and domestic database solutions [46][21]. Summary by Sections Government IT Solutions - The easing of debt pressure on government entities is expected to significantly benefit sectors like computer information technology and e-government systems, with a projected market growth rate of 15.5% to 26.8% from 2024 to 2026 [4][74]. - Recent government procurement projects indicate a strong demand for IT solutions, with a notable budget of 240 million yuan for a unified government information project [4][74]. Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction, with Chinese companies like EHang making significant strides in international markets, indicating a high acceptance of low-altitude operations abroad [8][6]. Data Elements - The construction of trusted data spaces is accelerating, with a goal to establish over 100 such spaces by 2028, enhancing the infrastructure for data circulation and utilization [10][12]. - The data trading market is experiencing rapid growth, with projections indicating a data transaction volume exceeding 4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [12][13]. Domestic AI and Software - Domestic AI computing chip companies are increasingly entering the capital market, with several notable firms preparing for IPOs, indicating a robust growth trajectory in this sector [15][47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic database software, with a high replacement rate in government sectors and significant opportunities in the financial industry [21][46]. Robotics and Intelligent Driving - The robotics sector, particularly humanoid and exoskeleton robots, is expected to see dual-line development, with substantial investment activity indicating a vibrant market [60][52]. - The intelligent driving market is projected to expand significantly, with L3 market penetration expected to reach 4.6% by 2025, reflecting a growing acceptance of advanced driving technologies [67][73].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Insights - The upcoming "Two New" policies are expected to be introduced, which will support continued growth in new energy installations [1]. - In the photovoltaic sector, supply-side reforms are ongoing, with the central economic work conference emphasizing the need to regulate competition and strengthen supply-side reforms. Despite high inventory levels of silicon materials, attempts to raise prices have begun, and the overall price trend in the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to gradually recover [1]. - The wind power sector is anticipated to see steady progress in domestic offshore and onshore bidding and construction, with improved demand expected to drive profitability in the complete machine and component segments [1]. - The new energy vehicle market is projected to see significant year-on-year sales growth in 2024, supported by trade-in policies, which will further boost demand in 2025 [1]. - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its development, benefiting companies involved in battery, material, and equipment sectors [1]. - The domestic power system reform is expected to accelerate the construction of ultra-high voltage and main grid projects, maintaining high demand for related grid equipment [1]. - The hydrogen energy sector is being driven by supportive policies, with a focus on companies that have cost and technological advantages in electrolyzer production and those benefiting from hydrogen infrastructure development [1]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - The Ministry of Commerce is working on formulating the "Two New" policies for the upcoming year, with significant vehicle scrappage and replacement statistics reported [1][32]. - Companies like CATL are expanding their battery swap business, and there are plans for new vehicle models featuring solid-state batteries [1][36] [33]. Photovoltaic and Wind Power - In 2024, China added 206.3 GW of new photovoltaic capacity, a year-on-year increase of 25.88%, and 51.75 GW of new wind power capacity, up 25.03% [1][37]. - Major projects in offshore wind power are underway, with significant capacity being developed [1][39]. Company Developments - Companies such as JinkoSolar and GCL-Poly are making strategic investments in solar cell and module production capacity, with significant project investments reported [1][41]. - CATL is considering a secondary listing in Hong Kong to raise at least $5 billion [1][35]. - Other companies are also engaging in various strategic partnerships and project developments to enhance their market positions [1][41].

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [13] Core Views - The report highlights the need to focus on high-demand sectors such as refrigerants and vitamins, while also suggesting to pay attention to undervalued leading companies in the industry and the light hydrocracking sub-sector [13][53] - It emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and shareholder returns, recommending large energy state-owned enterprises and related oil service companies for their reform and performance improvement [13][53] - The report notes that the overall macroeconomic outlook is improving, which could benefit various sectors within the chemical industry [13][53] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report indicates that in the week of December 16-22, 2024, among 101 tracked chemical products, 28 saw price increases, 44 experienced declines, and 29 remained stable [53] - International oil prices have decreased, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $69.55 per barrel, down 2.17% for the week [53] - The report mentions that the demand for gasoline in the U.S. has increased, contributing to a rise in overall refined oil demand [53] Company Performance - The report discusses a specific company that achieved revenue of 1.18 billion yuan in functional wet electronic chemicals in the first half of 2024, marking an 80.94% year-on-year increase [9] - The company is expanding its product lines in various sectors, including advanced cleaning solutions and electroplating liquids, and is making progress in establishing a self-controlled supply of core raw materials [9] - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2024 was 797 million yuan, a 38.68% increase year-on-year, although net profit saw a slight decline [27][28] Price Trends - The report notes that vitamin prices have decreased, with the average market price for VA at 133 yuan per kilogram, down 8.28% from the previous week, but up 92.75% year-to-date [53] - Conversely, the price of maleic anhydride has increased, with the average market price reaching 6,971 yuan per ton, an 18.99% increase from the previous week [53] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with sustained demand growth, such as fluorochemicals and animal nutrition, as well as companies involved in semiconductor materials due to potential recovery [53] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and Wanhu Chemical, among others [53]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the AIGC applications are entering a phase of demand expansion, with the cost of using large models like Doubao decreasing, which will further enhance the cost-effectiveness of these models and stimulate demand across the AI industry chain [11] - The report indicates that the small-cap internal sub-styles have completed a full rotation, with the small-cap style experiencing increased volatility and a potential shift in market dynamics [59][60] - The report emphasizes