2024年09月20日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 计算机 ◆ 信创:政府+行业应用全面推广取得积极进展 报告摘要 ◆ 全球信息系统安全事件频发,信创产品基础保障作用明显 据央视新闻客户端 9 月 18 日消息,黎巴嫩公共卫生部最新更正伤亡人数称,当地 时间 9月17日下午,黎巴嫩全国多地发生的寻呼机爆炸事件已确认造成9人死亡,约 2750 人受伤。此前,7月19日 CrowdStrike 公司的安全软件更新引发"全球大宕机", 微软视窗系统出现"蓝屏"致航空、医疗、传媒、金融、零售、物流等多个行业受到影 响,微软估计 CrowdStrike 的更新影响到 850 万台 Windows 设备。然而,我国由于 政企及关键行业用户已可以选择自主品牌的电子信息产品,在微软设备大规模宕机事件 中并未受到波及。随着现代信息技术的快速发展,减少外部依赖、实现核心信息技术 自主可控，是保障社会基础信息系统安全运行的基本保障。 ◆ 安全可靠测评结果推动信创产品市场化、规模化、常态化应用，相关 信创产品逐步进入市场充分竞争阶段 当前,中国信息安全测评中心已发布两期安全可靠测评结果。通过对产品及其研发 单位的核心技术、安全 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3][56]. Core Insights - The report highlights that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, there is an expectation for improved consumer sentiment, particularly in sectors with strong consumption attributes like pet food [3][8]. - The report notes a recent adjustment in the pig market following the Mid-Autumn Festival, with a national average price of 18.62 yuan/kg as of September 20, reflecting a decrease of 3.2% from before the holiday and 6.8% from the beginning of the month [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the pet food sector, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 17% for pet staple food, 15% for nutritional products, and 25% for snacks by 2026 [8][16]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenyuan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector decreased by 3.26%, ranking 29th out of 31 industries [1][3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.05%, and the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.94% [1]. Livestock Industry - The average daily slaughter volume for sample enterprises was 156,114 heads, a week-on-week increase of 9.02% [3]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter was 125.97 kg, showing a slight week-on-week increase [3]. Pet Food Sector - The report identifies leading domestic pet food companies such as Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Pei Ti Co. as key investment targets due to their strong market positions and growth potential [3][16]. - The pet food industry is expected to maintain rapid growth, supported by brand strategies and market expansion efforts by leading companies [8][16]. Grain and Crop Industry - The report discusses the expected increase in global wheat supply and consumption for the 2024/25 period, with a projected supply increase of 1.5 million tons [14]. - It also notes adjustments in global rice supply and demand, with an increase in supply by 300,000 tons due to higher initial stocks in India [14]. Company Insights - The report mentions that Muyuan Foods aims to achieve a breeding cost of 13 yuan/kg by the end of the year, reflecting a continuous decline in costs [22]. - Dongrui Co. has expanded its scale and secured a quota of over 200,000 heads for supply to Hong Kong [26].

联系电话：010-59219558 传真：010-59562637 2024年09月20 E 证券研究报告|行业研究|军工行业深度报告 国防军工 投资评级 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------| | | | | | | | | | | | 高端锻铸行业深度报告:锻大国重器,铸国防长城 | | | 维持评级 | | 报告摘要 | | 行业走势图 | | | ◆ 高端锻铸优势显著，是高端装备关键零部件制造的主流工艺 | | | | | 高端锻铸工艺主要是指面向高端装备难加工材料零部件高效制造 | ...

