Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs, significantly up from 12,000 in October, with a three-month average of 173,000 jobs added[2] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.145% in October to 4.246% in November, exceeding expectations of 4.1%[9] - The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%[31] Wage and Hours - Average hourly earnings increased by 4.03% year-over-year in November, slightly down from 4.05% in October, with a month-over-month increase of 0.37%[81] - The average weekly hours worked rose by 0.1 hours to 34.3 hours in November[82] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December increased from below 70% to nearly 90%[2] - Bond yields generally declined, while stock market reactions were mixed, with non-essential consumer stocks showing the highest gains[9] Job Vacancies - Job openings rose to 7.744 million in October, an increase of 372,000 from September, indicating a slight balance between supply and demand in the labor market[9] - The average number of initial unemployment claims in November was 219,000, down by 18,000 from October[9]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The recent U.S. export control measures, which added 140 Chinese companies to the entity list, are expected to have limited short-term impact on the semiconductor industry, but may accelerate the domestic production of the semiconductor supply chain in the long term [2][12][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Semiconductor Sanctions and Equipment Components - On December 2, 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced new export control measures, adding 140 Chinese companies to the entity list, affecting semiconductor manufacturing equipment and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) [11][21]. - The core content of the sanctions includes the addition of 140 companies to the entity list, new control measures for HBM, and an expansion of the categories of semiconductor manufacturing equipment subject to control [12][22]. - Companies like North Huachuang and Huada Jiutian stated that the impact of being on the entity list is generally controllable and will not have a substantial effect on their business [2][21]. 2. Call for Chip Localization by Industry Associations - Four major industry associations in China have collectively opposed the U.S. export restrictions, urging companies to be cautious in purchasing U.S. chips and to expand cooperation with chip manufacturers from other countries [11][37]. - The demand for automotive chips is expected to increase significantly due to the electrification and intelligence of vehicles, with the number of chips required for electric vehicles projected to rise to 1,600 per vehicle [38]. - The optical chip market is rapidly developing, with the global optical module market expected to reach $11.3 billion by 2025, driven by the demand from data centers [39]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the domestic semiconductor equipment and materials supply chain, with recommended companies including Yake Technology, Zhongwei Company, and North Huachuang [14][48]. - Attention should also be given to the AI computing power supply chain, as the demand for HBM is expected to grow alongside AI applications [48]. - The recovery of consumer electronics and the launch of new AI hardware products are anticipated to boost sales in the consumer electronics sector [51].

Cabinet Composition - Trump's new cabinet members have a total wealth nearly 60 times that of Biden's cabinet[9] - The majority of Trump's cabinet members belong to Generation X, born between 1965-1980[9] - Six members of Trump's cabinet hold Juris Doctor (JD) degrees, reflecting the "lawyer-led" governance characteristic of the U.S.[9] Economic Policy - Trump's potential economic policies can be summarized as three arrows: tax cuts, deregulation, and tariffs[9] - The new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has a "3-3-3" plan aiming to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028, increase GDP growth to 3%, and boost U.S. energy production by 3 million barrels per day[9] Regulatory Environment - Deregulation is expected to be a significant component of Trump's economic policy, with potential changes in leadership at major financial regulatory agencies[9] - There may be a relaxation of regulations on cryptocurrencies and a reduction in banking regulatory requirements[9] Trade Policy - Trump's trade representative nominee, Jamieson Greer, advocates for increased tariffs and stricter export controls to protect U.S. technology, indicating a potential return to protectionism[9] Demographic Insights - Trump's cabinet has a lower percentage of women at 31% compared to Biden's 38%[25] - The cabinet is predominantly white, with only three members from minority backgrounds, contrasting with Biden's cabinet which has a higher representation of minorities[25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422) for the first time [7] Core Views - Kelun Pharmaceutical has successfully diversified its strategy, leading in the domestic infusion market and expanding into APIs, generics, and innovative drugs [2] - The company has 154 generic drugs launched by H1 2024, with a strong presence in parenteral nutrition, bacterial infections, and fluid balance [2] - Kelun's innovative drug pipeline includes SKB264, a pan-cancer ADC drug developed in collaboration with Merck, with significant market potential both domestically and internationally [2] Business Overview Infusion Business - Kelun is a leading player in China's infusion market, with sales of approximately 4.38 billion bottles/bags in 2023 [11] - The company is driving industry upgrades through high-end infusion products like ready-to-mix solutions and collapsible bags [2] - Infusion capacity expansion and product innovation are expected to boost market share [15] API Business - Kelun ranks among the global leaders in the production of erythromycin thiocyanate, cephalosporin intermediates, and penicillin intermediates [2] - The company is a pioneer in synthetic biology in China, with products already in delivery [2] - API business revenue grew from CNY 3.65 billion in 2020 to CNY 4.82 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.7% [115] Generic Drugs - By H1 2024, Kelun had launched 154 generic drugs, establishing advantages in parenteral nutrition, bacterial infections, and fluid balance [2] - The company has 47 products (67 specifications) selected in national centralized procurement, making it a leading supplier [105] Innovative Drugs - Kelun is collaborating with Merck on multiple innovative drug projects, including the pan-cancer ADC drug SKB264 [2] - The global ADC drug market is projected to grow from USD 14.2 billion in 2024 to USD 64.7 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 28.8% [11] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 22.02 billion in 2024 to CNY 25.23 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 7.1% [16] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from CNY 2.96 billion in 2024 to CNY 3.89 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.7% [16] - EPS is forecasted to rise from CNY 1.85 in 2024 to CNY 2.43 in 2026 [16] Industry Analysis Infusion Market - China's infusion production reached approximately 10.5 billion bottles/bags in 2022, with Kelun being a major contributor [11] - The infusion market is expected to stabilize and recover, with Kelun well-positioned to benefit from capacity expansion and product upgrades [73] ADC Drug Market - The global ADC drug market is projected to grow significantly, driven by the combination of PD1/PDL1 inhibitors with ADC drugs [60] - Kelun's SKB264 has shown best-in-class potential in multiple indications, with broad market prospects [11] Centralized Procurement Impact - Centralized procurement has led to rapid volume growth for Kelun's generic drugs, with 47 products selected across nine batches [105] - The company's strategy of continuous new product approvals ensures stable revenue and profit growth in the generics segment [105]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The real estate market shows signs of recovery with policy support driving demand release, particularly in key cities. November marked the first month of positive year-on-year growth in new home sales for 2024 [11][21]. - The second-hand housing market continues to see a trend of price adjustments for volume, with significant growth in transaction volumes, especially in first-tier cities [11][30]. - The land market is experiencing a rebound in activity, with an increase in transaction premium rates and a decrease in the auction failure rate, indicating improved market conditions [11][41]. Sales Sector - **Volume**: From January to November 2024, the cumulative transaction area of commercial housing in 35 cities reached 136.21 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.42%, with the decline narrowing by 3.43 percentage points compared to the previous period. In November alone, the transaction area was 15.80 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 20.68% and a year-on-year increase of 14.41%, marking the first positive growth of the year [11][21]. - **Price**: In November 2024, the average transaction price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,592 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.36% and a year-on-year increase of 2.40%. The average price of second-hand homes was 14,278 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.29% [30]. - **Developers**: The cumulative sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies from January to November 2024 was 371.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.86%, with the decline narrowing by 1.94 percentage points compared to the previous period. In November, the sales amount was 38.65 billion yuan, down 9.81% year-on-year [35][39]. Land Sector - **Volume and Price**: From January to November 2024, the cumulative transaction area of residential land in 300 cities was 25,308 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 27.39%, with the decline narrowing by 3.09 percentage points compared to the previous period. The average transaction floor price was 5,837 yuan per square meter, down 6.96% year-on-year [41][44]. - **By Tier**: In November, the average transaction floor price in high-tier cities increased, while the overall market still shows lower activity compared to the same period last year [41][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the insurance industry [7][65]. Core Insights - The sales environment for the 2025 insurance season is expected to be favorable due to positive factors on both the supply and demand sides. On the demand side, low risk appetite among residents will keep savings-type insurance products attractive. On the supply side, the competitive advantage of insurance products with guaranteed interest rates of 2.5% and 2.0% is expected to persist, supported by improved agent activity rates and productivity [2][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Importance of the Opening Sales Season - The opening sales season significantly contributes to annual performance, with January and Q1 premiums accounting for over 20% and 30% of annual totals, respectively. In 2023, major insurers had January premiums contributing 31.5% to 39.0% of their annual totals [11][21]. - The shift from "pre-collection" to "pre-recording" for policy underwriting is anticipated for 2025, influenced by regulatory guidance aimed at stabilizing business development [28][32]. 2. Favorable Factors for 2025 Opening Sales Season - Demand Side: Residents' low risk appetite favors savings-type insurance products due to their guaranteed returns [41][42]. - Supply Side: With declining deposit rates, insurance products like the 2.5% guaranteed increase whole life insurance and 2.0% participating insurance remain competitive. The improvement in agent productivity is also expected to support new policy sales [41][46]. - The NBV (New Business Value) is projected to achieve positive growth in 2025, supported by improved NBV margins due to regulatory guidance and product structure optimization [59][63]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong liability performance and better fundamentals, such as China Pacific Insurance, China Life, Ping An Insurance, New China Life, and China Re [65][68].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][8]. Core Insights - In November 2024, the company delivered 48,740 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.8%. The projected revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 147.3 billion, 205.4 billion, and 280 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%, 39.4%, and 36.3% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 8.53 billion, 14.24 billion, and 23.72 billion yuan, with growth rates of -27.1%, 67.0%, and 66.6% respectively. The EPS is projected to be 4.02, 6.71, and 11.18 yuan per share, with a 3-year CAGR of 40.6% [3][12]. Summary by Sections Delivery Performance - The company achieved a delivery of 48,740 vehicles in November 2024, marking an 18.8% increase year-on-year. Cumulatively, 442,000 vehicles have been delivered as of November 30, 2024. The company has maintained its position as the leading Chinese brand in the 200,000 yuan and above new energy vehicle segment for eight consecutive months [3][12]. Product and Technology Development - The company has accelerated its software capabilities with the AD Max version, which has been rolled out to all users of the AD Max platform. The penetration rate of the end-to-end + VLM system in tested cities has exceeded 50%. The demand for AD Max models has increased significantly, with over 70% of sales in models priced above 300,000 yuan and over 80% in models priced above 400,000 yuan [3][12]. Ecosystem and Infrastructure - As of November 30, 2024, the company has established 475 retail centers across 141 cities and 451 after-sales service centers covering 223 cities. The company has also deployed 1,135 charging stations and 5,680 charging piles nationwide, enhancing its ecosystem [3][12]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 147.3 billion, 205.4 billion, and 280 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.53 billion, 14.24 billion, and 23.72 billion yuan. The EPS is expected to grow to 4.02, 6.71, and 11.18 yuan per share over the same period [3][12].

