行业研究/煤炭 证券研究报告 行业周报 5 月原煤产量恢复仍不理想,静待旺季需 求抬升 投资要点: 5 月原煤产量继续恢复,经济延续回升向好态势。(1)产量:5 月全国原煤产量 3.84 亿吨,同/环比-0.8%/+3.3%;1-5 月累计产量 18.58 亿吨,同比-3%(1-4 月 为-3.5%)。其中,晋蒙陕疆 1-5 月累计产量分别为 4.74/5.25/3.09/1.96 亿吨,同比 -15%/+2.7%/+1.4%/+6.6%,合计占全国产量比重为 80.9%,同比-0.5pct。(2)需 求 : 5 月 火 电 / 生 铁 / 水 泥 产 量 同 比 -4.3%/-1.2%/-8.2% ; 1-5 月 累 计 同 比 +3.6%/-3.7%/-9.8%(1-4 月为+5.5%/-4.3%/-10.3%)。(3)国家统计局:5 月规上 工业增加值同比+5.6%,环比+0.3%,工业生产继续保持较好增长态势;1-5 月累 计同比+6.2%,增速较 1-4 月小幅回落 0.1pct。我们认为,5 月经济延续回升向 好态势,除火电因季节性因素及水电出力增加导致需求有所回落外,非电需求 整体延续复苏态势。 ...

行业研究/房地产 证券研究报告 行业周报 第 25 周新房成交同比增速回升,供销比回落 投资要点: 上周1大中城市新房成交情况: 2024 年第 25 周 30 大中城市新房成交面积为 223 万平方米,环比前一周 40%,同比 2023 年-19%。其中一线城市销售面积 60 万平方米,环比前一 周 47.7%,同比 2023 年-10%。二线城市销售面积 115 万平方米,环比前 一周 41%,同比 2023 年-27%。三线城市销售面积 48 万平方米,环比前一 周 30.6%,同比 2023 年-7%。 2024 年 6 月 1 日-20 日 30 城累计成交面积 527 万平方米,环比 2024 年 5 月同期 16%,同比-29%。一线城市累计成交面积 137 万平方米,环比 2024 年 5 月同期 19%,同比-27%。二线城市累计成交面积 272 万平方米,环比 2024 年 5 月同期 16%,同比-32%。三线城市累计成交面积 118 万平方米, 环比 2024 年 5 月同期 12.6%,同比-21%。 上周 18 城二手房成交量情况: 18 城 2024 年第 25 周二手房成交量为 ...

行业研究/食品/食品加工 证券研究报告 [ 行业跟踪报告 2024年06月20日 T a b 4 月全国乳制品产量同比-6.5% l e [Table_Summary] _ 投资要点： M a i  原奶价格走势。2024年5月31日-6月6日，国内主产区原奶价格为3.32元/kg， n 环比-0.6%，同比-13.5%；2024年4月恒天然原奶价格为0.33欧元/kg，环比-0.7%， I 同比-6.6%。 n f  恒天然奶粉价格环比上涨。2024 年 6 月 4 日，恒天然脱脂奶粉拍卖价为 2722 o 美元/吨，环比+3.5%，同比-1.2%；全脂奶粉拍卖价为3478美元/吨，环比+2.1%， ] 同比+9.6%。2024年4月全国乳制品产量为225.4万吨，同比-6.5%。  精饲料价格小幅波动，粗饲料价格环比持平。精饲料：2024年5月31日-6月6 日，玉米平均价为 2.56 元/kg，环比+0.4%，同比-12.0%；豆粕平均价为 3.74元 /kg，环比-0.5%，同比-13.4%。粗饲料：2024年4月，进口苜蓿草平均到岸价为 375.4美元/吨，环比+0.03%，同比-34.1%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Coinbase (COIN US) with an "Outperform" rating compared to the market [3][20]. Core Insights - Coinbase has established itself as a leading virtual asset platform, providing a range of services including trading, storage, staking, custody, and payment solutions, with a mission to enhance economic freedom for over 1 billion people [6][26]. - The company has seen significant growth in its custodial assets and revenue due to the approval of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs, with custodial assets increasing by 69% to $171 billion and custodial revenue rising by 64% to $32 million [17][26]. - Despite competitive pressures, Coinbase's trading volume surged to $312 billion in Q1 2024, reflecting a 101.3% quarter-over-quarter increase, while maintaining stable trading fees [17][18]. Company Overview - Coinbase was founded in 2012 and has undergone multiple funding rounds, raising over $530 million before its direct listing on NASDAQ in April 2021 [2][6]. - As of the end of 2023, Coinbase operates in over 100 countries with a workforce of 3,416 employees and a trading volume of $468 billion for the year [6][14]. Financial Performance - The report highlights that Coinbase's trading fees remained stable at 35 basis points in Q1 2024, despite concerns about increased competition [18]. - The company has adopted a disciplined spending approach, maintaining a total expenditure to total revenue ratio of 55% during the bullish market conditions of 2024 [29]. Market Position - Coinbase ranks fifth among centralized exchanges with a market share of 6.8%, while Binance leads with 49.7% [14]. - The approval of Ethereum ETFs is expected to further enhance