xxBING 2026 年 01 月 31 日 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业周报（1.26-1.30） 创新药 BD 预期落地，建议关注低位创新药、脑机接口、AI 医疗 投资要点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 联系人：王钰玮 电话：021-68415819 邮箱：wangyuwei@swsc.com.cn 行业相对指数表现 [Table_QuotePic] -6% 2% 10% 18% 26% 34% 25/1 25/3 25/5 25/7 25/9 25/11 26/1 医药生物 沪深300 | 数据来源：聚源数据 | | --- | | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [股票家数 Table_BaseData] | 366 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 52,861.60 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 48,153.47 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 37.3 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 14.2 | 相关研究 请 ...

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2026 年 01 月 30 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（1.26-1.30） 工业企业利润稳健增长，美联储如期暂停降息 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：工业企业利润增速转正，税制改革聚焦科技和制造业。1 月 26 日，商 务部宣布将启动建设数字贸易示范区，同时完善跨境服务贸易负面清单管理， 数字贸易和服务贸易领域将成为外贸稳增长的重要支撑；27日，数据显示 2025 年全年工业企业利润同比增长 0.6%，高技术制造业等新兴领域增速提升明显， 2026 年全年工业企业利润有望稳中有升；28日，全国税务工作会议召开，2025 年全国税费总额达 33.1 万亿元、同比增 0.9%。2026 年税制改革的核心是平 衡央地财政关系、优化税制结构，相关政策效应释放后，地方税收基础将进一 步巩固；同日，国资委在国新办新闻发布会上介绍 2025年国资央企发展情况， 并明确了支持新兴产业和推进央企并购重组的目标，后续国资委与中央企业将 推动国有资本向新兴产业集聚，将央企打造成培养新质生产力的主力军。 海外：美日联合干预汇市，美联储如期暂停降息。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [3]. Core Insights - The top five sectors with the highest excess returns for long positions in January 2026 (excluding comprehensive) are Defense and Military, Communication, Agriculture, Home Appliances, and Electric Equipment & New Energy, with excess returns of 11.41%, 8.40%, 7.85%, 6.01%, and 4.98% respectively [2]. - Over the past year, the sectors with the highest average monthly excess returns (excluding comprehensive) are Real Estate, Home Appliances, Retail, Construction, and Defense and Military, with excess returns of 2.17%, 2.09%, 1.69%, 1.69%, and 1.58% respectively [2]. - The GAN_GRU factor has shown a mean Information Coefficient (IC) of 0.1107 and an annualized excess return of 22.36% from January 2019 to January 2026 [41]. - As of January 28, 2026, the latest IC for the GAN_GRU factor is 0.0003, with a one-year mean IC of 0.0553 [41]. - The top five sectors based on the recent IC performance of the GAN_GRU factor are Defense and Military, Construction, Real Estate, Banking, and Communication, with IC values of 0.3498, 0.2478, 0.2165, 0.1993, and 0.1976 respectively [41]. - The long position combination based on the GAN_GRU factor has shown the highest excess returns in the sectors of Defense and Military, Communication, Agriculture, Home Appliances, and Electric Equipment & New Energy [45]. Summary by Sections GAN_GRU Model Overview - The GAN_GRU model utilizes Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for processing time-series features and GRU for encoding these features into stock selection factors [4][13]. GAN_GRU Factor Performance - The GAN_GRU factor has demonstrated significant performance metrics, including a mean IC of 0.1107 and an annualized excess return of 22.36% [41]. - The recent IC rankings for various sectors indicate strong performance in Defense and Military, Construction, and Real Estate [41][45]. Long Position Combinations - The report lists the top ten stocks selected based on the GAN_GRU factor, including companies like Xinhua Insurance, Guanghong Technology, and Guangdong Expressway [50].