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Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 50 basis points (BP) to a target range of 4.75%-5.00%[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2024 was raised by 0.4 percentage points (PCTS) to 4.4%[3] - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 was reduced to 2.0%[3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The PCE inflation forecast for 2024 was revised down from 2.6% to 2.3%, a decrease of 0.3 PCTS[4] - Core PCE inflation forecast for 2024 was adjusted down from 2.8% to 2.6%, a reduction of 0.2 PCTS[4] - The long-term federal funds rate forecast was increased from 2.8% to 2.9%[4] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock indices initially rose but later fell due to hawkish comments from Powell[2] - The market anticipates an additional 75 BP rate cut within the year, with a majority of officials suggesting only 1-2 more cuts of 25 BP each[5][12] - Risks of overly optimistic market expectations regarding future rate cuts were highlighted, indicating potential volatility in capital markets[5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.75%-5.00%[3] - This marks the first rate cut since the tightening cycle began in March 2022[3] - The Fed maintained a redemption scale of $250 billion for U.S. Treasury securities and $35 billion for agency debt and MBS[3] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The Fed revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 2.0%[6] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2024 was raised by 0.4 percentage points to 4.4%[6] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2024 was lowered from 2.6% to 2.3%, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points[6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock indices initially rose, with the Nasdaq gaining over 1% during trading[3] - However, after hawkish comments from Powell, major U.S. indices closed lower, and the dollar index rebounded[3] Group 4: Future Policy Uncertainty - Powell indicated that the Fed's future policy path remains uncertain, with no preset course for rate adjustments[7] - The dot plot showed that 9 out of 19 officials expect cumulative rate cuts of no more than 75 basis points in 2024, while 10 officials anticipate cuts of at least 100 basis points[7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts can be categorized into recessionary and preventive cuts based on the economic context[3] - The current economic indicators suggest that the upcoming rate cut is more likely to be preventive, as the U.S. economy shows signs of soft landing despite some pressures[3][59] - Historical data indicates that during preventive rate cuts, U.S. stock markets tend to perform positively in the month leading up to the cut, with a 100% success rate[3] Group 2: Impact on A-shares - A-shares are expected to be indirectly influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, primarily driven by domestic economic fundamentals[4][8] - Historically, A-shares have outperformed emerging markets during Fed rate cuts, indicating strong allocation value[8] - A-shares tend to lag behind Hong Kong stocks post-rate cuts, but often outperform emerging markets[3][4] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The normalization of the U.S. Treasury yield curve suggests a decrease in recession risks, which may positively impact market sentiment[3][72] - The Chinese government is expected to continue implementing macroeconomic policies to stimulate growth, which could lead to a recovery in A-shares[8] - Consumer sectors such as food and beverage, and beauty care are projected to outperform the market in the months following a rate cut, based on historical performance[8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Taihe New Materials (002254) is upgraded to "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue for H1 2024 reached 1.95 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.55% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 117 million yuan, a significant decrease of 45.4% [1] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 990 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.0%, with a net profit of 92 million yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year and 267% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The report notes that while the spandex industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, it is also facing a peak in production capacity, leading to a decline in profitability for some companies [1] - The report indicates that the company's gross margin improved to 18.1% in the reporting period, despite a decline in the spandex business gross margin due to falling product prices [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.95 billion yuan and a net profit of 117 million yuan, with basic EPS of 0.13 yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 40 million yuan [1] - In Q2 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 990 million yuan and a net profit of 92 million yuan, with a gross margin of 18.1% [1][4] Industry Analysis - The spandex industry is at a peak production capacity, with an increase of 55,000 tons in capacity in H1 2024 and additional capacity expected in H2 2024 [1] - The report mentions that the price of upstream raw material PETMG has declined, leading to a downward trend in spandex prices [1] Future Outlook - The report projects that the company will achieve revenues of 4.22 billion yuan in 2024, 5.04 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.04 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.5%, 19.8%, and 39.8% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 314 million yuan in 2024, 409 million yuan in 2025, and 572 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -5.77%, 30.42%, and 39.76% respectively [4]

高于固投和制造业投资增速；其次是我国产业继续升级趋势之下高技术制造业投资 对整体制造业投资的拉动。前 8 月高技术制造业投资增速为+9.6%,依然高于制造 业投资总体增速，对制造业投资起到较大带动作用。 2024年09月17日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观点评 增量稳增长政策必要性提升 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|-----------| | | | | | | 核心观点 | 主要数据 | | | | 从 8 月各项经济及金融数据看,稳增长政策必要性进一步提升:8 月金融数据 | 上证指数 | | 2704.0896 | | 显示当前经济融资需求依然较弱,新增社融、人民币贷款均同 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that Harris performed well in the first debate against Trump, gaining market recognition for her policy proposals and adaptability [4][9] - Following the debate, Harris's probability of winning increased from 53% to 57%, while Trump's dropped from 52% to 47% according to PredictIt [4][10] - The economic policies proposed by both candidates continue to favor a loose fiscal stance, but their approaches differ significantly, with Harris's policies being less stimulative compared to Trump's [4][12] Domestic Policy Implications - If Harris wins, it may negatively impact China's semiconductor, new energy, and artificial intelligence sectors, but could alleviate market concerns regarding export chains and promote domestic self-sufficiency policies [4][14] - Conversely, a Trump victory could negatively affect export chains but stimulate domestic demand policies [4][14] - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve's shift towards easing monetary policy will help alleviate external constraints on China's macroeconomic policies, leading to potential domestic demand recovery [4][14] Industry Performance and Recommendations - The report notes a divergence within domestic demand sectors, with industries related to equipment upgrades and trade-in policies, such as home appliances, machinery, and automobiles, showing improved performance in Q2 2024 [5][15] - The military industry is expected to see an increase in mergers and acquisitions following the "K8" policy, which encourages consolidation among listed companies [5][26] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on policies that boost domestic demand and self-sufficiency, with key events to monitor including the Federal Reserve's September meeting and developments in the U.S. presidential election [5][26]