Coinbase's revenue and market position [26]. Regulatory Compliance - Coinbase emphasizes regulatory compliance and has a robust KYC process, which is more stringent compared to competitors like Binance [30][32]. - The company actively engages in promoting clear regulations for the cryptocurrency industry and supports candidates who favor cryptocurrency legislation [31][32]. Management Team - The management team includes experienced professionals such as Brian Armstrong (CEO), Emilie Choi (COO), and Paul Grewal (Chief Legal Officer), all of whom have extensive backgrounds in technology and law [39][50]. Strategic Initiatives - Coinbase employs a resource allocation model of 70/20/10, focusing 70% on core business operations, 20% on strategic investments, and 10% on high-risk, high-reward projects [27]. - The company has made several strategic acquisitions to enhance its technological capabilities and expand its service offerings [19]. User Metrics - The number of verified users on Coinbase has grown from 32 million in 2019 to 114 million in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 37.2% [49]. - Monthly transacting users peaked in 2021 but have since declined, with 8 million users in Q1 2024, representing a 5% year-over-year decrease [49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to RMB 41.16, down from RMB 72.10 [5][32]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.129 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 118.2%, and a net profit of RMB 654 million, with a year-on-year growth of 174.3% [27][31]. - In Q1 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue to RMB 340 million, a year-on-year decrease of 46.6%, and a net profit of RMB 22 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 87.4% [13][31]. - The decline in profitability in Q1 2024 was attributed to a substantial decrease in downstream customer orders, leading to a gross profit margin drop to 14.94% [31][32]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 3.129 billion in 2023, with a net profit of RMB 654 million [27][31]. - The Q4 2023 revenue was RMB 804 million, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 7.8%, and a net profit of RMB 65 million, down 63.8% [13][31]. - For Q1 2024, revenue was RMB 340 million, with a net profit of RMB 22 million, marking significant declines both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [13][31]. Production Capacity and Market Position - The company currently operates 24 production lines and plans to add 180,000 units/year in capacity through a convertible bond investment project [14][28]. - The total capacity after expansions will reach 324,000 units/year, positioning the company to hold a 29.43% market share among leading quartz crucible manufacturers [14][28]. - The company has completed R&D for 32-inch semiconductor-grade quartz crucibles and has begun mass production of 28-inch variants [14][28]. Investment Outlook - The report estimates net profits for 2024-2026 to be RMB 478 million (-77%), RMB 661 million (-72%), and RMB 884 million, respectively [32]. - The company is recognized as a leading domestic manufacturer of quartz crucibles, with competitive advantages and ongoing improvements in production capacity and upstream cooperation [32].

