Investment Rating - The investment rating for Weichai Power is "Buy" (maintained) with a current price of 14.81 CNY and a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Views - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 57%, indicating strong cash flow management and shareholder returns [1]. - Weichai Power's overseas business is showing robust growth, particularly in engine exports and new energy vehicle sales [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, Weichai Power achieved a revenue of 1131.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 56.4 billion CNY, down 4.4% year-on-year [7]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 22.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 5.8%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company sold 362,000 engines in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year, with heavy truck engine sales down 22.4% [7]. - Engine exports increased by 14% year-on-year, generating revenue of 4.14 billion CNY, a 54% increase [7]. - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 127.2 billion CNY, 150.8 billion CNY, and 169.6 billion CNY respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [7][8]. Market Position and Growth - Weichai Power's heavy truck market share increased to 13.5% with a 14.6% year-on-year increase in sales [7]. - The company has accelerated its transition to new energy vehicles, with sales exceeding 10,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 255% [7]. - The revenue from the new energy power industry increased by 37% year-on-year to 1.21 billion CNY [7]. Subsidiary Performance - The subsidiary, Lovol, reported revenue of 9.86 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and a net profit of 570 million CNY, up 2.3% [7]. - Kion's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 43.21 billion CNY, down 2.3% year-on-year, with a significant drop in net profit due to efficiency-related expenses [7]. Conclusion - Weichai Power is positioned for growth with strong overseas performance and a focus on new energy vehicles, supported by solid financial metrics and a commitment to shareholder returns [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the stock bull market, convertible bond ETFs continue to drive a significant increase in the share of bond ETFs. As of the close on August 29, 2025, compared with the close on August 22, 2025, the shares of treasury bond, policy - financial bond, local bond, credit bond, and convertible bond ETFs changed by 33.48 million shares, - 1.37 million shares, no change, 22.31 million shares, and 487.60 million shares respectively, with a total change of 542.02 million shares in bond - type ETFs; compared with the end - of - last - month close, they changed by 121.50 million shares, - 39.28 million shares, - 0.40 million shares, 192.15 million shares, and 1498.10 million shares respectively, with a total change of 1772.07 million shares in bond - type ETFs [2][5]. - Core bond ETFs generally saw an increase in shares, convertible bond ETFs received substantial net inflows, and long - term interest - rate bonds were also allocated. The net value of long - term interest - rate bond ETFs stabilized and rose slightly, while convertible bond ETFs showed a significant correction [2][7]. Summary by Directory 1.1 Various Bond ETF Share Trends - In the stock bull market, convertible bond - type ETFs continue to drive a significant increase in the share of bond ETFs. As of August 29, 2025, the shares of treasury bond, policy - financial bond, local bond, credit bond, and convertible bond ETFs were 650.23 million shares, 466.86 million shares, 79.78 million shares, 3098.66 million shares, and 5683.25 million shares respectively, with a total of 9978.77 million shares in bond - type ETFs [5]. 1.2 Main Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - Core bond ETFs generally saw an increase in shares, convertible bond ETFs received substantial net inflows, and long - term interest - rate bonds were also allocated. As of August 29, 2025, the shares of 30 - year treasury bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible bond ETF were 248.07 million shares, 406.16 million shares, 31.73 million shares, 2381.68 million shares, and 4825.79 million shares respectively, with changes of 9.69 million shares, - 0.21 million shares, no change, no change, and 471.50 million shares respectively compared with August 22, 2025 [7]. - The net value of long - term interest - rate bond ETFs stabilized and rose slightly, while convertible bond ETFs showed a significant correction. As of August 29, 2025, the net values of 30 - year treasury bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible bond ETF changed by 0.26%, - 0.01%, 0.05%, 0.03%, and - 2.54% respectively compared with August 22, 2025; compared with the end - of - last - month close, they changed by - 2.21%, - 0.66%, - 0.19%, - 0.06%, and 4.17% respectively [10]. 1.3 Credit Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - The overall share of credit bond ETFs was stable, with only a slight outflow of 3.00 million shares from Boshi Credit Bond ETF. As of August 29, 2025, among the 8 existing credit bond ETFs, only Boshi Credit Bond ETF had a change of - 3.00 million shares, and the others remained unchanged [14]. - The net value of credit bond ETFs rebounded slightly. As of August 29, 2025, compared with August 22, 2025, the net values of the 8 credit bond ETFs changed with some showing no change and others having increases such as 0.01%, 0.04% etc. [16]. 