证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 2024年06月23日 煤炭周报：高温来袭煤价易涨难 煤炭 跌，板块向好趋势不改 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 翟堃  水电挤压效应犹在，静待需求释放。A）价格及事件回顾：本周秦皇岛港动力煤 资格编号：s0120523050002 Q5500价格小幅下跌至 868元/吨（环比-0.34%）。供应端，主产地多数煤矿维持 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 正常产销，个别产量异常煤矿逐步恢复，整体供应小幅上升。坑口方面，产地多 薛磊 维持长协发运，非电行业按需采购，部分地区煤价小幅下跌。港口方面，交投氛 资格编号：S0120524020001 围僵持，中转环节库存持续攀升，发运倒挂下，贸易商发货意愿不高，观望情绪 邮箱：xuelei＠tebon.com.cn 浓厚。下游方面，南方进入梅雨季节，水电挤压效应犹在，终端日耗提升较缓， 旺季采购或将有所滞后。B）价格短期观点：我们判断煤价有望开启震荡反弹。 研究助理 i）迎峰度夏开启：根据深圳市气象局预测，未来 2-3 天，副热带高压的“势力范 围”将逐渐控制华南大 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 汽车 2024年06月23日 汽车 5 月中国汽车出口同比+29%，阿维塔 推动进入阿联酋市场 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 邓健全 资格编号：S0120523100001  行业重点新闻。（1）2024年5月中国汽车出口56.8万台，同比+29%，环比+2%； 邮箱：dengjq＠tebon.com.cn 1-5月中国汽车出口245万台，同比+26%。据乘联会秘书长崔东树公众号，2024 赵悦媛 年 5 月中国汽车出口总量的前五国家分别为俄罗斯 103763 辆、巴西 53164 辆、 资格编号：S0120523100002 墨西哥42192辆、比利时28851辆、阿联酋28661辆。2024年5月中国新能源 邮箱：zhaoyy5＠tebon.com.cn 汽车出口20.7万台，同比+33%；1-5月出口新能源车87万台，同比+29%。（2） 赵启政 上汽集团计划在欧洲为名爵品牌生产包括电动汽车和轻型卡车在内的汽车。（3） 资格编号：S0120523120002 极星汽车计划明年进入法国等7个新市场 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 计算机 2024年06月23日 “科八条”提振并购重组，看好 计算机 工业软件 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 “科八条”坚守“硬科技”定位，支持活跃并购重组市场有望提升上市公司整体科  邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 技实力。6月19日，证监会发布《关于深化科创板改革 服务科技创新和新质生产 力发展的八条措施》（以下简称“科八条”）。“科八条”紧紧围绕服务高水平科技自 研究助理 立自强和新质生产力发展，突出重点、远近结合，推出一揽子改革举措。特别是， 针对市场反映较为集中的新股发行高价超募、活跃并购重组市场、加强上市公司监 王思 管等问题，“科八条”均作出了相应安排。其中，针对活跃并购重组市场表述为： 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn “更大力度支持并购重组。支持科创板上市公司开展产业链上下游的并购整合。提 高并购重组估值包容性，支持科创板上市公司收购优质未盈利‘硬科技’企业。丰 市场表现 富并购重组支付工具，开展股份对价分期 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 公用事业 2024 年 06 月 22 日 公用事业 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 郭雪 资格编号：S0120522120001 邮箱：guoxue＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 公用事业 沪深300 相关研究 1.《公用事业板块 2023 年年报及 2024 年一季报总结：火电如期修 复，水核行稳致远》，2024.5.17 2.《环保板块 2023 年年报及 2024 年一季报总结：24Q1 修复态势初 显，建议关注水价调整及环保设备 更新带来的投资机会》，2024.5.14 3.《皖能电力（000543.SZ）：安 徽煤电龙头，业绩增长可期》， 2024.5.13 4.《环保与公用事业周报-公用事业 价格上涨，关注水务、燃气板块利 润修复》，2024.5.12 5.《ESG 周报：首批绿债基金密集 发售，公募积极布局绿色金融新 "蓝海";微软签下史上最大绿色能 源协议》，2024.5.11 ESG 周报：中国人民银行 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司首次覆盖 时代天使(06699.HK) 2024年06月21日 时代天使：隐形正畸龙头，从中 买入（首次） 所属行业：医疗保健业/医疗保健设备和 国走向全球 服务 当前价格(港币)：60.00元 副标题：楷体四号，非必填 投资要点 证券分析师 易丁依 导语：全球错颌畸形患病率高+隐形正畸更优替代，预期市场高增长潜力；时代  资格编号：S0120523070004 天使深耕中国市场，凭借产品优势+优质服务+大量案例积累正向循环，国内绑定 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 医生深化下沉市场；海外以产品性价比+医生服务+及时交付，有望抢占市场份 额，预估海外市场高成长潜力，首次覆盖给予买入评级。 市场表现  隐形正畸市场概况：需求高然供给寡，全球隐适美一家独大，中国双寡头竞争。 据灼识咨询数据，中国 2023 年隐形矫治规模为 130 亿元，有望以 14.7%CAGR 时代天使 恒生指数 增至 2030 年的 340 亿元：1）需求端：中国各年龄段平均错颌畸形患病率超 11% 70%、消费者审美意识提升+儿童早矫理念提升+消费意愿增强+隐形正畸较传统正 0 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度 教育 2024 年 06 月 20 日 教育行业专题:国内各学段教育 教育 优于大市(维持) 的人口基本面讨论 投资要点: 证券分析师 李旭东 资格编号:S0120524020002 邮箱:lixd@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 教育 沪深300 -51% -43% -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《招录市场需求强劲,华图中公扬 帆起航》,2024.4.2 引言:近年来人们对于新生人口下滑的讨论热烈,这种担忧在教育行业更加明显。 根据教育行业规模=人口*渗透率*客单价的公式,在需求刚性导致的普遍高渗透率 以及公益属性导致的涨价难度大背景下,人口因素无疑是最重要的变量。然而单 纯观察新生人口指标,就下教育行业未来成长悲观的结论,忽视了国内教育行业各 学段结构复杂以及政策主观能动性强的现实。本文将对学前教育、义务教育、高中、 高等教育、硕士等多个阶段单独研究,探讨各自人口基本面的趋势以及结构性特点。 育龄妇女人数及生育意愿降低,共同导致新生人口下,多年来国内教育成就显著 ...

