[Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 11 月 03 日 证券研究报告•2025 年三季报点评 当前价：63.46 元 酒 鬼 酒（000799）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 分析师：王书龙 执业证号：S1250523070003 电话：023-63786049 邮箱：wsl@swsc.com.cn -21% -8% 5% 19% 32% 45% 24/11 25/1 25/3 25/5 25/7 25/9 25/11 酒鬼酒 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据 拐点出现，稳中求进 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（亿元） | 14.23 | 10.32 | 10.66 | 11.29 | | 增长率 | -49.70% | -27.52% | 3.31% | 5.90% | | 归属母公司净利润（亿元） | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.32 | 0.52 | | 增长率 | -97.72% | -46.07% | 382.1 ...

相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 各类债券 ETF资金净流入情况：债券类 ETF资金净流入放量加速。上周利率 债类 ETF、信用债类 ETF、可转债类 ETF净流入资金分别 44.89亿元、99.19 亿元、-16.92亿元，债券 ETF市场合计净流入金额 127.17亿元。地方债 ETF 资金面显著回暖，上周净流入规模大幅增加。具体来看，上周科创债 ETF （+63.23 亿元）、地方债类 ETF（+30.87 亿元）、短融 ETF（+20.03 亿元） 净流入金额排名前三，仅可转债类 ETF 净流入资金为负。 各类债券 ETF份额走势：利率债类、信用债类 ETF份额流入边际改善，地方 债类 ETF 陡峭增长。截至 2025 年 10月 31 日收盘，国债类、政金债类、地 方债类、信用债类和可转债类份额较前周收盘分别变化 8.38百万份、3.31百 万份、26.99 百万份、207.60 百万份、-124.20 百万份，债券类 ETF 合计变 化 122.08 百万份。 主要债券 ETF 份额及净值走势：城投债 ETF份额流入实现显著增长。30 年 国债 ETF、政金债券 ETF、5年地债 ET ...

[Table_Reporto] 2025 年 11 月 02 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券市场跟踪周报（10.27-10.31） 公开市场国债买卖的 2.0 时代 核心观点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 本次重启国债买卖或主要为丰富流动性投放结构，而非进一步宽松"信号"。 上周重启国债买卖催化债市多头情绪高涨，货币宽松预期再度升温，但从央行 宣布恢复公开市场国债买卖操作的时间节点和前期暂停目的来看，我们认为本 次操作或主要为增强市场信心、丰富流动性投放结构，而非进一步宽松"信号"。 首先，国债买卖或更类似于"定向降准"，有利于规避银行体系内的结构性矛 盾。当前"大行缺负债、中小行缺资产"的格局依然突出，若使用总量宽松工 具提供长期流动性则可能加剧中小行缺资产现状，从而进一步加深债券市 ...

[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 10 月 30 日 证券研究报告•2025 年三季报点评 当前价：10.98 元 华统股份（002840）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 业绩短期承压，降本增效与结构优化推动长期韧性 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 9,092 | 8,687 | 9,543 | 12,753 | | 增长率 | 5.98% | -4.46% | 9.86% | 33.64% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 73 | 77 | 318 | 551 | | 增长率 | 112.08% | 4.91% | 315.24% | 73.06% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.40 | 0.68 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 3.00% | 1.93% | 7.43% | 11.40% | | PE | 105.08 | 115.36 | 27.78 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated continuous improvement in profitability, with a third-quarter dividend declared [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.1 billion yuan, up 29.4% year-on-year [7]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 54.4%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 36.3%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company is focusing on product development and expanding its presence in the screw rod sector, diversifying raw materials and applications [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 680.28 million yuan, 856.32 million yuan, 1,122.33 million yuan, and 1,507.60 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 16.63%, 25.88%, 31.06%, and 34.33% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 211.61 million yuan, 276.42 million yuan, 380.63 million yuan, and 490.83 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 14.76%, 30.63%, 37.70%, and 28.95% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.55 yuan, 2.03 yuan, 2.79 yuan, and 3.60 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E, respectively [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 15.72% in 2024A to 21.21% in 2027E [2]. Dividend Policy - The company has announced a cash dividend of 2.50 yuan per 10 shares for the third quarter of 2025, with a cumulative dividend payout ratio of 35.6% for the year [7].

