1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Kechuang Bond ETF is expected to succeed the outstanding performance of the Credit Bond ETF. In the short - term, it may become a new market hot - spot, and in the long - term, it has the characteristics of controllable risks and stable returns [3][14]. - In the current interest rate environment, bond - type assets still play a "ballast stone" role in the asset portfolio, and credit bonds are the preferred choice for bond - type asset allocation, among which Kechuang bonds are the "new hot - spot" in credit bond assets [18][19]. - Kechuang Bond ETF Guangfa has advantages such as a more neutral duration, and its tracking index has features like a large number of subjects, a large market capacity, and high single - bond balances [3][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 1 Kechuang Bond ETF Value Analysis - The tracking index of Kechuang Bond ETF Guangfa contains high - quality Kechuang bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, covering industries with high importance and strong stability. The index is calculated by the total market - value weighted method with a monthly sample - adjustment cycle [3][10]. - The Shanghai AAA Kechuang Bond Index shows good offensive ability in a bond bull market, with a cumulative return of 14.78% since 2023 and an annualized return of 4.68%. Its drawdown amplitude is relatively small [13]. - In the current low - inflation environment, bond - type assets are the "ballast stone" in the asset portfolio, and credit bonds are the preferred choice for bond - type asset allocation. Kechuang bonds, as a new hot - spot in credit bond assets, are in a "golden period" for investment [18][19]. 3.2 2 Kechuang Bond ETF Guangfa (511120) Information Introduction 3.2.1 Product Basic Situation Introduction - Kechuang Bond ETF Guangfa was established on July 10, 2025, and officially listed for trading on July 17, 2025. Its issuance and fundraising scale reached 2.968 billion yuan, and after listing, its scale increased to 5.662 billion yuan, with an increase of 90.73%. The average daily trading volume was about 2.738 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 48.35%. It has a certain fee - rate advantage [24]. - It uses a physical subscription and redemption mechanism. Investors can subscribe with a basket of component bonds or cash. The trading mechanism is for on - exchange funds with continuous auction trading, and it provides T + 0 trading between the primary and secondary markets. The income distribution adopts the cash - dividend method without a mandatory dividend commitment [25][27]. 3.2.2 Shanghai AAA Kechuang Bond Index Features Introduction - It is expected to be included in the pledge library, with a potentially higher pledge discount coefficient. It belongs to the medium - duration index, has a clear fund use, a relatively high credit level, and a larger strategy capacity [28][29]. 3.2.3 Kechuang Bond ETF Guangfa Applicable Scenarios Introduction - In the long - term investment logic, it is suitable for the credit - bond allocation enhancement strategy in a low - interest - rate environment. In the short - term investment logic, it can be applied to investment strategies such as spread trading, arbitrage trading, and credit short - selling [30]. 3.3 3 Comparison with Mainstream Bond ETF Products - Kechuang Bond ETF Guangfa has a more neutral duration. Compared with mainstream bond ETFs, it is more suitable for obtaining higher returns in a falling - interest - rate environment and can better control the drawdown amplitude [31]. - The tracking index of Kechuang Bond ETF Guangfa has advantages such as a large number of subjects, a large market capacity, and high single - bond balances, which are beneficial for risk dispersion, strategy reserve, and investment transactions [32].

