Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [13] Core Views - The report highlights the need to focus on high-demand sectors such as refrigerants and vitamins, while also suggesting to pay attention to undervalued leading companies in the industry and the light hydrocracking sub-sector [13][53] - It emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and shareholder returns, recommending large energy state-owned enterprises and related oil service companies for their reform and performance improvement [13][53] - The report notes that the overall macroeconomic outlook is improving, which could benefit various sectors within the chemical industry [13][53] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report indicates that in the week of December 16-22, 2024, among 101 tracked chemical products, 28 saw price increases, 44 experienced declines, and 29 remained stable [53] - International oil prices have decreased, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $69.55 per barrel, down 2.17% for the week [53] - The report mentions that the demand for gasoline in the U.S. has increased, contributing to a rise in overall refined oil demand [53] Company Performance - The report discusses a specific company that achieved revenue of 1.18 billion yuan in functional wet electronic chemicals in the first half of 2024, marking an 80.94% year-on-year increase [9] - The company is expanding its product lines in various sectors, including advanced cleaning solutions and electroplating liquids, and is making progress in establishing a self-controlled supply of core raw materials [9] - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2024 was 797 million yuan, a 38.68% increase year-on-year, although net profit saw a slight decline [27][28] Price Trends - The report notes that vitamin prices have decreased, with the average market price for VA at 133 yuan per kilogram, down 8.28% from the previous week, but up 92.75% year-to-date [53] - Conversely, the price of maleic anhydride has increased, with the average market price reaching 6,971 yuan per ton, an 18.99% increase from the previous week [53] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with sustained demand growth, such as fluorochemicals and animal nutrition, as well as companies involved in semiconductor materials due to potential recovery [53] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and Wanhu Chemical, among others [53]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the AIGC applications are entering a phase of demand expansion, with the cost of using large models like Doubao decreasing, which will further enhance the cost-effectiveness of these models and stimulate demand across the AI industry chain [11] - The report indicates that the small-cap internal sub-styles have completed a full rotation, with the small-cap style experiencing increased volatility and a potential shift in market dynamics [59][60] - The report emphasizes the performance of the technology sector, particularly in communications, electronics, and computing, which have shown significant weekly gains driven by key events and market expectations [39] Industry Analysis - The robotics industry is undergoing significant changes, with major players like BYD entering the field of embodied intelligence, focusing on deep learning and robotics, which could lead to a comprehensive upgrade in robotic capabilities [13] - The report notes that the performance of companies in the new productivity sectors, such as electronic components and semiconductor equipment, has been strong, with a high percentage of profit warnings indicating positive earnings growth expectations [26] - The report discusses the overall market sentiment, indicating that the A-share market is experiencing a net sell-off, particularly in non-bank financials and machinery sectors, which could impact future investment strategies [44] Market Trends - The report outlines that the market is expected to enter a cross-year configuration phase, with a focus on the potential for a recovery in large-cap stocks, while small-cap stocks may continue to dominate in the short term [52] - The report highlights the recent improvement in real estate sales, suggesting that previous policies are beginning to support demand, which could positively influence related sectors [51] - The report indicates that the overall market structure is likely to continue favoring small-cap stocks and thematic investments until clearer signals of economic recovery emerge [60]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector's valuation stabilized after hitting a historical low in September 2024, with a PE-TTM of 21.5X as of December 1, 2024, compared to 26.2X a year earlier [1][30] - The sector remains underweight in fund holdings, with a decrease in allocation to 7.9% in Q3 2024, indicating a low allocation status compared to other industries [1][17] - The report highlights structural investment opportunities in various sub-industries, particularly as the restaurant sector recovers [1] Summary by Sections Valuation - The food and beverage sector's valuation decreased year-on-year due to economic changes and weak consumer confidence, with a PE-TTM of 21.5X as of December 1, 2024, down from 26.2X the previous year [1][30] - The sector's valuation has rebounded from a low of 17.0X in September 2024, which was at the 0.3% historical percentile over the past five years [1][30] Fund Holdings - The food and beverage sector is currently in a low allocation state, with a 4.0 percentage point decrease from Q1 2024 and a 0.5 percentage point decrease from Q2 2024 [1][17] Alcohol Industry - The report anticipates a more pragmatic operational goal for liquor companies in 2025, with a focus on destocking and improving profitability as channel pressures ease [1] - The white liquor sector showed revenue and net profit growth rates of 9.2% and 10.7% respectively for the first three quarters of 2024, but experienced a significant slowdown in Q3 2024 [1][38] Consumer Goods - The report identifies an upward trend in the consumer goods sector, benefiting from the recovery