Group 1: New Economy Overview - The "new economy" is characterized by information technology and globalization, driven by technological and institutional innovations, representing a profound transformation in economic structure and development methods[2] - In 2024, the value added of the "three new" economies (new industries, new business formats, new models) is projected to reach 24.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 18.01% of GDP, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from the previous year[10] - The third industry constitutes 54.7% of the "three new" economy, highlighting the active role of the new economy in the service sector[10] Group 2: Industrial Sector Insights - The report constructs a monitoring system for the industrial sector's economic climate, focusing on key areas such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace[2] - The industrial sector's economic climate is stabilizing and entering a new cycle, with the manufacturing PMI showing recovery trends since 2020, particularly in high-tech industries[2] - Key industries are experiencing differentiated growth, with the communication equipment sector rebounding strongly, while the computer and home appliance sectors are still seeking a bottom[2] Group 3: Risk Factors - Potential risks include fluctuations in domestic and international economic cycles, adjustments in industrial policies, and geopolitical risks[2]

[Table_StockInfo] 2026 年 01 月 26 日 证券研究报告•公司动态跟踪报告 新 大 正（002968）房地产 目标价：17.76 元（6 个月） 买入 （维持） 当前价：13.76 元 经营提效与并购增利并进，迈入发展新阶段 | 指标/年度 [Table_MainProfit] | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 3387.20 | 3719.76 | 7470.47 | 8070.84 | | 增长率 | 8.32% | 9.82% | 100.83% | 8.04% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 113.77 | 119.24 | 251.27 | 298.31 | | 增长率 | -28.95% | 4.80% | 110.72% | 18.72% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.50 | 0.53 | 1.11 | 1.32 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 10.12% | 9.84% | 11.97% | 12.85% | | PE ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in consumer spending, particularly in the tourism sector, with domestic tourism expected to grow significantly in 2025, with a projected increase of 16.2% in travel volume and 9.5% in tourism revenue [4][24] - The human resources sector is poised for growth due to ongoing government support and the integration of AI technologies, which are expected to enhance efficiency and reduce operational burdens [4][40] - The sports industry is set to expand rapidly, with clear policy direction aiming for a total industry scale of 7 trillion yuan by 2030, indicating substantial growth potential [4][59] Tourism Industry - The domestic tourism market is projected to maintain high growth rates, with urban residents expected to travel 4.996 billion times, a 14.3% increase, and rural residents 1.526 billion times, a 22.6% increase in 2025 [24][27] - Despite the growth, the tourism sector has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, with tourism revenue as a percentage of GDP at only 4.5% in 2025, compared to 5.7% in 2019 [27][28] - Consumer willingness to spend on tourism remains strong, with tourism consumption ranking first among various spending categories [31][30] Human Resources Industry - The human resources sector is characterized as a strong cyclical industry, benefiting from macroeconomic recovery and increasing demand for flexible labor solutions [33][38] - The penetration rate of flexible employment in China is significantly lower than in developed countries, indicating substantial growth potential as the market matures [48][49] - Government policies are increasingly supportive of the human resources sector, with a focus on protecting the rights of flexible workers and enhancing the overall market environment [38][40] Sports Industry - The sports industry is expected to see accelerated growth, with the total industry scale projected to reach 3.8 trillion yuan by 2024, and a target of 7 trillion yuan by 2030 [59][56] - The government's "National Fitness Plan" aims to increase the sports industry's contribution to GDP, with a target of 2% by 2025 [59][56] - The expansion of sports events, including new golf tournaments, is anticipated to drive growth and diversify revenue streams for companies in the sector [67][69] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Huangshan Tourism (600054.SH) and Lisheng Sports (002858.SZ), which are expected to benefit from favorable policies and market conditions [4][64][67] - Huangshan Tourism is projected to see revenue growth of 13.05% in 2025, with a net profit increase of 19.83% [64] - Lisheng Sports is expected to achieve significant revenue growth of 30.02% in 2025, with a turnaround to profitability anticipated [67]

