Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between -0.24 billion to -0.16 billion yuan in 2024, with a non-recurring net profit of between -0.83 billion to -0.75 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year shift from profit to loss. This is primarily due to increased R&D and personnel costs related to AI server line modules and CPU sockets, as well as delays in defense market orders and a decline in gross margins. However, the fourth quarter of 2024 is projected to show a reduction in losses, driven by the ramp-up of line module production [3][11][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 1.33 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 47.32%. The net profit is expected to be -0.17 billion yuan, transitioning from loss to profit in 2025 with a projected net profit of 1.49 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 960.33% [13][14] Business Development - The company has successfully developed line module products and has begun shipping them, with expectations for significant growth in 2025. The company is one of the few in China to have mass-produced 56Gbps backplane connectors and is closing the technology gap with foreign leaders by developing 112/224G rate products [12][13] Market Outlook - The company is positioned for accelerated growth in the high-speed line module sector and is also expanding into automotive high-voltage and high-frequency connector markets, indicating a strong growth potential [12][13]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [9] Core Viewpoints - The sales side continues to improve, while the supply side remains to be repaired. The report anticipates that urban village renovation and the revitalization of existing properties and land reserves will be crucial supports for stabilizing the real estate market in 2025 [4][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Side: Continued Pressure on Investment Starts, Old Renovation and Land Reserves May Provide Support - In 2024, the cumulative national real estate development investment was CNY 100,280 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [13][20]. - The cumulative new construction area was 73,893 million square meters, down 23.0% year-on-year, with the decline remaining stable compared to the previous month [22]. - The cumulative completion area was 73,743 million square meters, down 27.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [25]. 2. Sales Side: Continuous Narrowing of Year-on-Year Decline, Structural Price Increase - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing in 2024 was 97,385 million square meters, down 12.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [14][29]. - The cumulative sales amount was CNY 96,750 billion, down 17.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [29]. - In December 2024, the sales area was 11,267 million square meters, down 0.5% year-on-year, while the sales amount was CNY 11,625 billion, up 2.4% year-on-year [14][29]. 3. Funding Side: Continuous Narrowing of Funding Decline, Sales Recovery Improves Cash Flow - The cumulative funding for real estate development enterprises was CNY 107,661 billion, down 17.0% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing for nine consecutive months [15][39]. - In December 2024, the funding was CNY 11,086 billion, down 7.1% year-on-year [15][39]. - The sources of funding showed declines in deposits and prepayments, personal mortgage loans, and domestic loans, with the declines narrowing further [15][39]. 4. Investment Recommendations: Continuous Focus on Leading State-Owned Enterprises and Improvement-Oriented Real Estate Companies - The report suggests focusing on leading state-owned enterprises and improvement-oriented real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities in core urban areas, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and others [4][16][50].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][17]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 32 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 51.5%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be around 31.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 45.3% [4][13]. - The production targets for 2024 include 1.07 million tons of copper, 73 tons of gold, 436 tons of silver, and 450,000 tons of zinc (lead) [4][14]. - For 2025, the company plans to increase its copper production to 1.15 million tons and gold production to 85 tons, among other targets [4][15]. - The company is also acquiring a 24.82% stake in Zangge Mining for 13.7 billion yuan, which will enhance its control over the Jilong Copper Mine and improve operational efficiency [4][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 32.04 billion yuan, 38.81 billion yuan, and 45.91 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 51.72%, 21.11%, and 18.30% [4][17]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.21 yuan, 1.46 yuan, and 1.73 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13.5, 11.1, and 9.4 [4][17]. Production and Capacity - The company aims to fully release its production capacity in 2024, with stable and high production levels in its main metals [4][14]. - The production forecast for 2025 includes significant increases in gold and lithium carbonate equivalent production, indicating a focus on expanding its resource base [4][15]. Strategic Acquisitions - The acquisition of Zangge Mining is expected to strengthen the company's position in the lithium market and enhance its operational capabilities in the region [4][16].