Core Insights - Industry demand recovery is below expectations, with a deteriorating market competition landscape and insufficient innovation in end-user applications, alongside rising raw material prices [1] Group 1: Electricity Market Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued the "Basic Rules for Electricity Market Operation," marking the first revision in over 18 years, indicating significant changes in the electricity market structure [2][9] - The electricity data factor market is expected to shift from policy-driven to business model-driven, with short-term market space in energy storage projected to reach tens of billions, and long-term potential in demand-side management expected to reach hundreds of billions [2][10] Group 2: Power Demand and Supply Dynamics - The rapid development of generative AI is expected to significantly increase electricity demand, with a reported 9.8% year-on-year growth in total electricity consumption in the first quarter of 2024 [3] - By the end of 2030, electricity consumption in U.S. data centers is projected to triple compared to 2022 levels, exacerbating supply volatility due to the increasing share of renewable energy generation [3] Group 3: Data Asset Integration - The integration of data assets into financial statements and the initiation of data asset credit activities in provinces like Guangdong and Hebei indicate the establishment of a transformation channel for "data assets - credit capital - credit funds" [32] - The completion of the first batch of data asset entries into financial statements by several listed companies in Q1 2024 signifies the initial formation of a closed-loop in the data factor industry [32]

Trade Performance Insights - In the first five months of 2024, the contribution of "Belt and Road" countries to China's export growth was significant, achieving a positive contribution of 0.89 percentage points[8] - The main contributors to this positive impact were mineral products (0.43 percentage points), machinery and electrical products (2.75 percentage points), chemical products (1.09 percentage points), and automotive equipment (0.37 percentage points)[8] - The contribution of exports to the EU and the US remained weak, with machinery and non-ferrous metal products showing negative contributions of -3.02 and -0.02 percentage points to the US, and -4.70 and -0.16 percentage points to the EU respectively[15][18] Market Trends - The overall export growth rate for May 2024 was 7.6%, an increase of 6.2 percentage points from April, although the manufacturing new export orders index fell below the threshold, indicating fragile external demand recovery[19] - The "Belt and Road" countries are identified as a crucial incremental source of external demand, contrasting with the stagnant demand from traditional partners like the EU and the US[19] - The contribution of "Belt and Road" countries to the total export growth rate was 2.88 percentage points, highlighting their role as a vital growth driver in the current economic landscape[16] Future Outlook - The report suggests a cautious optimism regarding external demand recovery in the third quarter, as traditional trade partners still show signs of demand weakness[19] - The potential for increased support for domestic electric vehicle exports from Russia and "Belt and Road" countries is noted, especially in light of rising import tariffs on electric vehicles in certain regions[5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - Global port congestion is driving up container shipping rates, with multiple factors widening the capacity gap [2][15] - The global airline industry is expected to achieve a net profit margin of 3.1% this year, with outbound travel demand surging, leading to a 1.1 times year-on-year increase in inbound and outbound flight bookings [2][16] - The express logistics sector saw a total of 2.654 billion packages handled during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with upcoming events like "618" driving additional business growth [2][21] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hotspot Events - Global port congestion is exacerbated by voyage cancellations, leading to increased container shipping rates. According to Drewry data, 49 voyages were canceled from June 10 to July 14, representing 7% of planned voyages [2][15] - The global airline industry is projected to achieve a 3.1% net profit margin in 2024, with all regions expected to report profits for two consecutive years. Domestic flight bookings for the summer travel season have exceeded 7.5 million, a 32% increase year-on-year [2][16] - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, 2.654 billion packages were handled, with express delivery companies adapting to market demands and enhancing service offerings [2][21] 2. High-Frequency Dynamic Data Tracking - Air freight prices have increased year-on-year, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 4808.00 points, up 37.8% year-on-year [22][29] - The container shipping price index has risen, with the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) at 3379.22 points, reflecting a 6.10% week-on-week increase and a 244.87% year-on-year increase [33] - The express logistics sector reported a 22.70% year-on-year increase in business volume in April, with revenue up 18.33% [2][22]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for AI PC-related companies, highlighting their potential to drive a new wave of innovation in the PC market [4]. Core Insights - The trend of cloud AI expanding to edge AI is evident, with AI PCs facilitating the scaling of hybrid AI. Cloud AI focuses on high performance and density, while edge AI emphasizes low power consumption and high efficiency. The collaboration between cloud and edge AI for computational load is expected to become a norm [3][19]. - AI PCs are projected to significantly boost the PC market, with global shipments expected to reach 51 million units in 2024 and 208 million units by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 42% from 2024 to 2028 [3][4]. Summary by Sections AI PC Development - AI PCs are designed to support low-power, high-efficiency applications, making them ideal for hybrid AI deployment. They are expected to lead to a significant upgrade in the PC market [2][3]. - The necessary specifications for AI PCs include a minimum of 40 Tops of NPU performance, with current models from Qualcomm exceeding this requirement, while Intel and AMD are expected to release upgraded models in 2024 [3][32][37]. Market Projections - Canalys forecasts that the penetration rate of AI PCs will increase to 19% in 2024, 43% in 2025, and 55% in 2026, indicating a rapid adoption of AI technology in personal computing [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in companies such as Chipsea Technology, Huichuangda, and others, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the AI PC market [4]. Hardware and Software Ecosystem - AI PCs require significant hardware upgrades, including at least 16GB of memory for basic AI models, with higher specifications for advanced models. The report emphasizes the need for improved SSD performance and capacity [48]. - The software ecosystem for AI PCs is still developing, with companies like Microsoft introducing platforms to enhance AI application development and deployment [49][51].

