1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market in July may show a volatile and bullish trend. The fundamentals may not significantly interfere with the bond market. The market has already anticipated the good performance of the first - half economic data, and the impact of tariffs on bond market pricing has diminished. The logic of the bond market in July may revolve around capital prices, fiscal supply, and institutional demand. The capital market is expected to remain loose under the central bank's care, but short - term interest rates may not break through significantly before the central bank restarts Treasury bond purchases. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields may face resistance at 1.6% and 1.8% respectively. The market is likely to maintain a volatile and bullish trend before a new round of interest - rate cut expectations. Investment strategies can consider a "short - credit + long - local - bond" portfolio for allocation, and choose the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond (250011) and 30 - year Treasury bond active bond (2500002) for trading [6][34]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 7 - Month Bond Market: The Beginning of Breaking the Situation - **Economic Situation**: In the first half of 2025, the domestic economy showed a steady recovery. The average growth rate of social financing stock from January to May was about 8.4%, with an increasing year - on - year growth rate. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods as of May was 6.4%, 2.77 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. The average export growth rate from January to May was about 5.64%, and it was expected to perform well in June. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment generally remained in the range of 4% - 5% [4][10]. - **Monetary Policy**: After the quarter - end, the monetary policy is expected to support the continued loose liquidity. Although July is a large tax - payment period with potential local - bond supply pressure, the central bank has sufficient policy tools and space to deal with it. Tools such as restarting Treasury bond purchases and reserve - requirement ratio cuts may be considered, and the possibility of early policy implementation has increased. The capital market in July is expected to remain loose [4][20]. - **Institutional Demand**: Banks and insurance companies may still have a demand for bond replenishment at the beginning of July. Insurance companies may have more room to increase their investment in July as the ceiling of the predetermined interest rate of life - insurance products may be lowered in the third quarter, which is expected to increase premium income and support their allocation willingness, but the support for ultra - long - term Treasury bonds may be limited [4][26][29]. - **Political Bureau Meeting**: The July Political Bureau Meeting may focus more on economic development, and the policy direction is unlikely to change. It may continue to require fiscal and monetary policies to support economic stability and emphasize the tone and implementation direction of monetary policy in 2025 and fiscal incremental measures [31]. 3.2 Important Matters - **Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Expectation**: On June 24, local time, Fed Chairman Powell did not rule out the possibility of an early interest - rate cut when answering questions from members of Congress, which increased the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut [35]. - **MLF Operation in June**: On June 24, the central bank announced a 300 - billion - yuan MLF operation on June 25, with a net investment of 118 billion yuan considering the maturity scale [38]. 3.3 Money Market - **Open - Market Operations and Capital Interest - Rate Trends**: From June 23 to 27, the central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 126.72 billion yuan. From June 30 to July 4, it is expected that 202.75 billion yuan of base currency will be withdrawn, all from reverse - repurchase maturities. The 7 - day pledged - repurchase interest rate rose significantly near the quarter - end [40][43]. - **Certificate of Deposit Interest - Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume**: Last week, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was - 411.25 billion yuan. The primary - market issuance was mainly by city commercial banks. The issuance interest rate decreased compared with the previous week, and the secondary - market yields of all - term certificates of deposit increased [48][54]. 3.4 Bond Market - **Primary Market**: Last week, the issuance scale of local new special bonds increased significantly, promoting the acceleration of the net financing rhythm of long - term local bonds. The issuance scale of Treasury bonds decreased, but the issuance result of the 30 - year ultra - long - term special Treasury bond was good. The total issuance of interest - rate bonds was 867.64 billion yuan, with a net financing of 815.818 billion yuan [57][59]. - **Secondary Market**: The market showed a bullish and steep trend of "short - term down, long - term up". The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds changed by - 1.00BP, - 0.69BP, 0.40BP, 2.85BP, 0.66BP, and 1.20BP respectively. The trading volume and turnover rate of 10 - year Treasury and CDB active bonds decreased. The spread between the 10 - year Treasury active bond and the second - active bond narrowed, and the term spread and the spread between long - term local bonds and Treasury bonds widened [64][66][72]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Leveraged Trading and Spot - Bond Market Transactions**: Last week, the leveraged trading scale decreased as the capital price increased. In the spot - bond market, state - owned banks continued to increase their holdings of Treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years, but the intensity weakened. Rural commercial banks switched to bond - replenishment operations, with a net purchase of 45.4 billion yuan. Securities firms and insurance companies increased their purchases of long - term Treasury bonds, and funds continued to increase their holdings but with reduced intensity [79][87]. - **Institutional Leverage Ratio**: In May 2025, the overall leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.46%, slightly higher than that in April. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities firms, and other institutions were about 110.53%, 183.89%, and 131.06% respectively [79]. - **Trading - Desk Information**: The current average cost of major trading desks for adding positions in 10 - year Treasury bonds is between 1.64% and 1.65%. The average duration of all pure - bond funds and high - performing pure - bond funds increased slightly last week [91][97].

