Market Overview - The market shows signs of stabilization after liquidity tests, typically stabilizing within 10 days before the Spring Festival and continuing trends post-festival[4] - The January rebound is primarily due to a market correction from overselling, lacking strong catalysts[4] - Post-Spring Festival, the market may start trading on expectations from the Two Sessions policies, with potential for a new trend if strong incremental policies are introduced[4] Investment Recommendations - China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH): Expected growth in NBV Margin and net profit due to favorable economic policies and management transitions[18] - Hisense Home Appliances (000921.SZ): Anticipated sales growth driven by subsidy policies and improved product efficiency[19] - Modern Dairy (1117.HK): Potential for price stabilization in raw milk and operational advantages in the dairy sector[20] - Geely Automobile (0175.HK): Strong new car cycles and expanding overseas markets expected to drive growth[24] - Guorui Technology (600562.SH): Anticipated growth in military trade and radar demand post-2024 elections[26] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH): Expected production increases due to global resource allocation[27] - China Mobile (600941.SH): Revenue growth driven by increased 5G penetration and improved dividend payouts[28] - Light Media (300251.SZ): Anticipated performance boost from major film releases and IP collaborations[31] - SMIC (688981.SH): Growth in semiconductor demand driven by domestic production and AI applications[32] - Zhongke Chuangda (300496.SZ): Expected rapid business growth from AI terminal strategies[34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][3] Core Insights - In January 2025, the company delivered 30,350 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 268%. Future sales are expected to grow rapidly, with projected sales of 442,000 and 652,000 vehicles for 2025 and 2026, respectively. Corresponding revenues for 2024-2026 are forecasted to be 43.54 billion, 94.75 billion, and 136.41 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.9%, 117.6%, and 44.0% [3][16] - The company is expected to achieve a turning point in sales with the launch of high-quality models and the iteration of smart driving technology, which is anticipated to help reverse financial data. Collaboration with Volkswagen is expected to leverage technological advantages to realize revenue [3][16] Summary by Sections Delivery Performance - In January 2025, the company delivered 30,350 vehicles, a 268% increase year-on-year, maintaining a leading position among new energy vehicle manufacturers. The MONA M03 model achieved over 15,000 deliveries in a single month, while the P7+ model surpassed 20,000 deliveries within two months. The order backlog is robust, with waiting times of 2-5 weeks for MONA M03 and 1-4 weeks for P7+, ensuring delivery capabilities [13][14] Smart Driving Technology - The monthly active user penetration rate for the XNGP urban smart driving feature reached 87% in January. The AI system has been upgraded to include new functionalities such as "parking to parking" and coach car recognition. The company enhances user stickiness by offering standard AI smart driving features without additional costs [15] Global Strategy and Charging Ecosystem - The company accelerated its global strategy with the launch of the right-hand drive version of the X9 at the Singapore Auto Show and entered markets in Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, and Finland. The charging ecosystem is expanding with new partnerships, including agreements with Volkswagen Group and bp pulse. The self-operated charging network has surpassed 2,050 stations, with plans to add over 1,000 ultra-fast charging stations in 2025 [16] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 43.54 billion, 94.75 billion, and 136.41 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.9%, 117.6%, and 44.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -6.20 billion, -0.59 billion, and 4.31 billion yuan for the same years [3][17]

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司深度|壹石通（688733） 深耕粉体材料，SOFC 蓝海启航 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年02月03日 证券研究报告 -50% -23% 3% 30% 2024/1 2024/5 2024/9 2025/1 壹石通 沪深300 相关报告 |报告要点 公司深耕粉体材料，为锂电涂覆材料勃姆石龙头，在电子材料、阻燃材料亦有扩展，不断推进 粉体材料平台化发展；新材料方面，公司瞄准未来 HBM 封装用氧化铝材料和高效环保的固体 氧化物燃料电池 SOFC，在 SOFC 领域实现从粉体到电堆全环节布局，有望受益于 SOFC 全球固 体氧化物燃料电池市场的快速发展，建议持续关注。 |分析师及联系人 张磊 SAC：S0590524110005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 35 非金融公司|公司深度 glzqdatemark2 2025年02月03日 壹石通(688733) 深耕粉体材料，SOFC 蓝海启航 | 行 业： | 电力设备/电池 | | --- | --- | | 投资评级： | 无评级 | | 当前价格： | 18.38 元 | | ...

