Investment Rating - The investment recommendation for the real estate sector is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [9][14]. Core Insights - As of January 22, 2025, the heavy holding ratio of the real estate sector in sample funds is 0.92%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous period, indicating an underweight of 0.45% compared to the standard ratio [3][12]. - The real estate development and service sectors have positions of 0.83% and 0.09%, respectively, with declines of 0.43 percentage points and 0.01 percentage points [3][12]. - Improvement-oriented real estate companies such as China Overseas Development and Greentown China saw increases in holdings of 234 million and 245 million yuan, respectively [3][12]. - Northbound funds increased their holdings in companies like I Love My Home, while southbound funds added to their positions in Greentown China and Greentown Management Holdings [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The heavy holding ratio of the real estate sector has decreased, with a total market value of 26.51 billion yuan, down 38.2% from the previous period [12][19]. - The real estate sector ranks 23rd among 31 first-level industries in terms of allocation ratio [19]. 2. Sector Analysis - The real estate development sector's position has returned to the level of Q2 2024, while the service sector has also seen a decline [12][24]. 3. Individual Stocks - The top five stocks in the real estate development sector by fund heavy holding market value are Poly Developments (6.431 billion yuan), China Merchants Shekou (3.613 billion yuan), China Overseas Development (1.824 billion yuan), Vanke A (1.605 billion yuan), and China Resources Land (1.324 billion yuan) [27][31]. 4. Fund Flows - Northbound funds increased their holdings in companies such as Jindi Group (+1.04 percentage points) and I Love My Home (+0.90 percentage points) [13][35]. - Southbound funds saw significant increases in holdings for Greentown Management Holdings (+4.49 percentage points) and Greentown China (+4.28 percentage points) [13][38]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading central state-owned enterprises and improvement-oriented real estate companies with land acquisition capabilities in core cities, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and Binhai Group [14][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [7][16][48] Core Insights - In Q4 2024, funds slightly reduced their holdings in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a configuration ratio of 3.45%, down 1.96 percentage points from the previous quarter. The total market value of fund holdings in this sector was 48.498 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.131 billion yuan [3][10][21] - The top ten stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector by fund holdings in Q4 2024 included Zijin Mining, Shenhuo Co., Zhongjin Gold, China Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, Shanjin International, Western Materials, Zhongmin Resources, Shandong Gold, and Hunan Gold. New entrants to the top ten compared to Q3 2024 were Western Materials, Zhongmin Resources, and Hunan Gold [3][11][29] Summary by Sections 1. Fund Configuration in Non-Ferrous Metals - In Q4 2024, the fund configuration ratio for the non-ferrous metals sector was 3.45%, reflecting a decrease of 1.96 percentage points. The total market value of fund holdings was 48.498 billion yuan, down 39.131 billion yuan from the previous quarter [10][21][36] 2. Industrial Metals - The total market value of fund holdings in the industrial metals sector was 30.694 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.85%. The sector saw increased holdings in copper processing, aluminum, and lead-zinc, while major copper mining stocks were reduced. Notable increases in holdings included Chujiang New Materials (+60.64 million shares) and Xinbo Co. (+18.48 million shares), while significant reductions were seen in Luoyang Molybdenum (-491 million shares) and Zijin Mining (-464 million shares) [12][36][40] 3. Precious Metals - The total market value of fund holdings in the precious metals sector was 7.465 billion yuan, down 56.95%. Following Trump's election victory in November 2024, the gold price declined, leading to a reduction in gold stocks. Notable reductions included Zhongjin Gold (-149 million shares) and Shanjin International (-90.75 million shares) [13][40][42] 4. Energy Metals - The total market value of fund holdings in the energy metals sector was 5.258 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.01%. The sector is expected to see a rebound in lithium prices due to seasonal demand increases. Notable increases in holdings included Yahua Group (+46.71 million shares) and Shengxin Lithium Energy (+10.37 million shares), while reductions were seen in Huayou Cobalt (-216.5 million shares) and Tianqi Lithium (-76.7 million shares) [14][44][45] 5. Minor Metals and New Metal Materials - The total market value of fund holdings in minor metals and new metal materials was 5.081 billion yuan, down 5.65%. Significant increases were seen in Western Materials (+68.61 million shares) and Ningbo Yunsheng (+8.55 million shares), while reductions were noted in Baowu Magnesium (-34.22 million shares) and Guizhou Platinum (-28.84 million shares) [15][47][48] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report continues to favor investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, maintaining an "Outperform" rating. Recommended stocks include: 1) Industrial Metals: China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo Co. 2) Copper: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, WISCO, Jincheng Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals 3) Precious Metals: Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Gold, Shanjin International, and for silver, Xingye Silver Tin [16][49][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the agricultural sector [7]. Core Insights - As of December 2024, the national breeding sow inventory reached 40.78 million heads, nearing the upper limit of the 105% capacity control green zone. The pig farming sector turned profitable in 2024, with an average profit of 