Investment Rating - The report rates the communication industry as "Outperforming the Market" relative to the CSI 300 index [2]. Core Insights - The integration of "Vehicle-Road-Cloud" policies is accelerating, leading to new directions in smart driving development [3][4]. - The communication sector showed strong performance in the week of June 10-16, 2024, with the overall communication sector index rising by 6.01%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [13][15]. - Key stocks in the communication sector, such as terminal equipment and optical communication, experienced significant gains, with increases of 8.66% and 11.45% respectively [15][18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The communication sector index rose by 6.01% in the 24th week of 2024, outperforming the Shanghai Composite index, which fell by 0.61% [13]. - Sub-sectors like terminal equipment and optical communication saw increases of 8.66% and 11.45% respectively, while communication operations faced a decline of 1.83% [15][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on satellite internet companies (e.g., Creative Information, Shanghai Hanhua, Huali Chuantong), optical modules (e.g., Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, Huagong Technology), and 5G companies (e.g., Canqin Technology, Shuo Beide) [6]. Industry News - China Mobile has initiated a procurement project for 12 million units of self-branded smart cameras and enterprise broadband products, with a total budget of approximately 2 billion yuan [30]. - China Telecom has launched a new round of procurement for trunk optical cable lines and related equipment, indicating ongoing infrastructure development [32]. - China Telecom has also started the sixth phase of its 5G wireless network procurement, focusing on expanding its 5G capabilities [34].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market" for the next 6-12 months, indicating expected performance above the benchmark index [14]. Core Insights - The "Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integration" projects are rapidly advancing across multiple cities, with significant investments such as the 17 billion yuan project in Wuhan, marking a shift towards large-scale implementation in the transportation information sector [5][6]. - The government has issued clear guidelines and support for the "Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integration" initiative, with pilot projects set to run from 2024 to 2026, focusing on smart roadside infrastructure and vehicle connectivity [6][9]. - A total of 17 national-level testing demonstration zones and 7 vehicle networking pilot areas have been established, with over 22,000 kilometers of open testing roads and more than 5,200 testing licenses issued by the end of 2023 [6][9]. Summary by Sections Project Developments - The Wuhan "Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integration" project has been approved with a budget of approximately 17 billion yuan, aiming to enhance smart road coverage and vehicle terminal installation rates [7]. - Other cities like Shenzhen, Nanjing, and Ordos are also initiating similar projects, indicating a nationwide trend towards smart transportation solutions [7][8]. Policy and Regulatory Framework - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has established a list of nine vehicle manufacturers for pilot projects, including major companies like BYD and NIO, to enhance vehicle connectivity [9][10]. - A comprehensive guideline for the "Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integration" has been developed, emphasizing the need for unified standards and collaborative development across various sectors [10]. Investment Opportunities - Companies involved in the supply chain for smart transportation, including those providing communication modules, network equipment, and high-precision positioning systems, are expected to benefit significantly from these developments [5][6]. - Specific companies to watch include Wanji Technology, Jinyi Technology, and Qianfang Technology, which are engaged in the intelligent transportation infrastructure sector [5].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electricity IT sector, indicating significant investment opportunities driven by policy changes and market dynamics [4][6]. Core Insights - The recent revision of the "Basic Rules for Electricity Market Operation" by the National Development and Reform Commission marks a significant shift in China's electricity market, emphasizing the role of data elements in driving commercial models [4][6]. - The establishment of the electricity data trading center is expected to accelerate the circulation of electricity data, enhancing market efficiency and creating new business opportunities [83]. - The integration of data assets into financial systems is progressing, with several companies successfully completing data asset registration, indicating a growing recognition of data as a valuable asset [15][17]. Summary by Sections Electricity Market Dynamics - The electricity data market is transitioning from policy-driven to commercially driven, with the first "Electricity + Energy" data product transaction completed in Zhejiang province, indicating a deepening integration of data into business systems [4][6]. - The market for energy storage scenarios is projected to reach tens of billions in the short term, while