Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in domestic demand in 2025, particularly in consumption and infrastructure investment, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the capital and real estate markets [2][10] - It is expected that the fiscal deficit rate will rise to 3.5% in 2025, with the issuance of special bonds totaling 2 trillion yuan to support key financial institutions [10][11] - The projected GDP growth for 2025 is 4.8%, with retail sales expected to grow by 5.1% and fixed asset investment by 4.6% [11][12] Group 2: State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) Reform - The ongoing reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is expected to reshape market valuation structures, enhancing long-term investment value [2][19] - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as national security, infrastructure, and technological innovation, where SOEs are likely to see increased valuation [19][30] - SOEs in industries like telecommunications, transportation, and oil & gas are noted for their significant market share, superior performance, and attractive dividend yields [19][30] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - SOEs in the non-ferrous metals sector are crucial for ensuring resource security and driving high-quality development, with a focus on resource expansion and new material breakthroughs [28][33] - The report highlights the improved operational metrics of non-ferrous SOEs, including profitability and cash flow, driven by enhanced management practices and market conditions [30][33] - Key companies in this sector include Zijin Mining, China Aluminum, and Shandong Gold, which are expected to benefit from ongoing reforms and market dynamics [33] Group 4: Communication Sector - The communication sector is undergoing a transformation with SOEs playing a pivotal role in driving technological advancements and innovation, particularly in AI and high-speed products [4][39] - Companies such as China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom are highlighted as key players benefiting from the digital economy and infrastructure development [39][4] - The report suggests that the focus on "chain master" innovation will enhance the competitive edge of SOEs in the communication industry [4][39] Group 5: China-Africa Cooperation - The report discusses the potential for investment opportunities in emerging sectors like digital economy and energy cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly in Africa [3][21] - It emphasizes the importance of high-quality, sustainable development projects that focus on improving livelihoods in Africa [21][25] - The historical context of China-Africa cooperation is outlined, showcasing the evolution and future potential of this partnership [21][25]

Investment Rating - The steel industry maintains a "Recommended" rating [5] Core Viewpoints - Steel prices have shown a slight upward trend, supported by optimistic market sentiment and reduced inventory levels [2][86] - The demand for steel is expected to strengthen due to positive policy impacts and a shift from real estate to high-end manufacturing [4][35] - The overall steel market is anticipated to stabilize and recover, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments providing robust support [4][35] Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - The steel sector index increased by 0.14% from November 1 to November 15, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.55% [2][13] - The comprehensive steel index in China reached 101.52, up 10.27 points or 11.25% from the previous month [2][86] Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic crude steel production in October was 8,188 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.90% [3][23] - The apparent consumption of steel in October was 10,876 million tons, up 2.19% year-on-year [3][35] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces in October was 81.07%, reflecting a recovery in production capacity [3][23] Price and Profit Trends - The average price of rebar in October was 3,817 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton or 13.38% from the previous month [86][89] - The overall steel price index showed a significant increase, indicating strong market support and improved trading activity [86][89] Raw Material Analysis - The average price of iron ore in October was 103.82 USD/ton, up 10.04% month-on-month [65][66] - Domestic iron ore imports in September were 10,413 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.04% [65][66] Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The steel industry is expected to benefit from various policies aimed at enhancing industry concentration and improving supply-demand balance [4][35] - Investors are advised to focus on leading companies in the special steel sector and those benefiting from policy improvements in the general steel sector [4][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [4][9] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 4.99 billion, a YoY increase of 