[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 电力设备 2024 年 07 月 30 日 电力设备 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 彭广春 资格编号：S0120522070001 邮箱：penggc＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 电力设备 沪深300 -44% -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《光伏全面进入 N 型时代，BC 电 池增益效果明显》，2024.7.17 2.《提高电网安全高质量发展，南方 电 网 推 动 千 亿 级 设 备 更 新 》， 2024.7.17 3.《光伏多企业布局沙特，出海迈上 新高地》，2024.7.17 4.《阳光电源：全球逆变器龙头企业， 多维度布局新能源业务》，2024.5.28 5.《九洲集团（300040.SZ）： 业绩 短期承压，电网设备+并网规模增量 可期》，2024.5.26 24H1 我国光伏行业发展如何？ [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件：2024 年 7 月 25 日，由中国光伏行业协会主办、浙江正泰新能源开发 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 有色金属 2024 年 08 月 01 日 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 有色金属 沪深300 -31% -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 数据来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《黄金：经济定方向，货币定空间， 利率定弹性》，2024.7.5 黄金：降息预期提升，金价展望 2600 美元 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件。8 月 1 日 FOMC 会议宣布基准利率维持在 5.25%-5.50%区间不变。 美联储利率决议声明基本符合市场预期。利率方面，本次 FOMC 会议连续第八次 将基准利率维持在 5.25%-5.50%区间不变，符合市场预期；表述方面，美联储认 为在过去几个月中，针对 2%的通胀目标取得了新的进展，通胀已有缓和，但仍"或 多或少"处 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has successfully completed preliminary testing of its 3C6000 chip, which is expected to accelerate domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry [5] - The 3C6000 chip is designed to meet mainstream server CPU performance levels and is anticipated to contribute positively to the company's transformation [5] - The company is also making progress in desktop CPUs and GPUs, aiming to create a "trinity" solution that enhances its market competitiveness [5][6] - The report forecasts significant revenue growth for the company, with projected revenues of 760 million, 1.12 billion, and 1.45 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company has shown a 12.48% absolute increase and a 14.18% relative increase over the past month compared to the CSI 300 index [4] Financial Data and Forecast - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is reported at 506 million yuan, with projections of 763 million yuan for 2024, 1.12 billion yuan for 2025, and 1.45 billion yuan for 2026 [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 36.1% in 2023 to 48.1% by 2026 [9] - The net profit is projected to turn positive by 2026, with estimates of -329 million yuan for 2023, -48 million yuan for 2024, 58 million yuan for 2025, and 139 million yuan for 2026 [9] Product Development - The 3C6000 chip integrates 16 LA664 processor cores and supports multi-threading, positioning it competitively in the server market [5] - The company is also advancing its desktop CPU, the 3A6000, which matches the performance of Intel's 10th generation Core processors [5] - The GPU segment is set to launch the 2K3000, which will utilize the LG200 architecture, enhancing capabilities in graphics and AI acceleration [5] Strategic Focus - The company is shifting its focus from product development to market sales, aiming to increase product recognition and competitiveness [6] - It is pursuing both policy-driven and open market strategies to diversify its revenue sources [6]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 平煤股份(601666.SH) 2024 年 07 月 31 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：煤炭/煤炭开采 当前价格(元)：9.85 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 薛磊 资格编号：S0120524020001 邮箱：xuelei＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 平煤股份 沪深300 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅(%) -12.05 -27.14 -18.92 相对涨幅(%) -9.39 -20.39 -11.90 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《平煤股份：业绩同比下滑，高股息 凸显投资价值》，2024.4.26 2.《平煤股份点评：成本管控优异，业 绩符合预期》，2024.3.20 3.《平煤股份事件点评：分红承诺提升， 投资价值凸显》，2023.11.29 4.《平煤股份（ ...

