证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|计算机 模型持续进步，世界模型概念逐步成型 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年06月08日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 本周在 AI 智源大会上，2024ACM 图灵奖得主 Richard Sutton 分享了主题 AI 正从"人类数据 时代"迈入"体验时代"。在此宣讲中，他强调当前 AI 大模型训练依赖于互联网与人类生成 的数据，如文本、图像，并通过人类微调进行优化。ChatGPT 作为模仿人类行为和预测人类意 图方面的成功产物。但现在高质量人类数据几乎耗尽，生成新知识需要超越模仿，进而与世界 进行互动，由此 AI 进入"体验时代"。AI 下一步或像人类或动物一样，从第一人称经验中学 习。未来 AI 或进入以智能体为代表，通过与世界直接交互，获取经验。 |分析师及联系人 陈安宇 SAC：S0590523080004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年06月08日 计算机 模型持续进步，世界模型概念逐步成型 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|汽车 国内超豪华汽车专题：进口韧性未衰， 自主破局或至 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年06月08日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 报告主要对国内主流超豪华汽车市场进行了深入分析，并分车身形式进行详细介绍。从总量 来看，传统主流超豪华汽车规模可观，自主品牌或开启结构性突围，市场份额从 2023 年的 0.8% 增长为 2024 年的 4.8%。分车身形式来看，超豪华 SUV 市场竞争激烈，保时捷 Cayenne 持续引 领,自主品牌仰望 U8 开始崭露头角。进口品牌几乎垄断超豪华轿车市场，仰望 U9 等自主高端 车型陆续上市，5 月 30 日尊界 S800 正式上市有望引领豪华轿车新标杆。丰田埃尔法引领超豪 华 MPV 市场，极氪 009 光辉版逐步突围。 |分析师及联系人 高登 喻虎 SAC：S0590523110004 SAC：S0590524120002 扫码查看更多 行业事件 仰望 U8/U9、蔚来 ET9 等自主智能电动超豪华汽车陆续上市，开启自主品牌向上， 份额稳步提升。华为联合江淮汽车打造的超豪华汽车尊界 S800 于 5 月 ...

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司深度|中国船舶租赁（03877） 产业壁垒较高、商业模式优异的高股息 标的 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年06月08日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司作为全球船舶租赁商龙头之一，具备五大核心优势。其一为背靠中国船舶集团，产业背景 深厚，产业资源丰富；其二为公司商业模式优异，固定+弹性收益在增强公司成长性的同时也 提升公司跨越周期的能力；其三为公司绿色转型较早，当前船队节能型船舶占比高达 89%，后 续环保达标压力小；其四为公司资质较好，融资成本较低，2024 年仅有 3.56%；其五为公司分 红水平较高，股息率维持在 7%以上。基于此，公司整体业绩表现优异，估值仍有提升空间。 |分析师及联系人 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 29 刘雨辰 陈昌涛 SAC：S0590522100001 港股公司|公司深度 glzqdatemark2 2025年06月08日 中国船舶租赁(03877) 产业壁垒较高、商业模式优异的高股息标的 | 行 业： | 非银金融/多元金融 | | --- | --- | | 投资评级： | 买入（首次） | | 当前价 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [6][19]. Core Viewpoints - The integration of AI and IoT is creating a world of interconnected devices, with the potential to generate more IoT application scenarios and higher-value hardware products. The company leverages its understanding of the fragmented IoT industry to expand into new markets while solidifying its presence in established ones [4][11][17]. - The company's revenue reached a historical high of 1.402 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.85%. New business segments, particularly smart sleep terminals and smart travel components, contributed significantly to this growth [12][19]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI-driven IoT solutions, with a focus on enhancing its product matrix and expanding into high-value services [20][69]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading domestic IoT terminal manufacturer with a diverse product matrix covering smart transportation, smart travel, smart payment, and smart sleep [11][30]. - The company has successfully transitioned from a focus on vehicle networking to a broader IoT ecosystem, demonstrating its ability to capture new market opportunities [24][25]. AI and IoT Integration - The report highlights the accelerating development of the AIoT industry, driven by advancements in AI technologies like DeepSeek, which enhance service experiences and create new market demands [13][46]. - The global IoT market is projected to grow significantly, with the number of connected devices expected to reach 29.7 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 16% [41][42]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1.402 billion yuan in 2024, with a notable increase in contributions from innovative business lines such as smart sleep terminals, which generated 199 million yuan, accounting for 14.17% of total revenue [12][19]. - The company's net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 227 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.06% [19][20]. Market Opportunities - The implementation of the eCall system in China is expected to create substantial market opportunities, as the policy is set to enhance vehicle safety and emergency response capabilities [14][58]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, with a reported revenue of 327 million yuan from international sales in 2024, marking a 399.37% increase from previous years [31][34].

