Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent policy announcements from the State Council, including interest rate cuts and support for the real estate market, are expected to boost the home improvement demand and restore valuations in the home furnishing sector [3][10] - The average dividend yield of key home furnishing companies exceeds 5%, with an average payout ratio over 50%, indicating strong shareholder returns [3][10] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend home furnishing leaders due to favorable policy changes [3][10] Summary by Sections Policy Support - On September 24, 2024, the People's Bank of China announced a series of supportive policies, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 20 basis point cut in the 7-day reverse repo rate [10] - The average reduction in existing mortgage rates is expected to be around 50 basis points, benefiting approximately 50 million households [10] - The unified down payment ratio for first and second homes has been set at 15%, which is anticipated to stimulate housing demand [10] Demand Stimulation - The reduction in existing mortgage rates is projected to decrease annual interest expenses for households by approximately 150 billion yuan, enhancing consumer spending [10] - Various provinces have introduced "old-for-new" subsidy policies with incentives ranging from 15% to 20%, further promoting home furnishing consumption [10] Investment Opportunities - Traditional home furnishing leaders are showing resilience with an average revenue decline of only 2.62% year-on-year in H1 2024, despite the challenging environment [10] - Key companies in the sector are trading at a low PE ratio of around 10x, with significant dividend yields, making them attractive investment options [10] - Recommended companies include: - Custom home furnishing: Sophia, known for its strong integration and traditional leadership [10] - Soft home furnishing: Gujia Home, Mousse Co., and Minhua Holdings, focusing on full-category integration [10] - Smart home furnishing: Reerte and Arrow Home, which cater to the renovation market with low penetration rates [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading manufacturer in the field of safety monitoring, specializing in precision sensors and smart data acquisition devices. It has extensive project experience and is a primary supplier for major projects such as the South-to-North Water Diversion and the Three Gorges Dam. The company is expected to benefit from the peak investment cycle in water conservancy, hydropower, pumped storage, and nuclear power projects [3][7]. - The company has a solid order backlog, with operating cash flow remaining strong and consistent dividend payments, indicating both value and growth attributes [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 1998, focuses on the research, production, and sales of smart monitoring terminals, including precision sensors and smart data acquisition devices. It operates a direct sales model targeting state-owned enterprises and research institutions in various sectors [16][17]. Market Position - The company holds a market share of 6% in the safety monitoring sector, positioning it as a leading player in the industry. The overall instrument and meter industry in China achieved a revenue of 10,112 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 8.7% from 2019 to 2023 [23][24]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3.3 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.8% from 2019 to 2023. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 726.6 million yuan, up 20% year-on-year [17][21]. Growth Drivers - The water conservancy sector is experiencing a historical high in investment, driven by national policies and the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in government bonds. The energy sector, particularly pumped storage and nuclear power, is also seeing accelerated project approvals and construction [25][29]. - The company’s order backlog reached 360 million yuan at the beginning of 2024, primarily from pumped storage and water diversion projects [7][10]. Profitability and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 361 million yuan, 438 million yuan, and 527 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, with a CAGR of 17.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 78.24 million yuan, 94.95 million yuan, and 114.59 million yuan for the same period, with a CAGR of 16.4% [10][11].