大家好欢迎参加德方传媒互联网海外笑谈科技互联AI视频测评目前所有诊位找清楚于精英状态现在开始播报免责声明免责声明本次电话会议仅服务于德方证券研究所客户不构成投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险 德邦证券不对因使用本次内容所导致的任何损失承担任何责任未经德邦证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制刊载转载转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利市场有风险投资需谨慎 各位同学大家晚上好我是德邦证券传媒互联网行业的首席马校今天晚上我们非常荣幸跟大家抽一个晚上的时间做一个AI的产业进展的汇报包括参会的还有我的助理王明清同学然后我们这次产业的汇报主要分为几个方面主要就是 AI视频然后我们进行了一些这个测评那整个的AI应用这一块包括了这个DBT这个文声文字包括了声图片包括了音频视频其实视频是一个比较综合的东西所以我们就是选择视频来跟大家做一些这个汇报那尤其是当下目前这个市场观点下我们觉得在当下这个时机AI应用大家应该是可以跟踪起来了 因为AI应用这块的赔率我们觉得是足够了的如果横向对比TMT各个行业的话包括AI的PC硬件包括光模块算力包括 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Bona Film Group (001330.SZ) with a "Buy" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the market [1][16]. Core Insights - Bona Film Group is recognized as a rare and high-quality producer of mainstream commercial films in China, possessing rich industry resources, top-notch production capabilities, and precise film positioning. The company has a substantial content reserve, which is expected to enhance project stability and performance certainty. Additionally, the integration of AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) is anticipated to provide long-term growth potential [1][16]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The average PE ratio for comparable companies from 2024 to 2026 is projected at 28/23/20 times, while Bona's PE is forecasted at 27/16/15 times for the same period [1]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 2,976 million, 3,667 million, and 3,852 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 85.1%, 23.2%, and 5.1% [3][16]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 306 million, 513 million, and 566 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 155.3%, 67.8%, and 10.3% respectively [3][16]. Business Model and Competitive Advantage - Bona Film Group has established a full industry chain layout, covering investment, distribution, cinema lines, and theaters, which enhances its competitive advantage. The company has been actively expanding its cinema business, with a total of 127 cinemas under its brand by the end of 2023, marking a net increase of 9 cinemas year-on-year [16][24]. - The company has a strong track record in producing mainstream films, having achieved significant box office success with titles such as "The Battle at Lake Changjin" and "Operation Red Sea," which have collectively grossed over 230 billion yuan [16][43]. AIGC Integration - The company is exploring the application of AIGC technologies in various aspects of film production, including content generation and post-production assistance. The upcoming film "Legend" will utilize Deepfake technology to recreate the appearance of actor Jackie Chan at a younger age, showcasing the company's commitment to innovation in filmmaking [16][24].