Quantitative Factor and Model Analysis Quantitative Models and Construction 1. **Model Name**: GAN_GRU Model **Model Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU model combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for generating realistic price-volume sequential features and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) for encoding these sequential features into predictive signals for stock selection [2][9]. **Model Construction Process**: - **GRU Component**: - Input features include 18 price-volume features such as closing price, opening price, turnover, and turnover rate [10][13]. - Training data consists of the past 400 trading days' features, sampled every 5 trading days, forming a 40x18 feature matrix to predict the cumulative return over the next 20 trading days [14]. - Data preprocessing includes outlier removal and standardization at both time-series and cross-sectional levels [14]. - The GRU network consists of two layers (GRU(128, 128)) followed by an MLP (256, 64, 64), with the final output being the predicted return (pRet) [18]. - **GAN Component**: - The generator (G) uses an LSTM model to preserve the sequential nature of the input features, while the discriminator (D) employs a CNN to process the two-dimensional price-volume feature "images" [29][32]. - The generator's loss function is: $$ L_{G} = -\mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(D(G(z)))] $$ where \( z \) represents random noise, \( G(z) \) is the generated data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the discriminator's output probability [20][21]. - The discriminator's loss function is: $$ L_{D} = -\mathbb{E}_{x\sim P_{data}(x)}[\log D(x)] - \mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(1-D(G(z)))] $$ where \( x \) is real data, \( D(x) \) is the discriminator's output for real data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the output for generated data [23][25]. - Training alternates between updating the discriminator and generator parameters until convergence [26]. **Model Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU model effectively captures both sequential and cross-sectional price-volume features, leveraging the strengths of GANs and GRUs for stock selection [2][9][29]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. **Factor Name**: GAN_GRU Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU factor is derived from the GAN_GRU model's output, representing the encoded price-volume sequential features as a stock selection signal [2][9]. **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is derived from the predicted return (pRet) output of the GAN_GRU model [18]. - The factor undergoes industry and market capitalization neutralization, followed by standardization [18]. **Factor Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU factor demonstrates strong predictive power across various industries, with consistent performance in both IC and excess returns [36][40]. --- Model Backtest Results 1. **GAN_GRU Model**: - **IC Mean**: 11.54% - **ICIR**: 0.89 - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83 - **Recent IC**: 8.34% - **1-Year IC Mean**: 11.09% - **Annualized Return**: 37.71% - **Annualized Volatility**: 24.95% - **IR**: 1.56 - **Max Drawdown**: 27.29% - **Annualized Excess Return**: 24.95% [36][37]. --- Factor Backtest Results 1. **GAN_GRU Factor**: - **IC Mean**: 11.54% - **ICIR**: 0.89 - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83 - **Recent IC**: 8.34% - **1-Year IC Mean**: 11.09% - **Annualized Return**: 37.71% - **Annualized Volatility**: 24.95% - **IR**: 1.56 - **Max Drawdown**: 27.29% - **Annualized Excess Return**: 24.95% [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the robotics industry as of June 29, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The robotics index outperformed the market, increasing by 4.9%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.0 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 2.9 percentage points, while lagging behind the ChiNext Index by 0.8 percentage points [5][12]. - Linyi Intelligent Manufacturing held a strategic conference showcasing its "three-in-one" strategy in robotics, aiming to become a top three global manufacturer in embodied intelligent hardware, with 16 partners and over 100 intended orders [5][16]. - Galaxy General completed a financing round of 1.1 billion yuan, led by CATL, enhancing its strategic collaboration for the application of embodied intelligent models [5][18]. - Stand Robotics submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to