证券研究报告 食品饮料 报告日期：2024年05月 13日 消费温和复苏，五粮液 °和 °新品上市 45 68 ——食品饮料行业周报 华龙证券研究所 摘要： 消费行业呈现弱复苏态势。上市公司一季报全部披露完毕，从财报表 投资评级：推荐（维持） 现来看，食品饮料行业业绩分化，整体利润增速快于营收增速，2024Q1 最近一年走势 营收增速环比好于2023Q4。2024年一季度，食品饮料行业营业收入 3,120.48亿元，同比增长6.71%，归母净利润812.68亿元，同比增长 15.97%；扣非后归母净利润779.89亿元，同比增长14.32%。2024Q1 整体表现较好主因消费复苏以及春节时间错配，2024年备货主要集中 在一季度。2024全年来看，食品饮料行业的主旋律仍然是消费复苏。 白酒：上周（05 月 06 日-05 月 10 日）五粮液宣布 45°和 68°两款 产品焕新上市，45°产品定位“中国高端中度白酒引领者”，将引领 中度酒消费提档升级，而 68°产品定位“中国超高度白酒典范之作” （引自：酒业家）。一季报白酒业绩增速基本符合预期，部分酒企有 分析师：王芳 超预期增速，短期受宏观经济影响，预计宴 ...

证券研究报告 机械设备 报告日期：2024年05月 13日 月挖机内销同比 超预期，持续推荐工程机械板块 4 +13.3% ——机械设备行业周报 华龙证券研究所 摘要：  4月挖机内销同比+13.3%超预期，持续推荐工程机械板块。2024 投资评级：推荐（维持） 年4月销售各类挖掘机18822台，同比增长0.27%，其中国内10782 最近一年走势 台，同比增长13.3%；出口8040台，同比下降13.2%。内销优于 此前 CME 预期，国内市场恢复预期较强。住建部印发通知，明 确提出更新淘汰使用超过 10 年以上的工程机械设备。10年以上 主要指国二及以下标准的非道路机械，保有量占比较高，政策刺 激下更新周期有望提前启动，工程机械行业需求预期边际改善。 持续关注：徐工机械（000425.SZ）、三一重工（600031.SH）、中 联重科（000157.SZ）。  核电厂稳压器先导式安全阀打破垄断，关注核电设备投资机会。 2023年5月8日国内首台核电厂稳压器先导式安全阀，在成都顺 分析师：景丹阳 利完成全部鉴定试验，标志着我国完全掌握该核电阀门关键技术， 打破垄断，具备向核电机组自主供货的能力。核电作为 ...

宏观研究报告 PPI 同比降幅收窄，环比有所下降。4 月工业生产继续恢复，部分行 业需求阶段性回落，全国 PPI 环比有所下降，同比降幅收窄。从同比看，4 月 PPI 下降 2.5%，降幅比 3 月收窄 0.3 个百分点。其中，生产资料价格下 降 3.1%，降幅收窄 0.4 个百分点；生活资料价格下降 0.9%，降幅收窄 0.1 个百分点。4 月制造业 PMI 生产指数较 3 月上升 0.7 个百分点为 52.9%，生 产资料的降幅收窄幅度强于生活资料，侧面反映出生产端的恢复动能好于 需求端。从环比看，4 月 PPI 下降 0.2%，降幅比 3 月扩大 0.1 个百分点。 1-4 月平均，PPI 比 2023 年同期下降 2.7%，PPIRM 下降 3.3%。 4 月 CPI 同比延续回升态势，清明小长假消费需求释放与非食品涨价 拉升尤其是个别消费品种的拉动作用明显，食品价格依旧是拖累项，但积 极因素是猪肉价格涨幅已对 CPI 同比拉动自 2023 年 5 月以来产生了正向 作用，后期 CPI 走势仍需消费品与服务双双共振带动价格水平走入温和区 间。PPI 方面，基建投资与设备更新改造持续推进，工业品出厂价格 ...

