2024年 05月 26日 强于大市(维持) [证T券a研bl究e报_告In•行d业u研st究r•y汽In车f o] 汽车行业周报（5.20-5.24） 车市政策持续发力，5 月新能源渗透率预计 46.7% 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心  行[Ta情bl回e_顾S：um上m周ar，y]S W汽车板块下跌4.2%，沪深300下跌 2.1%。估值上，截 分析师：郑连声 止 5月 24日收盘，汽车行业PE（TTM）为20倍，较前一周下跌4.3%。 执业证号：S1250522040001  投资建议：乘用车方面，5 月乘联会预测狭义乘用车零售 165.0 万辆，环比 电话：010-57758531 邮箱：zlans@swsc.com.cn +7.5%，同比-5.3%。随着国家“以旧换新”的政策落地实施、各地相应政策措 施出台与跟进，有益于车市逐步走强。5月 15日，工业和信息化部办公厅等印 分析师：冯安琪 发《五部门关于开展2024年新能源汽车下乡活动的通知》，公布2024年新能 执业证号：S1250524050003 源汽车下乡活动车型。在以旧换新政策以及新能源汽车下乡活动的推动下，新 电话：021-5835 ...

[2T0a2b4le年_I0n5du月str2y5In日fo ] 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业周报（5.20-5.24） 积极把握医药回调良机 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心  [行Ta情bl回e_顾Su：m本m周ar医y]药 生物指数下跌3.74%，跑输沪深300指数 1.66个百分点， [分Ta析bl师e_：Au杜th向or阳] 行业涨跌幅排名第20。2024年初以来至今，医药行业下跌12.78%，跑输沪深 执业证号：S1250520030002 300 指数 17.75 个百分点，行业涨跌幅排名第 28。本周医药行业估值水平 电话：021-68416017 (PE-TTM)为 26倍，相对全部A股溢价率为85.44% (-8.76pp)，相对剔除银行 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 后全部 A 股溢价率为 36.93% (-3.69pp)，相对沪深 300 溢价率为 127.63% 联系人：陈辰 (-16.08pp)。本周相对表现最好的是中药Ⅲ，下跌3.1%。 电话：021-68416017  骨科关节国采续标各企业报价价差较小，基本贴近规则二复活价。初次集 ...

[2T0a2b4l年e_I0n5d月ust2ry6In日fo ] 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（0520-0526） 特斯拉 6 月召开 24 年度股东大会， 哈默纳科预计 25 财年人形机器人收入占比达到 10% 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心  行[Ta情bl回e_顾Su：m本m周ar（y]5 月 20日-5月26日）机器人指数跑输大盘。中证机器人指 [分Ta析bl师e_：Au邰th桂or龙] 数下跌4.3%，跑输沪深300指数约2.2个百分点，跑输创业板指约1.8个百分 执业证号：S1250521050002 点；国证机器人指数下跌 4.2%，跑输沪深 300指数约 2.1个百分点，跑输创 电话：021-58351893 业板指约1.7个百分点。 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn  特斯拉预计 6月 13日召开 2024年度股东大会，预计发布 Optimus新的进展。 分析师：周鑫雨 股东大会预告片中多次出现人形机器人 Optimus，此前马斯克曾在推特发布 执业证号：S1250523070008 电话：021-58351893 “Optimus will ...

【集采专题】第七批落地，降价趋于理性，首次引入备供 2022-07-21 【集采专题】第六批落地，规则逐步温和完善 2021-12-30 【集采专题】集采重塑仿制药竞争格局，重视创新及医保免疫方向 2020-12-15 【中药】中药集采专题：中成药集采逐步扩面，集采规则相对温和 2022-12-16 【中药】中药配方颗粒专题：国标切换加速，行业迎来发展拐点 【中药】政策边际向好，三维度看中药细分领域 【中药】"穿越医保"主线之——中药消费品迎来三大机遇(行业篇)2021-12-27 【中药】中药创新药八问，行业长期成长可期 2022-02-13 14）5 月 21 日，泰恩康全资子公司山东华铂凯盛生物科技有限公司收到国家药监局签 发的枸橼酸西地那非口崩片《药品注册证书》和甲磺酸雷沙吉兰片《药品注册证书》。 【基金持仓】2021Q4：医药占比持续下降 2022-01-28 【基金持仓】2021Q3：医药仓位小幅下降，CXO 板块占比增加 2021-11-03 【基金持仓】2021Q2：医药仓位持续回升，核心资产继续分化 2021-07-23 【基金持仓】2021Q1：医药仓位略有回升，核心资产有所分化 2021 ...

