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强大于市 房地产行业第 25 周周报(6 月 15 日-6 月 21 日) 本周楼市成交同环比均改善;统计局 5 月销售降 幅边际改善 本周新房成交面积环比由负转正,同比降幅收窄;二手房成交面积同环比均由负转正, 新房库存面积环比上升,同比下降,去化周期同环比均上升。 核心观点 新房成交面积环比由负转正,同比降幅收窄。40 个城市新房成交面积为280.9 万平方米,环 比上升30.4%,同比下降17.8%,同比降幅较上周收窄了17.7 个百分点。主要是因为去年端 午节低基数原因。一、二、三四线城市新房成交面积环比增速分别为46.8%、28.4%、21.1%, 同比增速分别为 2.2%、-21.2%、-30.1%,一线城市同比增速较上周提升了 42.4 个百分点, 二、三四线城市同比降幅较上周分别收窄了12.1、4.1 个百分点。 二手房成交面积同环比均由负转正。18个城市成交面积为189.1 万平方米,环比上升22.4%, 同比上升53.7%,同比由负转正,较上周提升了68.6 个百分点。一、二、三四线城市成交面积 环比增速分别为 28.4%、24.9%、10.2%,同比增速分别为 105.0%、37.1%、 ...

Group 1 - The report defines the broad low interest rate era, which began in the 1980s, as a result of long-term structural factors such as declining potential economic growth and capital return rates [1][36]. - The narrow low interest rate era is characterized by a significant decline in capital return rates, a weakening of expectations for potential economic growth, and a reduction in the effectiveness of monetary policy [1][40]. - The experience of the United States entering the narrow low interest rate era began in 2007, with a rapid decline in rates from 2007 to 2009, followed by a low interest rate expectation phase from 2009 to 2013, where bonds significantly outperformed equities [1][68]. Group 2 - Japan's narrow low interest rate era began in the early 1990s, with a rapid decline in rates from 1990 to 1997, followed by a low interest rate expectation phase from 1998 to 2022, during which risk assets underperformed compared to overseas assets [1][53]. - The report highlights that during Japan's low interest rate period, risk assets consistently underperformed, while Japanese government bonds outperformed inflation [1][57]. - The report notes that the performance of major assets in Japan during the low interest rate period was significantly weaker than that of overseas risk assets, with a notable recovery in Japanese equities only after the implementation of Abenomics in 2013 [1][78]. Group 3 - The outlook for major assets in China entering the narrow low interest rate era post-2023 indicates a gradual alignment with long-term factors such as population changes, with a focus on the effectiveness of monetary policy remaining intact [1][6]. - The report suggests that while nominal returns in China are low, the actual returns remain favorable, indicating a long-term advantage for equity assets [1][3]. - The report emphasizes that the current market is more focused on the decline in interest rates rather than the effects of monetary easing, with bonds still in a dominant position until the market shifts its focus to the effectiveness of monetary policy in the low interest rate stable phase [1][3].

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年6月24日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20240623 国际油价上涨，制冷剂、MDI 价格下跌 6 月份建议关注：1、关注MDI、涤纶长丝、制冷剂、化肥等产品库存及价格变化；2、大 基金三期、下游扩产等多因素催化，关注部分半导体、OLED等电子材料公司；3、大宗商 品价格上行，关注大型能源央企及相关油服公司在新时代背景下的改革改善与经营业绩提 升；4、地产及节能降碳政策影响下，相关产业链产品的预期变化及后续景气度改善。 行业动态  本周（6.17-6.23）均价跟踪的101个化工品种中，共有20个品种价格上涨，47个品种 价格下跌，33 个品种价格稳定。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是硫酸(浙江巨化 98%)、 石脑油（新加坡）、WTI原油、硫酸钾（罗布泊51%粉）、尿素(波罗的海小粒装)；而 周均价跌幅居前的品种分别是电石（华东）、丁二烯（东南亚CFR）、液氯（长三角）、 煤焦油（山西）、轻质纯碱（华东）。  本周（6.17-6.23）国际油价上涨，WTI原油收于80.65美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅2.70%； 布伦特原油收于85.02美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅2.8 ...

经济数据：5 月工业增加值同比增长 5.6%，环比增长 0.3%弱于历史同期平均水平。1-5 月采矿业工业增加值累计同比 增速 2.0%，制造业累计同比增速 6.7%，公用事业累计同比增速 6.2%，高技术产业累计同比增速 8.7%；5 月社零同比 增长 3.7%，其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额同比增长 4.7%，1-5 月服务消费累计同比增长 7.9%。1-5 月固定资产投 资增速为 4.0%，民间固定资产投资增速 0.1%，制造业投资 1-5 月累计同比增长 9.6%，基建投资累计同比增长 5.7%， 地产投资累计同比下降 10.1%。 要闻：财政部、工信部发布《关于进一步支持专精特新中小企业高质量发展的通知》，2024-2026年，聚焦重点产业链、工 业"六基"及战略性新兴产业、未来产业领域，通过财政综合奖补方式，分三批次重点支持"小巨人"企业高质量发展。 A 股下跌，国债上涨。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 1.3%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 1.94%；焦煤期货本周下跌 4.07%，铁矿 石主力合约本周下跌 0.67%；股份制银行理财预期收益率与上周继续持平，余额宝 7 天年化收益率下跌-1BP 至 ...