Group 1: Dividend Asset Performance - Recent period saw a rapid "contraction" of dividend assets, with all sectors underperforming except for the banking industry[6] - The proportion of stocks with a Sharp Ratio higher than the index indicates that the "contraction" of dividend assets has reached an extreme historical level[7] - Despite the gradual increase in valuation levels, dividend assets still have significant room for further appreciation compared to historical peaks[8] Group 2: Strategies for Outperforming Dividend Assets - Two main strategies are proposed: 1. Assess market trends to select enhancement directions, favoring high dividend + high ROE and high profit growth in strong markets, while opting for high dividend + low PB and low PE in weaker markets[8] 2. Adopt a mixed strategy that combines defensive and offensive indicators to ensure performance across various market conditions, with a recommendation for high dividend + low PB + high profit growth[8] - Historical data suggests that high dividend combined with high quality or high profit growth offers better value when enhancing dividend assets[26] Group 3: Market Trends and Sentiment - The market is gradually stabilizing, with a shift towards value styles, particularly favoring small-cap and value stocks[32] - Recent performance shows that sectors like environmental protection and pharmaceuticals have outperformed, while automotive and power equipment lagged[32] - Adjustments in earnings expectations have been significant across industries, with notable upward revisions in metals and transportation sectors[41]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Insights - From a model perspective, the DeepSeek R1 model, which is set to be open-sourced in early 2025, is expected to narrow the performance gap between domestic AI models and their overseas counterparts. The next-generation R2 model's release schedule is worth monitoring [4][9] - 2025 is anticipated to be the year of AI application implementation, with AI Agents recognized as a significant direction for AI applications globally. Domestic companies are expected to leverage enhanced model capabilities and a vast C-end user ecosystem to foster widespread AI applications [4][9] Summary by Sections Model Performance - The latest version of DeepSeek R1 has shown significant improvements in deep thinking capabilities, achieving a mathematical accuracy rate of 87.5% in the AIME2025 test, up from 70% in the previous version. The average token usage per question increased from 12K to 23K, indicating deeper reasoning [8][9] - The model's text processing capabilities have also improved, with a 45-50% reduction in "hallucination" rates, leading to more accurate and reliable outputs in various scenarios [8][9] Application Landscape - The report highlights that AI Agents are becoming a consensus among global tech giants, with significant developments in both overseas and domestic markets. Companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance are expected to launch Agent products, capitalizing on improved model capabilities and user ecosystems [4][9][10] - The report suggests monitoring companies that have early layouts in AI models and applications, including Kaiying Network, Kunlun Wanwei, Giant Network, and others [4][10]

Group 1: Historical Context of Global Currencies - Since 1500, there have been three major changes in global currencies, with the transition from the British pound to the US dollar being the most recent[6] - The dollar began to surpass the pound in economic size after 1870, but only significantly led in global trade after World War II[7] - Historical transitions of global currencies often coincide with the rise and fall of major powers, indicating a strong correlation between a nation's economic strength and its currency's status[18] Group 2: Current Economic Indicators - The US debt level is currently higher than during World War II, with projections indicating that public debt as a percentage of GDP could reach 156% by 2055, up from 98% in 2024[38] - If the dollar ceases to be the global currency, long-term US Treasury rates could rise by up to 80 basis points, with current trends showing a 55 basis point increase despite a 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve[9] - The dollar's value relative to other currencies and gold may decline, as historical data shows significant depreciation during past currency transitions[9] Group 3: Future Implications and Risks - The potential end of the dollar's status as the global currency could lead to significant disruptions in capital markets, affecting stocks, bonds, and exchange rates[56] - The current geopolitical climate, including trade tensions and tariff policies, may accelerate the transition away from the dollar, reminiscent of historical precedents[62] - The historical pattern suggests that major currency transitions are often accompanied by economic crises or wars, indicating that the US may face similar challenges if it does not address its debt issues[60]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [5][12]. Core Insights - The company is a leading one-stop solution brand for home dining in China, ranking first among all retailers. It focuses on hot pot and barbecue meal categories, providing diverse, high-quality, and cost-effective products through a franchise model, establishing a significant scale advantage with a community central kitchen concept. After experiencing operational fluctuations during the pandemic, the company has innovated its store model, implemented a best-selling product strategy, and strengthened its membership ecosystem, leading to a recovery in same-store sales and a return to growth. Looking ahead, the company is expected to achieve sustainable growth through "quality supply, cost-effectiveness, and food equity" [3][11][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has expanded its sales network from B2B to B2C since its