( ) 国联证券 证券研究报告 策略研究 |点评报告 市场调整后的行情展望 at 2017 11:00 PM 11 11 11:00 11 TIN NEW Y = 11:41:54 1 000 1 200 t 11:00 rray N 188 EHINE el and CHO FIFT ri Hole Company 1-9-361 12 " NEW - 雪 1 a 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 2025年01月08日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 |分析师及联系人 包承超 邓宇林 肖遥志 SAC: S0590523100005 SAC: S0590523100008 SAC: S0590523110008 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 25 1） 市场在快速下行后,往往会优先企稳;如果以中央经济工作会议为时间节点,本轮下行幅 度已经超过历史均值。 2） 市场情绪和部分估值指标已经回到历史低位水平,权益市场的性价比逐步回归。 3) 高质量+高分红的红利资产未来可能有更高更稳定的股息率,具有更高的性价比,主要包 括食品饮料、家用电器、纺织服装等消费行业。 策略研究 点评报告 2025年01月08日 策略周报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][10]. Core Views - The company has announced a profit warning for 2024, expecting a net profit of 938-1076 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 61.0%-66.0%. The decline is attributed to a significant drop in photovoltaic glass prices and impairment provisions for cold repair furnaces and certain inventories [2][10]. - Despite short-term profit pressure due to weak demand and falling prices, the report suggests that the current low-price competition may lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity, optimizing the competitive landscape. As a leading player in the photovoltaic glass industry, the company is expected to maintain its competitive edge and achieve long-term growth [2][10]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company anticipates a substantial decline in net profit for 2024, with a forecasted range of 938-1076 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 61.0%-66.0% year-on-year. The expected non-recurring net profit is also projected to decrease by the same percentage [10]. - The second half of 2024 is expected to see continued pressure on profitability due to falling photovoltaic glass prices and the need for impairment provisions [10]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is currently undergoing a supply-demand adjustment, with an oversupply of photovoltaic glass. Despite a significant cold repair and shutdown of furnaces, the high inventory levels have led to a continued decline in prices, with the average price for 2.0mm photovoltaic glass expected to drop to 11.8 yuan per square meter by the end of 2024, a 33% year-on-year decrease [11]. - The report anticipates that 2025 will see a supply-side adjustment, potentially leading to the exit of underperforming production capacity and a recovery in performance [11]. Production Capacity and Efficiency - The company has added two new photovoltaic glass production lines in H1 2024, bringing total capacity to 23,000 tons per day, which accounts for approximately 20% of the industry’s total capacity. However, cold repairs in H2 2024 will impact the company's output [12]. - The company’s large-scale furnaces, which constitute over 90% of its production capacity, provide advantages in stability and efficiency. Ongoing technological improvements and cost management initiatives are expected to mitigate some of the profit decline [13]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 20.75 billion, 25.77 billion, and 33.50 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.6%, +24.2%, and +30.0%. Net profit forecasts are 1.03 billion, 2.05 billion, and 3.54 billion yuan, reflecting significant fluctuations in growth rates [14][15]. - The report highlights that while short-term profitability is under pressure, the long-term outlook remains positive due to potential market adjustments and the company's strong market position [14].