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The current labor negotiations between the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) have not progressed, with the existing six-year contract expiring on September 30, 2024. If a new agreement is not reached, a nationwide strike by dockworkers represented by ILA is set to begin on October 1 [10][11] - A potential strike could lead to significant disruptions in the supply chain, including container backlogs and port congestion. Estimates suggest that a one-week strike could result in container backlogs that would take until mid-November to clear, while a two-week strike could delay normal operations until 2025 [10] - The strike may also impact the return of empty containers to the U.S., potentially causing shortages in Europe and the Far East, thereby reducing the efficiency of the global shipping system [10] - Shipping companies are likely to increase surcharges in response to the strike threat, which could lead to higher spot rates. For instance, Maersk announced a surcharge of $3,000 per 40-foot container for shipments to and from East Coast and Gulf ports [10][11] - The report suggests that the shipping industry may present investment opportunities in the short to medium term due to potential supply-demand imbalances caused by unexpected disruptions [11] Summary by Sections Labor Negotiations - Ongoing negotiations between USMX and ILA have not resulted in a new contract, with the current contract expiring soon [10] Supply Chain Impact - A strike could lead to container backlogs and operational delays, affecting the supply chain significantly [10] Shipping Rates - Increased surcharges from shipping companies may lead to higher spot rates, benefiting long-term contract negotiations for shipping lines [10][11] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in the shipping industry due to supply-demand shifts caused by labor disruptions [11]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the BeiJiao 50 index is experiencing a bottoming rebound, with potential for valuation and liquidity recovery, suggesting a focus on undervalued high-performing stocks such as Wantong Hydraulic [2][5] - The report recommends attention to high dividend yielding stocks, technology and pharmaceutical sectors with high financing needs, overseas industry chain stocks, and stocks with expected mergers and acquisitions [2][8] Market Performance - The BeiJiao 50 index has seen a significant decline of 43% year-to-date, marking the largest drop among broad market indices in 2024, with a recent closing below 600 points, indicating a historical low [5] - On September 24, 2024, the BeiJiao 50 index rose by 3.23% with a daily trading volume of 3.419 billion [5] Economic Support Measures - The People's Bank of China has lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the financial market, with further reductions anticipated [6] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 50 basis points is expected to enhance global liquidity, potentially increasing the appeal of emerging market assets, including those in China [6] Mergers and Acquisitions Outlook - The upcoming release of the "Six Merger Guidelines" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission is expected to stimulate market activity in mergers and acquisitions, particularly in cross-industry mergers and acquisitions [7] - The report notes that there have been nearly 50 major restructuring cases disclosed in the market since May 2024, with positive market reactions [7] Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on undervalued high-performing stocks, high dividend yielding stocks, technology and pharmaceutical sectors, overseas industry chain stocks, and stocks with anticipated mergers and acquisitions [8]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The current labor negotiations between the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) have not progressed, with the existing six-year contract expiring on September 30, 2024. If a new agreement is not reached, a nationwide strike by dockworkers represented by the ILA is set to begin on October 1, 2024 [3][10]. - A potential strike could lead to significant disruptions in the supply chain, including container backlogs and port congestion. Estimates suggest that a one-week strike could result in container backlogs that would take until mid-November to clear, while a two-week strike could delay normal operations until 2025 [10]. - The strike may also impact the return of empty containers, potentially causing shortages in Europe and the Far East, which would further disrupt global shipping efficiency. For instance, it is estimated that the East Coast of the U.S. could see a daily inability to load approximately 20,000 TEUs of empty containers in October [10]. - Shipping companies are likely to increase surcharges in response to the strike threat, which could lead to a rise in spot freight rates. For example, Maersk announced a surcharge of $3,000 per 40-foot container for shipments to and from East Coast and Gulf ports [10]. - The potential for rising spot rates may benefit shipping companies in long-term contract negotiations, allowing them to secure higher prices and enhance their earnings for 2025 [11]. Summary by Sections Labor Negotiations - Ongoing negotiations between USMX and ILA have not resulted in a new contract, with the current contract expiring soon [10]. Supply Chain Impact - A strike could lead to container backlogs and operational delays, significantly affecting supply chains [10]. - Estimates indicate that a one-week strike could delay operations until mid-November, while a two-week strike could extend delays into 2025 [10]. Freight Rates - Shipping companies are expected to raise surcharges, which may lead to increased spot freight rates [10]. - Higher spot rates could improve the negotiating position of shipping companies for long-term contracts, potentially increasing their 2025 earnings [11].