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has experienced pressure on freight rates leading to a decline in profits, with a focus on waiting for seasonal demand to release elasticity [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, despite a significant drop in the dry bulk shipping market [8] - The company is expanding its fleet and enhancing its profitability, with a total of 12 new vessels added, ranking among the top in domestic dry bulk transportation capacity [8][9] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A: 3,658.77 million yuan, 2025E: 3,668.59 million yuan, 2026E: 4,262.58 million yuan, 2027E: 4,857.25 million yuan, with growth rates of 114.55%, 0.27%, 16.19%, and 13.95% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 549.02 million yuan in 2024A, dropping to 263.66 million yuan in 2025E, then recovering to 515.07 million yuan in 2026E and 737.20 million yuan in 2027E [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.59 yuan in 2024A, 0.28 yuan in 2025E, 0.56 yuan in 2026E, and 0.80 yuan in 2027E [2] Market Performance - The average daily TCE for the company's foreign trade self-operated super flexible vessels was 12,258 USD, outperforming the market by approximately 33% [8] - The domestic coastal dry bulk transportation market is showing signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in cargo volume for the company's coastal charter business [8] Profitability Outlook - The company is expected to see net profits of 2.6 billion yuan, 5.2 billion yuan, and 7.4 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30x, 15x, and 11x [9][10]

Core Views - The breeding sector is experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics due to intensified policy regulation, with measures from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) aimed at optimizing pig production capacity, which is expected to enhance CPI targets and stabilize pig prices [4][50] - The beef industry is undergoing significant supply reduction, with a deep cycle anticipated as the number of breeding cows declines sharply, leading to lower beef supply starting in the second half of 2025 [6][88] - Smart agriculture is benefiting from ongoing policy incentives and increased funding, with water conservancy investments projected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 12.8% year-on-year increase [6][50] Breeding Sector - The breeding industry is seeing a favorable supply-demand balance, with policies aimed at controlling production capacity and improving profitability for leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [4][50] - The profitability of self-breeding operations is stable, while external pig purchases show fluctuating profits, indicating a need for careful management of breeding strategies [20][25] - The average weight of pigs being slaughtered has decreased, which is expected to reduce supply pressure and potentially increase pig prices in the coming months [41][42] Beef Industry - The domestic beef supply is expected to decrease significantly due to a reduction in breeding cow numbers, with the industry mirroring the pre-2019 pig cycle in terms of supply adjustments [6][88] - The beef market is characterized by a long adjustment period from breeding to market, typically requiring 2-3 years, which complicates supply management [70] Smart Agriculture - The smart agriculture sector is poised for growth driven by government policies and funding, with a focus on modernizing irrigation systems and enhancing water management practices [6][50] - The market for smart agriculture is projected to expand significantly, with the government aiming to establish 13 million acres of efficient water-saving irrigation [6] Animal Health - The veterinary drug sector is experiencing a structural shift due to the implementation of new GMP standards, which are raising industry entry barriers and promoting consolidation among leading firms [51][66] - The veterinary raw material drug prices are entering a recovery phase after a prolonged downturn, with demand expected to rise as breeding profitability improves [53][66] Investment Recommendations - Key investment targets include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Jiusan Foods in the breeding sector, as well as Deyu Water Saving and Ruipu Biological in the smart agriculture and animal health sectors, respectively [4][66][67]

Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of industrial upgrades and the expansion of the automotive industry into international markets, particularly focusing on smart and electric vehicles [1][3]. Smart Vehicles - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature is expected to enter the Chinese market, with the city Navigation on Autopilot (NOA) becoming a standard for advanced driving [4]. - The penetration rate of city NOA is projected to reach 12.2% by 2025, indicating rapid industry growth and benefiting related component manufacturers [4]. - The year 2025 is marked as the beginning of the Robotaxi era, with significant advancements from companies like Waymo and Tesla, creating vast market potential [4]. - New models and popular vehicles are expected to drive sales, with notable launches from brands like AITO and Xiaomi, indicating strong consumer interest [4]. New Energy Vehicles - The report forecasts that sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) will reach 15.85 million units in 2025, with a penetration rate of 55% [4]. - In the first half of 2025, NEV sales reached 6.937 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%, driven by supply chain improvements and favorable policies [4]. - The global expansion of Chinese automakers is anticipated to contribute significantly to industry growth, leveraging competitive advantages in cost and production capacity [4]. Commercial Vehicles - Heavy-duty truck sales are expected to reach 1.02 million units in 2025, supported by policies encouraging the replacement of older vehicles [4]. - The bus sector is also projected to grow, with sales of 526,000 units in 2024, reflecting a 6.9% increase year-on-year [4]. - The commercial vehicle market is benefiting from the renewal of old vehicles and the export of new energy buses [4]. Two-Wheelers - The electric two-wheeler segment is poised for growth due to favorable policies and the transition to new standards, with production expected to increase significantly [4]. - Motorcycle exports are also on the rise, with a 25% increase in the first half of 2025, driven by demand for larger displacement models [4]. Market Performance - The automotive sector has shown resilience, with a cumulative increase of 8.22% in the first half of 2025, outperforming other industries [7][22]. - The report notes a strong performance in commercial vehicles, with significant growth in both sales and exports [7][23]. Policy Support - The Chinese government continues to implement policies that support the automotive industry's transition to smart and electric vehicles, enhancing the overall market environment [57][59]. - Various initiatives are in place to promote the adoption of intelligent driving technologies and improve safety standards [58][60]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key investment targets across various segments, including smart vehicles, new energy vehicles, commercial vehicles, and two-wheelers, highlighting companies like BYD, Changan, and Aima Technology as potential beneficiaries of industry trends [6].

