[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2024 年 07 月 31 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 产能利用率回升与投资高增支撑供给端景气 ——2024 年 7 月 PMI 数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点：7 月 PMI 产需回落，供给端景气水平继续强于需求端。产能迭代、产 能保全、产能储备导致供强于需的格局持续，且二季度产能利用率回升和制造业 投资持续高增指向市场机制正推动先进产能替代落后产能，制造业和经济增长空 间有望打开；需求端增量政策 7 月出台，政策效果有待释放，PMI 中表征需求的 相关指数阶段性较低也属合理。向前看，供给端预计仍将保持平稳，需求端仍需 等待政策效能释放；上半年地方新增专项债发行较慢，7 月 30 日政治局会议提出 加快发行专项债，三季度发行和实物工作量形成有望加快，叠加部分地区洪涝灾 害后重建工作，建筑业产需指数有望改善。 产需：先进产能替代落后产能打开增长空间。7 月制造业 PMI 为 49.4%，环比下 降 0.1 个百分点，基 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2024 年 07 月 28 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | 海外市场周报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | | | 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 上周全球主要股指多数下跌。欧洲股市相对强势，英国富时 100、德国 DAX 涨幅 均在 1%以上；美股内部分化，道琼斯工业指数上涨，标普 500 和纳斯达克下跌； 亚太地区相对弱势，韩国综合指数下跌 2.3%，日经 225 下跌近 6%。 科技巨头财报略不及预期，美股结构分化有所收敛。上周谷歌与特斯拉公布二季度 财报，正式拉开科技巨头业绩披露的序幕。谷歌公司营收和 EPS 均超预期，但营 收和净利润增速较一季度回落；备受关注的云业务营收 1 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业深度 轻工纺服 2024 年 07 月 25 日 轻工纺服 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 毕先磊 资格编号：S0120524030001 邮箱：bixl3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 李陌凡 邮箱：limf3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 轻工制造 沪深300 -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 以日本"失去的三十年"为鉴， 看中国宠物食品行业增长潜能 宠物行业深度报告系列（一） [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 知日：价升接力量增，穿越"失去的三十年"。回顾日本宠物食品发展历程，泡沫 破灭后的经济下行阶段行业仍具较强韧性。从量价视角来看，我们认为在不同时期 助力行业增长的因素有所差异：前期主要依托宠物数量的增长；后期则受益于行业 高端化的推进。 前期驱动力：家庭规模小型化+人口老龄化助力宠物数量增长。拆分量价来 看，泡沫破灭初期宠物食品流通量的增长为行业持续扩容的核心驱动力，其 背后的原因系宠物饲养数量的增加 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 计算机 2024 年 07 月 28 日 计算机 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 计算机 沪深300 -43% -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《【德邦计算机】电力 IT 系列 2： 更新周期+出海高增，智能电表高景 气》，2024.7.26 2.《计算机行业 2024 年中期策略-三个方向，带领计算机走出困境》， 2024.7.23 3.《DRGDIP 改革关注医疗 IT 拐点 机遇》，2024.7.23 4.《微软蓝屏，信创自主可控再掀浪 潮》，2024.7.21 5.《萝卜快跑验证自动驾驶未来已 来》，2024.7.14 智谱清影推动视频生成大模型普 及 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 智谱 AI 版 Sora 清影发布，人人可用、半分钟快速创作视频的时代已来。7 月 26 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 风电设备 2024 年 07 月 26 日 风电设备 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 彭广春 资格编号：S0120522070001 邮箱：penggc＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 风电设备 沪深300 -51% -43% -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《风电行业策略年度报告-梅花香 自苦寒来》，2023.12.20 2.《泰胜风能（300129.SZ）：三季 报符合预期，在手订单充裕，双海战 略持续发威》，2023.11.2 海风迎来密集催化，长期看好风 电迈向深远海与出海大趋势 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 广东海上风电项目加速推进。根据北极星风力发电网， 7 月 8 日，《中广核阳江帆 石一海上风电场基础预制施工及风机安装工程 IV 标段中标候选人公示》发布，计 划工期为 2024 年 6 月 30 日至 2025 年 7 月 30 日。7 月 18 日，中核集团新华发 电湛江徐闻东二海上风电项目获核准，至此，广东省 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 2024 年 07 月 28 日 煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 薛磊 资格编号：S0120524020001 邮箱：xuelei＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 煤炭开采 沪深300 -22% -11% 0% 11% 22% 33% 44% 55% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：板块逻辑未变，调 整即为布局良机》，2024.7.21 2.《煤炭行业月报：国内生产逐步 恢 复 ， 旺 季 需 求 值 得 期 待 》， 2024.7.16 3.《煤炭周报：高温抬升日耗，煤 价止跌反弹》，2024.7.14 4.《煤炭周报：旺季已至，板块企 稳反弹在即》，2024.7.7 5.《煤炭周报：终端日耗延续回 升 ， 建 议 板 块 逢 低 加 配 》， 2024.6.30 煤炭周报：设备更新政策加码， 重视焦煤底部布局 [Table_Summa ...

