[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业深度 轻工纺服 2024 年 07 月 25 日 轻工纺服 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 毕先磊 资格编号：S0120524030001 邮箱：bixl3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 李陌凡 邮箱：limf3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 轻工制造 沪深300 -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 以日本"失去的三十年"为鉴， 看中国宠物食品行业增长潜能 宠物行业深度报告系列（一） [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 知日：价升接力量增，穿越"失去的三十年"。回顾日本宠物食品发展历程，泡沫 破灭后的经济下行阶段行业仍具较强韧性。从量价视角来看，我们认为在不同时期 助力行业增长的因素有所差异：前期主要依托宠物数量的增长；后期则受益于行业 高端化的推进。 前期驱动力：家庭规模小型化+人口老龄化助力宠物数量增长。拆分量价来 看，泡沫破灭初期宠物食品流通量的增长为行业持续扩容的核心驱动力，其 背后的原因系宠物饲养数量的增加 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 计算机 2024 年 07 月 28 日 计算机 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 计算机 沪深300 -43% -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《【德邦计算机】电力 IT 系列 2： 更新周期+出海高增，智能电表高景 气》，2024.7.26 2.《计算机行业 2024 年中期策略-三个方向，带领计算机走出困境》， 2024.7.23 3.《DRGDIP 改革关注医疗 IT 拐点 机遇》，2024.7.23 4.《微软蓝屏，信创自主可控再掀浪 潮》，2024.7.21 5.《萝卜快跑验证自动驾驶未来已 来》，2024.7.14 智谱清影推动视频生成大模型普 及 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 智谱 AI 版 Sora 清影发布，人人可用、半分钟快速创作视频的时代已来。7 月 26 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 风电设备 2024 年 07 月 26 日 风电设备 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 彭广春 资格编号：S0120522070001 邮箱：penggc＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 风电设备 沪深300 -51% -43% -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《风电行业策略年度报告-梅花香 自苦寒来》，2023.12.20 2.《泰胜风能（300129.SZ）：三季 报符合预期，在手订单充裕，双海战 略持续发威》，2023.11.2 海风迎来密集催化，长期看好风 电迈向深远海与出海大趋势 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 广东海上风电项目加速推进。根据北极星风力发电网， 7 月 8 日，《中广核阳江帆 石一海上风电场基础预制施工及风机安装工程 IV 标段中标候选人公示》发布，计 划工期为 2024 年 6 月 30 日至 2025 年 7 月 30 日。7 月 18 日，中核集团新华发 电湛江徐闻东二海上风电项目获核准，至此，广东省 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 2024 年 07 月 28 日 煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 薛磊 资格编号：S0120524020001 邮箱：xuelei＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 煤炭开采 沪深300 -22% -11% 0% 11% 22% 33% 44% 55% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：板块逻辑未变，调 整即为布局良机》，2024.7.21 2.《煤炭行业月报：国内生产逐步 恢 复 ， 旺 季 需 求 值 得 期 待 》， 2024.7.16 3.《煤炭周报：高温抬升日耗，煤 价止跌反弹》，2024.7.14 4.《煤炭周报：旺季已至，板块企 稳反弹在即》，2024.7.7 5.《煤炭周报：终端日耗延续回 升 ， 建 议 板 块 逢 低 加 配 》， 2024.6.30 煤炭周报：设备更新政策加码， 重视焦煤底部布局 [Table_Summa ...

