证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|电力设备 大储新兴市场需求高增，出口龙头充分 受益 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月24日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 通过复盘各传统大储市场需求起量的时间节点，我们认为，对于欧美等具备较高天然气发电 比例的电力系统中，20%的风光发电量渗透率可视为储能需求起量的关键临界点；而对于我国 和印度等缺乏天然气等灵活性资源的电力系统而言，储能需求快速起量的临界点或将更早到 来。当前印度用电量及峰值负荷持续增长带来光储需求高增的机遇；欧盟国家整体风光渗透 率已达到 27%，进一步强化了储能的调节需求；中东国家战略推动新能源转型，类微网项目带 来高比例配储需求。全球大储新兴市场逐渐涌现，行业需求有望维持高速增长。 |分析师及联系人 贺朝晖 梁丰铄 SAC：S0590521100002 SAC：S0590523040002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 18 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月24日 电力设备 大储新兴市场需求高增，出口龙头充分受益 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|银行 金融多举措发力支持高质量发展 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月24日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 9 月 24 日，国务院新闻办公室召开新闻发布会，宣布拟：1）降准 50bp；2）下调存 量按揭贷款利率 50bp 左右；3）降息，7 天期逆回购利率从 1.7%下调至 1.5%；4）创设新的货 币政策工具，支持股票市场稳定发展。 |分析师及联系人 刘雨辰 SAC：S0590522100001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 行业研究|行业点评研究 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------- ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|房地产 一揽子涉房政策出台，多维度支持地产 企稳 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月24日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 9 月 24 日，国新办宣布多项政策以提振房地产市场。首先，央行将下调存款准备金率和 7 天 逆回购操作利率，释放长期流动性并推动 LPR 下调，改善房企融资环境。其次，存量房贷利率 预计平均下调 0.5 个百分点，惠及 5000 万户家庭，减轻购房者负担，支撑房价。第三，二套 房首付比例下调至 15%，降低购房成本，促进改善性需求释放。此外，央行提高保障性住房再 贷款支持比例，助力房企盘活存量土地，缓解资金压力。建议关注重点布局深耕一线及核心二 线城市，主打改善性产品，具备持续拿地能力的房企，以及拥有核心竞争力的房产中介平台。 |分析师及联系人 杜昊旻 姜好幸 SAC：S0590524070006 SAC：S0590524070008 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 7 行业研究|行业点评研究 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|房地产 一揽子涉房政策出台，多维度支持地产 企稳 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月24日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 9 月 24 日，国新办宣布多项政策以提振房地产市场。首先，央行将下调存款准备金率和 7 天 逆回购操作利率，释放长期流动性并推动 LPR 下调，改善房企融资环境。其次，存量房贷利率 预计平均下调 0.5 个百分点，惠及 5000 万户家庭，减轻购房者负担，支撑房价。第三，二套 房首付比例下调至 15%，降低购房成本，促进改善性需求释放。此外，央行提高保障性住房再 贷款支持比例，助力房企盘活存量土地，缓解资金压力。建议关注重点布局深耕一线及核心二 线城市，主打改善性产品，具备持续拿地能力的房企，以及拥有核心竞争力的房产中介平台。 |分析师及联系人 杜昊旻 姜好幸 SAC：S0590524070006 SAC：S0590524070008 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 7 行业研究|行业点评研究 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a guideline on September 20, 2024, aiming to complete the update of approximately 2 million sets of industrial software and 800,000 sets of industrial operating systems by 2027, which is expected to accelerate domestic substitution opportunities for leading domestic enterprises [3][10] - The industrial software sector has seen a 10.5% year-on-year revenue growth in the first seven months of 2024, reaching 156.4 billion yuan, indicating a robust market environment [10] - Domestic market share of industrial software products has increased, but there remains a significant gap compared to foreign products, particularly in high-end software categories [10] Summary by Sections Policy Guidance - The guideline emphasizes the importance of updating industrial software and operating systems to enhance the resilience and security of the industrial supply chain, focusing on key sectors such as petroleum, chemicals, aviation, and automotive [10] Market Performance - The industrial software sector's revenue growth outpaced the overall software industry, reflecting strong demand and the effectiveness of recent policies [10] Competitive Landscape - The domestic industrial software market is witnessing increased competition from new entrants and traditional software vendors, which may impact market dynamics [10]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|计算机 指南明确工业软件设备更新目标，有望 加速国产替代 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月24日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 9 月 20 日，工业和信息化部办公厅印发《工业重点行业领域设备更新和技术改造指南 的通知》，到 2027 年，完成约 200 万套工业软件和 80 万台套工业操作系统更新换代任务。细 分领域国内领先企业有望受益于政策指引下的国产替代加速机遇。 |分析师及联系人 黄楷 SAC：S0590522090001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月24日 计算机 指南明确工业软件设备更新目标，有望加速 国产替代 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -40% -23% -7% 10% 2023/9 2024/1 2024/5 2024/9 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《计算机：OpenAI 发布 o1 模型，推理能 力提升或改变行业生态》2024.09.16 2、《计算机：Q2 盈利同比降幅明显 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [4] Core Views - The US Biosecurity Act, which has caused market concerns, is unlikely to be passed in 2024 due to tight legislative timelines and failed attempts to include it as an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) [6][7][8] - Even if the Biosecurity Act is passed, its impact on domestic CXO (Contract Research Organization) companies is expected to be limited due to unclear regulatory targets, long grace periods, and uncertainties in the list of affected Chinese companies [20][21][22][23][24] - The CXO industry is expected to see valuation recovery and marginal improvement, driven by the reduced likelihood of the Biosecurity Act passing and the US interest rate cut cycle [9][25] Key