Core Viewpoints - The white liquor industry is currently under pressure, with high-end and mid-range products affected by economic and policy influences, leading to a decline in prices from approximately 2200 yuan to around 1850 yuan since the Spring Festival of 2025 [4][29] - The beer industry is expected to benefit from a low base effect in 2025, with a recovery in overall demand as the summer approaches, supported by favorable weather conditions and government consumption incentives [4][42] - The dairy industry is in a transitional phase, with prices expected to stabilize as demand improves and production levels off, leading to enhanced profitability for upstream and downstream companies [4][58] - The seasoning industry is experiencing steady demand, with a focus on high-end products and a resilient consumer base, despite short-term pressures from the restaurant sector [4][76] White Liquor - The high-end liquor segment remains a long-term investment opportunity, with leading brands maintaining market share despite current pressures [4][34] - The mid-range liquor market is facing intensified competition and declining sales, particularly in the business dining sector [4][36] - The overall valuation of leading white liquor companies is currently at historical lows, with expected valuations between 13-19 times for 2025 [4][4] Beer - The beer market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in production and sales during the summer months, particularly benefiting national brands [4][42] - The industry is moving towards a high-end product strategy, with significant growth in premium beer segments [4][47] - The overall market structure is becoming more concentrated, with the top five companies controlling over 90% of the market [4][47] Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a rebound in profitability as raw milk prices stabilize and consumer demand for high-quality products increases [4][58] - The long-term growth potential for dairy products remains strong, driven by rising disposable incomes and changing consumer preferences [4][63] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards premium products, with a focus on high-end milk and cheese offerings [4][74] Seasoning Products - The seasoning industry is characterized by stable demand, with a focus on health and premiumization trends [4][76] - The restaurant sector's recovery is anticipated to positively impact seasoning sales, particularly in the B2B market [4][76] - Cost reductions in raw materials are expected to support profitability in the seasoning industry [4][76] Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is projected to maintain strong growth, driven by the increasing chain restaurant market and consumer demand for convenience [4][41] - Leading companies in the frozen food industry are expected to capture market share from smaller competitors due to their scale and distribution advantages [4][41] Food Additives - The food additives market is experiencing significant growth potential, with a trend towards natural and healthy ingredients [4][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market's performance was mainly influenced by changes in the capital market and the stock - bond "seesaw" effect. The central bank's actions to smooth out liquidity fluctuations sent a positive signal, while the strong performance of the equity market led to weaker long - term bond performance in the second half of the week. Short - duration assets with better defensive properties performed relatively well [3][96]. - The traditional factors such as fundamentals, liquidity, fiscal supply, and external shocks may not be the main constraints for the bond market to show "seasonal weakness" in the third quarter. Currently, the loose liquidity pattern and the central bank's decision to cancel the freeze on bond repurchase collateral may revitalize more bonds and provide a better foundation for restarting treasury bond trading. The bond market may maintain a volatile and relatively strong situation with "less downward resistance and more upward pressure" [3][98]. - With the implementation of the insurance's predetermined interest rate cut, the allocation motivation of insurance funds is expected to further increase, which may be an important force driving the bond market to rise. In terms of strategies, an investment portfolio of "short - credit + long - term local bonds" can be considered. For trading, the current 10 - year (250011) and 30 - year (2500002) treasury bond active bonds can be selected as the main trading targets [3][99]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On July 14, the central bank announced a 1400 - billion - yuan open - market outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan in July, and the balance of outright reverse repurchases after deducting maturities was 4.8 trillion yuan [6]. - On July 14, the central bank official mentioned that small and medium - sized banks' bond investment should maintain a reasonable "degree" [9]. - On