Investment Rating - The investment recommendation for the real estate sector is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [9][14]. Core Insights - As of January 22, 2025, the heavy holding ratio of the real estate sector in sample funds is 0.92%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous period, indicating an underweight of 0.45% compared to the standard ratio [3][12]. - The real estate development and service sectors have positions of 0.83% and 0.09%, respectively, with declines of 0.43 percentage points and 0.01 percentage points [3][12]. - Improvement-oriented real estate companies such as China Overseas Development and Greentown China saw increases in holdings of 234 million and 245 million yuan, respectively [3][12]. - Northbound funds increased their holdings in companies like I Love My Home, while southbound funds added to their positions in Greentown China and Greentown Management Holdings [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The heavy holding ratio of the real estate sector has decreased, with a total market value of 26.51 billion yuan, down 38.2% from the previous period [12][19]. - The real estate sector ranks 23rd among 31 first-level industries in terms of allocation ratio [19]. 2. Sector Analysis - The real estate development sector's position has returned to the level of Q2 2024, while the service sector has also seen a decline [12][24]. 3. Individual Stocks - The top five stocks in the real estate development sector by fund heavy holding market value are Poly Developments (6.431 billion yuan), China Merchants Shekou (3.613 billion yuan), China Overseas Development (1.824 billion yuan), Vanke A (1.605 billion yuan), and China Resources Land (1.324 billion yuan) [27][31]. 4. Fund Flows - Northbound funds increased their holdings in companies such as Jindi Group (+1.04 percentage points) and I Love My Home (+0.90 percentage points) [13][35]. - Southbound funds saw significant increases in holdings for Greentown Management Holdings (+4.49 percentage points) and Greentown China (+4.28 percentage points) [13][38]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading central state-owned enterprises and improvement-oriented real estate companies with land acquisition capabilities in core cities, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and Binhai Group [14][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [7][16][48] Core Insights - In Q4 2024, funds slightly reduced their holdings in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a configuration ratio of 3.45%, down 1.96 percentage points from the previous quarter. The total market value of fund holdings in this sector was 48.498 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.131 billion yuan [3][10][21] - The top ten stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector by fund holdings in Q4 2024 included Zijin Mining, Shenhuo Co., Zhongjin Gold, China Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, Shanjin International, Western Materials, Zhongmin Resources, Shandong Gold, and Hunan Gold. New entrants to the top ten compared to Q3 2024 were Western Materials, Zhongmin Resources, and Hunan Gold [3][11][29] Summary by Sections 1. Fund Configuration in Non-Ferrous Metals - In Q4 2024, the fund configuration ratio for the non-ferrous metals sector was 3.45%, reflecting a decrease of 1.96 percentage points. The total market value of fund holdings was 48.498 billion yuan, down 39.131 billion yuan from the previous quarter [10][21][36] 2. Industrial Metals - The total market value of fund holdings in the industrial metals sector was 30.694 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.85%. The sector saw increased holdings in copper processing, aluminum, and lead-zinc, while major copper mining stocks were reduced. Notable increases in holdings included Chujiang New Materials (+60.64 million shares) and Xinbo Co. (+18.48 million shares), while significant reductions were seen in Luoyang Molybdenum (-491 million shares) and Zijin Mining (-464 million shares) [12][36][40] 3. Precious Metals - The total market value of fund holdings in the precious metals sector was 7.465 billion yuan, down 56.95%. Following Trump's election victory in November 2024, the gold price declined, leading to a reduction in gold stocks. Notable reductions included Zhongjin Gold (-149 million shares) and Shanjin International (-90.75 million shares) [13][40][42] 4. Energy Metals - The total market value of fund holdings in the energy metals sector was 5.258 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.01%. The sector is expected to see a rebound in lithium prices due to seasonal demand increases. Notable increases in holdings included Yahua Group (+46.71 million shares) and Shengxin Lithium Energy (+10.37 million shares), while reductions were seen in Huayou Cobalt (-216.5 million shares) and Tianqi Lithium (-76.7 million shares) [14][44][45] 5. Minor Metals and New Metal Materials - The total market value of fund holdings in minor metals and new metal materials was 5.081 billion yuan, down 5.65%. Significant increases were seen in Western Materials (+68.61 million shares) and Ningbo Yunsheng (+8.55 million shares), while reductions were noted in Baowu Magnesium (-34.22 million shares) and Guizhou Platinum (-28.84 million shares) [15][47][48] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report continues to favor investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, maintaining an "Outperform" rating. Recommended stocks include: 1) Industrial Metals: China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo Co. 2) Copper: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, WISCO, Jincheng Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals 3) Precious Metals: Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Gold, Shanjin International, and for silver, Xingye Silver Tin [16][49][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the agricultural sector [7]. Core Insights - As of December 2024, the national breeding sow inventory reached 40.78 million heads, nearing the upper limit of the 105% capacity control green zone. The pig farming sector turned profitable in 2024, with an average profit of 