Points by Section Biosecurity Act Legislative Progress - The Biosecurity Act, aimed at restricting Chinese pharmaceutical suppliers' business in the US, includes standalone bills (e.g., S.3385, H.R.7085, H.R.8333) and attempts to attach it as an amendment to the NDAA [6][12] - The standalone bill H.R.8333, which has passed the House, faces tight timelines for Senate approval, with only 29 working days left in 2024, making its passage unlikely [7][19] - The Biosecurity Act failed to be included as an amendment in the 2024 NDAA, further reducing its chances of becoming law [8][16] Potential Impact of the Biosecurity Act - The Act does not clearly define the regulated entities or business scope, leaving uncertainties for companies like those in the CXO sector [20] - If passed, the Act would provide a 60-180 day grace period for compliance, with exemptions extendable up to 545 days, and grandfather clauses allowing existing contracts to remain valid until 2032 [21][22] - The list of affected Chinese companies remains uncertain, with significant opposition in the House vote, particularly from Democrats [23][24] CXO Industry Outlook - Global pharmaceutical R&D activity is recovering, with overseas innovation drug financing showing clear signs of revival in 2024, while domestic financing recovery is slower [25][26] - Leading CXO companies, such as WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics, reported strong new/backlog order growth in H1 2024, with overseas revenue remaining robust [27][28] - The CXO industry is expected to benefit from reduced valuation pressure as the likelihood of the Biosecurity Act passing decreases and the US enters a rate-cutting cycle [9][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The report analyzes how new energy vehicle companies can cross the breakeven point, focusing on the financial characteristics of companies like Li Auto and Seres during their transition to profitability [2][42] - Key factors for achieving profitability include stable expense management, product structure improvement, and the realization of scale effects through increased sales volume [42] Summary by Sections Section 1: Crossing the Breakeven Point - Li Auto and Seres have successfully crossed the breakeven point by increasing sales volume and improving operating profit [8] - Li Auto's sales in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 were 46,000 and 53,000 units respectively, with revenues of 17.65 billion and 18.787 billion yuan, achieving operating profits of -134 million and 405 million yuan [8] - Seres' sales in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 were 104,000 and 83,000 units, with revenues of 19.16 billion and 26.56 billion yuan, achieving operating profits of -613 million and 313 million yuan [8] Section 2: Indicators for Future Profitability - Key indicators for assessing whether a new energy vehicle company can achieve profitability include gross profit margin, average selling price (ASP), and depreciation [27] - Scale effects, ASP, and depreciation are critical factors influencing gross profit margins [27] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that have already achieved profitability and are experiencing sustained sales growth, such as Li Auto and Xpeng Motors, while also monitoring Seres [42] - Li Auto is expected to benefit from cost reductions and scale effects, with gross margins projected to return to around 20% [42] - Xpeng Motors is anticipated to enter a new product cycle, with expectations of achieving profitability by 2025 [42] - Seres is projected to achieve significant sales growth, with expected revenues of 150.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.5 billion yuan in 2024 [42]

请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 国联证券汽车研究团队 2024年9月 证券研究报告 报告评级：强于大市丨维持 新势力如何跨越盈亏平衡点？ | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------|------------------------------------| | | | | | | 第一部分 | 从理想和赛力斯看如何跨越盈亏平衡？ | | | | | | 目 | 第二部分 | 如何判断尚未盈利车企何时盈亏平衡？ | | | 第三部分 | 投资建议 | | 录 | 第四部分 | 风险提示 | 研究框架图 ➢ 盈亏平衡条件下：归母净利润/GAAP净利润=0，营业利润接近0，重点分析毛利和费用的关系： 收入-成本 = 收入*毛利率 = 毛利 VS 研发费用+SG&A = 期间费用 收入 价格 销量 重点分析： 产品销量与销量结构 毛利 高ASP车型毛利率更高 规模效应提升带动毛利率改善 分时间维度来看： （1）一定时期内（如3-4个季度内）费用基本稳定，研发和销售人员、产能、销售门店基本稳定 （2）长期来看，不同发展阶段费用会存在较大变化，重点关注新产能、新技术、新市场变化 分企业生 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|计算机 智慧口岸建设或将全面实施，指导意见 明确 2025 年目标 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月22日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 口岸是国家对外开放的门户，出入境货物和人流数量增长为其发展带来机遇和挑战。新一代 信息技术支撑的智慧口岸建设可以提升通关效率，促进外贸发展。2024 年 9 月，海关总署等 九部门印发《关于智慧口岸建设的指导意见》，制订 2025 年发展目标，加快口岸数字化转型 和智能化升级，为相关硬件设备、软件系统提供商带来行业发展机遇。 |分析师及联系人 黄楷 SAC：S0590522090001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 13 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月22日 计算机 智慧口岸建设或将全面实施，指导意见明确 2025 年目标 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -40% -23% -7% 10% 2023/9 2024/1 2024/5 2024/9 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《计算机：OpenAI 发布 o1 模型， ...