51.3%, exceeding expectations [2] - Core OTA business revenue was RMB 4.01 billion, up 21.6% YoY, in line with expectations [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 790 million, a YoY increase of 55.5% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 910 million, up 46.6% YoY [2] - Hotel take rate improvement drove revenue growth in the accommodation booking segment, with international room nights increasing by 130% YoY [2] - Transportation ticketing revenue reached a historical high of RMB 2.03 billion, driven by a 110% YoY increase in international air ticket volume [2] - Other revenue grew 23.7% YoY to RMB 610 million, supported by strong growth in hotel management and online vacation businesses [2] - The company's average monthly paying users reached 46.4 million, a 5% YoY increase, with ARPU rising to around RMB 70, up RMB 6 QoQ [3] - Non-GAAP net margin was 18%, with core OTA platform margin reaching 31%, a post-pandemic high [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 17.212 billion in 2024E to RMB 24.166 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 18.5% [6] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to increase from RMB 2.732 billion in 2024E to RMB 4.468 billion in 2026E [6] - Adjusted diluted EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 1.18 in 2024E to RMB 1.92 in 2026E [6] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 14.01X in 2024E to 8.57X in 2026E [6] Business Performance - Accommodation booking revenue grew 22.2% YoY to RMB 1.38 billion, outperforming ADR and overall hotel industry growth [2] - Vacation segment revenue reached RMB 980 million [2] - The company has 230 million annual paying users and 1.88 billion annual cumulative service users, up 3.4% and 19.9% YoY respectively [3] - Gross margin was 63% in Q3 2024, down 11.2 ppts YoY but only 1.2 ppts QoQ [3] - Sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased by 9.1 ppts YoY to 29% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with an adjusted PE of 17X/16X/13X for 2024-2026 [3][7] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 15.9 billion, a 16% YoY increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6.8 billion, a 47% YoY increase [2] - The strong summer travel demand drove high growth across all business segments, with accommodation booking revenue increasing by 22% YoY and 32% QoQ to RMB 6.8 billion [2] - Outbound travel business recovery surpassed market levels, reaching 120% of 2019 levels, with international OTA platform revenue growing 60% YoY, accounting for 9% of total revenue [2] - The company's gross margin improved to 82%, driven by the strong growth of hotel booking and international business segments, with Non-GAAP net profit margin reaching 38%, the highest in nearly a decade [3] Business Segments - Accommodation booking: Revenue of RMB 6.8 billion, up 22% YoY and 32% QoQ [2] - Transportation ticketing: Revenue of RMB 5.7 billion, up 5% YoY and 16% QoQ [2] - Travel vacation: Revenue of RMB 1.6 billion, up 17% YoY and 52% QoQ [2] - Corporate travel management: Revenue of RMB 700 million, up 11% YoY and 4% QoQ [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 52.4 billion in 2024, RMB 60.5 billion in 2025, and RMB 69.0 billion in 2026, with growth rates of 17.7%, 15.5%, and 14.0% respectively [5] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be RMB 19.2 billion in 2024, RMB 20.4 billion in 2025, and RMB 24.4 billion in 2026 [5] - Adjusted diluted EPS is forecasted to be RMB 28.04 in 2024, RMB 29.77 in 2025, and RMB 35.66 in 2026 [5] Profitability and Efficiency - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 82% from 2024 to 2026 [12] - Non-GAAP net profit margin is projected to increase from 32.99% in 2024 to 32.96% in 2026 [12] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 12.39% in 2024 to 12.57% in 2026, reflecting enhanced profitability and operational efficiency [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the non-ferrous metal industry, particularly focusing on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in this sector [5][7]. Core Insights - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) play a dominant role in China's non-ferrous metal industry, which is crucial for the high-quality development of the national economy and resource security [7][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of SOEs in ensuring resource security and enhancing domestic exploration and production of critical minerals [7][44]. - The ongoing state-owned enterprise reform is expected to improve the performance and valuation of these companies, with a focus on increasing dividends and enhancing investor returns [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Role of SOEs in the Non-Ferrous Metal Industry - SOEs are essential for maintaining national resource security and are tasked with leading the exploration and development of critical minerals [19][44]. - In the non-ferrous metal mining and smelting sectors, SOEs accounted for an average of 37% and 26% of total production, respectively, over the past three years [19][22]. 