Group 1: Overview of Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) - The EU has restarted the Excessive Deficit Procedure for Belgium, France, Italy, Malta, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland due to their deficit rates exceeding 4% of GDP in 2023[11] - France's deficit rate reached 5.5% in 2023, an increase of 0.7% from 2022, with projections of slight decreases to 5.3% and 5.0% in 2024 and 2025 respectively[11] - Non-compliance with corrective measures may result in penalties of 0.1% of GDP annually, equating to approximately €2.5 billion for France[11] Group 2: Historical Context and Mechanism - The EDP was established under the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, setting a deficit limit of 3% of GDP and a debt limit of 60% of GDP[3] - The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) of 1997 further detailed these limits and introduced preventive and corrective measures to ensure compliance[3] - The EDP was temporarily suspended in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with plans to resume in 2024 to restore fiscal discipline[3][27] Group 3: Economic Implications - Short-term impacts of EDP may include reduced public spending or increased taxes, potentially leading to economic slowdowns or recessions[3] - Long-term goals of EDP include maintaining fiscal discipline and reducing public debt, contributing to sustainable fiscal health and lower default risks[3] - The EDP's effectiveness has been challenged by uneven economic development among EU member states, with wealthier nations able to stimulate growth through increased spending[4]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company released a strong 24H1 earnings preview, with revenue expected to grow 114 3%-126 9% YoY to 3 4-3 6 billion yuan, and net profit expected to grow 286%-306% YoY to 390-410 million yuan [4] - The high revenue growth is driven by strong performance of the Han Shu brand on Douyin, with GMV increasing 136% YoY during the 618 shopping festival, and the second-tier brands also showing high growth [4] - The company is focusing on multiple channels, product series, and sub-brands, with a strategic shift back to offline channels and a diversified product matrix, including the popular Red Waist and White Waist series [5] - The company has a clear multi-brand strategy, aiming to build two super skincare brands, two strong maternal and infant brands, and two super personal care brands, expanding its influence across multiple categories and price segments [5] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 24H1 is expected to be 3 4-3 6 billion yuan, with net profit of 390-410 million yuan, representing a net profit margin of 10 8%-12 1% [4] - Revenue for 2024E is forecasted to be 7 184 billion yuan, with net profit of 900 million yuan, and EPS of 2 26 yuan [5] - Revenue for 2025E is forecasted to be 9 109 billion yuan, with net profit of 1 166 billion yuan, and EPS of 2 93 yuan [5] - Revenue for 2026E is forecasted to be 10 832 billion yuan, with net profit of 1 414 billion yuan, and EPS of 3 55 yuan [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 72 05% in 2023A to 74 25% in 2026E, with net profit margin increasing from 11 00% to 13 05% over the same period [9] Market Performance - The stock has shown significant volatility, with a 51% decline in July 2023 compared to the Hang Seng Index, and a 9 21% drop in the past month [2] - The stock's relative performance has been weaker than the market, with a 5 29% underperformance in the past month and a 9 27% underperformance over the past three months [2] Strategic Focus - The company is leveraging its strong presence on Douyin, with the Han Shu brand achieving a GMV of 3 593 billion yuan in 24H1, a 262 41% YoY increase, and a dominant position in the beauty and skincare categories [4] - The company is expanding its product portfolio with the Red Waist and White Waist series, which have become core products, and is targeting the mid-to-low-end market with a focus on cost-effectiveness [5] - The company is also focusing on offline channels, with plans to re-enter the CS channel and leverage its existing offline resources, which accounted for 45 7% of revenue in 2019 [5] Valuation - The stock is trading at a forward P/E of 15 2X for 2024E, 11 8X for 2025E, and 9 7X for 2026E, with a dividend yield of 4 4% for 2024E, 5 8% for 2025E, and 7 3% for 2026E [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) [1]. Core Insights - Lao Pu Gold is a leading brand in traditional gold jewelry, focusing on high-end positioning and steady expansion. The company achieved a revenue of 3.18 billion yuan and a net profit of 416 million yuan in 2023, reflecting significant year-on-year growth of 145.7% and 340.4% respectively [2][3][14]. - The market for traditional gold jewelry in China has reached 518 billion yuan, with traditional gold accounting for 31% of the gold market. The sector is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% to reach 421.4 billion yuan by 2028 [2][30][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Brand in Traditional Gold - Lao Pu Gold was established in 2009 and has opened 33 self-operated stores in high-end urban areas by June 2024. The company has also entered e-commerce platforms like Tmall and JD [2][14]. - The company has a unique product offering, being the first to introduce gold inlaid with diamonds, and has contributed to the establishment of industry standards for traditional gold jewelry [2][14]. 