ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2024 年 12 月 13 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（12.9-12.13） 加强超常规逆周期调节，美国 CPI 符合预期 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2024 年 12 月 12 日 证券研究报告•市场投资策略 总量及各行业 2024 年中央经济工作会议解读 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on key companies in the blood products industry, including Shanghai Raist (002252.SZ), Weigao Biology (002880.SZ), Hualan Biological (002007.SZ), Palin Biological (000403.SZ), and Tiantan Biological (600161.SH) [4] Core Insights - The report indicates an increase in the proportion of imported human albumin, which reached 68% in the first three quarters of 2024, up by 1 percentage point year-on-year [8][32] - The total number of human albumin batches approved in the first three quarters of 2024 was 3,797, reflecting a 13% increase compared to the previous year [3][12] - The report highlights a recovery in the sales of immunoglobulin, with a 6% year-on-year increase in Q3 2024 [63] - The overall net profit growth for blood product companies was 12% in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by factors such as the divestment of non-blood product businesses by Boya Biological and improved profit margins for Tiantan Biological [3][4] Summary by Category Human Albumin - In the first three quarters of 2024, the number of approved human albumin batches was 3,797, with domestic approvals at 1,229 (up 9%) and imports at 2,568 (up 15%) [3][12] - Q3 2024 saw 1,306 batches approved, marking a 5% increase [31][36] Immunoglobulin - The total number of immunoglobulin batches approved in the first three quarters was 940, a decrease of 3% year-on-year [62] - Q3 2024 saw a 6% increase in the number of approved immunoglobulin batches, totaling 355 [63] Coagulation Factors - In the first three quarters of 2024, the number of approved coagulation factor VIII batches was 396, reflecting a 23% increase [21] - Q3 2024 saw 127 batches of coagulation factor VIII approved, a 1% increase [12][21] Rabies Immunoglobulin - The report notes a significant increase in rabies immunoglobulin approvals, with a total of 120 batches approved in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a 48% increase [80][84] - Q3 2024 saw 41 batches approved, an 11% increase year-on-year [81][96] Tetanus Immunoglobulin - The number of approved tetanus immunoglobulin batches in the first three quarters was 104, a 9% increase [97] - Q3 2024 saw 41 batches approved, marking a 58% increase [98]

Group 1: ESG Overview - ESG stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance, focusing on corporate sustainability rather than financial performance[1] - The ESG framework serves as a standard for evaluating long-term corporate value and sustainability capabilities[1] - The global ESG rating systems have matured, with major players like MSCI, Thomson Reuters, and FTSE Russell providing comprehensive assessments[1] Group 2: Current ESG Market Trends - As of November 2024, the number of UN-PRI signatories has surpassed 5,000, indicating a growing commitment to responsible investment globally[26] - In China, the number of ESG-themed funds increased from approximately 148 in 2019 to over 540 by November 2024, with total assets growing from 326.1 billion CNY to 664.2 billion CNY[1] - The number of ESG-themed funds has seen explosive growth, particularly in 2021, reflecting heightened market interest[1] Group 3: ESG Ratings in China - The coverage of ESG ratings for A-share companies has increased significantly, with major agencies achieving full coverage since 2018[1] - The Wind ESG rating system categorizes companies from AAA to C, with approximately 60% of companies rated between B and BBB[48] - The number of companies rated BB and BBB has been consistently high, while AAA and CCC ratings remain rare[53] Group 4: ESG Investment Strategies - ESG ratings can be integrated into multi-factor investment strategies, enhancing portfolio performance; for instance, stocks rated A or above yielded an annualized excess return of 9.16% compared to the broader market[1] - The average Information Coefficient (IC) for ESG-combined factors is 2.07%, indicating a positive correlation with investment performance[1]