2. Achievements of State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The reform has led to significant improvements in operational metrics such as profit totals, asset-liability ratios, and cash flow indicators, outperforming private enterprises [7][40]. - SOEs are increasingly focusing on mergers and acquisitions to enhance their control over domestic non-ferrous metal resources [7][44]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading SOEs in the non-ferrous metal sector, including Zijin Mining, China Aluminum, Shandong Gold, and others, due to their expected growth and valuation expansion [5][11]. - The anticipated increase in dividends and improved market management practices are expected to drive the valuation of these SOEs upward [5][7]. 4. New Material Development and Industry Upgrades - SOEs are positioned as pioneers in the development of new materials, which is critical for the high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry [7][40]. - The report highlights the need for innovation in materials that meet national strategic demands and can overcome external blockades [7][40]. 5. Strategic Actions for Resource Security - The report outlines a new round of exploration initiatives led by SOEs to enhance the domestic supply of critical minerals and reduce reliance on imports [58][62]. - SOEs are also encouraged to pursue overseas acquisitions to secure high-quality mineral resources, thereby strengthening the domestic supply chain [64][68].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is intensifying, with a focus on optimizing operational indicators, enhancing market value management, and increasing support from the capital market for SOEs [4][10][21] - As of November 15, 2024, SOEs accounted for 26.6% of the total number of A-share listed companies and 51.8% of the total market capitalization, indicating a significant concentration of large-cap stocks [4][46] - The report highlights that SOEs have a higher profitability compared to private enterprises, with SOEs' revenue growth rates generally surpassing those of the overall industrial sector from 2017 to 2023, except in 2021 [53][61] Group 2 - The report identifies that SOEs are prominent in key industries, with a majority of sectors showing that SOEs' net profit growth rates outperformed the industry average since 2019, particularly in coal and food and beverage sectors [4][10][27] - The valuation levels of SOEs are generally lower compared to private enterprises, with SOEs exhibiting higher dividend yields across most industries [4][10][27] - The investment outlook for SOEs is positive, with expected structural investment opportunities in sectors such as telecommunications, transportation, and energy, driven by ongoing reforms and national strategic directions [4][10][39]

Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected to be around 4.8%, with retail sales expected to grow by 5.1% and fixed asset investment by 4.6%[17] - In an optimistic scenario, GDP growth could reach 5.0%, driven by a recovery in real estate and infrastructure investments, while a pessimistic scenario could see growth drop to 4.4% due to intensified trade tensions[26] Policy Measures - Fiscal policy is expected to see a deficit rate increase to 3.5%, with the issuance of special bonds totaling 2 trillion yuan and an additional 4.5 trillion yuan in special debt quotas[7] - Monetary policy will likely involve a significant reduction in reserve requirements by 100-150 basis points and net purchases of government bonds exceeding 2 trillion yuan[7] Consumption and Investment - Consumer spending is anticipated to recover, supported by policies aimed at boosting the capital and real estate markets, with a notable increase in wealth effects[18] - Infrastructure investment remains a key support for growth, with local government debt relief expected to facilitate project financing and construction[18] Industrial Production - Industrial production is projected to grow by 5.3% in 2025, driven by effective demand recovery and the acceleration of new productive forces[30] - Manufacturing investment is expected to increase by 9%, with a focus on high-tech and green transformation initiatives[43] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include domestic economic downturns, policy implementation delays, and external factors such as trade friction and geopolitical tensions[10] - The overall investment environment remains favorable, but credit expansion faces demand constraints, particularly in the real estate sector[10]

中国银河证券|CGS 提质重构，聚焦"链主"创新破局 央国企引领专题（通信篇） 通信首席分析师：赵良毕 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 行业深度报告 · 通信行业 提质重构,聚焦"链主"创新破局 -央国企引领专题(通信篇) 核心观点 ● 国央企改革深化,新旧动能转换赋能新质生产力,高质量发展有望超预期。 国资国企是我国新型基础设施建设的重要主体,在我国数字经济发展中发挥着 "底座"作用。二十届三中全会提出推动国有资本和国有企业做强做优做大, 向前瞻性战略性新兴产业集中。立足当下,我国科技发展的大时代已然而至, 国央企推动我国经济新旧动能转换有望超预期。展望未来,国央企盈利能力逐 步提升实现更高质量发展,高股息高分红意愿有望进一步加强,科技产业链发 挥"链长"作用赋能新质生产力,高质量发展有望推动数字经济发展超预期。 ● 与市场不同观点在于,我们认为大变局推动国央企改革发展进程中,被价值低 估的国有资产估值有望企稳回升,随着业绩的稳步增长投资价值凸现,主要为: 央企运营商:"链主"引领,新兴业务赋能打造 AI 科技新生态。作为国家 ...