214 yuan per pig, an increase of 290 yuan compared to 2023. The breeding sow capacity is expected to slowly recover in 2024, leading to a more relaxed supply of pigs in 2025, which may put pressure on pig prices. Recommended companies include those with significant cost advantages and high turnover rates, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as companies in the post-cycle veterinary and feed sectors like Haida Group [4][10][37]. Summary by Sections 1. December Breeding Sow Inventory Changes - The breeding sow inventory remained stable in December, with a total of 40.78 million heads, close to the upper limit of the capacity control zone. The pig farming sector achieved profitability in 2024, with an average profit of 214 yuan per pig, up by 290 yuan from 2023. The breeding sow capacity is entering a slow recovery phase, and by 2025, the pig supply is expected to increase, potentially leading to price pressure [10][19]. 2. Future Pig Price Trends and Capacity Changes - Pig prices are expected to face pressure in 2025 due to increased supply. The breeding sow inventory is projected to continue increasing, supported by optimistic price expectations and declining feed costs. The overall pig disease situation is stable, which may mitigate production losses. Thus, the breeding sow inventory is likely to show a stable, slight increase leading up to the 2025 Spring Festival [33][36]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on low-cost pig farming enterprises. With pig prices having peaked at over 21 yuan per kilogram in August 2024, the market is now experiencing fluctuations. The report recommends companies with clear cost advantages and high turnover rates, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as companies in the veterinary and feed sectors like Haida Group [37].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6][16] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable operations in Q4 2024, outperforming the industry despite pressure on domestic sales and limited impact from national subsidies on the small home appliance sector. The company is actively controlling costs, ensuring relatively stable profitability, and is projected to achieve revenue of 22.4 billion, 24.4 billion, and 26.8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of +3%, +9%, and +10% [3][16] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 22.43 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.27%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 2.23 billion and 2.26 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.30% to 3.68% [12] - For Q4 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 5.915 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.37% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be between 797 million and 827 million yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -2.50% to +1.17% [12][13] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the national subsidy has limited impact on the small home appliance industry's overall market conditions. Domestic sales are under pressure, while external sales continue to grow. The company is expected to maintain a stable performance in the domestic market, significantly outperforming the industry due to its strong brand, channel, and product capabilities [13][15] Profitability and Cost Control - The company's net profit margin is expected to remain stable, with a slight year-on-year change of -0.29 percentage points to +0.21 percentage points. The pressure on profitability is mainly from domestic sales, where increased competition is expected to impact product sales prices and gross margins. The company is implementing measures to enhance marketing efficiency and strictly control expenses to maintain profitability [14][16] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 22.43 billion, 24.40 billion, and 26.64 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of +5%, +9%, and +9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.24 billion, 2.44 billion, and 2.68 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of +3%, +9%, and +10% [3][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the express delivery industry [6]. Core Insights - In December, the national express delivery volume reached 17.8 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, driven by the "Double 12" e-commerce promotion and early Spring Festival consumption [3][10]. - The average single ticket price in December was 7.75 yuan, a decrease of 0.56% from November, indicating ongoing price competition in the low-price segment [3][11]. - The report suggests focusing on industry leaders that have experienced significant declines but have stable fundamentals, as the sector's valuation is at a historically low level [3][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Volume: Driven by E-commerce Promotions and Year-End Consumption - December's express delivery volume achieved a high growth rate of 22.3% year-on-year, totaling 17.8 billion pieces [10][21]. - Major express brands maintained high growth, with Shentong leading with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.72% [25]. 2. Single Ticket Price: Overall Stability in Express Prices - The average single ticket price in December was 7.75 yuan, down 0.56% from November, with a year-on-year decline of 7.11% after adjusting for data changes [11][34]. - The prices of major express companies like YTO and Yunda remained stable compared to November [44]. 3. Industry Structure: Rising Market Shares for YTO and Shentong - The brand concentration index CR8 was 85.2 in December, unchanged from November but up 1.2 from the previous year [54][55]. - Market shares for YTO and Shentong increased year-on-year, while SF and Yunda saw slight declines [57]. 4. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Undervalued Leaders - The report indicates that the fundamentals are improving, with January's express delivery volume expected to maintain high growth rates due to early demand for New Year goods [61]. - The sector's valuation is at a relative low, suggesting a focus on leading companies that have seen significant price drops, such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express [65].