the demand-side management market could grow to hundreds of billions in the long term, following trends observed in the U.S. [4][6]. Data Asset Integration - As of Q1 2024, several listed companies have successfully integrated data assets into their financial statements, with the total scale exceeding 100 million yuan, highlighting the potential for data assets to unlock significant market value [15][17]. - The establishment of provincial data management agencies across 22 provinces is facilitating a unified national data management framework, enhancing the efficiency of data resource utilization [13][14]. Technological Advancements - The rapid development of generative AI is expected to significantly increase electricity demand, with a reported 9.8% year-on-year growth in total electricity consumption in Q1 2024 [86]. - The electricity supply is becoming increasingly volatile due to the rising share of renewable energy generation, necessitating improved demand-side management strategies [87]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment opportunities are identified in data analytics firms benefiting from the deepening of electricity data transactions, with specific companies like Langxin Group and Guoneng Rixin highlighted [4][6]. - Long-term prospects are favorable for companies involved in electricity hardware and data ownership, such as Southern Power Technology and State Grid Information Communication [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [14] Core Viewpoints - In May 2024, the average price of new homes in 70 major cities decreased by 0.7% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 1.0%, marking the largest monthly decline since data collection began in 2011 [1][5] - The decline in new home prices has continued for 12 consecutive months, and second-hand home prices have decreased for 13 months in a row, indicating a prolonged downward trend that has surpassed the previous cycle in 2014 [1][6] - Among the 70 cities, 68 experienced a month-on-month decline in new home prices, with an average drop of 0.75%, while all second-hand home prices fell, a situation that has only occurred twice in history [1][6] Summary by Sections New Home Prices - In May, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.7%, with Beijing down 1.1% and Guangzhou down 1.4%. Only Shanghai saw a price increase of 0.6% [1][5] - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.2%, with all four major cities reporting declines [1][6] Second-Hand Home Prices - The second-hand home price drop in May was the largest monthly decline recorded since 2011, with an average decrease of 1.0% across all cities [1][6] - In second-tier cities, new home prices fell by 0.7%, while second-hand prices dropped by 1.0%, both marking significant declines [1][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: 1. Real estate companies with no liquidity risk and solid fundamentals, such as China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments [1] 2. Companies expected to improve significantly post-policy easing, including China City Construction and Vanke [1] 3. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from increased second-hand home transaction volumes, such as Beike and I Love My Home [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights a weak overall performance in May economic data, with industrial value-added growth slowing down primarily due to midstream industry drag [16][18] - Fixed asset investment growth is below expectations, with manufacturing investment maintaining steady growth while infrastructure investment is declining [16][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand for stabilizing growth in the second half of the year [19] Economic Data Summary - In May, industrial value-added grew by 5.6% year-on-year, with mining, manufacturing, and public utilities showing cumulative growth rates of 2.0%, 6.7%, and 6.2% respectively [16] - Retail sales in May increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales growing by 4.7% [16] - Fixed asset investment growth for January to May was 4.0%, with private investment growth at 0.1% and manufacturing investment at 9.6% [17] Real Estate Sector Insights - Real estate investment funding sources have shown slight improvement, with sales area and sales revenue both declining year-on-year by 20.3% and 27.9% respectively [17] - The report notes a 10.6% decline in residential investment growth and a 24.2% drop in new construction area for January to May [17] Policy Implications - The report suggests that future growth stabilization will rely heavily on domestic demand expansion, with potential policy measures including easing sales restrictions in real estate and promoting consumption upgrades [19] - It also indicates that infrastructure investment may receive support from increased government bond issuance [16][19]

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024年6月17日 强于大市 房地产行业 2024 年 5 月统 计局数据点评 多项需求端政策落地带动5 月销售降幅边际改 善，开工与投资降幅仍在扩大 国家统计局发布2024年1-5月份全国房地产开发投资和销售情况。5月销售面积7390万平，同 比增速-20.7%（前值：-22.8%）；开发投资金额9704亿元，同比增速-11.0%（前值：-10.5%）； 新开工面积6580万平，同比增速-22.7%（前值：-14.0%）。 统计局披露同比增速说明：投资、销售等指标的增速均按可比口径计算。报告期数据与上年已公 布的同期数据之间存在不可比因素，不能直接相比计算增速。1）自2023年3月开始，统计局销 售与投资等指标口径调整，剔除退房、非房地产开发性质的项目投资以及具有抵押性质的销售 数据。2）自2024年1-2月开始，统计局进一步明确房地产开发统计界定标准，将符合房地产开 发统计标准的项目纳入统计范围，剔除单纯一级土地开发等非房地产开发项目。以下报告中销 售与投资相关数值均使用本次统计局直接公布的同比增速。 核心观点 相关研究报告 1. 商品房销售： 《房地产行业202 ...