of the restaurant industry, with specific recommendations for various sub-industries [1] - The beer industry is expected to see profit recovery due to structural upgrades and cost advantages continuing into 2025 [1][19] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Qingdao Beer, with a focus on companies that are well-positioned to capitalize on the recovery in consumer demand [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [11][16]. Core Insights - The development of AI applications is not meeting expectations, leading to lower capital expenditures from downstream customers and intensified industry competition [1]. - ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) is expected to become a key focus for computational power investment, particularly in the transition from the pre-training era to the inference era in AI [9]. - The ASIC market is projected to grow significantly, with Broadcom's AI business revenue expected to increase by 220% year-on-year to $12.2 billion in fiscal year 2024, and Marvell's data center business revenue expected to grow by 98% year-on-year [9]. - The data center ASIC market is forecasted to expand from $6.6 billion in 2023 to $42.9 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 45% [9]. Summary by Sections ASIC Market Potential - ASICs are tailored for specific applications, offering advantages in performance, power consumption, and size, making them more cost-effective than GPUs in large-scale deployments [9]. - The demand for ASICs is expected to rise, with companies like Broadcom and Marvell leading the market [9]. Beneficiaries of ASIC Growth - Three main lines of companies are likely to benefit from the rising demand for ASICs: 1. Companies directly related to Broadcom's supply chain [9]. 2. Domestic companies with ASIC technology, such as CloudWalk Technology and Cambrian [9]. 3. Companies in the ASIC-related supply chain, including those involved in active cables and PCB manufacturing [9]. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on companies directly related to Broadcom's supply chain, domestic ASIC technology firms, and ASIC-related supply chain companies [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Insights - The recent relaxation and optimization of visa-free transit policies for foreigners is expected to boost air travel demand and facilitate a steady recovery in international flight volumes. The policy allows foreigners to stay in China for up to 240 hours (10 days) and adds 21 new ports for visa-free entry and exit [5][16]. - The civil aviation passenger volume in China is projected to exceed pre-pandemic levels for the first time in 2024, surpassing 700 million passengers. The average annual growth rate of civil aviation passenger volume from 2014 to 2019 was 11%, with 2019 seeing 660 million passengers [5][16]. - The number of outbound trips by Chinese residents is expected to steadily increase, with 2023 seeing a recovery to 59.7% of pre-pandemic levels. The compound annual growth rate for outbound trips over the past 25 years was 20.16% [5][16]. - Domestic tourism numbers have shown a strong recovery, reaching 81.42% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023, with a historical average growth rate of 10.25% over the past 25 years [5][16]. - There is significant potential for growth in air travel per capita in China, with the projected average number of flights per person in 2024 being 0.52, compared to 2.82 in the U.S. in 2019. If per capita flights increase to 1, there is potential for a doubling of air travel demand [5][16]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The relaxation of visa policies is expected to enhance air travel demand and stimulate international flight recovery [5][16]. Market Recovery - Civil aviation passenger volume is set to exceed 700 million in 2024, marking a recovery beyond pre-pandemic levels [5][16]. Outbound Travel - Outbound travel is recovering, with 2023 figures at 59.7% of pre-pandemic levels, indicating a positive trend for future growth [5][16]. Domestic Tourism - Domestic tourism has rebounded significantly, with 2023 numbers at 81.42% of pre-pandemic levels, reflecting strong consumer demand [5][16]. Growth Potential - There is substantial room for growth in air travel per capita, suggesting a doubling of demand if per capita flights reach 1 [5][16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][16]. Core Insights - November retail sales growth has slowed, with total retail sales reaching 43,763 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a month-on-month decrease of 1.8 percentage points [16]. - The consumer confidence index is still in a recovery phase, with expectations for future policies to boost consumer confidence and spending [16]. - The recent relaxation of transit visa policies is expected to positively impact inbound tourism, with a significant increase in foreign visitors [16]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In November, retail sales growth decreased, with retail sales totaling 43,763 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.8 percentage points [16]. - For the first eleven months, total retail sales reached approximately 44 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 3.5% [16]. Consumer Confidence and Employment - The service industry production index grew by 6.1% year-on-year in November, while the service PMI remained stable at 50.1 [16]. - The urban unemployment rate was 5.0%, with an increase in average working hours for employees [16]. Policy Impacts - The transit visa policy has been expanded, allowing foreign visitors to stay for up to 240 hours, which is expected to enhance inbound tourism [16]. - The number of foreign visitors in November reached 29.218 million, a year-on-year increase of 86.2%, with 17.446 million entering through visa-free policies, up 123.3% [16]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies likely to benefit from the recovery in tourism and travel demand, such as Lingnan Holdings and Zhongxin Tourism, as well as those benefiting from business and exhibition recovery [16].