1.4 Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - The shares of science and technology innovation bond ETFs were slightly differentiated. As of August 29, 2025, among the 10 existing science and technology innovation bond ETFs, some had share decreases such as - 1.16 million shares, - 2.80 million shares, - 0.73 million shares, while others had increases such as 3.00 million shares, 1.05 million shares, 1.00 million shares [19]. - The net value of science and technology innovation bond ETFs generally stopped falling and rose slightly. As of August 29, 2025, compared with August 22, 2025, most of the 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs had net value increases such as 0.01%, 0.02%, 0.03%, 0.04%, with only one showing a - 0.02% change [21]. - Last week, the PCF list repeatedly included 6 bonds such as 25 Postal K2. The top three bonds in the ranking of the product of the excess return change and the corresponding duration of each expanded bond were 25 Yuanrong K5, 25 Yuanrong K2, and 25 Yuehuan GK1, and the last three were 25 Shenneng K1, 25 Postal K2, and Jingzi K12 [22]. 1.5 Net Inflow of Some Bond ETFs - Convertible bond ETFs had the highest cumulative net inflow this week and this month. Weekly, the top three bond ETFs with cumulative net inflows were convertible bond ETF, short - term financing ETF, and benchmark treasury bond ETF; monthly, the top three were convertible bond ETF, Shanghai - Stock - Exchange convertible bond ETF, and urban investment bond ETF. In terms of cumulative trading days, the top three bond ETFs with cumulative net inflows in the past 10 trading days were convertible bond ETF (1135.76 million yuan), Shanghai - Stock - Exchange convertible bond ETF (188.22 million yuan), and 30 - year treasury bond ETF (48.71 million yuan); in the past 20 trading days, they were convertible bond ETF (1618.23 million yuan), Shanghai - Stock - Exchange convertible bond ETF (281.16 million yuan), and urban investment bond ETF (186.85 million yuan) [2][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the bond market is nearing its end, and it is likely to shift from a volatile to a stronger state in September. The short - term bonds may maintain excellent performance due to the continuous loose capital situation, while the long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may see a downward space as the upward slope of the equity market slows down. The interest rate may show a "moderate downward trend" [2][77][78] - The current investment strategy remains cautiously optimistic. The upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield in this adjustment is estimated to be between 1.80% - 1.85%. In the short term, the idea of "shortening the portfolio duration + preferentially allocating old bonds" may improve the portfolio's winning rate [2][78] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Matters - From January to July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and the operating income increased by 2.3% year - on - year. State - owned enterprises were the main drag, while private and foreign - invested enterprises showed better profit repair [5] - The Shanghai headquarters of the central bank adjusted the pricing mechanism of commercial personal housing loan interest rates in Shanghai, no longer distinguishing between first - and second - home mortgages [6] - Trump announced the removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and the legal outcome will affect the balance between the president's power over the Fed board and the central bank's independence [7] 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From August 25 to 29, 2025, the central bank's net injection of funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase was 196.1 billion yuan. From September 1 to 5, 2025, 227.31 billion yuan of basic currency is expected to mature and be withdrawn [10] - After the tax payment and government bond payment peaks, with the central bank's care for liquidity, the inter - bank liquidity has become looser. As of August 29, 2025, compared with August 22, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by - 2.82BP, 3.32BP, - 8.27BP, and 4.89BP respectively [14] 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, commercial bank certificates of deposit continued to be in a net financing state, with a net financing scale of - 194.66 billion yuan last week. As of the 35th week of 2025, the cumulative issuance scale of certificates of deposit for the whole year has reached 22.58 trillion yuan [19] - The issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit increased last week. The average issuance interest rates of 3 - month and 1 - year certificates of deposit for state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed to varying degrees compared with the previous week [22] - In the secondary market, most maturity certificate of deposit yields declined, and the 1Y - 3M term spread widened further [25] 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - From January to August, the net financing rhythm of local government bonds was faster than that of national bonds. As of August 29, 2025, the cumulative net financing scale of various national bonds was about 4.67 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 5.75 trillion yuan [28] - Last