Group 1: Geopolitical Trends - The intensification of global power competition has highlighted the security and scarcity of strategic minerals, leading to a continuous reassessment of their value as core assets in geopolitical games[3] - The U.S. has added copper and silicon to its list of critical minerals and plans to establish a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" to secure these resources[3] - Strategic resources such as copper, silver, lithium, cobalt, nickel, gallium, germanium, palladium, silicon, tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are expected to experience significant price volatility, especially during periods of heightened geopolitical risk[3] Group 2: Economic Relationships - The U.S. remains the primary trading partner for Latin America, with exports to the U.S. rising from approximately $198.61 billion in 2002 to $599.97 billion in 2023, although the share of total exports has decreased from 57% to 44%[26] - In contrast, exports to China have increased significantly, from $6.5 billion in 2002 to approximately $192.8 billion in 2023, raising its share of total exports from less than 2% to around 14%[26] - The U.S. is still the largest investor in Latin America, with investments accounting for about 38% of total foreign direct investment in 2024, up from 34% in 2023[33] Group 3: Political Dynamics - The political landscape in Latin America is shifting rightward, influenced by economic stagnation and increased U.S. geopolitical influence, with significant elections expected in 2026[6] - The U.S. has engaged in a series of trade agreements with Latin American countries, emphasizing comprehensive, secure, and exclusive frameworks to prevent non-Western competitors from accessing critical assets and supply chains[20] - The Trump administration's "Monroe Doctrine" has re-emerged, focusing on military threats and trade ties to consolidate U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere[12]

Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous prosperity of AI applications across various sectors, including gaming, advertising, and education, with significant advancements in multi-modal interaction and video generation technologies [3][31][34] - The gaming market is projected to show steady growth in 2025, driven by quality content and IP, with a notable increase in the issuance of game licenses, totaling 1,772 for the year, which injects vitality into the industry [3][16][18] - The film industry is expected to recover, with short dramas and AI-generated content gaining popularity, while the overall film market is projected to reach a total box office of 51.82 billion yuan, a 21.9% increase year-on-year [4][54][58] AI Applications - AI applications are thriving, with products like Ant Group's Lingguang, Tencent's Mixuan Game 2.0, and Kuaishou's Keling driving content creation and marketing [3][31][37] - The report emphasizes the importance of user growth, technological iteration, and commercialization progress in the AI sector [3][31] Gaming Sector - The gaming market in China is expected to achieve a sales revenue of 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.68% [16] - The report notes a significant increase in the number of game licenses issued, with 1,676 domestic and 96 imported licenses granted in 2025, indicating a robust supply [18] - Innovative gameplay, such as the "search, fight, retreat" model, is highlighted as a key driver for user growth, with successful titles like "Delta Force" and "Supernatural Action Group" leading the way [24][21] Film and Television Sector - The short drama market is projected to grow significantly, with an estimated market size of 533 billion yuan in 2025, a 113% increase from 2024 [4][67] - The film market is expected to recover, with a total box office of 51.82 billion yuan in 2025, supported by strong performances from both blockbuster and mid-tier films [54][58] - The report indicates that the television industry may see a revival due to new policies from the National Radio and Television Administration, which aim to increase content supply [63] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main areas for investment in 2026: AI applications, gaming, and both short and long dramas [4][81] - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Kaiying Network, which is expected to benefit from new game launches and ongoing AI application developments [4][80]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The net - outflow trend of bond ETF funds continues but the amplitude narrows, and the capital flow is expected to return to normal. The current continuous capital outflow is mainly due to the inertia of year - end impulse funds withdrawal. With the bond market warming up and the release of the "good start" allocation demand in the first quarter, the capital flow of bond ETFs is expected to be supported after short - term disturbances subside [2][5]. - The net - outflow pressure of credit - bond ETFs is gradually easing, while convertible - bond ETFs continue to receive net inflows, which may reflect the trend of some funds switching between major asset classes during the adjustment of the equity market [6]. - The share of convertible - bond ETFs has increased significantly, and the net value of major bond ETFs has generally risen, with convertible - bond ETFs leading the gains [16][21]. Summary by Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 - The net - outflow situation of bond ETFs continues, but the amplitude narrows. Last week, the net inflows of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 63.01 billion yuan, - 116.48 billion yuan, and + 23.05 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of - 156.44 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. As of January 23, 2026, the bond ETF fund scale was 734.575 billion yuan, down 1.79% from the previous week and 11.41% from the beginning of the year, but its proportion in the whole - market ETF scale increased by 40bp [5]. - The net - outflow pressure of credit - bond ETFs eases. The science - innovation bond ETF has had the largest net outflows for three consecutive weeks after a large inflow at the end of last year, with a net outflow of 6.86 billion yuan last week, and the outflow scale narrowed slightly compared with the previous week. Convertible - bond ETFs continued to receive net inflows of 2.305 billion yuan [6]. 