Market Overview - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3370.03 with a slight decrease of 0.36% while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.61% to 10649.03 [1] - The macroeconomic analysis highlights that the US dollar index experienced fluctuations, and the RMB exchange rate continued to adjust with minor depreciation pressure, maintaining a relatively strong position against non-US currencies [5] Semiconductor Materials Industry - The semiconductor materials market in China is growing, with a focus on domestic substitution and the impact of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and advanced packaging [6][7] - The global semiconductor industry sales for 2023 are projected at $519.28 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.99%, while the semiconductor materials market is estimated at $66.7 billion, down 8.2% year-on-year [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in semiconductor materials, with the current domestic substitution rate at approximately 15% [7] Advanced Packaging Materials - The global advanced packaging market is expected to grow from $43.9 billion in 2023 to $47.25 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.6% projected from 2022 to 2028 [8] - Domestic companies are actively investing in advanced packaging materials, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers [8] OLED Materials and Market - The OLED panel market is anticipated to rebound, with revenues projected to reach $44 billion in 2024, a 12% increase year-on-year, and panel shipments expected to grow by 18% [9][11] - The report notes that domestic OLED manufacturers are increasing investments in production lines, with BOE's new 8.6 generation AMOLED production line set to begin mass production by 2026 [9] - The OLED materials market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 9.8 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 11% from 2023 to 2030 [11] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the electronic materials sector, driven by rapid downstream industry growth and ongoing domestic substitution [12] - Key investment recommendations include companies such as Anji Technology, Yake Technology, and Jiangfeng Electronics, with a focus on the semiconductor and OLED materials sectors [12]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------|--------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n市场指数 指数名称 | —— \n收盘价 | 晨会聚焦 \n 涨跌 | % | 2024 年 12 月 19 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241219 | | 上证综指 | | 3382.21 0.62 | | | | 深证成指 | | 1058 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than Market" rating for the electronic materials industry, driven by downstream demand recovery, domestic substitution, and advancements in advanced technologies [1] Core Views - The electronic materials industry is experiencing rapid downstream development, with domestic substitution progressing steadily [1] - Semiconductor materials are seeing significant changes due to AI, advanced packaging, and HBM, with domestic substitution holding profound implications [1] - OLED materials are benefiting from improving panel industry conditions, with increasing penetration rates and domestic substitution opportunities [1] Semiconductor Materials - The global semiconductor materials market reached $667 billion in 2023, down 8.2% YoY, with China's market growing 0.9% to $130.85 billion [1] - Global semiconductor manufacturing capacity is expected to grow by 6% in 2024 and 7% in 2025, reaching a record high of 33.7 million wafers per month (8-inch equivalent) [1] - China's semiconductor material localization rate is around 15%, with significant room for growth in high-end sectors [1] - The advanced packaging market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.6% from 2022 to 2028, reaching $786 billion, with China's market growing at a higher CAGR of 26.47% from 2020 to 2025 [1] OLED Materials - Global OLED revenue is expected to reach $44 billion in 2024, up 12% YoY, with panel shipments growing 18% [1] - China's OLED panel capacity accounted for 45.7% of the global total in 2023, with BOE and Visionox leading in AMOLED smartphone panel shipments [1] - The global OLED material market is expected to rebound in 2024, surpassing $2 billion, with China's OLED organic material market projected to grow to $9.8 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 11% [1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on semiconductor materials benefiting from AI, advanced packaging, and HBM, with key companies including Anji Technology, Yake Technology, and Jiangfeng Electronics [1] - In the OLED sector, companies like Wanrun and Laite Optoelectronics are recommended due to increasing penetration rates and domestic substitution opportunities [1] Key Companies and Projects - BOE is constructing China's first 8.6-generation AMOLED production line, targeting mass production by 2026 [1] - Visionox is collaborating with Hefei government to invest in an 8.6-generation AMOLED production line [1] - Domestic companies are making progress in advanced packaging materials, with projects in bonding adhesives, packaging PI, and electroplating materials [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [23] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with November sales area reaching 81.88 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, marking the first positive growth in 18 months [10][4] - The report indicates that the average selling price of commercial housing in November was 10,100 yuan per square meter, down 3.2% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year, suggesting a price correction despite sales volume improvement [6][4] - The report emphasizes that the improvement in sales is primarily driven by supportive government policies and a low base from the previous year, with expectations for continued recovery in December [10][9] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November, the total sales area was 81.88 million square meters, with a sales amount of 827 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [4][10] - Residential sales area reached 68.56 million square meters, up 4.6% year-on-year, indicating a significant recovery in the housing market [10][4] - Cumulative sales area from January to November was 861 million square meters, down 14.3% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since 2011 [10][4] New Housing Inventory - The report notes a decrease in new housing inventory and the de-stocking cycle, with total inventory at 1.84 billion square meters, down 1.3% month-on-month and 12.6% year-on-year [10][9] - The de-stocking cycle is reported at 26.6 months, indicating a slight improvement in inventory management [10][9] Investment and Construction - Real estate development investment in November was 732.5 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year, although the decline has narrowed compared to previous months [10][9] - New construction area in November was 60.81 million square meters, down 26.8% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the construction sector [10][9] - Cumulative development investment from January to November was 9.36 trillion yuan, down 10.4% year-on-year, indicating a continued contraction in investment [10][9] Funding for Real Estate Companies - In November, the total funds available to real estate companies were 934 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, with sales receipts showing a positive growth of 3.2% [10][9] - The report highlights that the improvement in sales receipts is contributing to a more stable funding environment for developers [10][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment opportunities: 1. Stocks expected to rebound post-policy easing, such as JinDi Group and Longfor Group 2. Companies with strong core city layouts benefiting from targeted policies, like Greentown China and China Resources Land 3. Local state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt resolution and urban renewal initiatives [10][9]