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年6月23日 强于大市 电力设备与新能源行业 6 月 第 4 周周报 工信部引导锂电企业减少单纯扩产能项目 光伏方面，6月硅料月排产环比明显下降，多晶硅库存亦呈现下降趋势，硅 料底部价格基本确立，光伏上游供给已在市场作用下逐步优化，预计硅料价 格企稳将推动全产业链价格企稳，产业链各环节盈利继续下探动能较弱。产 能出清仍在进行时，建议优先配置行业格局较优、成本优势较为明显的行业 细分环节。风电方面，海风项目建设有序推进，国外海风有望逐步放量，带 动出海需求，建议优先配置受益于海风、海外逻辑的塔筒桩基与海缆环节， 以及存在渗透率提升逻辑的国产化与新技术环节。新能源汽车方面，随着以 旧换新、新能源汽车下乡等政策深入实施，新能源汽车消费市场有望进一步 扩大，全年销量有望保持高景气。本周锂电行业规范条件出台，有望促进产 能逐步出清，电池和材料环节盈利有望回归合理，固态电池等新技术有望带 动产业技术升级。建议优先布局格局较优的电芯环节，海外客户放量以及一 体化布局较优的部分中游材料环节。电力设备领域，国内持续推动电力体制 改革，《国家能源局关于做好新能源消纳工作 保障新能 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - External demand uncertainty is increasing, with domestic demand being the key focus for stable growth[1] - May industrial added value grew by 5.6% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment growth was 4.0%[9] - Real estate investment decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[9] Group 2: Asset Performance - The CSI 300 index fell by 1.3%, while the ten-year government bond yield rose to 2.26%[21] - Commodity futures showed mixed results, with coking coal futures down 4.07% and iron ore down 0.67%[21] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao decreased by 1 basis point to 1.53%[21] Group 3: Asset Allocation Recommendations - Recommended asset allocation order: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[1] - Short-term export benefits may continue, but medium-term risks from tariffs and geopolitical tensions could negatively impact external demand[1] - Policies should focus on stimulating domestic demand, including easing restrictions on real estate sales and promoting consumption upgrades[1] Group 4: Risk Factors - Global inflation may decline slowly, and the pace of economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S. could be faster than expected[1] - The complexity of international situations poses additional risks to economic stability[1]

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年6月23日 强于大市 电力设备与新能源行业 6 月 第 4 周周报 工信部引导锂电企业减少单纯扩产能项目 光伏方面，6月硅料月排产环比明显下降，多晶硅库存亦呈现下降趋势，硅 料底部价格基本确立，光伏上游供给已在市场作用下逐步优化，预计硅料价 格企稳将推动全产业链价格企稳，产业链各环节盈利继续下探动能较弱。产 能出清仍在进行时，建议优先配置行业格局较优、成本优势较为明显的行业 细分环节。风电方面，海风项目建设有序推进，国外海风有望逐步放量，带 动出海需求，建议优先配置受益于海风、海外逻辑的塔筒桩基与海缆环节， 以及存在渗透率提升逻辑的国产化与新技术环节。新能源汽车方面，随着以 旧换新、新能源汽车下乡等政策深入实施，新能源汽车消费市场有望进一步 扩大，全年销量有望保持高景气。本周锂电行业规范条件出台，有望促进产 能逐步出清，电池和材料环节盈利有望回归合理，固态电池等新技术有望带 动产业技术升级。建议优先布局格局较优的电芯环节，海外客户放量以及一 体化布局较优的部分中游材料环节。电力设备领域，国内持续推动电力体制 改革，《国家能源局关于做好新能源消纳工作 保障新能 ...

Industry and Economic Outlook - The report indicates that domestic demand expectations remain weak, with the market entering a phase of expectation fulfillment. Economic data from May has not alleviated concerns regarding the recovery of domestic demand, particularly in the real estate sector, which continues to show weakness [19] - The market has experienced a policy-driven recovery since the second quarter, but the current observation period suggests that further policy efforts are needed to break the prevailing pessimism regarding domestic demand [19] - Market sentiment weakened in the latter half of the week, influenced by the fulfillment of policy expectations and the ongoing weakness in traditional demand chains, particularly in real estate [19] Key Policy Developments - The report highlights the recent release of the "Eight Measures" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), aimed at deepening the reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market). This initiative focuses on enhancing the board's role in supporting high-level technological self-reliance and improving the evaluation system for technology attributes [9] - The "Eight Measures" propose improvements to the trading mechanism of the STAR Market to enhance trading activity, including optimizing the market maker mechanism and introducing new index products [9] Sector-Specific Insights - The report notes that the "Car-Road-Cloud" initiative has seen a surge in related policies since June, marking a significant catalyst for smart driving technologies. This initiative aims to create a complex system for vehicle and infrastructure communication, enhancing the overall traffic system's capabilities [6][19] - The report identifies several listed companies within the "Car-Road-Cloud" industry chain, particularly in the mid and downstream sectors, which are expected to benefit from the maturation of this industry [19] Market Performance - The report provides a summary of market performance, indicating that the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3032.63, with a weekly decline of 0.61% and a year-to-date increase of 1.94% [31] - The report also highlights the performance of various indices, including the ChiNext Index and the CSI 300, noting their respective weekly and year-to-date changes [31]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n6 月金股组合 | —— 晨会聚焦 \n | | 2024 年 6 月 21 日 | | 股票代码 | | 股票名称 | 中银晨会聚焦 -20240621 | | 600428.SH | | 中远海特 | | | 600309.SH | | 万华化学 | 重点关注 | | 002409.SZ | | 雅克科技 | ■ | | 688700.SH | | 东威科技 | 【社会服务】社服与消费视角点评 5 月国内宏观数据 * 李小民 纠泰民。国家 | | 300750.SZ 600054.SH | | 宁德时代 黄山旅游 | 统计局等部 ...