Group 1: Economic Value Added (EVA) Insights - The concept of Economic Value Added (EVA) is crucial for evaluating the true economic profit of enterprises, calculated as after-tax operating profit minus the opportunity cost of capital[2] - From 2010 to 2022, the EVA of central enterprises increased from 71.4 billion to 842 billion, with a CAGR of 22.83%[23] - Central enterprises have shown a significant advantage in EVA scale and growth compared to private enterprises, although they are currently experiencing a downward trend[1] Group 2: Policy Implications and Reforms - The Third Plenary Session emphasized the importance of conducting EVA accounting as a key indicator for state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform, potentially becoming a critical assessment metric[6] - The introduction of EVA accounting is expected to enhance the performance evaluation system for SOEs, marking a shift towards a more value-based assessment approach[10] - The ongoing reforms aim to optimize the capital structure and improve the efficiency of state-owned capital, thereby strengthening the core functions and competitiveness of SOEs[1] Group 3: Historical Context of SOE Performance Evaluation - Since 1978, the performance evaluation of SOEs has evolved from a single performance metric to a comprehensive and now a classified performance evaluation system[12] - The current evaluation system for central enterprises has transitioned from "two profits and one rate" to "one profit and five rates," reflecting a more nuanced approach to performance metrics[20] - The emphasis on EVA in the evaluation framework indicates a growing recognition of its importance in assessing the long-term value creation capabilities of SOEs[23] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The application of EVA assessment methods in China is still immature, facing practical limitations and challenges in implementation[3] - The deepening of SOE reforms may encounter complexities that could slow down progress, potentially affecting the overall economic landscape[3] - Strengthening state capital may lead to a crowding-out effect on private capital, impacting the high-quality development of the private economy[3]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail and beauty sector [1] Core Views - The report highlights the potential of Yingtong Holdings, China's largest perfume brand management company, as it plans for a Hong Kong IPO [2] - The perfume market in China is expected to grow significantly, driven by rising demand and increasing prices, with a CAGR of 13% from 2018 to 2024 [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of diversifying product categories and focusing on self-owned brands, particularly in the perfume segment [3] Company Analysis: Yingtong Holdings Overview - Yingtong Holdings is the largest perfume brand management company in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, managing a diverse portfolio of brands including Hermès, Van Cleef & Arpels, and Laura Mercier [2][16] - The company operates across multiple categories, including perfumes, skincare, makeup, and home fragrances [16] Financial Performance - Revenue and net profit grew at a CAGR of 5.49% and 9.76%, respectively, from 2022 to 2024, indicating steady growth [3][17] - Gross margins slightly declined due to the termination of a brand distribution agreement and promotional clearance sales, particularly affecting the perfume segment [3][18] - The company has efficiently utilized channel resources, leading to a reduction in sales expenses and improved profitability [19] Product and Channel Strategy - Yingtong Holdings has a comprehensive product matrix, with perfumes accounting for over 80% of sales, though the share is gradually decreasing as the company diversifies into other categories [20][25] - The company operates through a balanced mix of online and offline channels, including direct retail, distributors, and self-operated stores [26] - Future plans include further development of self-owned brands, expansion of retail channels, and digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency [29] Market Outlook - The global perfume market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4% from 2018 to 2024, while the Chinese market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 13%, driven by increasing consumer awareness and rising disposable incomes [30][32] - Online channels are growing faster than offline, with a CAGR of 24.6% from 2018 to 2023, contributing significantly to market expansion [33] Industry Trends and News Company Announcements - Hongqi Chain reported a 3.67% YoY increase in revenue for H1 2024, with net profit growing by 3.81% [35] - Chow Tai Fook's