| --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | 明泰铝业（ 买入（维持） | 601677.SH ）：发布 6 | | 月经营快报， 所属行业：有色金属 / 工业金属 当前价格 ( 元 ) ： 12.59 | 24H1 预告业绩大 | | 证券分析师 | 增 | 事件一：公司发布 2024 年半年报业绩预增公告，超预期。公司预计 2024 年 H1 实现归母净利 10-11 亿元，同比增加 1.97-2.97 亿元，增幅 25%-37%；预计实现 扣非归母净利 8.5-9.5 亿元，同比增加 2.10-3.10 亿元，增幅 33%-48%。2024Q2 预计实现归母净利 6.38-7.38 亿元，环比 2024Q1 增长 76%-104%。业绩预增主 要系①产销规模稳步提升，2024H1 销量增长约 19%；②再生铝保级应用优势不 断突显，使用比例不断扩大，提升单吨盈利空间；③出海战略成效初显。 长期规划产销规模达 200 万吨，再生 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Xingrui Technology (002937.SZ) with a positive outlook on its growth potential in the automotive electronics sector [19]. Core Insights - Xingrui Technology has shown significant revenue growth, particularly in automotive electronics, which has become a major revenue driver, while the share of mold products and consumer electronics in total revenue has gradually decreased [2][6]. - The company has successfully expanded its customer base, including international and domestic leading clients, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, which is expected to continue driving revenue growth [6][9]. - The report highlights the continuous improvement in gross margin, attributed to the increasing revenue from high-margin automotive electronics and smart terminal businesses [9][12]. Financial Overview - The company's total operating revenue from 2019 to Q1 2024 is projected to grow from 1.023 billion to 2.006 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 41.16% in 2022 [6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 138 million yuan in 2019 to 267 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a strong upward trend in profitability [6]. - The gross margin from 2019 to 2023 has improved from 28.57% to 26.91%, with a notable recovery post-2021 due to increased sales in high-margin products [9][12]. Product Revenue Composition - Automotive electronics have become the primary revenue source, with a significant increase in its revenue share over the past three years, while the contributions from mold products and consumer electronics have decreased [2][6]. - The report indicates that the automotive electronics segment is expected to continue contributing significantly to the company's revenue growth, despite a slight decline in smart terminal revenue in 2023 [6]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the growing demand for embedded plastic components in the automotive sector, particularly in the context of the three-electric system (battery, motor, and electronic control) of new energy vehicles [37][48]. - The market for automotive electronic embedded plastic components is projected to grow at a CAGR of 27.6% from 2021 to 2025, indicating a robust growth outlook for the sector [64][70]. Competitive Advantages - Xingrui Technology's management team possesses extensive experience in precision manufacturing, which enhances its ability to capture market opportunities and drive growth [26]. - The company has established a strong R&D capability, enabling it to develop customized solutions in collaboration with key clients, thereby strengthening its competitive position in the market [80].

日本消费税课税范围广泛，税目设置多。日本消费税课税税目数量多，国税 涉及 15 种，地方税涉及 10 种，征税范围较大。此外，日本消费税涉及多个征税 环节，针对境内产品销售及服务提供，几乎涵盖所有行业，从制造到批发和零售。 消费税征收涉及各个消费领域，具有普遍性和连续性的特征。日本为减轻纳税人 在税务程序及税额上的负担等，制定了相应的免税条例：年度的应征税销售额在 1,000 万日元以下的经营者（上一会计年度前 6 个月的销售额超过 1,000 万日元 的以及已选为征税经营者的除外），在满足一定条件的情况下可免除其在此征税期 间内的纳税义务。 宏观深度报告 图 13：2023 年日本消费税占总税收的比例为 32.5%，过往消费税税率调整对税收收入的拉动作用不明显 2.1.3. 兼具扩税收和调理念作用 2.2. 中国台湾消费税：财税功能减弱，调节功能增强 23 / 49 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 深度报告 2024 年 07 月 09 日 宏观深度报告 证券分析师 | | |------------------------------| | 程强 | | 资格编号:S0120524010005 | | 邮箱:chengqiang@tebon.com.cn | 研究助理 相关研究 消费税不同地区比较与国内展望 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 核心观点:随着三中全会的临近,新一轮财税体制改革成为市场关注焦点,结合不 同地区比较经验,我们认为应更多从税源而非税收的角度去理解消费税,消费税后 移至地方重点在于给予了地方政府更大的积极性,通过经济增长和产业发展,一方 面改善居民收入和财富,另一方面强化自身的消费供给竞争力,从而推动消费的增 长达到扩大税源的目的,地方消费税也自然提升。 消费税改革重点关注三个方面:1)范围上可考虑服务国家重大战略(绿色低碳、 共同富裕、资源节约等)和消费结构变化(高端消费、服务消费)进行调整。2) 税率调节重在考虑行业特性、引导消费有序发展。3)推进征收环节后移并稳步下 划地方有助于培育税源,考虑稳妥推进和可操 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观周报 核心观点：1）国常会关注两点：一是数字经济方面，下半年数据要素市场化配置 或会加速推进；二是西部大开发有助于弥合区域发展的不充分，统筹发展与安全的 焦点在西部。2）央行借券有两个超预期，一是无固定期限、信用方式借券；二是 直接引导预期一步到位。借券的目的一方面是央行利率调控政策脉络，另一方面还 能阶段性补充中长期国债的供给。3）英国工党时隔十四年重新成为执政党。在对 华政策上，在经济利益与安全利益的共同作用下预计中英关系将会有所改善，若特 朗普上任可能出现变化。 热点观察 1：国常会强调推进数字经济高质量发展。