[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 09 月 12 日 证券研究报告•2025 年中报点评 中牧股份（600195）农林牧渔 目标价：8.96 元（6 个月） 买入 （上调） 当前价：7.42 元 业绩显著修复，宠物业务与研发驱动新增长 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 6,017 | 6,569 | 7,190 | 7,798 | | 增长率 | 11.30% | 9.17% | 9.46% | 8.46% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 71 | 287 | 351 | 386 | | 增长率 | -82.41% | 305.33% | 22.12% | 9.99% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.07 | 0.28 | 0.34 | 0.38 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 1.29% | 5.03% | 5.90% | 6.22% | | PE | 96.69 | 26.37 | 21.6 ...

系统动力学模型研判市场系列之二 来自物理学的预警——LPPL模型如何提示历史行情主升浪顶部 西南证券研究院 策略研究团队 2025年9月 目录 1 如何用LPPL模型预测牛市主升浪行情的结束时点 1 2 历史成功预测牛市行情结束案例 3 历史成功预测熊市行情结束案例 4 LPPL模型对当下行情的预判 研究背景 面对水牛，市场普遍对标2006-2007和2014-2015，极致行情下如何提示行情破裂点？ 数据来源： 2 wind，西南证券整理 LPPL模型的核心思想——万物皆有"断裂点" 最终: 稍微再加一点点力，就达到了尺子的"临界点" ，它会"啪"的一声，瞬间、灾难性地完全断裂。 3 假设我们用手慢慢地掰弯一把塑料尺 初期: 稍微用力，尺子弯曲，但你一松手，它就恢复原状。这个系统是稳定的。 中期: 持续、缓慢地加大力量，尺子的弯曲程度越来越大。能量和压力正在尺子的内部不断积累，虽然表 面看起来还很平静。 末期 (临界点前): 就在尺子即将断裂的前一刻，会听到塑料内部发出"嘎吱嘎吱"的微小声响，甚至看到 弯曲最厉害的地方开始发白。这些微小的断裂声，就是主断裂发生前的前兆信号。更重要的是，会感觉这 些"嘎吱"声 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong pharmaceutical industry, particularly on innovative drugs, indicating that the sector has entered a profitability phase [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the total revenue of 149 Hong Kong-listed pharmaceutical companies reached CNY 896.12 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 1% increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 61.99 billion, up 29.7% [3][11]. - The innovative drug sector has shown significant growth, with 36 companies reporting a revenue of CNY 28.5 billion, a 15.8% increase, and a net profit of CNY 1.8 billion, marking a turnaround to profitability [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of differentiated products and strong commercialization capabilities for companies in the innovative drug sector, suggesting that these factors will drive future growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total revenue for the Hong Kong pharmaceutical industry in H1 2025 was CNY 896.12 billion, with a net profit of CNY 61.99 billion, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3][11]. - 57% of the companies reported positive net profit growth, while 50% achieved revenue growth [11][6]. Sector Breakdown - **Innovative Drugs**: Revenue of CNY 28.5 billion (+15.8%), net profit of CNY 1.8 billion, indicating a shift to profitability [4][12]. - **Chemical Preparations**: Revenue of CNY 90.8 billion (-7.1%), net profit of CNY 20.8 billion (+52.9%), suggesting a potential industry turning point [4][5]. - **Medical Devices**: Revenue of CNY 22.2 billion (+3.5%), net profit of CNY 1.9 billion, with varied trends across sub-sectors [4][5]. - **CXO**: Revenue of CNY 49.8 billion (+11.2%), net profit of CNY 12.8 billion (+93.7%), showing strong growth [4][5]. - **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: Revenue of CNY 58.5 billion (-1.8%), net profit of CNY 4.3 billion (-11.5%), indicating challenges in the sector [5][6]. R&D and Expenses - R&D expenses totaled CNY 31.4 billion, down 7.8%, with a decreasing trend in R&D expense ratios [16][24]. - Sales expenses reached CNY 77.7 billion, down 1.5%, and management expenses were CNY 58.7 billion, down 7.3% [16][24]. 18A Companies Performance - The report analyzed 50 Hong Kong 18A pharmaceutical companies, which generated CNY 44.9 billion in revenue, a 31.48% increase, and a net profit of CNY 2.727 billion, marking a significant turnaround with a 128.4% growth [29][34]. - Cash and cash equivalents for these companies reached CNY 84.4 billion, up 26.99% year-on-year [34][35]. International Expansion - The report notes that the international recognition of domestic innovative drugs is increasing, with over 20 licensing out projects totaling over USD 2 billion, indicating a growing trend in global market engagement [35][36].

