国联证券 家电研究团队 政策催化内销景气，厨电&白电值得重视 ——家电行业10月月报及11月投资策略 2024年11月12日 证券研究报告 报告评级：强于大市|维持 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 目 录 第一部分 11月投资观点 第二部分 10月市场回顾 第三部分 重点数据跟踪 第四部分 投资建议&核心报告 p 0 1、11月投资观点 Park Q SQ 需求拐点向上，内销弹性可期 白电：本轮以旧换新补贴力度比肩家电下乡，9月起政策执行进入兑现阶段，8月下 旬以来周度零售增速上扬，空调弹性突出；海外欧美降息补库周期共振，需求触底 改善，新兴市场及OBM持续贡献增量；政策利好结构升级，内销均价稳健上行。内 销弹性可期，龙头出口订单保持较快增长，报表质量优异，业绩预期稳健，后续经 营有支撑，推荐美的集团、海尔智家、格力电器、海信家电等。 黑电：彩电内外销景气仍有分化，国内量增表现平淡，后续有望受益以旧换新政策 带动，新兴市场支撑全球出货表现，2024年全球市场规模有望稳中有增。同时，国 内彩电龙头全球份额提升逻辑持续兑现；盈利端面板波动影响趋弱，产品升级助益 盈利改善，推荐龙头海信视像，关注TCL电子。 小家电： ...

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司深度|吉利汽车（00175） 从新车计划看吉利汽车销量空间 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月12日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 银河 E5、星愿等车型上市热销，充分验证公司具备塑造新能源爆款车型的能力。展望未来， 吉利汽车已规划上市车型数量仍在增加，车型矩阵将进一步得到拓展。随着 2024H2 上市的热 销车型产能逐渐爬坡，有望与 2025 年上市新车的销量形成合力，推动公司新能源销量保持较 高增速。我们预计 2024/2025 年吉利汽车有望实现销量 214.3/278.2 万辆，同比分别增长 30.0%/29.8%。其中，银河/领克/极氪 2024 年有望分别贡献新能源销量 29.6/16.7/21.7 万辆， 同比 254.3%/157.2%/82.8%。 |分析师及联系人 高登 陈斯竹 SAC：S0590523110004 SAC：S0590523100009 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 28 港股公司|公司深度 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月12日 吉利汽车(00175) 从新车计划看吉利汽车销量空间 | - ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|农林牧渔 把握宠物及饲料企业景气向上的投资机 会 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月12日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 把握宠物及饲料企业景气向上的投资机会。①消费成长类：水产链：水产品存塘有望逐渐回 升，从而带动水产饲料需求改善；重点推荐海大集团。宠物：国内宠物行业处在快速发展阶 段，宠物食品作为宠物经济的重要组成之一，在国内仍有广阔发展空间，这一过程也将孕育优 秀的国产自主品牌，重点推荐乖宝宠物,中宠股份，瑞普生物。②周期景气类：养殖：四季度 生猪养殖或仍能维持盈利，推荐牧原股份、温氏股份、立华股份、禾丰股份等。 |分析师及联系人 王明琦 马鹏 涂雅晴 SAC：S0590524040003 SAC：S0590524050001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 20 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月12日 农林牧渔 把握宠物及饲料企业景气向上的投资机会 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -30% -13% 3% 20% 2023/11 2024/3 2024/ ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|装修建材 多数规模降幅扩大，部分经营质量提升 ——装修建材 24Q3 经营表现探讨 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月11日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 我们选取装修建材 25 家上市代表企业作为观察样本。2024Q3 大部分样本企业收入和归母净 利润增长显现一定压力，反应需求继续筑底，其中北新建材、兔宝宝收入和归母净利润延续较 好增长。整体来看，地产销售低迷背景下，装修建材需求增长有压力，竞争或延续较为激烈态 势，少部分客户偏 C 端或小 B 端的"消费"类企业收入利润增长韧性较好。2024Q3 大部分企 业盈利承压，部分企业（如科顺股份、兔宝宝、海象新材）受益于产品结构优化以及降本降费 措施，盈利能力稳步改善。2024Q1-3 装修建材企业经营质量分化加大。 |分析师及联系人 武慧东 朱思敏 SAC：S0590523080005 SAC：S0590524050002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 17 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月11日 装修建材 多数规模降幅扩大，部分经营质量提升 ...