Investment Rating - The investment recommendation for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" [7][50]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued decrease in the allocation to the liquor sector, particularly in the baijiu category, while there is an increase in allocations to beer and dairy products [10][27]. - The food and beverage public fund holding ratio is at 8.33%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points, marking the lowest level since Q3 2017 [10][18]. - The report identifies key stocks with increased allocations, including Yili and Qingdao Beer, while major baijiu stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao saw reductions in holdings [12][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Holdings in Q4 2024 - The public fund holding ratio for the food and beverage industry is 8.33%, down 0.63 percentage points, with an excess allocation of 2.68% [10][18]. - The top five holdings include Kweichow Moutai (1.26%), Wuliangye (0.77%), Luzhou Laojiao (0.39%), Shanxi Fenjiu (0.39%), and Gujing Gongjiu (0.25%) [12][21]. - The report notes a significant drop in baijiu holdings among other funds, reaching the lowest level since 2018 [11][23]. 2. Sector Performance - The report indicates that beer, dairy products, and non-dairy beverages have seen increased allocations, while baijiu continues to be reduced [11][27]. - The baijiu sector's allocation decreased by 1.26 percentage points to 6.67% [29][30]. - The report emphasizes that the beer sector has increased by 0.16 percentage points to 0.36% [29][30]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the valuation and performance of liquor companies, particularly Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as regional leaders like Gujing Gongjiu [50]. - It recommends high-quality stocks in the mass consumer sector, including Yili and Qingdao Beer, as well as companies in the snack and beverage segments like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [51][54]. - The report also highlights the potential for recovery in the dairy sector, recommending leading companies such as Yili and Mengniu [53].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - Since the 1990s, Japan's monetary policy has aimed at economic growth and inflation recovery, utilizing a weak yen as an indirect economic stimulus tool[3] - The Bank of Japan has maintained ultra-low interest rates and implemented quantitative easing (QE) to ensure ample yen liquidity, countering appreciation pressures[3] - In contrast to Japan's approach, China's future monetary policy may focus more on domestic stability while managing exchange rate stability[3] Group 2: Historical Exchange Rate Trends - From 1995 to 1998, the yen depreciated as Japan's monetary policy shifted to stimulate economic recovery, with the policy rate dropping from 1.75% to 0.5%[7] - The yen's depreciation during this period was accompanied by a recovery in export growth, as the USD/JPY exchange rate rose from around 81 to over 100[7] - Between 2012 and 2015, the introduction of QQE led to a significant depreciation of the yen, with the exchange rate moving from 76.11 to 102.98[9] Group 3: Implications for Current Policy - Japan's experience suggests that maintaining a weak currency can support export-driven economic recovery, which may inform China's approach to managing the yuan[10] - The Chinese central bank's actions to stabilize the yuan are crucial for maintaining foreign investment and stock market stability[10] - As China enters a period of moderate monetary easing, the yuan may face pressure, but the central bank has sufficient policy tools to manage fluctuations[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the agricultural sector [7]. Core Insights - The fund's heavy allocation to the agricultural sector has decreased, with a heavy position of 1.00% in Q4 2024, down by 0.32 percentage points from the previous quarter. The sector's overweight ratio is -0.22%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points [3][10]. - The report highlights potential growth in the pig feed and aquaculture feed markets due to an expected increase in downstream inventory in 2025. The overseas feed market presents significant opportunities, with domestic companies actively seeking growth abroad. Key recommendations include Haida Group and He Feng Co. [3][38]. - The domestic pet industry continues to show strong growth, with a focus on domestic brands replacing imports and ongoing product upgrades. Recommended companies in this space include Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Rui Pu Bio [3][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Allocation Trends - The agricultural sector's fund allocation has shown a noticeable decline in Q4 2024, with a heavy position of 1.00%, down 0.32 percentage points. The overweight ratio is -0.22%, down 0.26 percentage points [10][18]. - The livestock sector's fund allocation has decreased significantly, with a heavy position of 0.51%, down 0.29 percentage points, while the feed sector's allocation slightly decreased to 0.38%, down 0.04 percentage points [11][20]. 2. Investment Recommendations 2.1 Pig Farming - In 2025, pig supply is expected to enter a more relaxed phase, leading to potential price pressure. The report recommends focusing on companies with clear cost advantages, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [14][37]. 2.2 Feed Sector - The report emphasizes the anticipated increase in demand for pig and aquaculture feed due to rising inventory levels. It also notes the vast potential in the overseas feed market, recommending Haida Group and suggesting attention to He Feng Co. [14][38]. 2.3 Pet Consumption - The domestic pet industry is characterized by robust growth, with a shift towards domestic brands and product upgrades. The report recommends focusing on companies with strong growth potential in pet food and health, including Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Rui Pu Bio [14][39]. 3. Heavy Holdings - The report indicates that heavy holdings remain concentrated in the livestock sector, with Haida Group being the most held stock by 165 funds, followed by Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [13][33].