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for XPeng Motors-W (09868) [3][8] Core Views - XPeng Motors delivered 30,895 vehicles in November 2024, a 54% YoY and 29% MoM increase [3][12] - Expected sales for 2024/2025/2026 are 190,000/420,000/640,000 vehicles, with revenues of 434.0/922.9/1382.8 billion yuan, respectively [3][12] - Net profit forecasts for 2024/2025/2026 are -6.51/0.70/3.42 billion yuan, indicating a potential financial turnaround [3][12] - The MONA M03 model has been a hit, with over 10,000 units delivered monthly for three consecutive months, while the P7+ model delivered over 7,000 units in 23 days [12] - XPeng's XNGP urban autonomous driving system achieved an 85% monthly active user penetration rate in November 2024 [12] - The company is expanding globally, entering markets in Nepal and the UK, with further plans for Europe, ASEAN, and other regions [12] Financial Data and Valuation - Total shares outstanding: 1,899 million, with a market cap of 92,679.87 million HKD [8] - Net asset value per share: 20.51 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.04% [8] - Revenue growth rates for 2024/2025/2026 are projected at 41.5%/112.6%/49.8%, respectively [3][12] - EBITDA for 2024/2025/2026 is forecasted at -2,472.59/5,695.07/9,206.22 million yuan [13] - EPS for 2024/2025/2026 is expected to be -3.43/0.37/1.80 yuan per share [13] Industry and Market Performance - XPeng Motors operates in the automotive/passenger vehicle sector [8] - The stock price has shown significant volatility, with a 52-week high/low of 65.50/25.50 HKD [8] - Relative performance compared to the Hang Seng Index shows XPeng outperforming in recent months [9] Strategic Developments - XPeng's "Park-to-Park" autonomous driving solution successfully completed its first test, showcasing advancements in end-to-end autonomous technology [12] - The company's AI Tianji 5.4.0 system, featuring 248 updates across AI driving, cabin, chassis, and connectivity, is now in public testing [12] - XPeng's global strategy is accelerating, with plans to expand further into Europe, ASEAN, and other key regions [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - BYD achieved a record high in November sales, with total new energy vehicle sales reaching 504,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 67.2% and a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [2][11] - The sales of pure electric vehicles were 198,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.4% and a month-on-month growth of 4.5% [2][11] - Plug-in hybrid sales reached 306,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 133.1% but a month-on-month decline of 1.6% [2][11] - Overseas sales amounted to 31,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% and a month-on-month decline of 0.7% [2][11] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November 2024, BYD's new energy passenger car sales reached 504,000 units, with significant growth in both year-on-year and month-on-month metrics [2][11] - The company continues to innovate with the DM5.0 technology, enhancing product competitiveness and profitability [11] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 813.06 billion, 952.98 billion, and 1,162.64 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.0%, 17.2%, and 22.0% [12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 39.72 billion, 51.11 billion, and 64.19 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 32.2%, 28.7%, and 25.6% respectively [12] Market Position - BYD is positioned as a global leader in the new energy sector, with strong growth potential driven by high-end models and international expansion [11][12] - The high-end brand sales for January to November 2024 reached 163,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 39.5% [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company achieved a total automobile sales of 127,000 units in November, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and a month-on-month increase of 9.1%. Cumulatively, from January to November, the total sales reached 1.098 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. The peak season of the industry, combined with the effects of the trade-in policy, is expected to further boost sales in December [2][11] - The company has successfully met its annual export target, with overseas sales reaching 43,000 units in November, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%. Cumulatively, from January to November, overseas sales totaled 412,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%. The company is expected to further increase its overseas sales in 2025, supported by the opening of new dealerships and the upcoming production of its factory in Brazil [11] - The launch of the new model "Blue Mountain" with advanced driving capabilities has been announced, enhancing the company's competitive edge in intelligent electric vehicles. This model is expected to contribute positively to sales growth [11] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 218.1 billion, 266.4 billion, and 314.9 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 22%, and 18% [11] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 13.5 billion, 15.2 billion, and 17.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 92%, 13%, and 14% [11] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.6, 1.8, and 2.0 yuan per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% [11]