Group 1 - The report highlights the introduction of two new monetary policy tools by the People's Bank of China to support the stable development of the stock market, which is expected to accelerate the high-quality development of the capital market [5][10][6] - The first tool is the creation of a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies, allowing them to use their bonds and stocks as collateral to obtain high liquidity assets from the central bank [7][8] - The second tool is a special relending program aimed at guiding banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders to support stock repurchases and increases in shareholding [10][9] Group 2 - The swap facility enhances the liquidity of non-bank financial institutions by allowing them to efficiently access funds, thereby alleviating funding pressures and improving liquidity management [8] - The introduction of these innovative monetary policy tools demonstrates the central bank's flexibility and commitment to supporting the capital market, contrasting with traditional methods of liquidity support [8][10] - The special relending program reflects a counter-cyclical adjustment feature, providing targeted support to specific sectors, which has become a major channel for the central bank to create money [9][10] Group 3 - The report indicates that the initial scale of the swap facility operation is set at 500 billion yuan, with potential for further phases if the initial phase is successful [7][8] - The special relending program has an initial quota of 300 billion yuan, with a relending rate of 1.75%, aimed at various types of enterprises including state-owned, private, and mixed-ownership [10][9] - Overall, the report suggests that these policy announcements are a follow-up to the Politburo meeting on July 30, indicating a proactive approach to enhancing the capital market's development [10][5]

Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced two new monetary policy tools to support the stability of the stock market[5] - The first tool is a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies, allowing them to exchange their assets for high liquidity assets like government bonds[7] - The initial scale of the swap facility is set at CNY 500 billion, with potential for additional phases if successful[8] Financial Support - The second tool is a special relending program aimed at guiding banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders for stock repurchases and increases[10] - The special relending program has an initial quota of CNY 300 billion, with a relending rate of 1.75%[10] - This program is designed to support companies with strong repurchase intentions, particularly in a market where stock prices are undervalued[10] Market Impact - These measures are expected to enhance liquidity for non-bank financial institutions, improving their ability to manage funds and reduce financing costs[8] - The introduction of these tools reflects the PBOC's commitment to innovative monetary policy and its flexibility in macroeconomic management[8] - Overall, the policies are anticipated to accelerate the high-quality development of the capital market and provide better opportunities for securities firms[10] Risks - Potential risks include the continuity of policies not meeting expectations, global geopolitical risks, and market volatility[11]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|电力设备 大储新兴市场需求高增，出口龙头充分 受益 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月24日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 通过复盘各传统大储市场需求起量的时间节点，我们认为，对于欧美等具备较高天然气发电 比例的电力系统中，20%的风光发电量渗透率可视为储能需求起量的关键临界点；而对于我国 和印度等缺乏天然气等灵活性资源的电力系统而言，储能需求快速起量的临界点或将更早到 来。当前印度用电量及峰值负荷持续增长带来光储需求高增的机遇；欧盟国家整体风光渗透 率已达到 27%，进一步强化了储能的调节需求；中东国家战略推动新能源转型，类微网项目带 来高比例配储需求。全球大储新兴市场逐渐涌现，行业需求有望维持高速增长。 |分析师及联系人 贺朝晖 梁丰铄 SAC：S0590521100002 SAC：S0590523040002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 18 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月24日 电力设备 大储新兴市场需求高增，出口龙头充分受益 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相 ...

证券研究报告 政策研究|点评报告 增量支持政策发力 ——9 月 24 日国务院新闻发布会点评 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月24日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 国务院新闻办公室 9 月 24 日上午举行新闻发布会，央行行长潘功胜、国家金融监管总局局长 李云泽、证监会主席吴清介绍金融支持经济高质量发展有关情况，并答记者问。整体上看，发 布会的相关政策符合我们的预期。这是金融相关部委对 7 月 30 日政治局会议提出的"及早储 备并适时推出一批增量政策举措"的进一步落实，但整体上好于市场主流的预期，预计未来还 会有些增量的政策逐步出台、落实，预计会对经济、股市、房地产等带来积极的影响。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590521070001 赵雪芹 杜秦川 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 政策研究|点评报告 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月24日 增量支持政策发力 ——9 月 24 日国务院新闻发布会点评 事件 相关报告 1、《政策或将持续加力——7 月中共中央政 治局会议点评》2024.08.07 2、《以进一步全面深化改革推进中国式现代 化 ： ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|银行 金融多举措发力支持高质量发展 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月24日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 9 月 24 日，国务院新闻办公室召开新闻发布会，宣布拟：1）降准 50bp；2）下调存 量按揭贷款利率 50bp 左右；3）降息，7 天期逆回购利率从 1.7%下调至 1.5%；4）创设新的货 币政策工具，支持股票市场稳定发展。 |分析师及联系人 刘雨辰 SAC：S0590522100001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 行业研究|行业点评研究 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------- ...