证券研究报告 建筑材料 报告日期：2024年05月 12日 多城全面取消住房限购，相关建材板块估值有望修复 ——建筑材料行业周报 华龙证券研究所 摘要：  建材行业：近期，多城全面取消住房限购政策，有望提振动房地 投资评级：推荐（维持） 产市场需求预期。房地产需求预期提升有望带动相关建材需求改 最近一年走势 善，同时有望推动建材板块估值修复，维持建材行业"推荐"评级。  玻璃行业：本周国内浮法玻璃现货市场成交重心继续下滑。部分 区域受产线热修及放水冷修产量减少，以及部分中下游节后补库 带动下，部分区域企业出货较高，库存去化，亦有区域受产量释 放、需求弱及资金等因素影响出货不畅，各地企业价格亦呈涨跌 互现现象。后市来看，下周预计有三条产线放水，涉及产能 2400 吨/日，涉及点火产线一条，涉及产能 1000 吨/日，产量上或有 减少，但供应端仍处于高位运行。需求上看，下游资金回款难的 问题依然存在，加上多地区域订单增量无明显改善下，下游采购 分析师：彭棋 仍多为刚需，不排除企业为进一步去库出台相应政策，价格方面 或趋于灵活。个股方面关注行业龙头旗滨集团（601636.SH），金 执业证书编号：S023052 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company, XCMG Machinery, has demonstrated resilience in performance despite a slight decline in revenue in 2023, achieving a revenue of 92.848 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.03%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 23.51% to 5.326 billion yuan [1][12]. - The report highlights the positive impact of ongoing government policies aimed at infrastructure investment and the recovery of the real estate sector, which are expected to boost demand for construction machinery [1][21]. - The company's international expansion has been fruitful, with overseas revenue reaching 37.22 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 33.7%, accounting for over 40% of total revenue [1][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - XCMG Machinery, established in 1993, has become a leading player in the engineering machinery industry, ranking third globally with a sales revenue of 13.407 billion USD in 2022 [7][8]. - The company has a diverse product portfolio, including cranes, earth-moving machinery, concrete machinery, and road machinery, with several products holding leading positions in the domestic and global markets [9][10]. 2. Domestic Demand - The report indicates that the engineering machinery sector is at a cyclical low but is expected to recover, driven by government policies and infrastructure investments [16][21]. - In 2023, domestic sales of key machinery types, such as excavators and cranes, showed signs of stabilization, with a decrease in sales volume narrowing compared to previous years [19][20]. 3. Export Performance - The company has maintained a strong trend in international sales, with excavator exports reaching 109,453 units in 2022, a 59.96% increase, although a slight decline was noted in 2023 due to high base effects [28]. - The report emphasizes the growing recognition of domestic brands in international markets, with XCMG and SANY among the top players [29][36]. 4. Financial Forecasts - The financial projections for the company indicate a steady growth trajectory, with expected net profits of 6.579 billion yuan, 7.634 billion yuan, and 8.916 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 23.5%, 16%, and 16.8% [2][12]. - The report notes an improvement in profit margins, with a gross margin of 22.38% and a net margin of 5.64% in 2023, both showing year-on-year increases [12][13].

2024Q1 扣非业绩高增，三梯次战略逐步落地 华龙证券研究所 分析师：杨阳 执业证书编号：S0230523110001 邮箱：yangy@hlzqgs.com 市场数据 2024 年 04 月 25 日 当前价格（元） 27.11 52 周价格区间（元） 15.04-42.50 总市值（百万元） 9,205.48 流通市值（百万元） 8,657.19 总股本（万股） 33,956.05 流通股（万股） 31,933.58 近一月换手（%） 57.30 2024Q1 扣非归母净利润同比+74.7%，维持研发高投入驱动成长。 公司 2024Q1 归母净利润同比+74.7%，主要原因原因有二：一是 毛利率同比+4.9pct，或系销量增加摊薄成本；二是销售期间费用 率同比-2.1pct，其中销售费用率/管理费用率/研发费用率/财务费 用 率 同 比 +0.1pct/-0.5pct/+0.6pct/-2.3pct 。 其 中 研 发 费 用 同 比 +34.5%至 0.12 亿元，公司维持对新能源汽车零部件等研发项目高 投入，相关产品有望落地支撑公司业绩增长。 事件： 观点： 风险提示：宏观经济不及预期；产品定点不及 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [13] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.162 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.65%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 154 million yuan, a decrease of 12.62% year-on-year [13] - The company is actively integrating and optimizing its industrial chain, which is expected to lay a solid foundation for long-term development [13] - The company has seen significant growth in its nuclear energy sector, with new orders amounting to 517 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 154.60% year-on-year [13] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 5.162 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.4 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.2% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 154 million yuan in 2023 to 258 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 14.0% [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 5.0% in 2023 to 6.7% in 2026 [6] Business Structure and Profitability - The company’s main business segments include traditional energy equipment (54.93%), new energy equipment (17.59%), and energy-saving and environmental protection equipment (7.31%) [13] - The gross profit margins for these segments are reported at 13.76%, 13.57%, and 16.81% respectively [13] - The company has increased its R&D