July 16, it was announced that China's GDP growth rate in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, with the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries growing at 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% respectively [9]. - On July 19, the central bank drafted a decision to modify some regulations, including clarifying the legal status of Shanghai Clearing House, canceling the freeze on bond repurchase collateral, and modifying information disclosure regulations for financial bonds [12]. - From July 14 - 15, the Central Urban Work Conference was held, deploying seven key tasks for urban work [13]. - On July 19, it was reported that China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established to promote the construction of a 1.2 - trillion - yuan hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River [16]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations and Fund Rate Trends - From July 14 - 18, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net investment of 130.11 billion yuan. From July 21 - 25, it is expected that 204.68 billion yuan of base currency will mature and be withdrawn [17][18]. - During the tax period last week, the central bank's actions led to a change in the capital market from tight to loose. As of July 11, compared with July 4, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by 3.88BP, 0.86BP, 2.81BP, and 0.58BP respectively [22]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situation - In the primary market, last week, CDs ended three consecutive weeks of net outflows, with a net financing of 144.37 billion yuan. The state - owned banks had the largest CD issuance scale, with a net financing of 64.84 billion yuan [24][28]. - Affected by the tax period, the average issuance rate of 1 - year CDs of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased by about 2.94BP compared with the previous week. In the secondary market, due to the stock - bond "seesaw" effect, short - duration assets were more defensive, and CD yields were generally declining [30][34]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - On July 14, the 4th and 5th ultra - long - term special treasury bonds were issued, with marginal interest rates of 1.92% and 1.9% respectively. The net financing rhythm of local government bonds was slower than that of treasury bonds. As of July 18, the cumulative net financing of various treasury bonds in 2025 was about 3.83 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 4.70 trillion yuan. The supply of local government bonds in the third quarter may be postponed [36][37]. - Last week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds decreased, while that of local bonds increased. The total net financing of interest - rate bonds was 200.565 billion yuan, with treasury bonds at 58.15 billion yuan, local bonds at 207.795 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds at - 65.38 billion yuan [45]. - As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 had reached 1.83 trillion yuan, mainly in long - and ultra - long - term maturities [47]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - The central bank's actions eased the tight capital market, but the stock - bond "seesaw" effect made short - rate bonds perform better, and the term spread widened. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 2.12BP, - 1.15BP, - 0.36BP, - 1.10BP, - 0.01BP, and 1.44BP respectively [50]. - The liquidity premium between the active and sub - active 10 - year treasury and policy - bank bonds narrowed. The long - and ultra - long - term treasury - local bond spread narrowed, mainly due to the increase in long - term treasury bond supply [58][66]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the leveraged trading scale decreased due to the tax period, with an average of about 7.24 trillion yuan. Rural commercial banks, funds, and insurance were the top three buyers in the interest - rate bond market. Rural commercial banks preferred defensive assets within 10 years, funds implemented a "dumbbell strategy", and insurance increased the allocation of long - term local bonds [67][81]. - In May 2025, the overall leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.46%, with commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions at about 110.53%, 183.89%, and 131.06% respectively [67]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar futures increased by 0.92% week - on - week, wire rod futures decreased by 4.29%, cathode copper futures decreased by 1.01%, the cement price index decreased by 2.10%, and the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 4.44%. The CCFI index decreased by 0.77%, and the BDI index increased by 42.66%. The pork wholesale price increased by 0.63%, and the vegetable wholesale price increased by 0.23%. Brent crude oil futures increased by 3.76%, and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 1.23%. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.15 [91][95].

Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is experiencing a turning point and structural market trends in the first half of 2025, with a focus on innovative drugs and their supply chain, AI healthcare, and brain-computer interfaces as structural opportunities [3][5] - The A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology index has increased by 10.10% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.90 percentage points, ranking 4th in industry performance [3][22] - Among 480 listed pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, 348 have seen their stock prices rise, accounting for 72.5%, with 17 stocks doubling in value [3][40] Investment Logic - The innovative drug sector is accelerating its value reconstruction through business development (BD) overseas, research and commercialization progress, and policy support. In the first half of 2025, over 50 BD transactions for innovative drugs occurred, totaling over $48 billion [5] - Significant clinical data releases and commercialization progress for major drug candidates are expected to drive stock price increases [5] - Policy initiatives, such as the March 2025 government work report emphasizing the support for innovative drugs and medical devices, are providing strong backing for the industry's long-term development [5] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's valuation has seen a short-term recovery but remains at a long-term low, with a PE ratio of 29 times as of mid-2025, slightly above the 50th percentile of the past four years [3][43] - Public fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector have increased, with the proportion of public funds in A+H shares rising to 9.05% in Q1 2025, a 0.37 percentage point increase [3][58] Sub-industry Performance - The best-performing sub-industries in the pharmaceutical sector include chemical preparations and other biological products, with increases of 25.8% and 24.0%, respectively [3][22] - The pharmaceutical industry is witnessing a structural market trend, with innovative drugs leading the charge, while traditional sectors like vaccines and traditional Chinese medicine have seen slight declines [3][29] Recommended Stocks - A robust portfolio is suggested, including companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, BeiGene, and United Imaging Healthcare, among others [10]

时的科技斩获 350 架海外订单， 国际低空经济博览会召开在即 投资要点 西南证券研究院 [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [股票家数 Table_BaseData] | 443 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 38,945.10 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 37,382.11 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 33.2 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 13.4 | 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 -10% 2% 14% 26% 38% 50% 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 25/3 25/5 25/7 机械设备 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据 [Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 07 月 20 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 低空经济行业双周报（0707-0720） 气象保障服务能力，推动气象科技赋能低空经济发展，助力低空经济实现"快 起步、飞得起、管得住、发展好"的良好局面，为全国低空气象服务贡献"成 都方案"。实验室由四川省气象局联合中国气象科学研究院，依托 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1]. Core Insights - The robot index outperformed the market, with a 4.5% increase during the week of July 14-20, 2025, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.8 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 3.5 percentage points [5][12]. - The launch of the Walker S2 by UBTECH, the world's first humanoid robot with a hot-swappable battery system, allows for 24/7 operation without human intervention, enhancing productivity and reducing maintenance costs [17][18]. - NVIDIA's CEO Huang Renxun stated that the next wave of AI will be in robotics, emphasizing the integration of AI in manufacturing and human-robot collaboration [21]. - The establishment of a one-stop intelligent public service platform for humanoid robots in Beijing aims to integrate technology development, data collection, and testing capabilities [22]. - Yushutech has initiated its IPO process, with annual revenue exceeding 1 billion RMB [23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The robot index increased by 4.5% from July 14 to July 20, 2025, outperforming major indices [5][12]. Industry Dynamics - UBTECH's Walker S2 features a unique battery swapping technology that allows for seamless operation and reduces downtime [17][18]. - The platform launched in Beijing aims to support the development and application of humanoid robots [22]. Financing Dynamics - Yushutech has started its IPO process, with significant control held by its founder [23].

Core Views - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold, copper, and aluminum, emphasizing the importance of strategic metals [1][3] - In H1 2025, domestic economic indicators show signs of bottoming out, with improvements in real estate construction and a gradual shift towards new economic drivers [4][8] - The global economic landscape is being reshaped by fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and the impacts of trade wars, leading to significant changes in resource sectors [4][8] Investment Strategies - **Main Line 1: Expansion on the Denominator Side - Gold and Silver**: Focus on gold and silver, with specific attention to the performance of gold stocks and the potential for silver due to its high price ratio to gold [4][5] - **Main Line 2: Improvement on the Numerator Side - Aluminum, Copper, Tin**: Anticipate continued high profitability in aluminum due to falling costs, while remaining cautious of potential short-term demand weakness [4][7] - **Main Line 3: Key Strategic Metals**: Highlighting opportunities in rare earths and other strategic metals amid US-China tensions, particularly in six key strategic metals [4][7] - **Main Line 4: Supply-Side Disruptions from Anti-Competition**: The report suggests that supply-side constraints in sectors like lithium carbonate may present attractive bottom-fishing opportunities [4][7] Market Performance - The CRB metal spot index increased by 7.08% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, indicating a general upward trend in metal prices [9][10] - Gold prices surged by 23.93% during the same period, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [12][14] - Industrial metals, particularly tin and copper, saw significant price increases of 19.91% and 15.59% respectively, while zinc prices fell by 5.55% [16][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with LME copper stocks decreasing by 66.17% by June 30, 2025 [21][69] - The report anticipates limited growth in global copper supply due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, projecting only a 2.3% increase in global copper production in 2025 [62][64] - The refined copper market is expected to remain slightly short, with a projected demand growth of 7.1% for 2025, supporting a high price center for copper [69] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.17% from January to June 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [38][40] - Sub-sectors such as tungsten, gold, and rare earths performed particularly well, with respective increases of 39.64%, 33.57%, and 31.88% [42][44] - Companies closely tied to resource price fluctuations, particularly in gold and rare earths, showed strong performance, while midstream processing companies faced challenges due to weak downstream demand [44]