1.2 各类债券 ETF 份额及代表产品净值走势 - The share of convertible - bond ETFs increased significantly. As of the close on January 23, 2026, the shares of various types of bond ETFs changed by - 5.5%, - 5.1%, - 1.1%, - 4.5%, - 2.5%, 0.0%, 0.5%, 0.0%, and 3.2% respectively compared with the previous week, with a total change of - 4.8% for bond - type ETFs [16]. - The net value of major bond ETFs generally rose, with convertible - bond ETFs leading the gains. As of the close on January 23, 2026, the net values of selected representative bond ETFs changed by 1.17%, 0.30%, 0.09%, 0.06%, 0.04%, 0.08%, and 2.88% respectively compared with the previous week [21]. 1.3 各基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The share of Company Bond ETF Southern had the largest outflow. As of the close on January 23, 2026, the shares of 8 existing credit - bond ETFs changed by no change, - 5.35%, - 3.42%, - 2.03%, - 7.67%, - 6.82%, - 3.27%, and - 2.18% respectively compared with the previous week [25]. - The net value rose slightly, with Credit Bond ETF leading the gains. As of the close on January 23, 2026, the net values of 8 credit - bond ETFs changed by 0.14%, 0.11%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.14%, 0.12%, 0.15%, and 0.13% respectively compared with the previous week [27]. 1.4 各科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The shares of Science - Innovation Bond ETF Bank of China and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Invesco increased slightly. The net share inflow of 24 existing science - innovation bond ETFs last week was - 68.49 million shares, a decrease of 2.27% compared with the previous week [30][31]. - The net value continued to rise. As of the close on January 23, 2026, the average net values of the first - and second - batch science - innovation bond ETFs increased by 0.11% and 0.11% respectively compared with the previous week. The median net values of products tracking relevant indexes also had certain increases [33]. 1.5 上周单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 - Benefiting from the strengthening of the bond market, the net values of bond ETF products generally rose. Convertible - bond ETF, Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible - Bond ETF, and 30 - Year Treasury Bond ETF Bosera led the gains, with increases of 2.88%, 2.40%, and 1.26% respectively [36]. - In terms of the premium - discount rate, Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible - Bond ETF, Convertible - Bond ETF, and Treasury Bond ETF had leading premium rates, while the discount of benchmark - market - making credit - bond and science - innovation bond ETFs intensified. In terms of scale changes, most bond ETF products' scales decreased, but Convertible - Bond ETF (+ 2.456 billion yuan), Short - Term Financing ETF (+ 0.309 billion yuan), and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Bank of China (+ 0.2 billion yuan) had positive net inflows and ranked among the top three [36]. 1.6 基准做市信用债和科创债 ETF 的 PCF 清单边际变化 - The estimated change of the modified duration of benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs last week was small. For products tracking relevant indexes, the average modified duration of newly added bonds in the PCF list of some ETFs was significantly longer than their own modified duration [38]. - The estimated change of the modified duration of Science - Innovation Bond ETF Huatai - PineBridge, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Harvest, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Fullgoal was relatively large. For products tracking different indexes, the average modified duration of newly added bonds in the PCF list of some ETFs was significantly longer than that of similar bonds [39]. - Bonds such as 25 Jiangtong K1, Jingzi K15, and 24 Tiegong K4 were repeatedly included in the PCF list of science - innovation bond ETFs, while 23 Jili K1, 25 Jingdong SK, 25 Shudao K3, and Jiancai K13 were removed by multiple science - innovation bond ETFs [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market showed significant structural differentiation, influenced by macro - economic data and central bank liquidity operations. The "broad money" expectation may become the short - term trading focus, and the "stabilizer" effect of banks continues to work, with bonds within 10 years likely to be more stable. Liquidity abundance is expected to support the bond market to stabilize [2]. - In the context of the macro - economy still in the recovery stage and the need to boost the upward slope of prices, the central bank needs to maintain sufficient liquidity to support the real economy effectively [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Important Matters - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% in real terms, with the fourth - quarter real GDP growing by 4.5% and the nominal GDP growing by 3.85%, and the gap between nominal and real GDP growth rates narrowed [5]. - In January 2026, the central bank's MLF net injection was 70 billion yuan, and the medium - and long - term base money net injection in January reached 1 trillion yuan [2][8]. - Six major banks announced the optimization of personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policies, including extending the implementation period, expanding the scope of support, and increasing subsidy standards [12][13]. - The central bank governor said that in 2026, the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [14]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Funds