证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|建发股份（600153） 拟收购建发房产股权，规划增强股东回 报 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年12月18日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 12 月 17 日，公司发布公告拟收购控股子公司建发房产 10%股权，收购价格为对应评 估值 30.66 亿元，交易完成后，公司将持有建发房产 64.654%的股权；同时拟针对 2024-2025 年指定利润分配预案：每年以现金方式分配不少于归属上市公司股东可分配利润的 30%，且每 年每股分红不低于 0.7 元人民币。若收购交易完成，能提升公司盈利能力，增厚归母净利润 和净资产，维持公司"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 杜昊旻 方鹏 姜好幸 刘汪 SAC：S0590524070006 SAC：S0590524100003 SAC：S0590524070008 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年12月18日 建发股份(600153) 拟收购建发房产股权，规划增强股东回报 | --- | --- | --- | |----- ...

证券研究报告 金融工程|专题报告 衍生品多头信号转弱，转债策略表现优 异—周报 2024 年 12 月 13 日 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年12月15日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 国联转债随机森林策略本周取得 2.54%的绝对收益和 0.46%的相对收益；宏观环境 Logit 预测 值稳步回升；本周企业盈利指数略微下降；电池景气指数预测值较上周回升明显；融资资金本 周持续净流入；最新一期中证 500 股指期货择时信号为 0.4，本周后两日衍生品择时模型多头 信号减弱；风格轮动模型最新偏好小盘成长；行业轮动双剔除版本本期行业轮动配置非银金 融、商贸零售、电子、电池、电机 II，近期行业龙头与拥挤度因子表现较好；以遗传规划为 基础的中证 1000 增强组合本周超额 0.76%。 |分析师及联系人 陆豪 康作宁 陈阅川 陆诵韬 SAC：S0590523070001 SAC：S0590524010003 SAC：S0590524050004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 31 金融工程|专题报告 | --- | --- | |--------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment recommendation for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - Ciena's Q4 FY2024 report shows strong order growth, with a backlog of $2.1 billion, indicating robust future performance [11] - Ciena has raised its revenue growth guidance for FY2025-2027 to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%-11%, up from the previous 6%-8% [11] - The acquisition of 100% of Xinnuo Communications by Gaoling Information highlights a strategic move into the DCI equipment sector, reflecting confidence in DCI market growth [11] - The trend of multi-data center (DC) collaborative training is expected to drive significant demand for DCI solutions, as major tech companies like Meta and Google adopt distributed training models [11] Summary by Sections Ciena's Financial Performance - Ciena reported revenue of $1.12 billion for Q4 FY2024, with a GAAP EPS of $0.25 and a non-GAAP EPS of $0.54 [11] - The company has seen orders exceed revenue for two consecutive quarters, establishing a strong foundation for future growth [11] Customer Base and Market Outlook - Among Ciena's top 10 customers, four are cloud service providers, indicating a shift in customer demographics [11] - The company is optimistic about its future, with significant contributions expected from cloud vendors [11] Strategic Acquisitions - Gaoling Information's acquisition of Xinnuo Communications is aimed at enhancing its capabilities in the DCI market, which is anticipated to grow rapidly [11] DCI Market Trends - The shift towards multi-DC collaborative training is expected to increase the demand for DCI solutions, driven by the need for high computational power [11] - Investment opportunities in the DCI supply chain are highlighted, particularly in companies like ZTE, FiberHome, and others involved in OTN and high-speed optical products [11]

证券研究报告 北交所投资策略|深度报告 新兴市场弹性大，重视并购重组等主线 2024年12月15日 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 证券研究报告 |报告要点 自"9.24"新政以来，北交所市场的流动性和估值持续修复，情绪龙头效应显著。但情绪龙头 仍然≠基本面龙头，政策第一阶段，对于盈利能力改善幅度和持续性较为谨慎，我们预计随着 刺激政策出台，基本面或并购重组有望成为 2025 年的交易主线。我们建议关注以下 4 个方 向：1）并购重组主线，2）市值管理主线，3）回购和分红主线，4）北交所特色绩优资产。 |分析师及联系人 刘建伟 SAC：S0590524050005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 46 北交所投资策略|深度报告 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the securities industry, citing favorable policy catalysts and market recovery as key drivers [6][7] Core Views - The securities industry is expected to benefit from a shift in capital market reforms from the financing side to the investment side, with policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market and accelerating the entry of medium- and long-term funds [2][6] - ETF growth has been rapid, with ETF size reaching nearly 3.7 trillion by November 2024, an 81% increase from the end of 2023 [2][6] - The industry is expected to see a reversal in performance in 2025, with a projected 18% year-on-year increase in net profit and 12% growth in revenue [6][7] Market Performance - The brokerage index outperformed the CSI 300 by 21 percentage points from the beginning of the year to November 2024, with a cumulative increase of 37% [6][17] - Daily stock trading volume in November 2024 reached 1.02 trillion, a 15.3% year-on-year increase [2][6] - The two-finance balance (margin trading and securities lending) reached 1.84 trillion by November 2024, a 12% increase from the end of 2023 [18][21] Policy Catalysts - A series of favorable policies were introduced since late September 2024, including the creation of new monetary policy tools to support stock market stability and the acceleration of medium- and long-term funds entering the market [2][6] - The central bank announced a 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) on September 27, 2024, to boost market liquidity [43][44] Wealth Management - Retail investors are accelerating their entry into the market, with A股新增开户数 (new A-share accounts) in October 2024 reaching 685,000, a 484% year-on-year increase [48][51] - ETF development is seen as a key driver for wealth management, with stock ETF size reaching nearly 2.9 trillion by November 2024, a 97% increase from the end of 2023 [36][37] Investment Banking and PE - M&A and restructuring are expected to be significant growth areas for investment banking, with global M&A transaction volumes exceeding $3 trillion in the first three quarters of 2024 [95][96] - IPO and refinancing activities have slowed, with IPO规模 (IPO size) in November 2024 at 56.8 billion, down 83% year-on-year [30][94] 2025 Outlook - The industry is expected to see a reversal in performance, with a projected 18% year-on-year increase in net profit and 12% growth in revenue [6][7] - Head brokerages are expected to accelerate M&A activities, with examples like the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities providing a model for industry consolidation [123][124] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the securities industry, with a focus on leading brokerages such as东方财富 (East Money), 华泰证券 (Huatai Securities), 中信证券 (CITIC Securities), and 广发证券 (GF Securities) [6][133]

证券研究报告 宏观经济|宏观点评 新增非农回升显示就业市场或仍稳健 ——美国 11 月非农就业数据点评 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年12月09日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 美国 11 月非农新增就业 22.7 万人，近 3 个月的平均新增非农为 17.3 万人，10 月第一次修正 上修 2.4 万人，9 月第二次修正较初值上修 0.1 万人至 25.5 万人。失业率超预期从 4.145%升 至 4.246%。10 月非农数据受飓风等临时因素扰动，11 月数据或更好反映目前劳动力市场状 况。11 月时薪的环比小幅下降，同比变化不大，略高于 4%。11 月每周工作时间为 34.3 小时。 美联储 12 月降息 25 基点仍是最可能的情形，数据公布后，美联储 12 月降息概率从不到 70% 升至接近 90%，债券收益率普遍下行，股市涨跌不一，美元指数走弱。 |分析师及联系人 王博群 方诗超 SAC：S0590524010002 SAC：S0590523030001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 26 宏观经济|宏观点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年12月09 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业周报|电子 半导体制裁落地，产业链国产化加速 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年12月08日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 12 月 2 日，美国商务部以维护国家安全为由，宣布新一轮出口管制规定，将 140 家中 国企业列入实体清单，进一步限制半导体设备、高带宽存储芯片等半导体产品对华出口。12 月 3 日，中国半导体行业协会、中国汽车工业协会、中国互联网协会、中国通信企业协会四 大行业协会集体发布声明，对美国出口限制措施表示坚决反对。北方华创、华大九天等公司发 布公告称列入实体清单的影响总体可控，不会对业务产生实质影响。我们认为短期内对企业 影响有限，长期有望推动半导体产业链国产化加速。 |分析师及联系人 郇正林 熊军 SAC：S0590524110001 SAC：S0590522040001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 12 行业研究|行业周报 glzqdatemark2 2024年12月08日 电子 12 月周报（12.2—12.6） 半导体制裁落地，产业链国产化加速 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相 ...