provide customized robotic solutions for smart factories [5][20]. - Lingbao CASBOT secured nearly 100 million yuan in angel financing, focusing on the integration of technology, products, and scenarios [5][21]. - Feixi Technology announced the completion of a Series C financing round, with funds allocated for expansion, research and development, and ecosystem development [5][23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The robotics index rose by 4.9% during the week of June 23-29, 2025, outperforming major indices [12]. Industry Dynamics - Linyi Intelligent Manufacturing's strategic conference highlighted its commitment to becoming a leading player in the robotics sector, with a focus on core components and comprehensive hardware services [5][16]. - The upcoming release of Grok 4 by xAI is anticipated to enhance competitive positioning in the AI-driven robotics market [5][18]. - Stand Robotics is set to enhance its market presence through its IPO, focusing on R&D and expanding its service network [5][20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified for the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated long-term development confidence by repurchasing 1% of its shares, amounting to 1.6632 million shares at a total cost of approximately 21.5 million yuan [7]. - The launch of the "China Tour Lisheng Player Ranking" aims to promote high-level golf development in China, with a strategic focus on expanding event scale, increasing prize money, and enhancing international cooperation [2]. - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth, with projected revenues of 561.86 million yuan in 2025, 744.63 million yuan in 2026, and 973.92 million yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 27.49%, 32.53%, and 30.79% respectively [3][9]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 61.29 million yuan in 2025, 88.76 million yuan in 2026, and 112.99 million yuan in 2027, with significant growth rates of 257.70%, 44.83%, and 27.30% respectively [3][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -0.24 yuan in 2024 to 0.37 yuan in 2025, 0.54 yuan in 2026, and 0.69 yuan in 2027 [3][9]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from -2.45% in 2024 to 12.28% in 2025, reaching 19.37% by 2027 [3][9]. Market Position and Developments - The company is recognized as a leading operator in the automotive sports sector in China, with ongoing projects such as the Hainan International Circuit, which is expected to enhance profitability due to favorable climate conditions allowing for year-round operations [7]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 2.144 billion yuan and a total asset value of 1.057 billion yuan, indicating a solid financial foundation [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable investment outlook for the autonomous driving industry, particularly focusing on the acceleration of true L3 technology and the emergence of L4 scenarios, suggesting a significant investment opportunity in this sector by 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The current state of development shows that only L2+ technology has been widely adopted, while true L3 technology is expected to be implemented within the year. L4 technology, particularly in limited scenarios like Robotaxi and Robovan, is anticipated to achieve commercial viability, with leading companies likely to turn profitable by the end of 2025 [3]. - Key technological advancements include the mass production of VLM technology for L3 and the high barriers to entry for L4 technologies, which require close monitoring. The demand for L2+, L3, and L4 technologies is expected to boost sales of core components [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Classification and Definition of Autonomous Driving - Autonomous driving is classified into six levels (L0 to L5), with L0 being manual driving and L5 being fully autonomous driving without human intervention [6][10]. 2. Historical Development of Autonomous Driving - The report outlines key milestones in the evolution of autonomous driving technology, from early explorations in the 2000s to significant advancements expected by 2025, including the introduction of L3 and L4 technologies [14][88]. 3. Technical Routes of Autonomous Driving - The report discusses three technical levels: perception, decision-making, and execution, highlighting the competition between multi-sensor and pure vision routes for L4 and L3 technologies [20][24]. 