农药：行业风口或指向杀虫剂 -关注氨基甲酸酯类杀虫剂产业机遇 国联证券大化工研究团队 2024年11月11日 证券研究报告 报告评级：强于大市丨维持 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 农药：行业聚光灯或打向杀虫剂-关注氨基甲酸酯类杀虫剂产业机遇 Ø 农药为保障全球粮食安全的刚需产品，2017-2022年全球农药市场规模年均复合增速约4.9%，长期跟随世界人口增长。 Ø 供给增量有限，仍存景气条件。2021年以来，中国中西部地区农药原药产能扩张较多，据我们统计拟建和规划建设 的农药原药产能约67万吨规模。但历经2017-2018年供给测改革，目前中国农药产量已远小于2013-2014年，2024- 2025年中国农药原药产量或仍难及2013年的水平，供给过剩有限，仍存在复制2013年高景气条件。 Ø 杀虫剂有望率先迎来行业景气。行业或已过最悲观时刻，新一轮农药景气复苏渐进，北美等海外地区库存已恢复至 正常水平，2024年中国农药制剂出口改善明显，行业景气渐暖。根据农药出口数据，杀虫剂出口表现优异，2024Q3 单季度出口金额已超2022Q3数据，2023Q1至2024Q3，季均复合增速达9.5%；相比之下2024Q ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance relative to the market index by more than 10% [4][10] Core Views - The company's business volume has surpassed 2019 levels, with significant growth in cargo and passenger throughput [6] - The company has achieved strong revenue and net profit growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue increasing by 15% YoY to 5.3 billion yuan and net profit surging by 143.7% YoY to 670 million yuan [2][6] - The company's cost control measures have improved financial metrics, with the gross profit margin rising to 27.1% and the expense ratio decreasing by 2.4 percentage points [6] - The company's international business has shown rapid growth, with international passenger throughput increasing by 98.2% YoY [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 5.3 billion yuan, a 15% YoY increase, with Q3 revenue at 1.84 billion yuan, up 7.2% YoY [2][6] - Net profit for the first three quarters was 670 million yuan, a 143.7% YoY increase, with Q3 net profit at 230 million yuan, up 98.2% YoY [2][6] - The company's aircraft movements, passenger throughput, and cargo throughput all exceeded 2019 levels, with cargo throughput growing by 24.5% compared to 2019 [6] Future Projections - The report forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be 7.34 billion yuan, 8.2 billion yuan, and 8.96 billion yuan, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 14.7%, 11.3%, and 9.2% [6] - Net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 950 million yuan, 1.21 billion yuan, and 1.11 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 115.5%, 26.6%, and -8.1%, respectively [6] - EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 0.40 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.47 yuan [6] Industry and Market Position - The company operates in the transportation/airport industry and is strengthening its hub advantage through capacity expansion [4][6] - The company has built the world's largest single-terminal airport and is accelerating the construction of its third-phase expansion project, which is expected to further enhance its scale advantage and consolidate its hub value [6] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio for 2024 is projected at 24.0, with a P/B ratio of 1.2 [7] - The EV/EBITDA ratio for 2024 is forecasted at 6.5, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [7]

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|上海机场（600009） 国际线驱动业务增长，商业变现待提升 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月11日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司发布 2024 年三季报。2024 年前三季度，公司实现营收 91.9 亿元，同比增长 16%，其中 第三季度实现营收 31.3 亿元，同比增长 2.5%；前三季度公司实现归母净利润 12.0 亿元，同 比增长 141.9%，其中第三季度实现归母净利润 3.9 亿元，同比增长 6.2%。 |分析师及联系人 曾智星 李蔚 SAC：S0590524100004 SAC：S0590522120002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月11日 上海机场(600009) 国际线驱动业务增长，商业变现待提升 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------------------| | | | | 行 业： | 交通运输/航空机场 | | 投资评级： | 增持（首次） | | 当前价格： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, and with policy support, sales are expected to rebound in Q4 [2][4] - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 33.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.5% [2][6] - The heavy truck industry is experiencing a downturn, with Q3 sales down 18.2% year-on-year and 23.0% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The company’s gross margin improved to 8.3% in Q3, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product mix improvements [6] - Policy measures announced in July 2024 are expected to support the heavy truck industry by accelerating the replacement of older vehicles [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 29.2% [2][6] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.9% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 8.4% [2][6] - The company’s market share in the heavy truck segment was 27.8%, showing a slight year-on-year decline but an improvement quarter-on-quarter [6] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 50.48 billion yuan, 61.44 billion yuan, and 70.66 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.0%, 21.7%, and 