establishment in 2015, growing from 1,441 stores in early 2020 to 10,150 stores by the end of 2024, covering all provinces in China [27][28]. Industry Analysis - The home dining market in China has seen rapid growth, with a market size increasing from 3,248.2 billion RMB in 2018 to 5,615.6 billion RMB in 2022, reflecting a CAGR of 14.7%. The proportion of home dining meal products is expected to rise from 4.55% in 2022 to 13.22% by 2027 [11][49][54]. Competitive Advantages - The company offers a three-pronged competitive advantage through products, channels, and supply chain integration. Its products are generally priced 60%-80% lower than social dining channels and about 20% lower than supermarket retail channels. The average profit margin for franchisees is between 8%-10%, indicating a healthy and sustainable model [11][12][14]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 71.2 billion RMB, 82.4 billion RMB, and 95.2 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 10.1%, 15.6%, and 15.6%. The gross margin is expected to improve slightly, reaching 22.4% by 2027. The core operating net profit is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20% over three years [12][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [6][21]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of fungicides, having built a comprehensive industrial chain through mergers and acquisitions, covering pesticide raw materials/formulations, veterinary drugs, and new energy materials. Key products such as Bacillus thuringiensis, Mancozeb, Glyphosate, Abamectin, and Methomyl have significant production capacity in China. The company emphasizes R&D investment and is advancing a dual-driven strategy of "AI + Pesticides" and synthetic biology, which is expected to enhance its first-mover advantage in the field of green pesticide creation. In the short term, the company is expected to benefit from rising prices of its main products, leading to a recovery in profitability. In the long term, the AI + synthetic biology technology is anticipated to lead industry development, transitioning the company from a "traditional pesticide manufacturer" to a "smart agricultural solution provider" [4][12][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer of fungicides in China, having established a full industrial chain through strategic mergers and acquisitions. Its core products have significant market shares domestically, and it is focusing on integrating AI algorithms with biological synthesis technology to strengthen its competitive edge in green pesticide innovation [4][13][26]. 2. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, the company is expected to benefit from price increases in key products such as Abamectin, Methomyl, Bacillus thuringiensis, and Mancozeb, which will enhance profitability. Long-term prospects are bolstered by the company's strategic focus on AI and synthetic biology, which positions it to lead the industry and transition to providing smart agricultural solutions [12][18][21]. 3. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 51.1 billion, 55.5 billion, and 59.9 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of +21%, +9%, and +8% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.5 billion, 5.2 billion, and 6.0 billion yuan, with growth rates of +448%, +16%, and +15% respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.06, 1.23, and 1.42 yuan per share for the same period [16][21][17]. 4. Product Segmentation - The company has a diversified product matrix that includes fungicides, insecticides, herbicides, and veterinary drugs. It has established a strong market position with leading products in each category, supported by advanced production technologies and a focus on sustainable practices [4][12][36]. 5. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company maintains a strong market position with significant production capacities in key products. Its competitive advantages include advanced production processes, a focus on green manufacturing, and a stable supply chain, which collectively enhance its market resilience and growth potential [4][12][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the non-bank financial sector [1]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is expected to significantly benefit from improved liquidity, with a historical high in average daily trading volume (ADT) observed in Q1 2025 [4][8]. - The correlation between Hong Kong stocks and U.S. Treasury yields indicates that liquidity is a primary driver of Hong Kong stock performance during certain economic conditions [5][8]. - The valuation of HKEX is currently in a recovery phase, with potential for further increases as market conditions improve [17]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Liquidity Improvement - The relationship between HKEX and U.S. Treasury yields shows that U.S. dollar liquidity is a key factor affecting HKEX's ADT [8]. - Since 2025, the average daily trading volume has rebounded significantly due to factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and a renewed interest in Chinese assets [8][10]. - HKEX has a strong beta attribute, with its total market value highly correlated with ADT, indicating optimistic long-term growth expectations [12][13]. Section 2: Growth Potential - Southbound capital flows are expected to further drive growth in HKEX's ADT, with a notable increase in the proportion of Southbound capital holdings in Hong Kong stocks [21][25]. - The diversification of HKEX's business, particularly in derivatives, has enhanced short-term revenue stability [31]. - An increase in IPO fundraising is anticipated to boost HKEX's ADT, with a strong pipeline of companies waiting to list [37][38]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a focus on the non-bank financial sector, highlighting the potential for continued market recovery and the structural reforms benefiting leading brokerage firms [41].