4. Business Models of Autonomous Driving - The monetization strategies for L3 and L4 technologies are categorized into product sales (L3), service sales (L4), and technology licensing (L3 & L4), indicating a dual development path for L3 and L4 technologies [91][94]. 5. Key Players and Market Dynamics - Leading companies in L3 technology include Tesla, Xiaopeng, and Li Auto, while L4 technology is spearheaded by Waymo and other platform operators. The report emphasizes the importance of self-developed technology and partnerships in driving market success [96][100].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the low-altitude economy industry [1]. Core Insights - The low-altitude economy sector is experiencing accelerated development, with significant policy support and emerging applications in logistics and tourism. Major manufacturers are seeing an increase in orders, indicating a trend towards large-scale industrial growth [6][18][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From June 9 to June 22, the low-altitude economy sector underperformed the market, with the Wind Low Altitude Economy Index declining by 3.01%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.26 percentage points [12]. Policy Dynamics - On June 12, the State Council introduced policies to promote the low-altitude economy in Shenzhen, focusing on AI and low-altitude services as strategic emerging industries. The city has opened nearly 300 drone routes and completed over 1.7 million cargo flights [18]. - Chengdu's government released 14 measures to enhance low-altitude flight capabilities and market development, effective for three years [19]. - Tenjin and Nanjing have launched low-altitude flight service platforms to support flight safety and application exploration [23][24]. Industry Developments - GAC's GOVY AirCab, a flying car, was officially launched on June 12, with a price not exceeding 1.68 million RMB, targeting low-altitude tourism applications [21]. - EHang signed strategic partnerships to promote eVTOL applications in cold regions and Latin America, enhancing its operational capabilities [27][28]. - A joint venture between WoFei and Wolong Electric Drive aims to develop high-performance motors for eVTOLs, addressing key technical challenges in electric aviation [30]. - YTO Express established a drone company to enhance logistics automation, marking a significant step in integrating drone technology into logistics [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery equipment industry as of June 15, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The robot industry index underperformed the market, with a decline of 2.6% from June 9 to June 15, 2025, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.3 percentage points [5][12]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs have initiated a pilot program for intelligent elderly care robots, set to run from 2025 to 2027, focusing on application verification and standard development [17][18]. - The world's first embodied intelligent robot 4S store will open in Beijing, aiming to create a comprehensive service system covering the entire lifecycle of robots [19]. - New advancements include the release of the second-generation humanoid robot Codroid 02 by Estun, featuring a height of 170 cm, weight of 70 kg, and 31 degrees of freedom [21]. - Skild AI, a robotics "brain" company, raised $100 million in a Series B funding round, with a valuation of approximately $4.5 billion [29]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The robot index decreased by 2.6%, underperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 by 2.3 percentage points each [5][12]. Industry Dynamics - The pilot program for intelligent elderly care robots includes three main components: collaborative tackling of challenges, application verification in real-life scenarios, and the establishment of standards and evaluation systems [17][18]. - The first embodied intelligent robot 4S store will be launched in Beijing, integrating sales, spare parts supply, after-sales service, and feedback mechanisms [19]. - Estun's new humanoid robot Codroid 02 was introduced, showcasing advanced control systems and high task execution success rates [21]. - The Redwood AI model was launched, designed for humanoid robots to perform various household tasks [26]. - Strategic partnerships are being formed, such as the collaboration between Kepler and Hanwei Technology to advance embodied intelligence commercialization [30]. Related Research - The report highlights various companies involved in the robotics sector, including those focusing on key components like actuators, sensors, and humanoid robots [6].