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青霉素、咖啡因价格环比下滑，肝素提价明显 ——原料药板块2024M1-4跟踪报告 西南证券研究发展中心 2024年5月 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 核心观点 2024年原料药最新报价及行情回顾（报价截至2024年4月30 日）：  价格上涨品种：大宗原料药中，维生素类：维生素B1在4月价格为167.5元/千克(环比+6.3%，同比+45.7%)，维生 素B2价格为104元/千克(环比+2%，同比+20.2%)，维生素A价格为87元/千克(环比+1.8%，同比-3.3%)，维生素E ...

Group 1 - The overall A-share market increased by 0.06% this week, with the PE(TTM) decreasing by 0.02 to 17.35, and the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year percentiles changing to 52.7%, 37.7%, and 37.9% respectively [9][32] - The PB(LF) remained unchanged at 1.46, with the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year percentiles changing to 29.4%, 9.7%, and 5.9% respectively [9][32] - The risk premium for the overall A-share market increased by 0.01 percentage points to 3.38%, which is above the historical average plus one standard deviation, placing it at the 92.6th percentile over the past five years [9][39] Group 2 - Among major indices, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.62%, with a PE(TTM) increase of 0.05 to 10.61, and the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year percentiles rising to 100%, 69.5%, and 64.8% respectively [9][22] - The Northbound 50 index experienced the largest decline of 1.89%, with a PE(TTM) decrease of 0.61 to 31.88, and the 1-year and 3-year percentiles rising to 94.1% and 97.1% respectively [9][34] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 3.11%, with a PE(TTM) rise of 0.32 to 10.04, and the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year percentiles changing to 100%, 60.4%, and 52.7% respectively [9][22] Group 3 - The top five performing sectors this week were real estate (+12.65%), building materials (+5.03%), construction decoration (+3%), banking (+2.94%), and light industry manufacturing (+2.76%) [9][46] - The sectors with the largest declines included household appliances (-2.36%), pharmaceuticals (-2.12%), coal (-2.1%), automobiles (-1.76%), and electric equipment (-1.68%) [9][46] - In terms of PE(TTM) changes, real estate (+2.28), building materials (+0.97), and light industry manufacturing (+0.69) saw the largest weekly increases, while defense and military (-0.98) and pharmaceuticals (-0.7) experienced the largest declines [9][46] Group 4 - Among the 25 popular sectors, the top gainers were low-altitude economy (+1.26%), liquor (+0.8%), cloud computing (+0.68%), and metaverse (+0.68%), while the largest decliners were CRO (-4.06%), energy storage (-3.18%), innovative drugs (-2.76%), photovoltaics (-2.52%), and power batteries (-2.16%) [9][54] - The sectors with the highest PE(TTM) weekly increases included aerospace and military (+0.62), metaverse (+0.47), and cloud computing (+0.21), while ChatGPT (-13.5) and semiconductors (-1.76) saw the largest declines [9][54]

Group 1 - The overall A-share market experienced a slight revenue increase of 0.1% year-on-year in Q1 2024, while net profit decreased by 4.6% year-on-year [9][63][101] - The main board's performance remains under pressure, with a net profit decline of 2.5% year-on-year in Q1 2024, while the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board showed significant recovery in profitability [10][159] - The gross profit margin for the overall A-share market increased by 0.32 percentage points to 17.7%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8% [79][106] Group 2 - The TMT sector showed the highest revenue growth at 11.5% in Q1 2024, indicating a recovery in this area [175] - The public utilities sector experienced a remarkable net profit growth of 46.9% in Q1 2024, the highest among all sectors [175] - The financial and real estate sectors are facing challenges, with the financial sector's performance at its lowest level since 2018 [175][178] Group 3 - The cash collection ratio for sales improved, indicating better overall cash flow for enterprises, with the ratio rising to 104.8% for the overall A-share market [81] - The asset turnover ratio continues to decline, suggesting that the economic recovery's impact on revenue has been partially released, but there is still room for improvement [78][105] - The overall profitability remains to be improved, with the net profit margin showing a downward trend despite some sectors experiencing recovery [2][30][63]