Group 1: Economic Value Added (EVA) Insights - The concept of Economic Value Added (EVA) is crucial for evaluating the true economic profit of enterprises, calculated as after-tax operating profit minus the opportunity cost of capital[2] - From 2010 to 2022, the EVA of central enterprises increased from 71.4 billion to 842 billion, with a CAGR of 22.83%[23] - Central enterprises have shown a significant advantage in EVA scale and growth compared to private enterprises, although they are currently experiencing a downward trend[1] Group 2: Policy Implications and Reforms - The Third Plenary Session emphasized the importance of conducting EVA accounting as a key indicator for state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform, potentially becoming a critical assessment metric[6] - The introduction of EVA accounting is expected to enhance the performance evaluation system for SOEs, marking a shift towards a more value-based assessment approach[10] - The ongoing reforms aim to optimize the capital structure and improve the efficiency of state-owned capital, thereby strengthening the core functions and competitiveness of SOEs[1] Group 3: Historical Context of SOE Performance Evaluation - Since 1978, the performance evaluation of SOEs has evolved from a single performance metric to a comprehensive and now a classified performance evaluation system[12] - The current evaluation system for central enterprises has transitioned from "two profits and one rate" to "one profit and five rates," reflecting a more nuanced approach to performance metrics[20] - The emphasis on EVA in the evaluation framework indicates a growing recognition of its importance in assessing the long-term value creation capabilities of SOEs[23] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The application of EVA assessment methods in China is still immature, facing practical limitations and challenges in implementation[3] - The deepening of SOE reforms may encounter complexities that could slow down progress, potentially affecting the overall economic landscape[3] - Strengthening state capital may lead to a crowding-out effect on private capital, impacting the high-quality development of the private economy[3]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail and beauty sector [1] Core Views - The report highlights the potential of Yingtong Holdings, China's largest perfume brand management company, as it plans for a Hong Kong IPO [2] - The perfume market in China is expected to grow significantly, driven by rising demand and increasing prices, with a CAGR of 13% from 2018 to 2024 [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of diversifying product categories and focusing on self-owned brands, particularly in the perfume segment [3] Company Analysis: Yingtong Holdings Overview - Yingtong Holdings is the largest perfume brand management company in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, managing a diverse portfolio of brands including Hermès, Van Cleef & Arpels, and Laura Mercier [2][16] - The company operates across multiple categories, including perfumes, skincare, makeup, and home fragrances [16] Financial Performance - Revenue and net profit grew at a CAGR of 5.49% and 9.76%, respectively, from 2022 to 2024, indicating steady growth [3][17] - Gross margins slightly declined due to the termination of a brand distribution agreement and promotional clearance sales, particularly affecting the perfume segment [3][18] - The company has efficiently utilized channel resources, leading to a reduction in sales expenses and improved profitability [19] Product and Channel Strategy - Yingtong Holdings has a comprehensive product matrix, with perfumes accounting for over 80% of sales, though the share is gradually decreasing as the company diversifies into other categories [20][25] - The company operates through a balanced mix of online and offline channels, including direct retail, distributors, and self-operated stores [26] - Future plans include further development of self-owned brands, expansion of retail channels, and digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency [29] Market Outlook - The global perfume market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4% from 2018 to 2024, while the Chinese market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 13%, driven by increasing consumer awareness and rising disposable incomes [30][32] - Online channels are growing faster than offline, with a CAGR of 24.6% from 2018 to 2023, contributing significantly to market expansion [33] Industry Trends and News Company Announcements - Hongqi Chain reported a 3.67% YoY increase in revenue for H1 2024, with net profit growing by 3.81% [35] - Chow Tai Fook's retail sales declined by 20% YoY in Q1 2024, primarily due to macroeconomic factors and reduced demand for discretionary spending [35] - Shanghai Jahwa issued a positive profit alert, with revenue expected to grow by 114.3%-126.9% YoY in H1 2024, driven by strong performance of its core brands [35] Industry News - Dong Yuhui, a prominent livestreamer for East Buy, left the company and acquired 100% equity in Yuhui Tongxing [36] - Douyin's e-commerce platform saw a 43% YoY increase in total sales by influencers, with a 74% increase in the number of new influencers [36] - Yonghui Superstores announced the closure of three stores in Beijing, with similar closures reported in Zhengzhou and Shanghai [36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance in the beauty and retail sectors, particularly those with high growth potential in the perfume and cosmetics markets [6] - Key companies to watch include Yingtong Holdings, Shanghai Jahwa, and Chow Tai Fook, among others [6][35]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 房地产 2024 年 07 月 29 日 房地产 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 金文曦 资格编号：S0120522100001 邮箱：jinwx＠tebon.com.cn 蔡萌萌 资格编号：S0120524050003 邮箱：caimm＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 房地产 沪深300 -51% -43% -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《三中全会地产相关政策解读-深 化制度改革，加快构建房地产发展新 模式》，2024.7.23 2. 《 房 地 产 行 业 周 报 （2024.7.15-7.19）-北京启动商品房 "以旧换新"，5 年期以上 LPR 调 降》，2024.7.22 3.《滨江集团（002244.SZ）首次覆 盖报告-区域聚焦强品质，业绩稳健 显韧性》，2024.7.17 4.《24 年 1-6 月国家统计局房地产数 据追踪-销售降幅略有收窄，竣工面 积累计同比降幅扩大》，2024.7.16 5.《房地产行业周报（2024.7 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业专题 食品饮料 2024 年 07 月 30 日 食品饮料 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 熊鹏 资格编号：S0120522120002 邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 食品饮料 沪深300 -37% -31% -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《食品饮料行业周报 20240722- 20240726-板块配置回到低位，建议 关注中报超预期个股》，2024.7.28 2.《水井坊（600779.SH）：24Q2 业 绩 超 预 期 ， 经 营 稳 中 有 进 》， 2024.7.27 3.《食品饮料行业周报(20240715- 20240719）：板块情绪回暖，建议关 注中报超预期个股》，2024.7.22 4.《食品饮料行业周报 20240708- 20240712-中期业绩预告集中披露， 建议关注超预期个股》，2024.7.14 5.《今世缘（603369.SH）：上市十周 年，勇攀新高峰》，2024.7.13 2024Q ...