214 yuan per pig, an increase of 290 yuan compared to 2023. The breeding sow capacity is expected to slowly recover in 2024, leading to a more relaxed supply of pigs in 2025, which may put pressure on pig prices. Recommended companies include those with significant cost advantages and high turnover rates, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as companies in the post-cycle veterinary and feed sectors like Haida Group [4][10][37]. Summary by Sections 1. December Breeding Sow Inventory Changes - The breeding sow inventory remained stable in December, with a total of 40.78 million heads, close to the upper limit of the capacity control zone. The pig farming sector achieved profitability in 2024, with an average profit of 214 yuan per pig, up by 290 yuan from 2023. The breeding sow capacity is entering a slow recovery phase, and by 2025, the pig supply is expected to increase, potentially leading to price pressure [10][19]. 2. Future Pig Price Trends and Capacity Changes - Pig prices are expected to face pressure in 2025 due to increased supply. The breeding sow inventory is projected to continue increasing, supported by optimistic price expectations and declining feed costs. The overall pig disease situation is stable, which may mitigate production losses. Thus, the breeding sow inventory is likely to show a stable, slight increase leading up to the 2025 Spring Festival [33][36]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on low-cost pig farming enterprises. With pig prices having peaked at over 21 yuan per kilogram in August 2024, the market is now experiencing fluctuations. The report recommends companies with clear cost advantages and high turnover rates, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as companies in the veterinary and feed sectors like Haida Group [37].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6][16] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable operations in Q4 2024, outperforming the industry despite pressure on domestic sales and limited impact from national subsidies on the small home appliance sector. The company is actively controlling costs, ensuring relatively stable profitability, and is projected to achieve revenue of 22.4 billion, 24.4 billion, and 26.8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of +3%, +9%, and +10% [3][16] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 22.43 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.27%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 2.23 billion and 2.26 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.30% to 3.68% [12] - For Q4 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 5.915 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.37% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be between 797 million and 827 million yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -2.50% to +1.17% [12][13] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the national subsidy has limited impact on the small home appliance industry's overall market conditions. Domestic sales are under pressure, while external sales continue to grow. The company is expected to maintain a stable performance in the domestic market, significantly outperforming the industry due to its strong brand, channel, and product capabilities [13][15] Profitability and Cost Control - The company's net profit margin is expected to remain stable, with a slight year-on-year change of -0.29 percentage points to +0.21 percentage points. The pressure on profitability is mainly from domestic sales, where increased competition is expected to impact product sales prices and gross margins. The company is implementing measures to enhance marketing efficiency and strictly control expenses to maintain profitability [14][16] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 22.43 billion, 24.40 billion, and 26.64 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of +5%, +9%, and +9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.24 billion, 2.44 billion, and 2.68 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of +3%, +9%, and +10% [3][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the express delivery industry [6]. Core Insights - In December, the national express delivery volume reached 17.8 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, driven by the "Double 12" e-commerce promotion and early Spring Festival consumption [3][10]. - The average single ticket price in December was 7.75 yuan, a decrease of 0.56% from November, indicating ongoing price competition in the low-price segment [3][11]. - The report suggests focusing on industry leaders that have experienced significant declines but have stable fundamentals, as the sector's valuation is at a historically low level [3][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Volume: Driven by E-commerce Promotions and Year-End Consumption - December's express delivery volume achieved a high growth rate of 22.3% year-on-year, totaling 17.8 billion pieces [10][21]. - Major express brands maintained high growth, with Shentong leading with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.72% [25]. 2. Single Ticket Price: Overall Stability in Express Prices - The average single ticket price in December was 7.75 yuan, down 0.56% from November, with a year-on-year decline of 7.11% after adjusting for data changes [11][34]. - The prices of major express companies like YTO and Yunda remained stable compared to November [44]. 3. Industry Structure: Rising Market Shares for YTO and Shentong - The brand concentration index CR8 was 85.2 in December, unchanged from November but up 1.2 from the previous year [54][55]. - Market shares for YTO and Shentong increased year-on-year, while SF and Yunda saw slight declines [57]. 4. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Undervalued Leaders - The report indicates that the fundamentals are improving, with January's express delivery volume expected to maintain high growth rates due to early demand for New Year goods [61]. - The sector's valuation is at a relative low, suggesting a focus on leading companies that have seen significant price drops, such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express [65].