Core Viewpoints - The domestic new energy industry has entered a phase of overcapacity, leading to a significant decline in product prices and profit compression across the supply chain, resulting in a dual decline in earnings and valuations in the equity market [1] - The lithium battery industry chain is expected to see a wave of excess returns in the second half of the year, driven by cost reductions from falling lithium carbonate prices, strong demand for power batteries, and capacity control policies, similar to the "recessionary profit" period in the steel industry in 2014 [1] Industry Analysis Steel Industry Overcapacity Cycle (2013-2015) - The steel industry experienced five distinct phases during the overcapacity cycle from 2013 to 2015, with varying performance relative to the broader market [13] - Phase 1 (Jan 2013 - Feb 2014): Steel underperformed due to macroeconomic and industry pressures [4] - Phase 2 (Mar 2014 - Jun 2014): Steel performance was in line with the market as capacity reduction expectations began to emerge [13] - Phase 3 (Jul 2014 - Jan 2015): Steel rebounded sharply due to macroeconomic easing and "recessionary profit" improvements [13] - Phase 4 (Feb 2015 - Aug 2015): Steel performance was volatile, largely in line with the market [4] - Phase 5 (Sep 2015 - Dec 2015): Steel underperformed again due to renewed macroeconomic pressures and increased supply from overseas iron ore producers [134] - During the overcapacity cycle, the steel industry's pricing was influenced by alternating factors of demand and supply, with different segments (e.g., special steel vs. ordinary steel) showing varying levels of resilience [14] Lithium Battery Industry - The current lithium battery industry chain shows similarities to the steel industry's "recessionary profit" period in 2014, with potential for excess returns in the second half of the year [1] - The lithium battery supply chain is structurally similar to the steel industry, with upstream mining, midstream processing (e.g., cathode materials), and downstream battery production [62] Market Performance Steel Industry - In Phase 1 (Jan 2013 - Feb 2014), special steel stocks outperformed ordinary steel stocks, with companies like Yulong Co (+69%) and Jiuli Special Materials (+58%) leading the gains [81] - In Phase 3 (Jul 2014 - Jan 2015), the steel sector rose 87%, significantly outperforming the broader market, driven by expectations of improved real estate demand [93] - In Phase 5 (Sep 2015 - Dec 2015), steel stocks experienced a sharp decline, with special steel stocks (-17%) outperforming ordinary steel stocks (-26%) [142] Lithium Battery Industry - Lithium mining stocks began to decouple from lithium carbonate spot prices in late 2022, as investors anticipated a new capital expenditure cycle and increased supply [148] Supply and Demand Dynamics Steel Industry - The overcapacity in the steel industry was driven by a combination of increased supply from both domestic and international sources (e.g., Big 4 iron ore producers) and weakening demand from key sectors like real estate, home appliances, and automobiles [29] - Inventory pressures were most severe at the steel mill level, followed by midstream traders, with upstream iron ore inventories being the least pressured [78] Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry is currently experiencing a similar dynamic, with rapid demand growth post-pandemic leading to a surge in upstream mining capital expenditures, similar to the steel industry's expansion in 2012 [61] Policy Impact - A series of policies aimed at reducing steel capacity were introduced starting in September 2013, including the "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan," which targeted a reduction in crude steel capacity by 8% [52] - These policies led to market expectations of capacity reduction, which played a role in the steel industry's performance during the overcapacity cycle [52] Cost and Profit Analysis - In the steel industry, the 90th percentile production cost is a key support level for commodity prices, as seen in the case of copper and iron ore [152] - During the overcapacity cycle, steel mill profits were significantly compressed, with average simulated profits dropping to 350 yuan/ton in 2013, down from 880 yuan/ton in previous years [72] Capital Expenditure and Supply - The Big 4 iron ore producers (Vale, BHP, Rio Tinto, FMG) entered a new capital expenditure cycle in 2010, with capital expenditure growth peaking in Q4 2012 at a 58% year-on-year increase [11] - This increase in capital expenditure led to a significant expansion in iron ore supply, which contributed to the overcapacity in the steel industry [11] Inventory and Profitability - Inventory levels in the steel industry were a key indicator of profitability, with downstream inventory reductions in early 2014 leading to expectations of restocking and improved profitability [115] - However, if downstream demand did not materialize, the positive impact of low inventory levels on profitability would diminish [145]

Economic Performance - Industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year in the first four months, up 0.2 percentage points from January-March[15] - In April alone, industrial added value rose by 6.7%, a significant increase of 2.2 percentage points compared to March[15] - High-tech manufacturing saw an impressive growth of 11.3% in April, surpassing the previous month's 7.6%[15] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 143,401 billion yuan, growing by 4.2% year-on-year, but down 0.3 percentage points from January-March[17] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water supply) grew by 6.0%, a decline of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous period[7] - Manufacturing investment increased by 9.7% in the first four months, although this was a slight slowdown of 0.2 percentage points from January-March[21] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment fell by 9.8% year-on-year in the first four months, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points from January-March[18] - In April, the decline in real estate investment was 10.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to March[18] - New housing sales area dropped by 20.2% year-on-year in the first four months, with a further decline of 0.8 percentage points from January-March[18] Consumer Spending - Total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.1% year-on-year in the first four months, down 0.6 percentage points from January-March[23] - In April, retail sales increased by only 2.3%, marking a decline of 0.8 percentage points from March[24] - The retail sales of automobiles saw a significant drop, with a year-on-year decline of 5.6% in April[24]