week, national bonds were not issued, and the issuance scale of local bonds and policy - financial bonds was basically the same as the previous week. The net financing amount of interest - rate bonds was 56.268 billion yuan [27][31] - As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 had reached 1.94 trillion yuan, mainly in long - and ultra - long - term maturities [34] 3.3.2 Secondary Market - The stock - bond "see - saw" effect reappeared last week. The long - term interest rate was at a disadvantage, and the curve steepness increased. The 10 - year Treasury bond's second - most active bond switched to 250016, and the 10 - year CDB bond completed the bond replacement [27][37][42] - The 10 - 1 - year Treasury bond term spread widened to 46.81BP, and the 30 - 1 - year Treasury bond term spread widened to 76.77BP [44] - The 10 - year local bond - 10 - year Treasury bond yield spread and the 30 - year local bond - 30 - year Treasury bond yield spread both narrowed [49] 3.4 Institution Behavior Tracking - The scale of leveraged trading decreased last week, with a weekly average of about 7.07 trillion yuan. Funds, insurance, and securities firms were the main buyers in the bond market, while rural commercial banks were net sellers [50][57][62] - The main trading desks' current average cost of adding positions in 10 - year Treasury bonds is above 1.74% [63] - Commercial banks and insurance companies can obtain relatively higher returns by investing in local bonds [70] 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased by 1.39% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained unchanged, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 0.62%, the cement price index decreased by 0.74%, and the South China Glass Index increased by 0.77% [72] - The CCFI index decreased by 1.58% week - on - week, and the BDI index increased by 4.17% week - on - week [72] - The wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.80% week - on - week, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 2.07% week - on - week [72] - The settlement prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil futures increased by 0.58% and 0.55% respectively week - on - week. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.10 [72] 3.6 Market Outlook - The bond market may strengthen in September. The short - term bonds will benefit from the loose capital, and the long - term bonds may see a downward space as the equity market's upward slope slows down. The interest rate may show a moderate downward trend [77][78] - The current investment strategy is to shorten the portfolio duration and preferentially allocate old bonds, and specific trading varieties can consider 250011 and 2500002 [78]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: GAN_GRU **Model Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU model combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for processing volume-price time-series features and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) for encoding time-series features to create a stock selection factor[4][13][41] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **GRU Component**: - Input features include 18 volume-price features such as closing price, opening price, turnover, and turnover rate[14][17][19] - Training data consists of the past 400 days of these features, sampled every 5 trading days, forming a 40x18 matrix to predict cumulative returns over the next 20 trading days[18] - Data preprocessing includes outlier removal and normalization at both time-series and cross-sectional levels[18] - Model architecture: Two GRU layers (128, 128) followed by an MLP (256, 64, 64), with the final output being the predicted return (pRet), which serves as the stock selection factor[22] - Training method: Semi-annual rolling training, with training conducted on June 30 and December 31 each year[18] - Optimization: Adam optimizer, learning rate of 1e-4, IC loss function, early stopping after 10 epochs, and a maximum of 50 training epochs[18] 2. **GAN Component**: - GAN consists of a generator (G) and a discriminator (D)[23] - Generator: Uses LSTM to preserve the time-series nature of the input features, transforming random noise into realistic data samples[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{G} = -\mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(D(G(z)))] $$ where \( z \) represents random noise, \( G(z) \) is the generated data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the discriminator's output probability[24][25] - Discriminator: Uses CNN to process the two-dimensional volume-price time-series features, distinguishing between real and generated data[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{D} = -\mathbb{E}_{x\sim P_{data}(x)}[\log D(x)] - \mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(1-D(G(z)))] $$ where \( x \) is real data, \( D(x) \) is the discriminator's output for real data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the output for generated data[27][29] - Training: Alternating updates of the generator and discriminator parameters until convergence[30] **Model Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU model effectively captures both time-series and cross-sectional features, leveraging the strengths of GAN and GRU for stock selection[4][13][41] --- Model Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Model**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: GAN_GRU Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Derived from the GAN_GRU model, this factor encodes volume-price time-series features to predict stock returns[4][13][41] **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is generated using the output of the GAN_GRU model, which combines GAN-based feature generation and GRU-based time-series encoding[4][13][41] - The factor undergoes industry and market capitalization neutralization, as well as standardization, before being used for testing[22] **Factor Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU factor demonstrates strong predictive power across various industries, with consistent outperformance in recent years[4][13][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Factor**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42]

[Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 08 月 28 日 证券研究报告•2025 年半年报点评 当前价：11.05 元 苏 美 达（600710）商贸零售 目标价：——元（6 个月） 船舶建造持续发力，柴油发电紧跟市场 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 117174.41 | 117320.32 | 121767.30 | 127985.90 | | 增长率 | -4.72% | 0.12% | 3.79% | 5.11% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 1148.35 | 1283.62 | 1417.64 | 1603.47 | | 增长率 | 11.53% | 11.78% | 10.44% | 13.11% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.88 | 0.98 | 1.08 | 1.23 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 22.43% | 21.58% | 19.62% | 18.58% | | P ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 08 月 25 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（8.18-8.22） 整体受压于利率上行，可转债 ETF 表现占优 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 各类债券 ETF 份额走势：上周国债类、可转债类 ETF 份额激增，信用债类 ETF份额转跌。截至 2025年 8月 22日收盘，国债类、政金债类、地方债类、 信用债类和可转债类份额较 2025 年 8 月 15 日收盘分别变化 61.29 百万份、 -23.71 百万份、无变化、-24.81百万份、520.30百万份，债券类 ETF合计变 化 533.07百万份；较上月底收盘分别变化 88.02百万份、-37.90百万份、-0.40 百万份、169.83百万份、10 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changhong Meiling is "Buy" (maintained) with a current price of 7.67 CNY and a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company has experienced rapid growth in export revenue, although impairment losses have impacted profits. The air conditioning business has been a key driver of revenue growth, supported by deepening ODM collaborations with clients like Xiaomi and expansion into emerging markets [5][6]. - The company reported a revenue of 18.07 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 420 million CNY, up 0.3% year-on-year [5]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will be 0.74 CNY, 0.86 CNY, and 1.00 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 18.07 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 20.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 420 million CNY, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 9.8% [5]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.71 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 240 million CNY, down 9.7% year-on-year [5]. Business Segments - The air conditioning segment continued to show strong growth, with revenues of 11.58 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.2%. The refrigerator and washing machine segments reported revenues of 4.55 billion CNY and 1.04 billion CNY, with year-on-year changes of -4.2% and +32.7% respectively [5]. - The company’s domestic and international sales achieved revenues of 11.7 billion CNY and 6.36 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.4% and 32.2% respectively [5]. Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for the home appliance business was 10.2%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix and a higher proportion of lower-margin overseas sales [5]. - The report indicates that various expenses and losses, including financial expenses and credit impairment losses, have eroded profits, with significant increases in asset impairment losses [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Economic and financial data weakness does not change the high - low switching trend between stocks and bonds, with stocks strong and bonds weak. The continuous net -回笼 of funds by the central bank from Monday to Thursday last week did not change the loose liquidity, and the central bank switched to net - injection on Friday. The loose funds support short - end interest rates, while long - end interest rates are rising due to the strong performance of the equity market [2][92]. - The Q2 2025 monetary policy report shows an attitude of liquidity care and emphasizes "preventing capital idling". The central bank may focus more on micro - level changes, improve the transmission efficiency of policy interest rates to market interest rates, and prevent capital idling in the next stage [2][11][93]. - Given the loose funds and strong stock market, the yield curve may become steeper. In the short term, short - term bonds perform well due to loose funds, while long - term bonds are at a disadvantage. In the long term, the interest rate center will decline, and the rigid demand of institutional investors will support bonds. The investment strategy is to "shorten portfolio duration + prioritize old bonds" [2][95]. Summary by Directory 1. Important Matters - On August 15, 2025, the central bank will conduct a 5000 - billion - yuan 6 - month买断式逆回购 operation, resulting in a net injection of 3000 billion yuan after the operation, as the August maturity scale is 9000 billion yuan [5]. - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued a personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, with detailed subsidy rules and a list of first - batch loan - handling institutions [7]. - The credit data in July 2025 was relatively weak. The cumulative social financing scale from January to July was 23.99 trillion yuan, with specific changes in various components compared to the previous year [8]. - The Q2 2025 monetary policy report was released on August 15, with changes in the next - stage monetary policy direction compared to the Q1 report, mainly focusing on implementing policies more precisely, improving interest rate transmission, and preventing capital idling [11]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From August 11 to 15, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day open - market operations had a net -回笼 of 4149 billion yuan. It is expected that 9318 billion yuan of base currency will be matured and withdrawn from August 18 to 22 [15][16]. - The funds were relatively loose last week, and the policy interest rate of the 7 - day open - market reverse repurchase was 1.40%. As of August 15, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 had specific changes compared to August 8, and their interest rate centers also changed [21]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, commercial bank certificates of deposit were in a net - financing - out state last week, with a net financing scale of - 1311.1 billion yuan. The state - owned banks had the largest issuance scale, and the 1 - year CD issuance rate of national and joint - stock banks dropped to around 1.62% - 1.63% [27][30]. - In the secondary market, due to the overall market weakness, the yields of CDs of all maturities were on the rise, and the 1Y - 3M term spread widened [34]. 3. Bond Market - In the primary market, on August 14, the marginal interest rate of the 3 - year treasury bond (250015) was 1.4600%, and the net - financing rhythm of local government bonds from January to August was faster than that of treasury bonds. The supply of local bonds from August to September may have a relatively long average maturity. Last week, the issuance and net - financing scale of interest - rate bonds decreased [38][45]. - As of August 15, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 reached 1.89 trillion yuan, mainly in long - and ultra - long - term maturities, with certain regional differences in issuance [47]. - In the secondary market, the strong performance of the equity market last week led to a weak bond market. The short - end interest rates were supported by low - level running funds, and the curve steepened further. The trading volume and turnover rate of 10 - year treasury and CDB active bonds increased, and the term spread and the spread between national and local bonds had specific changes [50][54][57]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - In July, the institutional leverage ratio decreased seasonally and was at a relatively low level compared to the same period due to the upward - fluctuating bond market. The trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was relatively high last week [66][71]. - In the cash - bond market, state - owned banks increased their holdings of treasury bonds with maturities within 5 years, rural commercial banks increased their holdings of treasury bonds with maturities over 5 years and CDB bonds with maturities of 5 - 10 years, while securities firms and funds were net sellers, and funds mainly reduced their holdings of long - term bonds [66][76]. - The current average cost of major trading desks for adding positions in 10 - year treasury bonds is above 1.70%, with rural commercial banks' cost decreasing due to large - scale position - adding [79]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar futures decreased by 1.47% week - on - week, wire rod futures remained flat, cathode copper futures increased by 1.01%, the cement price index decreased by 1.05%, and the Nanhua Glass Index decreased by 1.58%. The CCFI index decreased by 0.62%, and the BDI index increased by 2.26%. The wholesale price of pork decreased by 3.00%, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 3.94%. Brent crude oil futures increased by 8.88%, and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.61%. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.14 [90]. 6. Market Outlook - The high - low switching trend between stocks and bonds will continue. The central bank's liquidity operations maintain loose funds, supporting short - end interest rates and causing long - end interest rates to rise due to the strong equity market [2][92]. - The central bank may focus on micro - level changes and improve the transmission efficiency of interest rates in the next - stage monetary policy, while preventing capital idling [2][93]. - The yield curve may become steeper in the short term. In the long term, the interest rate center will decline, and the investment strategy is to "shorten portfolio duration + prioritize old bonds" [2][95].