7 月 5 日国常会研究部署推进 数字经济高质量发展有关工作，我们认为此次国常会有两点值得关注：其一是数字 经济方面，在数字经济高质量发展和产业数字化持续推进的背景下，下半年数据要 素市场化配置或会加速形成；其二是西部大开放方面，西部大开发有助于弥合区域 发展的不充分，在统筹发展与安全背景下，西部地区是重要项目载体和战略增长 点。 高频宏观数据。我们从十大维度进行了高频分析，并将其映射到九大个行业，高频 数据或支撑交运、煤炭、化工和有色景气度提升，文 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观周报 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|------------------------|-------------------------------| | 宏观周报 | | | 2024 年 07 月 09 日 | | | | 本周看什么：大选、借券 | | | | -- | 宏观周报（ | ） | | 证券分析师 | | | | [Table_Summary] 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 核心观点：1）国常会关注两点：一是数字经济方面，下半年数据要素市场化配置 或会加速推进；二是西部大开发有助于弥合区域发展的不充分，统筹发展与安全的 焦点在西部。2）央行借券有两个超预期，一是无固定期限、信用方式借券；二是 直接引导预期一步到位。借券的目的一方面是央行利率调控政策脉络，另一方面还 能阶段性补充中长期国债的供给。3）英国工党时隔十四年重新成为执政党。在对 华政策上，在经济利益与安全利益的共同作用下预计中英关系将会有所改善，若特 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 乖宝宠物(301498.SZ) 2024 年 07 月 09 日 流通 A 股(百万股)： 40.00 总市值(百万元)： 20,194.25 每股净资产(元)： 9.51 资料来源：公司公告 所属行业：农林牧渔/饲料 当前价格(元)：50.48 市场表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------|--------|-------| | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅 (%) | -3.98 | -10.31 | 3.87 | | 相对涨幅 (%) | 0.85 | -4.01 | 7.68 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 1.《乖宝宠物 2023 业绩预告点评：经 营表现持续靓丽，品牌高端化获效显 著》，2024.1.19 2.《乖宝宠物 23Q3 业绩点评：业绩靓 丽超预期，自主品牌贡献持续提升》， 2023.10.25 3.《乖宝宠物 VS 珀莱雅：逐条解构， 为什么值得对比分析？》，2023.8. ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 机械设备 2024 年 07 月 09 日 机械设备 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 何思源 资格编号:S0120522100004 邮箱:hesy@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 机械设备 沪深300 -37% -31% -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《东睦股份(600114.SH)半年报 预告点评:业绩高速增长,SMC、 P&S 业务营收二季度创季度历史新 高》,2024.7.8 2.《工程机械:国内需求向好,电动 装载机渗透率提升》,2024.7.8 3.《机械行业周报:即将迎来 WAIC 大会,关注人形机器人相关投资机 会》,2024.7.1 4.《机械行业周报:华为开发者大会 成本周焦点》,2024.6.25 5.《CME 六月预测数据:国内需求整 体 向 好 , 海 外 降 幅 持 续 收 窄 》, 2024.6.24 机械行业周报:挖机内销数据持续高 增,关注工程机械板块行业修复机会 [Table_Summary] 投资 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, with estimates ranging from approximately 145.5 to 154.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of about 41% to 50% [4] - The company has reported a substantial increase in production and prices of its main products, contributing to the expected profit growth [4] - The company has made breakthroughs in resource reserves, adding significant copper metal resources, which is a key part of its growth strategy [5] - The company is projected to see continued growth in gold and copper production over the next few years, with net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 showing strong growth rates [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 34% [1] Financial Performance - For 2024H1, the company anticipates a net profit increase of approximately 42.48 to 51.48 billion yuan compared to 2023H1 [4] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of around 82.9 to 91.9 billion yuan for Q2 2024, marking a 39.6% increase from Q1 2024 [4] - The average price of gold and copper has increased significantly, contributing to the expected profit growth [4] Production and Resource Development - The company reported a year-on-year increase in gold production of 9.6% and copper production of 5.3% for 2024H1 [4] - Major projects like the Kamoa Copper Mine and the Giant Dragon Copper Mine are expected to significantly boost production capacity in the coming years [5] - The company has added 1,837.7 million tons of copper metal resources, which is about 14.2% of China's copper reserves as of the end of 2022 [5] Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 313 billion yuan in 2024, with growth rates of 48.4%, 24.8%, and 14.1% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] - The expected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 15.7x, 12.5x, and 11.0x, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 汽车 2024 年 07 月 08 日 汽车 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 邓健全 资格编号:S0120523100001 邮箱:dengjq@tebon.com.cn 赵悦媛 资格编号:S0120523100002 邮箱:zhaoyy5@tebon.com.cn 赵启政 资格编号:S0120523120002 邮箱:zhaoqz@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 秦梓月 邮箱:qinzy@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 汽车 沪深300 -31% -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 相关研究 1.《特斯拉 Q2 交付量超预期,FSD 入华持续推进》,2024.7.7 2.《长安汽车(000625.SZ):6 月深 蓝 G318 正式上市,阿维塔将首批搭 载华为乾崑 ADS 3.0》,2024.7.4 3.《雅迪控股(01585.HK):政策+ 市场驱动行业加速集中,全球龙头持 续成长》,2024.7.4 4.《松原股份(300893.SZ):2024H1 ...