信用债类 ETF 行情修复，转债类 ETF 增势收敛 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 10.保险配置点位有望突破 (2025-07-07) 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 09 月 08 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（9.1-9.5） S 各类债券 ETF 份额走势：信用债类 ETF份额显著回升，转债类 ETF 热度减 弱。截至 2025年 9月 5日收盘，国债类、政金债类、地方债类、信用债类和 可转债类份额分别为 675.94百万份、467.14百万份、79.98百万份、3208.58 百万份、5719.55 百万份，债券类 ETF 合计 10151.19 百万份，较 2025 年 8 月 29 日收盘分别变化 25.72 百万份、0.23 百 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Nobon Co., Ltd. (603238) with a target price of 27.00 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 19.86 CNY [1]. Core Views - Nobon Co., Ltd. is expected to benefit from continuous optimization of customer and product structure, with promising growth for its proprietary brands [1]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 33.3% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, driven by increased orders from downstream customers [7][32]. - The report highlights the company's robust performance in both domestic and international markets, despite facing temporary challenges due to tariffs [53][44]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Nobon achieved revenue of 1.34 billion CNY, a 33.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 65.3 million CNY, up 48.3% year-on-year [7][32]. - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 15.7%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit margin at 4.9%, up 0.5 percentage points [35][32]. Business Segments - The product segments include non-woven materials (rolls) and non-woven products, with the product segment showing a revenue increase of 39.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [42][32]. - The company has established stable partnerships with well-known domestic supermarkets and is expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [44][53]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that Nobon will continue to grow its proprietary brand, "Xiaozhijia," which has seen a revenue increase of 70.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [54][32]. - The global market for wet wipes is projected to grow, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.6% from 2025 to 2029, benefiting companies like Nobon that are positioned in this sector [27][32]. Valuation and Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for Nobon is projected to be 0.74 CNY in 2025, 0.90 CNY in 2026, and 1.08 CNY in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 27, 22, and 18 respectively [2][62]. - The report assigns a 30x valuation for 2026, leading to a target price of 27.0 CNY, reflecting the company's strong growth potential in the non-woven materials sector [62][64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 reached 28.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.06%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.9% [7] - The company experienced a significant increase in battery shipments, with a 59% year-on-year growth in power battery shipments, totaling 21.48 GWh in H1 2025 [7] - The gross margin for the power battery business improved to 17.6% in H1 2025, an increase of 6.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [7] - The company is actively expanding its overseas production capacity, with the Malaysian factory already in operation and plans for additional production lines for energy storage batteries expected to be operational by early 2026 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 48.61 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -0.35%, and is expected to increase to 65.6 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 34.94% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 4.08 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase to 4.38 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 7.46% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.99 yuan in 2024 to 2.14 yuan in 2025 [2] Business Segments - The power battery segment is the largest contributor to revenue, with H1 2025 revenue of 12.75 billion yuan [22] - The energy storage battery segment is also growing, with a year-on-year increase of 37% in shipments [7] - The company is introducing new products, including large cylindrical batteries and solid-state batteries, which are expected to drive future growth [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established itself as a leader in the lithium battery industry, with a comprehensive R&D platform covering materials, cells, and BMS systems [13] - The report highlights the company's strategic acquisitions and expansions that have solidified its market position [13] - The company is expected to benefit from a strong demand in the second half of 2025, with continued improvements in profitability [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 24.83 CNY over the next six months, while the current price is 19.37 CNY [1][8]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but sales are expected to improve in the second half of the year [1]. - The report highlights that the company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 4.119 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.24% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 672 million CNY, down 37.64% year-on-year [5]. - The increase in raw material costs has put pressure on the profit margins, with a gross margin of 24.6% in the first half of 2025, down 8.64 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from stable growth in tire production and exports, with a projected increase in sales due to the ramp-up of the Morocco factory and a recovery in the full-steel product cycle [5][6]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 1.52, 1.91, and 2.20 CNY respectively, with a projected revenue growth rate of 11.7%, 14.4%, and 10.2% for the same period [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.119 billion CNY and a net profit of 672 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline in net profit [5]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 24.6%, down from the previous year, indicating pressure from rising raw material costs [5]. Sales and Production Outlook - The company completed a tire production of 15.5695 million units in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 3.21% year-on-year, but the sales volume is expected to improve with the new factory in Morocco coming online [5][6]. - The report notes that the production and export of rubber tires in China have shown stable growth, with a 2.0% increase in production and a 5.5% increase in exports in the first half of 2025 [5]. Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a target price of 24.83 CNY based on a 13x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting the company's strong earnings potential compared to peers [8]. - The company is positioned well with its global production capacity and is expected to continue expanding its market share [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 41.54 CNY over the next six months, based on a current price of 33.58 CNY [1][31]. Core Insights - The company is actively expanding into high-growth sectors, achieving steady growth in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 9.3 billion CNY, up 6.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.4 billion CNY, up 8.0% year-on-year [7][14]. - The report highlights a recovery in downstream demand, with a significant improvement in inventory structure and a focus on automotive electronics and AI computing as key growth areas [7][12]. - The company has a strong competitive position in the power semiconductor industry, with a comprehensive product lineup and a focus on R&D investment [12][31]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2024A: Revenue of 1,828.42 million CNY, net profit of 434.58 million CNY - 2025E: Revenue of 2,238.92 million CNY, net profit of 558.53 million CNY - 2026E: Revenue of 2,571.05 million CNY, net profit of 659.39 million CNY - 2027E: Revenue of 2,952.69 million CNY, net profit of 771.11 million CNY - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit is projected to be 21.1% over the next three years [3][26][31]. Product and Market Positioning - The company specializes in power semiconductor products, including SGT-MOSFET, SJ-MOSFET, Trench-MOSFET, and IGBT, with applications across various sectors such as consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and renewable energy [9][10][12]. - The SGT-MOSFET product line is noted for its strong competitive edge and significant sales volume, while the IGBT products are expected to benefit from a recovering photovoltaic storage market [7][12][26]. - The company has introduced nearly 4,000 product variants, making it one of the most comprehensive design firms in the domestic MOSFET category [12][13]. Investment Valuation - The report estimates the company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio at 31 times for 2025, leading to a target price of 41.54 CNY, reflecting the company's strong growth potential in high-demand sectors [1][31].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 37.00 CNY over the next six months, based on a current price of 27.23 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report highlights the positive outlook for glyphosate and phosphate fertilizer markets, anticipating strong performance in the third quarter [1]. - The company is recognized as a leading player in the phosphate chemical industry, with a focus on integrating upstream and downstream operations [11][12]. - The report projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.53% for net profit over the next three years, supported by the growth in specialty chemicals and stable phosphate prices [28][32]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 146.20 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.07%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.27 billion CNY, down 9.72% year-on-year [24][21]. - The second quarter saw a revenue of 73.91 billion CNY, reflecting a 13.44% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 4.16 billion CNY, which was a slight decline of 1.72% year-on-year [24][21]. Product Performance - The report notes that the prices of major products remained stable, with phosphate rock and fertilizers contributing positively to performance [24]. - Glyphosate prices are expected to rise due to increased overseas demand and domestic production cuts, while phosphate fertilizers are entering an export peak season [24][21]. Resource and Project Development - The company is actively expanding its phosphate mining resources, with a planned acquisition of a 50% stake in Qiaogou Mining, which has proven phosphate reserves of 185.186 million tons [17][20]. - As of the first half of 2025, the company holds approximately 395 million tons of phosphate mining rights, with a designed production capacity of 5.85 million tons per year [17][20]. Profitability and Valuation - The report anticipates that the company's specialty chemicals segment will continue to grow, contributing to improved profitability [28][32]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.85 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20 times, leading to a target price of 37.00 CNY [28][32].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Hubei Yihua with a target price of 17.51 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 14.28 CNY [1]. Core Views - Hubei Yihua is a diversified large-scale phosphate chemical enterprise with a strong presence in fertilizers, chlor-alkali chemicals, fine chemicals, and coal sectors. The company has a complete industrial chain layout and rich resource reserves, having evolved from a local small factory to a major enterprise since its establishment in 1977 [7][13]. - The integration of quality assets has broadened growth paths, particularly through the acquisition of Xinjiang Yihua, which significantly enhances the company's production capacity in urea and chlor-alkali products, thereby strengthening its competitive advantages [18][36]. - The fertilizer segment remains a major revenue contributor, with coal business margins remaining high, indicating a solid profit source for the future [22][36]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hubei Yihua reported revenues of 120.05 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.99 billion CNY, down 43.92% year-on-year [19][22]. - The company expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.15% for net profit over the next three years, with projected revenues of 169.64 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 238.86 billion CNY in 2025 [2][36]. Product Capacity and Margins - The company has significant production capacities, including 2.16 million tons/year of urea and 1.65 million tons/year of ammonium phosphate. The coal business contributes to high margins, with coal gross margins at 43.90% [16][22]. - The gross margins for various products in the first half of 2025 were as follows: ammonium phosphate at 18.42%, urea at 12.90%, PVC at -8.65%, and coal at 43.90% [22]. Valuation and Estimates - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 for 2025, with a target price of 17.51 CNY based on this valuation [36]. - The report also provides a comparative analysis with other companies in the phosphate chemical industry, indicating an average PE of 12 for 2024 and 13 for 2025 [34].