Group 1: Economic Impact of Policies - The new round of fiscal debt replacement is expected to reduce local government debt repayment by CNY 1.74 trillion annually, with an estimated CNY 1 trillion potentially converted into actual fiscal spending, directly boosting GDP growth by approximately 0.7 percentage points[15] - The acquisition of idle land is projected to require around CNY 1.4 trillion, significantly improving cash flow for local governments and real estate companies, while also controlling land supply and stabilizing housing prices[29] - The stockpiling of unsold residential properties is estimated to require CNY 1.1 trillion, which could lead to a sales growth rate of over 10% in the real estate market if fully implemented next year[32] Group 2: Urbanization and Investment - The new urbanization plan aims to increase the urbanization rate to nearly 70% within five years, necessitating an annual investment of CNY 1.35 trillion, which could drive fixed asset investment growth by 2.6%[57] - Urbanization is expected to generate an additional CNY 750 billion in consumer demand annually, contributing to a 1.54% increase in total retail sales[61] - The urban infrastructure renovation is projected to require CNY 4 trillion over five years, with an annual investment of CNY 800 billion, further boosting fixed asset investment and GDP growth[61] Group 3: Consumer Spending and Subsidies - The "old-for-new" appliance replacement policy is anticipated to generate CNY 1 trillion in consumer spending, with a multiplier effect of approximately 5.25[63] - The government’s student subsidy policy is expected to add CNY 109 billion in incremental spending, likely translating into increased consumption due to the high marginal propensity to consume among students[62] - The anticipated birth subsidies could amount to CNY 230 billion, potentially increasing consumer spending by CNY 150 billion due to a 65% consumption conversion rate[9]

Core Insights - The average market capitalization of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is higher than that of non-state-owned enterprises, with central enterprises having the highest average market capitalization of 7.264 billion [2][57] - In the first three quarters of 2024, local state-owned enterprises reported the highest average revenue of 700 million, while their average net profit was also the highest at 55 million [2][57] - The overall performance of SOEs on the BSE has outperformed the BeiZheng 50 index over the past year, with a cumulative excess return of approximately 35% as of November 10, 2024 [3][70] Company Performance - Among the 24 SOEs on the BSE, 22 reported positive net profits for 2023, with 12 companies showing year-on-year growth in net profit, including Silane Technology with over 60% growth [62] - The average net profit of central enterprises was only 1.6 million, significantly lower than that of local state-owned enterprises, which was 5.5 million [57][58] - Companies like Suzhou Axis and Huayuan Co. have shown strong performance, with Suzhou Axis achieving a net profit growth of 35.04% in the third quarter of 2024 [62][63] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with a high historical dividend payout ratio and clear shareholder return plans, such as Zhongfangbiao and Tianfangbiao [4] - Consider companies that are expanding their main product applications or entering new markets, like Jilin Carbon Valley and Suzhou Axis [4] - Pay attention to companies with strong operational performance and good debt repayment capabilities, such as Suzhou Axis and Minshida [4]