Domestic Developments - The People's Bank of China maintained the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, indicating room for monetary policy easing as demand for stable growth rises in Q4[6] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the continuous optimization of the business environment for foreign enterprises, with actual foreign investment reaching $708.73 billion by mid-2025, surpassing the target six months early[9] - The total scale of foreign-related receipts and payments reached $1.16 trillion in the first three quarters, a record high for the same period, reflecting a resilient foreign exchange market[10] International Developments - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, with potential impacts on Q4 economic growth estimated at a reduction of 0.1% to 0.2% per week[15] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, announced an economic stimulus package potentially exceeding ¥13.9 trillion to address inflation and government debt pressures[17] - International gold prices saw a significant drop, with London gold falling over 6% to below $4,100 per ounce, driven by profit-taking and easing geopolitical risks[18] Commodity Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.17% week-on-week, while iron ore prices fell by 1.34%[22] - The price of thermal coal increased by 4.58% week-on-week, indicating mixed trends in commodity prices[26] - Real estate sales in major cities increased by 2.42% week-on-week, but the average daily retail sales of passenger cars fell by 3% year-on-year[37]

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has entered a global strategic partnership with Takeda to co-develop three therapies, including IBI363 and IBI343, with a total potential deal value of up to $11.4 billion [5] - IBI363 is a next-generation immune checkpoint inhibitor that has shown promising results in clinical trials for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) [5] - IBI343 targets CLDN18.2 and is being developed for pancreatic and gastric cancers, with ongoing clinical trials showing encouraging results [5] - The company aims to become a leading global biopharmaceutical enterprise, leveraging its expertise in IO and ADC fields alongside Takeda's commercialization capabilities [5] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 114.4 billion, 149.7 billion, and 201.1 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 21.4%, 30.9%, and 34.3% [6][7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 864.68 million, 1,643.79 million, and 2,749.81 million CNY for the same years, reflecting significant growth [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.06 CNY in 2024 to 1.60 CNY by 2027 [7] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the oncology pipeline is projected to grow from 80.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 133.1 billion CNY in 2027, with a stable gross margin of around 85% [9] - Non-oncology pipeline revenues are expected to increase significantly, from 2 billion CNY in 2024 to 60 billion CNY in 2027, with a gross margin of 78% [9] - Licensing income is forecasted to stabilize at around 7 billion CNY annually from 2025 to 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential increase in stock price relative to the market index over the next six months [12][13]. Core Insights - The company is advancing its research pipeline into the 2.0 era, with key products expected to catalyze growth soon [7]. - CS2009 has shown good safety and tolerability in Phase I clinical trials, with promising anti-tumor activity and a high disease control rate (DCR) [7]. - The company has initiated Phase II dose expansion studies for CS2009 in specific tumor types, aiming to optimize dosing regimens and gather more data for regulatory submissions [7]. - CS5001 is under investigation for both monotherapy and combination therapy in hematological and solid tumors, with ongoing global multi-center clinical trials [7]. - Strategic collaborations are expanding the international reach of the company's products, particularly for Shugli monoclonal antibody, which is expected to cover multiple indications [7]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 2.2 billion, RMB 5.1 billion, and RMB 8.6 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]. - The projected revenue breakdown includes contributions from various products, with significant growth anticipated for Shugli monoclonal antibody starting in 2026 [8][9]. - The company expects to achieve a positive net profit of RMB 165.95 million by 2027, following substantial losses in the preceding years [2][10]. Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The report outlines a projected revenue decline of 12.21% in 2024, followed by a significant recovery with growth rates of 131.82% and 68.63% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to turn positive by 2027, indicating a turnaround in profitability [2][9]. - The net asset return rate (ROE) is projected to improve significantly, reaching 304.32% by 2027 after a period of negative returns [2][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guobang Pharmaceutical (605507) with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company's profit growth rate has significantly improved in the third quarter, indicating a recovery in profitability. Despite a slight decline in revenue, the net profit for Q3 increased by 23.17% year-on-year, showcasing enhanced profitability driven by improved gross margins and effective cost control [7]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the animal health raw materials business, which is entering a favorable cycle. The core product, Florfenicol, has seen a recovery in profitability due to industry capacity reduction, with shipments exceeding 2,000 tons in the first half of the year [7]. - The company's global market presence and high-value product strategy are enhancing its competitive edge, with products sold in 117 countries and regions, and partnerships established with over 5,000 clients and suppliers [7]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.17%, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 