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The Japanese pet market has shown resilience and a trend of domestic brands replacing imports over the past 40 years, indicating potential for similar developments in China's pet economy [4][15] - The growth of the Japanese pet food market has transitioned from quantity-driven to price-driven since 2010, suggesting that future market expansion will rely on product price increases rather than just volume [10][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic pet companies with strong product innovation and brand upgrading capabilities, such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd [15][113] Summary by Sections 1. Japanese Pet Food Market Growth - The Japanese pet food market has expanded over tenfold from 1978 to 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.55% [21] - The market growth was primarily driven by an increase in pet numbers until 2010, after which price increases became the main growth driver [10][30] 2. Domestic Replacement and Consumption Upgrade - The market has seen a shift where domestic brands have overtaken imports, with local brands holding significant market shares [11][52] - The pet food market in Japan has demonstrated strong resilience during economic downturns, maintaining growth even during crises [12][56] 3. Competitive Landscape and Product Differentiation - Inaba has emerged as a leading player in the Japanese pet food market, with a significant increase in sales from 20.7 billion yen in 2014 to 88.8 billion yen in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 17.56% [71] - The company has leveraged its marine food background to create unique products, particularly in the wet food segment, which has seen less competition compared to dry food [75][76] 4. Insights for China's Pet Industry - China's pet market is expected to follow a similar trajectory as Japan, with potential for domestic brands to rise and consumption upgrades to occur [14][89] - The report highlights that while the growth in pet numbers may slow, there is significant room for increasing per-pet spending, particularly in high-end pet food [98][99] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic pet companies that show potential for growth and innovation, as the market is likely to continue evolving towards higher quality and premium products [15][113]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [6] Core Views - The company leverages low costs to establish strong competitive barriers in the spandex and adipic acid sectors, enhancing its cost advantages through scale expansion and technological improvements, demonstrating strong profitability resilience even during downturns [3][12][17] - The spandex business's counter-cyclical low-cost expansion further solidifies its leading position, and with the continuous expansion of polyurethane product categories, the company is expected to achieve economies of scale and sustained growth [12][19] - The company is positioned as a comprehensive giant in the polyurethane industry, with significant production capacities and ongoing projects to enhance its market presence [13][42] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a global leader in the spandex industry and a key player in the polyurethane sector, with production capacities for spandex, polyurethane raw materials, and adipic acid ranking first in the country [27][42] - The company has two main production bases located in Zhejiang and Chongqing, with a total spandex capacity of 32.5 million tons and ongoing projects to increase production [40][42] Spandex and Adipic Acid Business - The spandex business benefits from a growing preference for comfort and fashion, with a CAGR of 9.3% from 2017 to 2023, and the industry concentration is expected to rise from 61% in 2019 to 80% in 2024 [14][52] - The company holds approximately 24% of the spandex market share, benefiting from scale, technology, and raw material advantages, which enhance its profitability during downturns [14][52] - The adipic acid sector is characterized by high concentration and improving demand driven by downstream nylon and polyurethane applications, with the company being the largest producer globally [14][52] Polyurethane Products - The polyurethane raw materials business is expected to grow steadily, with the company holding a market share of nearly 65% in the domestic market, benefiting from high bargaining power within the industry [12][19] - The company is actively expanding into synthetic leather and thermoplastic polyurethane elastomers, which will further enhance its growth potential in the polyurethane sector [12][19] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 282 billion, 293 billion, and 317 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 7%, 4%, and 8% [19] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 26 billion, 35 billion, and 40 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 5%, 34%, and 14% [19] - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 0.52, 0.71, and 0.81 yuan per share from 2024 to 2026, with a 3-year CAGR of 17% [19]