retail sales declined by 20% YoY in Q1 2024, primarily due to macroeconomic factors and reduced demand for discretionary spending [35] - Shanghai Jahwa issued a positive profit alert, with revenue expected to grow by 114.3%-126.9% YoY in H1 2024, driven by strong performance of its core brands [35] Industry News - Dong Yuhui, a prominent livestreamer for East Buy, left the company and acquired 100% equity in Yuhui Tongxing [36] - Douyin's e-commerce platform saw a 43% YoY increase in total sales by influencers, with a 74% increase in the number of new influencers [36] - Yonghui Superstores announced the closure of three stores in Beijing, with similar closures reported in Zhengzhou and Shanghai [36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance in the beauty and retail sectors, particularly those with high growth potential in the perfume and cosmetics markets [6] - Key companies to watch include Yingtong Holdings, Shanghai Jahwa, and Chow Tai Fook, among others [6][35]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 房地产 2024 年 07 月 29 日 房地产 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 金文曦 资格编号：S0120522100001 邮箱：jinwx＠tebon.com.cn 蔡萌萌 资格编号：S0120524050003 邮箱：caimm＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 房地产 沪深300 -51% -43% -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《三中全会地产相关政策解读-深 化制度改革，加快构建房地产发展新 模式》，2024.7.23 2. 《 房 地 产 行 业 周 报 （2024.7.15-7.19）-北京启动商品房 "以旧换新"，5 年期以上 LPR 调 降》，2024.7.22 3.《滨江集团（002244.SZ）首次覆 盖报告-区域聚焦强品质，业绩稳健 显韧性》，2024.7.17 4.《24 年 1-6 月国家统计局房地产数 据追踪-销售降幅略有收窄，竣工面 积累计同比降幅扩大》，2024.7.16 5.《房地产行业周报（2024.7 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业专题 食品饮料 2024 年 07 月 30 日 食品饮料 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 熊鹏 资格编号：S0120522120002 邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 食品饮料 沪深300 -37% -31% -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《食品饮料行业周报 20240722- 20240726-板块配置回到低位，建议 关注中报超预期个股》，2024.7.28 2.《水井坊（600779.SH）：24Q2 业 绩 超 预 期 ， 经 营 稳 中 有 进 》， 2024.7.27 3.《食品饮料行业周报(20240715- 20240719）：板块情绪回暖，建议关 注中报超预期个股》，2024.7.22 4.《食品饮料行业周报 20240708- 20240712-中期业绩预告集中披露， 建议关注超预期个股》，2024.7.14 5.《今世缘（603369.SH）：上市十周 年，勇攀新高峰》，2024.7.13 2024Q ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|-------------------------------| | | | | 2024 年 07 月 27 日 | | 宏观点评 | | | | | | —— | 2024 | 月工业企业利润数据点评 | | 证券分析师 | | | | 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点：1-6 月规上工企盈利同比增速小幅回升，或主要受利润率同比降幅收 窄影响。装备制造业盈利增速下滑，公用事业涨价带动相关行业盈利高增，原材 料制造业盈利压力逐步缓解。向前看，装备制造业"以价换量"或近尾声，价格 弹性或可期待；"去地产化"或导致弱补库持续，外向型行业补库动力或较强。 事件：2024 年 7 月 27 日国家统计局发布 1-6 月份工业企业利润统计数据：国家 统计局数据显示，1-6月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 35110.3亿元 ...

Key Points on State-Owned Economic Value Added (EVA) - The Third Plenum emphasizes the importance of "State-Owned Economic Value Added" (EVA) as a key metric for state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform, potentially becoming a critical component of the "One Profit, Five Ratios" financial indicator system for central SOEs[1][6] - EVA reflects the value created by SOEs in the production process and measures their incremental contribution to the national economy, offering a more objective assessment of value creation compared to traditional profit metrics[2][8] - Central SOEs' EVA grew from 71.4 billion yuan in 2010 to 842 billion yuan in 2022, with a 12-year CAGR of 22.83%, significantly outperforming private enterprises in both scale and growth rate[2][22] - The EVA of central and local SOEs has shown better improvement compared to private enterprises since 2020, with a more moderate decline during recent economic downturns[2][24] - Key industries such as upstream resources, infrastructure, and real estate dominate the EVA scale of central SOEs, while sectors like automobiles and food & beverages are significant for local SOEs[26][27] Evolution of SOE Performance Evaluation System - The SOE performance evaluation system has evolved from single-type (1978-1992) to comprehensive (1993-2002) and then to classified performance evaluation (2013-present), with EVA gaining importance as a key metric[11][12] - Since 2019, the central SOE performance evaluation system has shifted from "Two Profits, One Ratio" to "One Profit, Five Ratios," incorporating metrics like ROE and operating cash ratio to enhance profitability and operational efficiency[19][20] Risks and Challenges - The application of EVA in China's SOEs is still immature, with potential limitations and difficulties in practical implementation[3][30] - The deepening of SOE reforms into more complex areas may face delays, and the strengthening of state capital could potentially crowd out private capital, impacting the high-quality development of the private economy[3][30]