15.78% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.44 billion yuan, down 5.39% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 23.17% [7]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates an EPS of 1.88 yuan, 2.23 yuan, and 2.52 yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The bond ETF market has experienced the largest redemption wave this year, with all bond - related ETFs showing net outflows. The net outflows of treasury - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs reached new highs this week. Only corporate bond ETFs and urban investment bond ETFs had small net inflows. Different types of bond ETFs presented various trends in share and net value changes [4][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Various Bond ETF Fund Inflow Situations - Bond - related ETFs had net outflows across the board. Last week, the net inflows of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 49.60 billion yuan, - 74.56 billion yuan, and - 9.41 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of - 133.57 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. As of October 17, 2025, the bond ETF fund scale was 6778.33 billion yuan, down 2.00% from the previous week's close, up 277.05% from the beginning of the year, and accounting for 12.27% of the total market ETF scale, a 43 - basis - point decrease from the previous weekend [4][7]. - Treasury - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs had record - high weekly net outflows. Only corporate bond ETFs (+1.09 billion yuan) and urban investment bond ETFs (+1.89 billion yuan) had small net inflows last week, while the net inflows of other types of bond ETFs were negative. The net outflows of sci - tech bond ETFs and treasury - bond ETFs were relatively large, at - 49.52 billion yuan and - 48.59 billion yuan respectively, both reaching new highs in weekly net outflows since the beginning of 2024 [7]. 3.2 Various Bond ETF Share Trends - The shares of treasury - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs had significant outflows. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial - bond, local - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs changed by - 45.47 million shares, - 0.93 million shares, no change, - 55.97 million shares, and - 71.20 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025, with a total change of - 173.57 million shares for bond - related ETFs [20]. 3.3 Main Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - Among the representative products, only the urban investment bond ETF had positive share growth. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the shares of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial - bond ETF, 5 - year local - bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible - bond ETF changed by - 5.33 million shares, - 0.46 million shares, no change, 18.60 million shares, and - 51.70 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [24]. - The net values continued to rise, except for the convertible - bond ETF. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the net values of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial - bond ETF, 5 - year local - bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible - bond ETF changed by 1.47%, 0.37%, 0.16%, 0.10%, and - 2.26% respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [28]. 3.4 Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - The shares had an overall outflow. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the shares of 8 existing credit - bond ETFs changed by no change, - 2.00 million shares, - 1.80 million shares, 0.01 million shares, no change, 0.10 million shares, - 2.90 million shares, and - 1.80 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [31]. - The net values continued the upward trend. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the net values of 8 credit - bond ETFs changed by 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.13%, 0.16%, and 0.13% respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [34]. 3.5 Sci - Tech Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - The shares generally had outflows. Among the 24 existing sci - tech bond ETFs, the top three in terms of share size were Sci - Tech Bond ETF Harvest, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Penghua, and Sci - Tech Bond ETF China Merchants. The top three products in terms of share net inflow last week were Sci - Tech Bond ETF E Fund, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Penghua, and Sci - Tech Bond ETF Taikang, with changes of 0.30 million shares, 0.30 million shares, and 0.04 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [37]. - The net values generally increased. The top three sci - tech bond ETFs in terms of net - value increase last week were Sci - Tech Bond ETF Dacheng, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Harvest, and Sci - Tech Bond ETF Huaxia, with increases of 0.16%, 0.15%, and 0.14% respectively [38]. 3.6 Single Bond ETF Market Performance - The net values of long - term interest - rate bond ETFs rebounded, and only the net values of convertible - bond ETFs declined. Last week, the net - value increases of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF and 30 - year treasury - bond ETF Boshi led, while only the net values of convertible - bond ETF and Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible - Bond ETF adjusted downward, expected to be affected by the decline of the equity market in the second half of the week [40]. - In terms of premium/discount rates, the benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs had significantly higher discounts than other products. Credit - Bond ETF Boshi, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Invesco, and Corporate Bond ETF E Fund had the highest discount rates [40]. - In terms of scale changes, urban investment bond ETFs and corporate bond ETFs had positive net inflows, while short - term financing ETFs, Treasury - Bond ETF Dongcai, and 30 - year Treasury - Bond ETF Boshi had the largest net outflows last week [40].