expenditure, which now accounts for a higher percentage of total expenses, indicating a focus on technological innovation [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (first coverage) [1] Core Views - The company achieved steady revenue growth in 2023, with a total revenue of 12.46 billion yuan, representing an 18.25% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.56 billion yuan, up 27.75% year-on-year [1] - The company has set a target for new orders of 20.6 billion yuan in 2024, which is a 25% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The company is expected to benefit from domestic investment growth and overseas equipment renewal and new construction demands [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company generated revenue from various segments: switchgear (5.58 billion yuan), coils (2.75 billion yuan), reactive power compensation (1.85 billion yuan), smart devices (1.00 billion yuan), and engineering contracting (0.92 billion yuan) [1] - The company’s overseas revenue reached 2.16 billion yuan in 2023, a 15.71% increase year-on-year, with overseas business accounting for 17% of total revenue [1] - The company’s financial forecasts for 2024-2026 predict net profits of 2.08 billion yuan, 2.54 billion yuan, and 3.07 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.7, 19.4, and 16.1 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with initial coverage [1][2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.63 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 609 million yuan, up 35.3% [1]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 55.2%, and a net profit of 220 million yuan, reflecting a 66.2% increase compared to the same period last year [1]. - The company has a strong order backlog and is expected to benefit from overseas expansion and new products, particularly domain control products, which are projected to drive growth [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are as follows: - 2024: Revenue of 8.62 billion yuan, net profit of 862 million yuan - 2025: Revenue of 10.93 billion yuan, net profit of 1.09 billion yuan - 2026: Revenue of 13.34 billion yuan, net profit of 1.33 billion yuan [2][3]. - The projected P/E ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 31.2, 24.6, and 20.1 respectively [2][3]. Revenue Growth and Business Segments - The company’s revenue growth in Q4 2023 was driven by strong performance across various business segments, including: - Lighting control systems: +49.7% - Motor control systems: +60.5% - Energy management systems: +179.1% - Automotive electronics: +8.4% [1]. - The company has secured 73 new projects from major clients like BMW and Volkswagen, with an expected lifetime sales volume exceeding 100 million units [1]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s net profit margin for Q4 2023 was significantly higher than revenue growth, attributed to excellent cost control, with a decrease in expense ratios [1]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 improved by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better cost management and increased production efficiency [1]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is actively expanding its overseas presence, with plans to establish production facilities in Europe and North America by the end of 2024 [1]. - The introduction of high-value new products such as chassis controllers and domain controllers is expected to sustain high growth rates, benefiting from the accelerating trend of automotive intelligence [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次覆盖) [14][15] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.881 billion yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.58% [14] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 546 million yuan, an increase of 7.73% year-on-year [14] - The company is expected to maintain robust growth, with projected net profits of 689 million yuan, 831 million yuan, and 980 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [14][15] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 2.515 billion yuan - 2023A: 2.881 billion yuan - 2024E: 3.549 billion yuan (growth rate: 23.16%) - 2025E: 4.177 billion yuan (growth rate: 17.69%) - 2026E: 4.920 billion yuan (growth rate: 17.80%) [3][16] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: 506 million yuan - 2023A: 546 million yuan - 2024E: 689 million yuan (growth rate: 26.24%) - 2025E: 831 million yuan (growth rate: 20.63%) - 2026E: 980 million yuan (growth rate: 17.92%) [3][16] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 0.88 yuan - 2023A: 0.94 yuan - 2024E: 1.19 yuan - 2025E: 1.44 yuan - 2026E: 1.70 yuan [3][16] - Valuation Ratios: - P/E ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are projected to be 20.4x, 16.9x, and 14.3x respectively [15][16]