15.0% respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.4%. In the third quarter alone, revenue reached 7.1 billion yuan, also up by 4.5% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters was 1.21 billion yuan, an increase of 18.7% year-on-year, although the third quarter saw a decline of 13.04% to 297 million yuan [2][6] - Passenger traffic growth slowed in Q3, with a total of 54.19 million passengers sent in the first three quarters, a 20% increase year-on-year. However, Q3 saw a 4% increase in passenger traffic, with the Guangzhou-Shenzhen intercity traffic decreasing by 1% [6][4] - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 7.7%, 5.7%, and 5.7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected to be 1.4 billion, 1.54 billion, and 1.64 billion yuan for the same years [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 28.22 billion yuan, 29.82 billion yuan, and 31.5 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 7.74%, 5.65%, and 5.65% [7] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 32.26% year-on-year, followed by 1.54 billion yuan and 1.636 billion yuan in the subsequent years [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.20 yuan, 0.22 yuan, and 0.23 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][7] Operational Insights - The company experienced a significant increase in passenger traffic in the first three quarters, but Q3 showed a notable slowdown, attributed to a high base effect from the previous year [6][4] - The operational costs and financial expenses increased in Q3, which negatively impacted profitability despite a strong performance in the first half of the year [6][4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the renovation of Guangzhou Station and Guangzhou East Station into high-speed rail stations, which will enhance its operational capabilities in the high-speed rail sector [6][4]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the construction materials sector, reflecting a positive outlook despite ongoing challenges [4] Core Views - The construction industry, particularly state-owned enterprises (SOEs), is experiencing improved cash collection in Q3 2024, driven by accelerated local government special bond issuance in August and September [2][4] - Industry concentration continues to rise, with sample companies accounting for 51% of new contracts in 2024Q1-3, up from 50% in 2023 [8] - International engineering companies show stronger growth momentum compared to central and local SOEs, with better profitability and cash flow performance [18][19] Key Metrics Summary Overall Industry Performance - Sample companies' new contract growth slowed to 3.3% in 2024Q1-3, with revenue and net profit declining by 5.0% and 1.4% respectively [8][9] - Cash flow improved in Q3, with operating cash flow narrowing by 144 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [13] - Debt ratios increased, with central SOEs' average debt ratio reaching 77.2% in Q3 2024, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [15] Segment Performance - International engineering companies outperformed central and local SOEs in key metrics, including ROE and profit margins [17][18] - Central SOEs like China Energy Engineering and China National Chemical Engineering showed positive revenue and profit growth, while local SOEs experienced more significant declines [19][20] - Profit margins improved for international engineering firms, with Sinosteel Engineering's gross margin increasing by 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [21] Cash Flow and Debt - Operating cash flow ratios declined across the board, but central SOEs saw a smaller drop compared to local SOEs [22][23] - Debt ratios increased for both central and local SOEs, while international engineering companies reduced their debt levels [24][25] - Inventory turnover days increased significantly, with local SOEs facing the most pressure, up 102 days year-on-year [26][27] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued central SOEs with strong dividend yields, such as China State Construction and China Communications Construction [28][35] - Companies with strong overseas market presence and transformation potential, such as Sinoma International and China National Chemical Engineering, are also highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [35] Policy Impact - Accelerated local government special bond issuance in 2024 is expected to ease funding pressure on infrastructure projects, improving cash collection for construction companies [34] - Debt resolution policies introduced in 2024 could significantly reduce local government debt pressure, benefiting the construction sector in the medium to long term [34]