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Multi-Dimensional Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines macro, micro, and meso signals with derivatives-based signals to form a four-dimensional non-linear timing model[24][25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Divide the A-share market into 9 states based on macro, meso, and micro signals, each corresponding to long/short signals[25] 2. Add derivatives signals derived from the basis of stock index futures to form a composite four-dimensional timing model[24] 3. Current macro environment prediction value is declining, meso-level prosperity is fluctuating at low levels, corresponding to state 4-2 in the three-dimensional model[25] 4. The latest derivative signal based on CSI 500 futures basis is 0.25 (long), resulting in a final composite signal of slightly increasing positions (0.25)[25] 2. Model Name: Industry Rotation Strategy 2.0 - **Model Construction Idea**: Constructs economic quadrants using credit and corporate earnings, and develops multi-dimensional industry style factors for rotation strategies[67] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define four economic quadrants: [Earnings Up, Credit Up], [Earnings Up, Credit Down], [Earnings Down, Credit Up], [Earnings Down, Credit Down][67] 2. Develop multi-dimensional industry style factors, including expected prosperity, exceeding expected earnings, leader effect, valuation bubble, reversal factor, momentum factor, crowding, and inflation beta[67] 3. Test the effectiveness of each factor in the four quadrants and allocate high-expected-return industries accordingly[67] 3. Model Name: Genetic Programming-Based Index Enhancement Models - **Model Construction Idea**: Uses genetic programming to mine factors and construct enhanced index models for stock selection[77][81][85][90] - **Model Construction Process**: - **CSI 300 Index Enhancement**: 1. Stock pool: CSI 300 constituents 2. Training set: 2016-01-01 to 2020-12-31 3. Factors: 102 factors derived from genetic programming (2000 initial populations, 5 generations, 7 rounds)[77] 4. Strategy: Weekly rebalance, selecting top 10% stocks in each industry based on model scores, with a transaction cost of 0.3%[77] - **CSI 500 Index Enhancement**: 1. Stock pool: CSI 500 constituents 2. Training set: 2016-01-01 to 2020-12-31 3. Factors: 189 factors derived from genetic programming (2000 initial populations, 5 generations, 8 rounds)[81] 4. Strategy: Weekly rebalance, selecting top 10% stocks in each industry based on model scores, with a transaction cost of 0.3%[81] - **CSI 1000 Index Enhancement**: 1. Stock pool: CSI 1000 constituents 2. Training set: 2016-01-01 to 2020-12-31 3. Factors: 564 factors derived from genetic programming (2000 initial populations, 5 generations, 4 rounds)[85] 4. Strategy: Weekly rebalance, selecting top 10% stocks in each industry based on model scores, with a transaction cost of 0.3%[85] - **CSI All-Share Index Enhancement**: 1. Stock pool: CSI All-Share constituents 2. Training set: 2016-01-01 to 2020-12-31 3. Factors: 709 factors derived from genetic programming (2000 initial populations, 5 generations, 10 rounds)[90] 4. Strategy: Weekly rebalance, selecting top 10% stocks in each industry based on model scores, with a transaction cost of 0.3%[90] --- Model Backtest Results 1. Multi-Dimensional Timing Model - **CSI 500 Futures Signal**: Weekly signal maintained at 0.4 to 1, triggering long signals on January 13, 14, and 17, 2025[41] - **CSI 300 Futures Signal**: Weekly signal maintained at -0.6 to -1, indicating short signals[41] 2. Industry Rotation Strategy 2.0 - **Annualized Excess Return**: - No exclusion version: 12.39%[69][74] - Double exclusion version: 12.65%[69][75] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: - No exclusion version: 1.06[74] - Double exclusion version: 1.08[75] 3. Genetic Programming-Based Index Enhancement Models - **CSI 300 Index**: - Annualized Excess Return: 19.59%[78] - IR: 1.95[79] - Sharpe Ratio: 1.02[79] - **CSI 500 Index**: - Annualized Excess Return: 12.97%[82] - IR: 1.26[84] - Sharpe Ratio: 0.74[84] - **CSI 1000 Index**: - Annualized Excess Return: 19.60%[86] - IR: 1.90[87] - Sharpe Ratio: 0.82[87] - **CSI All-Share Index**: - Annualized Excess Return: 25.25%[92] - IR: 4.85[94] - Sharpe Ratio: 1.21[94] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Industry Rotation Factors - **Construction Idea**: Develop multi-dimensional factors to capture industry rotation opportunities[67] - **Construction Process**: Includes factors such as expected prosperity, exceeding expected earnings, leader effect, valuation bubble, reversal factor, momentum factor, crowding, and