Cabinet Composition - Trump's new cabinet members have a total wealth nearly 60 times that of Biden's cabinet[9] - The majority of Trump's cabinet members belong to Generation X, born between 1965-1980[9] - Six members of Trump's cabinet hold Juris Doctor (JD) degrees, reflecting the "lawyer-led" governance characteristic of the U.S.[9] Economic Policy - Trump's potential economic policies can be summarized as three arrows: tax cuts, deregulation, and tariffs[9] - The new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has a "3-3-3" plan aiming to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028, increase GDP growth to 3%, and boost U.S. energy production by 3 million barrels per day[9] Regulatory Environment - Deregulation is expected to be a significant component of Trump's economic policy, with potential changes in leadership at major financial regulatory agencies[9] - There may be a relaxation of regulations on cryptocurrencies and a reduction in banking regulatory requirements[9] Trade Policy - Trump's trade representative nominee, Jamieson Greer, advocates for increased tariffs and stricter export controls to protect U.S. technology, indicating a potential return to protectionism[9] Demographic Insights - Trump's cabinet has a lower percentage of women at 31% compared to Biden's 38%[25] - The cabinet is predominantly white, with only three members from minority backgrounds, contrasting with Biden's cabinet which has a higher representation of minorities[25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422) for the first time [7] Core Views - Kelun Pharmaceutical has successfully diversified its strategy, leading in the domestic infusion market and expanding into APIs, generics, and innovative drugs [2] - The company has 154 generic drugs launched by H1 2024, with a strong presence in parenteral nutrition, bacterial infections, and fluid balance [2] - Kelun's innovative drug pipeline includes SKB264, a pan-cancer ADC drug developed in collaboration with Merck, with significant market potential both domestically and internationally [2] Business Overview Infusion Business - Kelun is a leading player in China's infusion market, with sales of approximately 4.38 billion bottles/bags in 2023 [11] - The company is driving industry upgrades through high-end infusion products like ready-to-mix solutions and collapsible bags [2] - Infusion capacity expansion and product innovation are expected to boost market share [15] API Business - Kelun ranks among the global leaders in the production of erythromycin thiocyanate, cephalosporin intermediates, and penicillin intermediates [2] - The company is a pioneer in synthetic biology in China, with products already in delivery [2] - API business revenue grew from CNY 3.65 billion in 2020 to CNY 4.82 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.7% [115] Generic Drugs - By H1 2024, Kelun had launched 154 generic drugs, establishing advantages in parenteral nutrition, bacterial infections, and fluid balance [2] - The company has 47 products (67 specifications) selected in national centralized procurement, making it a leading supplier [105] Innovative Drugs - Kelun is collaborating with Merck on multiple innovative drug projects, including the pan-cancer ADC drug SKB264 [2] - The global ADC drug market is projected to grow from USD 14.2 billion in 2024 to USD 64.7 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 28.8% [11] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 22.02 billion in 2024 to CNY 25.23 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 7.1% [16] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from CNY 2.96 billion in 2024 to CNY 3.89 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.7% [16] - EPS is forecasted to rise from CNY 1.85 in 2024 to CNY 2.43 in 2026 [16] Industry Analysis Infusion Market - China's infusion production reached approximately 10.5 billion bottles/bags in 2022, with Kelun being a major contributor [11] - The infusion market is expected to stabilize and recover, with Kelun well-positioned to benefit from capacity expansion and product upgrades [73] ADC Drug Market - The global ADC drug market is projected to grow significantly, driven by the combination of PD1/PDL1 inhibitors with ADC drugs [60] - Kelun's SKB264 has shown best-in-class potential in multiple indications, with broad market prospects [11] Centralized Procurement Impact - Centralized procurement has led to rapid volume growth for Kelun's generic drugs, with 47 products selected across nine batches [105] - The company's strategy of continuous new product approvals ensures stable revenue and profit growth in the generics segment [105]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|房地产 11 月市场热度延续，政策助力需求释 放 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年12月04日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 1-11 月，35 城商品房累计成交面积 13621 万平方米，同比下降 22.42%，降幅较 1-10 月收窄 3.43pct；11 月单月成交面积同比增长 14.41%，年内首次实现正增长。二手房市场延 续以价换量趋势，15 城累计成交面积 8353 万平方米，同比增长 2.55%，11 月单月同比增长 26.06%。土地市场热度回升，全国 300 城宅地累计成交面积 25308 万平方米，同比下降 27.39%， 降幅较 1-10 月收窄 3.09pct。11 月单月溢价率提升至 5.12%，流拍率降至 2.83%。建议关注 绿城中国、建发国际集团、滨江集团、我爱我家等。 |分析师及联系人 杜昊旻 姜好幸 方鹏 刘汪 SAC：S0590524070006 SAC：S0590524070008 SAC：S0590524100003 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 15 行业研究|行业专题研究 ...