2. Cultural Trends and Craft Innovation - The consumption of gold jewelry in China has been driven by cultural trends and investment demand, with traditional gold jewelry gaining popularity among consumers [2][30]. - The market for traditional gold jewelry is expected to grow significantly, with a current market size of 157.3 billion yuan, projected to increase to 421.4 billion yuan by 2028 [30][32]. 3. High-End Brand Development - Lao Pu Gold has positioned itself as a high-end brand, with 65% of its products priced between 10,000 to 50,000 yuan. The average selling price for gold products is 1,043 yuan per gram, with a gross margin of 45.8% [3][20]. - The company has a strong customer loyalty program, with 93,100 loyal members contributing 26.7% of total revenue [3][20]. 4. Direct Sales Model and Store Expansion - The company operates a fully direct sales model, managing brand image and service quality effectively. In 2023, online sales reached 360 million yuan, while offline sales totaled 2.82 billion yuan [3][22]. - Lao Pu Gold plans to open 8 new stores in mainland China and 5 overseas in the next two years to enhance brand internationalization and market penetration [3][28]. 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.44 billion, 6.85 billion, and 8.22 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits of 780 million, 970 million, and 1.14 billion yuan respectively [3][24]. - The report highlights the company's low debt and leverage, indicating a robust return on equity (ROE) of 34.9% in 2023, which is significantly higher than its peers [3][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in H1 2024, with projected revenue between 3.4 billion to 3.6 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 114.3% to 126.9%, and net profit between 390 million to 410 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 286% to 306% [6][7] - The strong growth is driven by the Han Shu brand, which has seen substantial growth in various channels, particularly on Douyin, where it achieved a GMV of 3.593 billion in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 262.41% [6] - The company is focusing on multi-channel strategies and product diversification, with a clear strategy to enhance its brand presence across different platforms and product lines [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 7.184 billion in 2024, with a net profit of 900 million, and expects continued growth in subsequent years, reaching 10.832 billion in revenue and 1.414 billion in net profit by 2026 [9] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 72.05% in 2023 to 74.25% in 2026, indicating strong profitability [9] Market Position - The company has established a strong market presence with its Han Shu brand leading in various e-commerce platforms, including Douyin, Tmall, and JD, with significant year-on-year growth rates [6][7] - The strategic focus on multi-brand development aims to capture a wider audience across different market segments, enhancing overall brand equity [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue leveraging its strong marketing capabilities and established distribution channels to drive further growth in the beauty and personal care industry [7] - The introduction of new product lines and a return to offline sales channels are anticipated to enhance profitability and market reach [7]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 2024 年 07 月 24 日 宏观深度报告 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 毕先磊 资格编号：S0120524030001 邮箱：bxl3＠tebon.com.cn 陈梦洁 资格编号：S0120524030002 邮箱：chenmj3＠tebon.com.cn 陈蓉芳 资格编号：S0120522060001 邮箱：chenrf＠tebon.com.cn 陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 邓健全 资格编号：S0120523100001 邮箱：dengjq＠tebon.com.cn 吕品 资格编号：S0120524050005 邮箱：lvpin＠tebon.com.cn 马笑 资格编号：S0120522100002 邮箱：maxiao＠tebon.com.cn 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xu ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 电力设备 2024 年 07 月 25 日 电力设备 优于大市 证券分析师 彭广春 资格编号：S0120522070001 邮箱：penggc＠tebon.com.cn 赵皓 资格编号：S0120524030004 邮箱：zhaohao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 电力设备 沪深300 -44% -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 24M6 动力电池产量同比环比双增长，行 业需求保持良好 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 产量方面：我国动力电池和其他电池产量共计 84.5GWh，同比增长 28.7%。根据 中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟，6 月我国动力电池和其他电池产量共计 84.5GWh，同比增长 28.7%，环比增长 2.2%。其中三元电池产量 20.5GWh，占 总产量 24.3%，同比增长 15.0%，环比下降 6.9%；磷酸铁锂电池产量 63.8GWh， 占总产量 75.5%，同比增长 33. ...