inflation beta[67] 2. Factor Name: Barra Style Factors - **Construction Idea**: Evaluate market performance using 9 primary and 20 secondary style factors[43] - **Construction Process**: Factors include size, volatility, liquidity, momentum, quality, value, growth, analyst expectations, and dividends[43] --- Factor Backtest Results 1. Industry Rotation Factors - **Monthly Returns (January 2025)**: - Exceeding Expected Earnings: 0.11%[55] - Reversal Factor: 0.74%[55] - Momentum Factor: -0.74%[55] 2. Barra Style Factors - **Recent Performance (January 3-17, 2025)**: - Volatility Factor: 1.05% weekly return[45] - Momentum (Reversal): 1.09% weekly return[45] - Size Factor: -1.13% weekly return[45]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][16]. Core Insights - The company has released its 2024 performance forecast, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1-1.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.11%-70.62%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be 950-1,070 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 89.91%-113.90% [3][12][13]. - The company is focusing on its flagship product U8, enhancing its product structure and marketing strategies, which are expected to drive overall operational momentum upwards. The benefits from ongoing reforms are also anticipated to continue, with further cost reduction and efficiency improvement potential [3][14][15]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit margin of approximately 7% in 2024, showing a year-on-year improvement. Compared to peers, there is still room for improvement in the company's net profit margin, primarily due to high management expense ratios [15][16]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 15.101 billion yuan for 2024, with a growth rate of 6.25%. The net profit is expected to be 1.078 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 67.26% [16][20]. - For the years 2025 and 2026, the projected revenues are 15.941 billion yuan and 16.740 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 5.56% and 5.01%. The net profits for these years are expected to be 1.343 billion yuan and 1.601 billion yuan, with growth rates of 24.58% and 19.20% [16][20].

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [10] Core Viewpoints - The two-wheeler industry is expected to see significant demand elasticity in 2025, with shipments likely to achieve favorable growth due to several factors: 1) The official release of the new national standard is anticipated to release pent-up demand as consumers can still purchase vehicles under the old standard until the end of November [5][12] 2) The continuation of the "trade-in for new" policy at the beginning of 2025, coupled with substantial subsidies per vehicle, is expected to boost industry demand [5] 3) Following inventory destocking in Q3 2024, channel inventories remain at historically low levels, which are expected to gradually recover to normal levels [5] - The implementation of the new national standard's production requirements starting in Q4 2025 will accelerate the exit of non-compliant companies from the market [5] Summary by Sections Industry Events - The new mandatory national standard for electric bicycles (GB 17761—2024) was officially released on January 13, 2025, with an implementation date set for September 1, 2025, allowing an 8-month production transition period [12] - Changes from the draft to the official standard include the requirement for the BeiDou system installation only for electric bicycles used in commercial activities, allowing consumers to choose whether to include it for other types [12] - The production transition period has been extended from 6 months to 8 months, alleviating production pressure during peak sales seasons [12] Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the two-wheeler sector, highlighting that the combination of the new national standard, the continuation of trade-in policies, and low inventory levels will lead to robust operational growth for leading companies in the sector [5][12]

Group 1 - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [7] - Current Price: 42.55 Yuan [7] Group 2 - The company is accelerating its globalization process by establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary in Germany, investing 36 million Euros in Munich to set up Xinquan (Europe) Co., Ltd., and an additional 30 million Euros in Bavaria for Xinquan (Bavaria) Automotive Parts Co., Ltd. [5][12] - This overseas expansion is expected to enhance product quality and responsiveness, further expanding the customer base among high-end foreign brands in Bavaria [5][12] Group 3 - The company reported a record high revenue of 3.44 billion Yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 270 million Yuan, up 48.0% year-on-year and 33.1% quarter-on-quarter [12] - Key customers such as Geely, Chery, Li Auto, and BYD have shown significant sales growth, with respective sales of 2.177 million, 2.604 million, 501 thousand, and 4.25 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 32.0%, 38.4%, 33.1%, and 41.3% [12] Group 4 - The company is a