Rate Trends - From January 19 to 23, 2026, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net injection of 22.95 billion yuan. It is expected that 138.1 billion yuan of base money will be withdrawn from circulation from January 26 to 30 [16]. - Towards the end of January, the money market tightened marginally, and DR001 briefly exceeded the 1.3% - 1.4% operating range. As of January 23, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by 9.20BP, 2.23BP, 7.84BP, and 5.05BP respectively compared with January 16 [18]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, last week, the CD issuance scale was 589.49 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 116.9 billion yuan. The CD issuance scale of city commercial banks was the largest, with a net financing of 72.72 billion yuan. The CD issuance interest rates of most institutions decreased compared with the previous week [24][28][30]. - In the secondary market, last week, CD interest rates generally declined under the background of loose liquidity. The 1Y - 3M spread of AAA - rated CDs was at the 47.07% quantile level [34]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - In early 2026, the issuance rhythm of national bonds accelerated compared with the same period in 2025, and the net financing scale of national bonds over 10 years was also higher than that from 2023 - 2025. The supply rhythm of central finance accelerated, mainly due to the issuance of discount national bonds and coupon - bearing national bonds in 2026 and the re - issuance of some coupon - bearing national bonds in 2025 [36]. - Last week, the supply scale of interest - rate bonds increased significantly. The net financing of national bonds, local bonds, and policy - bank bonds was 344.3 billion yuan, 222.37 billion yuan, and 187.5 billion yuan respectively. As of January 23, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2026 reached 250 billion yuan, mainly in long - term and ultra - long - term bonds [43][45]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - Large - scale banks continued to prefer national bonds within 10 years, which supported medium - and short - term interest rates. The central bank's continuous large - scale MLF injection maintained abundant liquidity, and the term spread was compressed. The yields of national bonds and policy - bank bonds of various maturities changed to different degrees, and the implied tax rate of 10 - year policy - bank bonds decreased slightly [48]. - The average daily turnover rates of the 10 - year national bond active bond (250016) and the 10 - year policy - bank bond active bond (250215) decreased. The average spread between the 10 - year national bond active bond (250016) and the secondary - active bond (250022) increased by 0.03BP, indicating that the liquidity premium is tilting towards 250022 [50][52]. - The 10 - 1 - year and 30 - 1 - year national bond term spreads narrowed, and the long - term and ultra - long - term local - national bond spreads also narrowed [56][57]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - In December 2025, the institutional leverage ratio increased seasonally. Banks and other institutions increased their leverage, while securities firms reduced their leverage. The 20 - day moving average of the single - day trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.87 trillion yuan last week, showing a "first rising, then falling" trend [63][65]. - In the cash - bond market, large - scale banks still preferred to increase their holdings of 5 - 10 - year national bonds, but the net purchase scale decreased significantly. Small - and medium - sized banks continued to reduce their holdings of 5 - 10 - year national bonds and policy - bank bonds. Insurance companies significantly increased their holdings of national bonds and local bonds over 10 years, and funds increased their holdings of 5 - 10 - year policy - bank bonds and national bonds over 10 years [63][72]. - The replenishment willingness of small - and medium - sized banks, securities firms, funds, and other institutions was relatively weak last week. The current replenishment costs of major trading desks vary significantly [75]. - Considering capital occupation and tax costs, commercial banks and insurance companies can obtain relatively higher returns by investing in local bonds due to the relatively high spread between local bonds and national bonds [84]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar, wire rod, and cathode copper futures, the cement price index, and the South China Glass Index decreased compared with the previous week. The CCFI index decreased slightly, while the BDI index increased by 12.44%. The wholesale prices of pork and vegetables increased, and the settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased slightly. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.99 [88][89]. 3.6 Future Outlook - The "stabilizer" effect of banks continues to work, and bonds within 10 years are likely to be more stable. Although the ultra - long - term interest rate theoretically has more room, its stability is weaker than that of bonds within 10 years [90]. - Abundant liquidity is expected to support the bond market to stabilize. In the short term, the bond market is mainly in a recovery phase, with a low possibility of a trend - like decline. It is recommended to gradually take profits from band trading and choose national bonds within 10 years, especially the 10 - year national bond active bond (250016) [91].