行业研究/化工 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024 年 06 月 19 日 纯碱价格小幅回落,6 月以来库存呈上涨 趋势,光伏玻璃产量保持快速增长 投资要点: 纯碱市场价格小幅回落。根据百川资讯,2024.6.6-2024.6.13 国内纯碱市场价格 小幅上涨。截止到 6 月 13 日,轻质纯碱市场均价为 2080 元/吨,较前一周四下 跌 49 元/吨;重质纯碱市场均价为 2247 元/吨,较前一周四下跌 36 元/吨。纯碱 市场弱势进行。 行业周度开工率上升,市场供应相对充足。根据百川资讯,前期停车检修装置 均已逐步恢复正常运行,江苏实联纯碱装置重启逐步恢复正常;河南金山化工 孟州、舞阳 5 线装置恢复正常;江苏华昌纯碱装置 6 月 11 日降负运行,6 月 12-14 日停车检修。截止到 6 月 14 日,纯碱行业周度开工率为 89.07%,环比提升 7.6 个百分点。 6 月以来库存呈上涨趋势。根据百川资讯,2024 年 1-5 月,国内纯碱行业开工 率基本维持在 80%以上,2024 年 5 月纯碱行业开工率为 84.22%,环比提升 1.48 个百分点。根据百川资讯,截至 2024 年 6 月 14 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/食品 证券研究报告 行业周报 [Table_InvestInfo]24 年 5 月食品 CPI 同比-2.0% Huijing Yan hj.yan@htisec.com Bisheng Cheng bs.cheng@htisec.com Yuxuan Zhang yx.zhang@htisec.com [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 板块表现：6 月 11 日-6 月 14 日，大盘指数涨跌幅为-1.00%，食品饮料指数涨跌 幅为-2.89%，涨跌幅在 28 个子行业中排名第 26。表现前三板块为肉制品板块 （+0.50%）、乳品板块（+0.39%）、调味发酵品Ⅲ板块（+0.09%）。个股涨幅 前三为 ST 加加（+10.06%）、*ST 西发（+5.69%）、盐津铺子（+4.85%）。个股 跌幅前三为华统股份（-8.93%）、维维股份（-7.49%）、泸州老窖（-6.13%）。 个股公告：【巴比食品】公司拟通过集中竞价交易方式回购公司股票，董事会 通过议案。公司回购主要用于减少注册资本。公司预计回购金额为 1-2 亿元，回 购价格上限为 24.47 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/交通运输 证券研究报告 行业专题报告 [ Table_InvestInfo] 4 月快递月报： 行业业务量增速再超 20% [Table_Summary] 投资要点：  2024年4月快递业务量数据。快递行业：2024年4月，全国快递企业实现业务 量137.0亿件，同比增长22.7%。2024年1-4月，全国快递企业实现业务量508.1 亿件，同比增长24.5%。  四家上市快递公司：2024年4月，顺丰、韵达、圆通、申通分别实现快递业务 量/业务量同比增速为：10.27 亿件/+17.37%（同比变动不含丰网）、19.17 亿件 /+31.75%、21.50亿件/+23.78%、17.29亿件/+29.2%。2024年4月，通达系业务 量增速均高于行业水平，其中，韵达业务量增速超30%。  2024年4月快递公司市占率情况。2024年4月，顺丰、韵达、圆通、申通市占 率分别达到 7.5%、13.99%、15.69%和 12.62%。较 24Q1 相比，四家快递公司的 市占率变动分别为-0.47、+0.68、+0.69、+0.26个百分点。  2024年4月 ...

Equity – Asia Research Presentation：地产不良拐点将至——2024年银行业中期策略 Turning Point for Real Estate Imminent: 2024 Mid-Year Banking Strategy 林加力Jiali Lin jiali.lin@htisec.com 周琦Nicole Zhou nicole.q.zhou@htisec.com ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JA Solar (002459 CH) with a target price adjusted downwards from CNY 51.66 to CNY 19.60, reflecting a 62.1% decrease [3][9]. Core Insights - In 2023, JA Solar achieved operating revenue of CNY 81.56 billion, a year-on-year growth of 11.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 7.04 billion, up 27.2% year-on-year. However, Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 results showed significant declines in revenue and profitability, with Q1 2024 net profit at -CNY 483 million, a 119% year-on-year drop [6][9]. - The company reported a module shipment of 53.1 GW in 2023, a 39% increase year-on-year, with overseas shipments accounting for approximately 48%. The gross profit margin for the module business increased to 18.28% in 2023, driven by strong performance in the Americas [7][8]. - JA Solar's production capacity reached 95 GW by the end of 2023, with plans to exceed 100 GW by the end of 2024. New production facilities in both domestic and overseas markets are progressing as planned [8][9]. Financial Summary - The financial forecast for JA Solar indicates a significant decline in net profit for 2024, projected at CNY 3.246 billion (-73%), with further declines expected in 2025 and 2026. The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 20x for 2024 [9]. - The report outlines a detailed financial outlook, including total operating revenue projections of CNY 79.5 billion for 2024, with a gradual increase expected in subsequent years [5][9].