leading manufacturer of interior components, with ongoing global expansion and diversification strategies. Recent developments include establishing a joint venture in Malaysia and improving profitability in Mexico, with H1 2024 revenue reaching 325 million Yuan [13] - The company aims to expand its product range beyond dashboards and door panels to include seat back panels and exterior components [13] Group 5 - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 132.1 billion Yuan, 172.0 billion Yuan, and 208.5 billion Yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.0%, 30.2%, and 21.2% respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 10.2 billion Yuan, 14.0 billion Yuan, and 18.7 billion Yuan, with growth rates of 26.7%, 37.2%, and 33.7% respectively [14] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a strong growth trajectory, with a projected CAGR of 32.4% from 2023 to 2026 [14]

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment recommendation of "Outperform the Market" for the detection services industry [8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the detection services industry is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth due to local government financial pressures and weak demand from some downstream industries. The industry is at a cyclical low, but it is expected to rebound in 2025 as economic policies are gradually implemented and companies' performance improves [5][12][51]. - The detection services sector's valuation has fallen to historical lows, which may have fully reflected current expectations. As the macroeconomic environment improves, the industry is anticipated to see supply and demand recovery, with specific focus on high-demand areas such as military chips and other self-controlled sectors [5][10][12][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Still in Bottoming Phase - As of December 31, 2024, the overall PE (TTM) for the SW detection services sector is 28.46 times, with a historical five-year PE percentile of 17.05%, and a five-year average PE of 50.19 times. The overall PB (LF) is 2.4 times, with a historical five-year PB percentile of 8.99% and a five-year average PB of 6.09 times [10][20]. - The detection services industry is closely tied to the macroeconomic environment, with weak domestic demand leading to an oversupply situation in 2023. However, as the macro environment improves, the industry is expected to see a recovery in supply and demand in 2025 [10][29]. 2. Demand in High-Growth Areas Expected to Rebound First - The manufacturing PMI in December 2024 is at 50.1%, indicating a stable manufacturing sector. The central economic work conference emphasizes maintaining stable economic growth and expanding domestic demand, which is expected to benefit the detection services sector [11][37]. - The military and satellite detection sectors are anticipated to see a rebound in demand. In 2023, China's defense spending reached 1,580.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, indicating a stable growth trend in military electronic component testing [40][41]. 3. Long-Term Growth Drivers - The electronic component testing industry is increasingly serving high-tech manufacturing, with significant growth in integrated circuit sales and production. In November 2024, electronic component sales increased by 24% year-on-year, and integrated circuit production rose by 23% from January to November 2024 [42][43]. - The automotive electronics market is projected to exceed 1.2 trillion RMB in 2024, driven by the ongoing development of automotive technology [45][46]. - The eVTOL industry is expected to reach a scale of 9.5 billion RMB by 2026, indicating a growing demand for third-party testing and validation services [48].

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业深度研究|医药生物 增量看空间，存量看结构 ——医药生物行业 2025 年投资策略 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年01月06日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 近年来医药指数回撤较多，产业端和投资端均面临一定的压力，人口结构性老龄化背景下医 保收支不平衡压力是医改需要考虑的因素，医药产业进入后集采时代的新常态。存量看结构， 增量看空间，医药板块的长期投资要把握医改背景下产业链利益再分配的存量结构性机会和 老龄化和出海带来的增量机会，未来 1 年维度建议重视创新药出海和左侧资产估值修复的潜 在机会。 |分析师及联系人 郑薇 付鹏飞 SAC：S0590521070002 SAC：S0590524110003 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 70 行业研究|行业深度研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年01月06日 医药生物 增量看空间，存量看结构 ——医药生物行业 2025 年投资策略 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -30% -10% 10% 30% 2024/1 2024/5 2024/9 2025/1 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业深度研究|建筑材料 政策或改善需求，重视供给侧变化 ——建材建筑 2025 年度投资策略 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年01月06日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 地产链材料板块，近期水泥错峰生产执行力度加强支撑价格改善，同时应重视行业供给方面 重要政策推出及效果，重视水泥龙头；非地产链重视玻纤/药包材等，关注细分领域景气上行 机会、关注药包材模制瓶龙头如山东药玻等。建筑板块，我们认为地方政府化债力度加大或有 利于改善企业回款及资产质量，建议关注：1）估值低、较好分红且更受益化债政策的央企， 如中国建筑/中国交建等；2）积极转型变革及海外市场持续突破的企业如中材国际/中钢国际 /中国化学/北方国际等。 |分析师及联系人 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 43 武慧东 朱思敏 吴红艳 SAC：S0590523080005 SAC：S0590524050002 行业研究|行业深度研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年01月06日 建筑材料 政策或改善需求，重视供给侧变化 ——建材建筑 2025 年度投资策略 2024 年 9 月以来政策基调有 ...