Domestic Developments - The new policy document aims to transition China's social security system from a "bottom-line" to a "development-oriented" model, benefiting sectors like consumption, elderly care, and healthcare[9] - The average per capita consumption expenditure in China for 2024 is projected to be CNY 28,227, with urban residents at CNY 34,557 and rural residents at CNY 19,280, indicating a need for adjustments in minimum living standards linked to consumption[9] - The "one elderly, one child" policy is expected to stimulate demand in the maternal and child market, which reached CNY 40,505 billion in 2023, growing by 7.86% year-on-year[12] Financial and Economic Policies - The Chinese government is promoting financial support for the Greater Bay Area, allowing companies listed in Hong Kong to return to A-shares, which could enhance capital flow and support sectors like AI and low-altitude economy[13][15] - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have introduced measures to enhance financial integration across the Taiwan Strait, aiming to strengthen the financial ecosystem and support cross-border trade[16][17] International Trade and Economic Indicators - The U.S. May CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, indicating that the comprehensive tariff policy has not yet impacted consumer prices significantly[24] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its 2026 crude oil production forecast down from 13.5 million barrels per day to 13.3 million barrels per day, reflecting challenges in the energy sector[22] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 3.55% week-on-week, while iron ore and copper prices rose by 0.27% and 0.88%, respectively, indicating upward pressure in commodity markets[26] - Real estate sales area in China surged by 43.96% week-on-week, and the average daily retail sales in the passenger car market grew by 19% year-on-year in the first week of June[26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the fertilizer industry, indicating a recovery in the sector's prosperity [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - Population growth is expected to support food demand, thereby driving an increase in fertilizer consumption. The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) forecasts that global fertilizer consumption will continue to grow through 2025 [4][7]. - China's fertilizer production has been steadily increasing, with an expected output of 60.06 million tons of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers in 2024, representing an 8.5% year-on-year growth [11]. - Urea prices are recovering, leading to improved profitability for urea producers. The price recovery is driven by spring planting demand and a decline in coal prices, which has widened the price gap for urea [30]. - The phosphate sector remains robust, supported by limited new capacity and a favorable supply-demand balance. Phosphate rock prices are expected to remain high due to the long construction cycles for new mining projects [41][47]. - Potash prices are on the rise, with contract prices for imports to China and India set at $346 and $349 per ton, respectively, indicating a positive trend for global potash prices [63][65]. Summary by Sections 1. Population Growth and Fertilizer Demand - Global population growth is projected to continue, reaching a peak of 10.3 billion by mid-2080, which will support increased food demand and fertilizer consumption [7][10]. - China's fertilizer supply is crucial for food production, with government measures in place to stabilize fertilizer prices and ensure supply [11] 2. Urea Market - Domestic urea production capacity is expected to reach 76.96 million tons in 2024, with a production increase of 8.25% year-on-year [15]. - Urea inventory levels are low, and the operating rate is close to 90%, indicating a tight supply situation [23][30]. - The export volume of urea has significantly decreased, with a 94% drop in 2024 compared to the previous year [28]. 3. Phosphate Market - The phosphate market is characterized by limited new capacity and a stable operating rate, with phosphate rock production increasing by 13.9% year-on-year in early 2025 [41][44]. - The price of phosphate rock remains a critical support for phosphate fertilizer prices, with domestic prices holding steady [41][47]. 4. Potash Market - China's potash import dependency is projected to reach 67% in 2024, with a slight increase in import volumes in early 2025 [50][56]. - The recovery in potash prices is supported by supply constraints from major producers in Belarus and Russia, with domestic prices rising significantly [65][66]. 5. Related Companies - **Hualu Hengsheng**: Optimizing product structure and enhancing cost advantages through clean gasification platforms, with a urea production capacity of 3.07 million tons [71]. - **Yuntianhua**: Rich in phosphate resources, the company has a production capacity of 14.5 million tons per year and is actively pursuing new mining projects [74]. - **Yaka International**: Positioned to benefit from the recovery in potash prices, with significant production and sales increases expected in 2025 [77].

Trade Data Summary - In May 2025, China's total goods trade (imports and exports) increased by 1.3% year-on-year, a decline of 3.3 percentage points from April[2] - Exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, while imports fell by 3.4%, marking a significant drop of 3.2 percentage points[2] - The trade surplus reached $103.22 billion, an increase of $21.85 billion compared to the same period last year[2] Export and Import Trends - ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling $420.47 billion, up 7.8% year-on-year, accounting for 16.8% of total trade[2] - Trade with the US decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, totaling $239.71 billion, while trade with the EU increased by 1.7%[2] - In May, exports to the US fell sharply by 34.5%, a decline of 13.5 percentage points from April, while exports to the EU rose by 12.0%[2] Sector-Specific Insights - Exports of integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships saw significant growth, with increases of 33.4%, 13.7%, and 43.7% respectively[3] - Conversely, exports of refined oil, rare earths, and mobile phones declined by over 10%[3] - Import growth for agricultural products like grains and soybeans showed a positive trend, with grain imports up 4% in May[4]