the performance of the technology sector, particularly in communications, electronics, and computing, which have shown significant weekly gains driven by key events and market expectations [39] Industry Analysis - The robotics industry is undergoing significant changes, with major players like BYD entering the field of embodied intelligence, focusing on deep learning and robotics, which could lead to a comprehensive upgrade in robotic capabilities [13] - The report notes that the performance of companies in the new productivity sectors, such as electronic components and semiconductor equipment, has been strong, with a high percentage of profit warnings indicating positive earnings growth expectations [26] - The report discusses the overall market sentiment, indicating that the A-share market is experiencing a net sell-off, particularly in non-bank financials and machinery sectors, which could impact future investment strategies [44] Market Trends - The report outlines that the market is expected to enter a cross-year configuration phase, with a focus on the potential for a recovery in large-cap stocks, while small-cap stocks may continue to dominate in the short term [52] - The report highlights the recent improvement in real estate sales, suggesting that previous policies are beginning to support demand, which could positively influence related sectors [51] - The report indicates that the overall market structure is likely to continue favoring small-cap stocks and thematic investments until clearer signals of economic recovery emerge [60]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector's valuation stabilized after hitting a historical low in September 2024, with a PE-TTM of 21.5X as of December 1, 2024, compared to 26.2X a year earlier [1][30] - The sector remains underweight in fund holdings, with a decrease in allocation to 7.9% in Q3 2024, indicating a low allocation status compared to other industries [1][17] - The report highlights structural investment opportunities in various sub-industries, particularly as the restaurant sector recovers [1] Summary by Sections Valuation - The food and beverage sector's valuation decreased year-on-year due to economic changes and weak consumer confidence, with a PE-TTM of 21.5X as of December 1, 2024, down from 26.2X the previous year [1][30] - The sector's valuation has rebounded from a low of 17.0X in September 2024, which was at the 0.3% historical percentile over the past five years [1][30] Fund Holdings - The food and beverage sector is currently in a low allocation state, with a 4.0 percentage point decrease from Q1 2024 and a 0.5 percentage point decrease from Q2 2024 [1][17] Alcohol Industry - The report anticipates a more pragmatic operational goal for liquor companies in 2025, with a focus on destocking and improving profitability as channel pressures ease [1] - The white liquor sector showed revenue and net profit growth rates of 9.2% and 10.7% respectively for the first three quarters of 2024, but experienced a significant slowdown in Q3 2024 [1][38] Consumer Goods - The report identifies an upward trend in the consumer goods sector, benefiting from the recovery of the restaurant industry, with specific recommendations for various sub-industries [1] - The beer industry is expected to see profit recovery due to structural upgrades and cost advantages continuing into 2025 [1][19] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Qingdao Beer, with a focus on companies that are well-positioned to capitalize on the recovery in consumer demand [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [11][16]. Core Insights - The development of AI applications is not meeting expectations, leading to lower capital expenditures from downstream customers and intensified industry competition [1]. - ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) is expected to become a key focus for computational power investment, particularly in the transition from the pre-training era to the inference era in AI [9]. - The ASIC market is projected to grow significantly, with Broadcom's AI business revenue expected to increase by 220% year-on-year to $12.2 billion in fiscal year 2024, and Marvell's data center business revenue expected to grow by 98% year-on-year [9]. - The data center ASIC market is forecasted to expand from $6.6 billion in 2023 to $42.9 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 45% [9]. Summary by Sections ASIC Market Potential - ASICs are tailored for specific applications, offering advantages in performance, power consumption, and size, making them more cost-effective than GPUs in large-scale deployments [9]. - The demand for ASICs is expected to rise, with companies like Broadcom and Marvell leading the market [9]. Beneficiaries of ASIC Growth - Three main lines of companies are likely to benefit from the rising demand for ASICs: 1. Companies directly related to Broadcom's supply chain [9]. 2. Domestic companies with ASIC technology, such as CloudWalk Technology and Cambrian [9]. 3. Companies in the ASIC-related supply chain, including those involved in active cables and PCB manufacturing [9]. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on companies directly related to Broadcom's supply chain, domestic ASIC technology firms, and ASIC-related supply chain companies [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Insights - The recent relaxation and optimization of visa-free transit policies for foreigners is expected to boost air travel demand and facilitate a steady recovery in international flight volumes. The policy allows foreigners to stay in China for up to 240 hours (10 days) and adds 21 new ports for visa-free entry and exit [5][16]. - The civil aviation passenger volume in China is projected to exceed pre-pandemic levels for the first time in 2024, surpassing 700 million passengers. The average annual growth rate of civil aviation passenger volume from 2014 to 2019 was 11%, with 2019 seeing 660 million passengers [5][16]. - The number of outbound trips by Chinese residents is expected to steadily increase, with 2023 seeing a recovery to 59.7% of pre-pandemic levels. The compound annual growth rate for outbound trips over the past 25 years was 20.16% [5][16]. - Domestic tourism numbers have shown a strong recovery, reaching 81.42% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023, with a historical average growth rate of 10.25% over the past 25 years [5][16]. - There is significant potential for growth in air travel per capita in China, with the projected average number of flights per person in 2024 being 0.52, compared to 2.82 in the U.S. in 2019. If per capita flights increase to 1, there is potential for a doubling of air travel demand [5][16]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The relaxation of visa policies is expected to enhance air travel demand and stimulate international flight recovery [5][16]. Market Recovery - Civil aviation passenger volume is set to exceed 700 million in 2024, marking a recovery beyond pre-pandemic levels [5][16]. Outbound Travel - Outbound travel is recovering, with 2023 figures at 59.7% of pre-pandemic levels, indicating a positive trend for future growth [5][16]. Domestic Tourism - Domestic tourism has rebounded significantly, with 2023 numbers at 81.42% of pre-pandemic levels, reflecting strong consumer demand [5][16]. Growth Potential - There is substantial room for growth in air travel per capita, suggesting a doubling of demand if per capita flights reach 1 [5][16].