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Nanshan Aluminum with a "Buy" rating [1] Core Views - Nanshan Aluminum has a complete aluminum industry chain, with high-end products accounting for 14% of total sales in 2023, up by more than 1 percentage point YoY [1] - The company's high-end products contributed 30% of total aluminum product gross profit in 2023, an increase of nearly 9 percentage points YoY [1] - The company is expanding its alumina capacity in Indonesia, with a total planned capacity of 5.4 million tons, and is focusing on high-end products such as automotive sheets, aviation sheets, and battery aluminum foil [2] - The report forecasts revenue of RMB 31.848 billion, RMB 34.177 billion, and RMB 36.733 billion for 2024-2026, with net profits of RMB 3.84 billion, RMB 4.196 billion, and RMB 4.615 billion, respectively [2] Upstream Operations - Nanshan Aluminum has a total of 3.4 million tons of alumina production capacity, including 1.4 million tons domestically and 2 million tons in Indonesia [2] - The company plans to build an additional 2 million tons of alumina capacity in Indonesia, bringing the total planned capacity to 5.4 million tons [2] - The alumina market is expected to remain tight in 2024, supporting high alumina prices [2] Downstream Operations - The company is focusing on high-end products such as automotive sheets, aviation sheets, and battery aluminum foil [2] - Automotive sheet demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14% from 2020 to 2026, with the company having 200,000 tons of in-production capacity and 200,000 tons under construction [2] - Aviation sheet demand is expected to grow significantly, with global aircraft deliveries projected to increase by 86.34% from 2022 to 2041 [2] - Battery aluminum foil demand is expected to reach 542,500 tons by 2025, with the company having 91,000 tons of aluminum foil capacity, including 21,000 tons dedicated to battery foil [2] Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenue growth of 10.4%, 7.3%, and 7.5% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth of 10.5%, 9.3%, and 10.0%, respectively [2] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 11.53x, 10.55x, and 9.59x for 2024-2026, lower than the average PE of comparable companies [2] Industry Outlook - The global automotive sheet market is expected to grow significantly, driven by the electrification of vehicles [2] - The aviation industry is expected to see strong growth in aircraft deliveries, driving demand for aviation aluminum sheets [2] - The battery aluminum foil market is expected to expand rapidly, supported by the growth of the new energy vehicle industry [2]

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call is related to 德邦证券 (Debon Securities) [1] Core Points and Arguments - The call serves as a platform for Debon Securities to communicate with its clients [1] - A disclaimer was provided indicating that the call does not constitute investment advice and that participants should make their own investment decisions and bear the associated risks [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The meeting is specifically tailored for clients of Debon Securities Research Institute [1]