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the share of treasury bond ETFs significantly rebounded, while the growth momentum of credit bond and convertible bond ETFs continued. Convertible bond ETFs showed outstanding performance with an increase in share and net value, as well as the highest cumulative net inflow [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - As of August 15, 2025, the shares of treasury bond, policy - financial bond, local bond, credit bond, and convertible bond ETFs were 555.45 million, 491.75 million, 79.78 million, 3101.15 million, and 4675.35 million respectively, with a total of 8903.48 million for bond - type ETFs. Compared with August 8, 2025, the changes were 37.52 million, - 9.28 million, - 1.60 million, 40.77 million, and 241.90 million respectively, and the total change for bond - type ETFs was 309.32 million. Compared with the end of last month, the changes were 26.72 million, - 14.39 million, - 0.40 million, 194.64 million, and 490.20 million respectively, and the total change for bond - type ETFs was 696.78 million [2][5]. 1.2 主要债券 ETF 份额走势 - The share changes of major bond ETFs were consistent with those of various bond ETFs. As of August 15, 2025, the shares of selected major bond ETFs changed by 24.50 million, - 8.58 million, - 1.00 million, 25.20 million, and 236.30 million respectively compared with the previous week's closing [2][7]. - The share trend of credit bond ETFs was gentle. As of August 15, 2025, among the 8 existing credit bond ETFs, most showed no change compared with the previous week's closing, except for one with a 0.30 - million increase [2][10]. - The share performance of individual science - innovation bond ETFs was differentiated, but the overall growth was maintained. As of August 15, 2025, among the 10 existing science - innovation bond ETFs, the share changes compared with the previous week's closing were - 1.25 million, 0.44 million, 40.15 million, - 0.25 million, no change, no change, 0.10 million, 3.40 million, 0.05 million, and no change respectively [2][13]. 1.3 主要债券 ETF 净值走势 - Last week, the net values of major bond ETFs turned down, while convertible bond ETFs rose against the trend. As of August 15, 2025, the net values of selected major bond ETFs changed by - 1.75%, - 0.48%, - 0.12%, - 0.08%, and 1.56% respectively compared with the previous week's closing [2][15]. - The net values of credit bond ETFs declined across the board. As of August 15, 2025, the net values of 8 credit bond ETFs changed by - 0.14%, - 0.14%, - 0.13%, - 0.12%, - 0.18%, - 0.18%, - 0.19%, and - 0.18% respectively compared with the previous week's closing [2][17]. - The net values of science - innovation bond ETFs slightly declined. As of August 15, 2025, the net values of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs changed by - 0.16%, - 0.13%, - 0.16%, - 0.17%, - 0.15%, - 0.18%, - 0.17%, - 0.12%, - 0.16%, and - 0.15% respectively compared with the previous week's closing [2][21]. 1.4 部分债券 ETF 净流入情况 - Convertible bond ETFs had the highest cumulative net inflow last week and this month. Weekly, the top three bond ETFs with cumulative net inflows were convertible bond ETFs, urban investment bond ETFs, and 30 - year treasury bond ETFs, with net inflow amounts of 313.03 million yuan, 36.12 million yuan, and 31.13 million yuan respectively. Monthly, the top three were convertible bond ETFs, urban investment bond ETFs, and Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bond ETFs, with net inflow amounts of 556.90 million yuan, 197.80 million yuan, and 86.56 million yuan respectively. In terms of cumulative trading days, the top three in the past 10 trading days were convertible bond ETFs (481.93 million yuan), urban investment bond ETFs (186.62 million yuan), and Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bond ETFs (92.76 million yuan); and in the past 20 trading days, they were convertible bond ETFs (1096.32 million yuan), urban investment bond ETFs (242.94 million yuan), and Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bond ETFs (152.66 million yuan) [2][24].

Domestic Policies - The US-China trade talks resulted in a 90-day suspension of a 24% tariff on each other's goods, effective August 12, 2025[6] - A personal consumption loan subsidy policy was introduced, offering a 1% annual interest subsidy for loans used for consumption from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026[8] - A service industry loan subsidy policy was also announced, providing a 1% annual interest subsidy for loans to eight specified service sectors, with a maximum loan amount of 1 million yuan per entity[11] Economic Indicators - China's final consumption expenditure contributed 52.0% to economic growth in the first half of 2025, up 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter[10] - In July, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI increased by 3.1%, exceeding expectations[19] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US for July recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, surpassing market expectations of 2.9%[19] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.05% week-on-week, while iron ore prices rose by 0.11% and copper prices increased by 0.95%[23] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 2.12% week-on-week, with first-tier cities seeing a 2.82% rise[33] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of August decreased by 4% year-on-year, despite a 6% increase compared to the previous month[33] Future Outlook - The upcoming focus includes the US NAHB housing market index and new housing starts data, as well as the Jackson Hole global central bank conference later in August[2] - The market anticipates a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by recent economic data and inflation trends[21]