Investment Rating - The overall industry rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the expected return over the next six months will be between -5% and 5% compared to the relevant market index [31]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a more optimistic outlook on the domestic economy, highlighting improvements in economic indicators and a focus on expanding domestic demand, particularly consumption [1][3]. - Key points from the Central Political Bureau meeting include the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, as well as the introduction of unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments [1][3]. - The report suggests that sectors such as consumer services, home appliances, and machinery are likely to benefit from these policy shifts, with a focus on enhancing investment efficiency and stimulating consumption [3][11][25]. Summary by Sections Macro Perspective - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 9, 2023, expressed a more optimistic view of the economic situation compared to previous meetings, noting improvements in economic strength and technology [1]. - The meeting highlighted the need for a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, with expectations for the budget deficit rate to potentially exceed 3.5-4% in 2025 [1]. Strategy Insights - The report identifies "unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments" as a key strategy to address the current economic pressures, indicating a shift towards innovative and enhanced stimulus tools [3]. - There is a clear prioritization of domestic demand, with a strong emphasis on boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Consumer Services**: The report anticipates a recovery in consumer services, particularly in sectors like dining and tourism, driven by policies aimed at stimulating consumption [3]. - **Home Appliances**: The home appliance sector is expected to benefit significantly from government subsidies and policies aimed at promoting consumption, particularly in large appliances [8][9]. - **Machinery**: The machinery sector is advised to focus on cyclical recovery opportunities, with specific recommendations for companies involved in industrial tools and equipment [11][12]. - **Chemical Industry**: The chemical sector is projected to see demand improvements, particularly in MDI and PVA, as the economy stabilizes [15]. - **Transportation**: The transportation sector, especially shipping and logistics, is expected to benefit from increased domestic demand and stable foreign trade policies [16][17]. Conclusion - The report suggests that the overall market sentiment is shifting positively, with various sectors poised for growth due to supportive government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [1][3][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of December 8, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The A-share innovative drug sector increased by 1.28% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.64 percentage points. Over the past six months, the A-share innovative drug sector has risen by 49.00%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 15.81 percentage points [2][26]. - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector decreased by 0.63%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2.24 percentage points. In the last six months, the Hong Kong innovative drug sector has increased by 60.00%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 24.72 percentage points [2][28]. - The XBI index fell by 0.48% this week, but has seen a cumulative increase of 6.97% over the past six months [3][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - A total of 35 stocks in the innovative drug sector rose, while 32 stocks fell during the week. The top gainers were CloudTop New Drug-B (+34.69%), Yifang Bio-U (+28.3%), and Beihai Kangcheng-B (+27.78%). The largest declines were seen in Kangfang Bio-B (-10.81%), Lepu Bio-B (-9.22%), and Chuangsheng Group-B (-6.94%) [1][24]. - The total market capitalization of the pharmaceutical industry is approximately 51,157.49 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of about 49,457.03 billion yuan. The industry’s TTM price-to-earnings ratio stands at 33.1, compared to 12.7 for the CSI 300 [1]. 2. Drug Approval Progress - In December, no new drugs were approved for market launch in China, and there were no new indications approved [4][50]. - In the U.S., one NDA was approved this week, while no BLAs were approved. In Europe and Japan, no new innovative drugs were approved this week [5][43][45]. 3. Global Transaction Activity - A total of 29 significant transactions occurred globally this week, with 11 transactions disclosing amounts. Notable transactions include GSK's agreement with Muna Therapeutics for 187.64 million USD and Ionis Pharmaceuticals' agreement with Theratechnologies for 22.75 million USD [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of December 8, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The A-share innovative drug sector increased by 1.28% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.64 percentage points. Over the past six months, the A-share innovative drug sector has risen by 49.00%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 15.81 percentage points [2][26]. - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector decreased by 0.63%, underperforming the Hang Seng index by 2.24 percentage points. In the last six months, the Hong Kong innovative drug sector has increased by 60.00%, outperforming the Hang Seng index by 24.72 percentage points [2][28]. - The XBI index fell by 0.48% this week, but has seen a cumulative increase of 6.97% over the past six months [3][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - A total of 35 stocks in the innovative drug sector rose, while 32 stocks fell during the week. The top gainers were CloudTop New Drug-B (+34.69%), Yifang Bio-U (+28.3%), and Beihai Kangcheng-B (+27.78%). The largest declines were seen in Kangfang Bio-B (-10.81%), Lepu Bio-B (-9.22%), and Chuangsheng Group-B (-6.94%) [1][24]. - The total market capitalization of the pharmaceutical industry is approximately 51,157.49 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 49,457.03 billion yuan. The industry’s TTM price-to-earnings ratio stands at 33.1, compared to 12.7 for the CSI 300 [1]. 2. Drug Approval Progress - No new drugs were approved for market launch in China during December, and there were no new indications approved this week [4][50]. - In the U.S., one NDA was approved this week, while no BLA approvals were reported. In Europe and Japan, no new drugs were approved this week [5][43][45]. 3. Global Transaction Activity - A total of 29 significant transactions occurred globally this week, with 11 transactions disclosing amounts. Notable transactions include GSK's agreement with Muna Therapeutics for 187.64 million USD and Ionis Pharmaceuticals' agreement with Theratechnologies for 22.75 million USD [6].

Summary of Key Points Group 1: Market Overview - The overall performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) was weak during the week, with the BSE 50 index increasing by 0.9% from December 2 to December 6, 2024, lagging behind the ChiNext index by approximately 1.1 percentage points [33][40]. - The total market capitalization of the BSE reached 688.07 billion yuan as of December 6, 2024, with a weekly trading volume of 170.74 billion yuan, indicating a slight increase from the previous week [33][25]. - Among the 260 listed companies on the BSE, 109 stocks rose, 6 remained flat, and 145 declined during the week [33][40]. Group 2: New Listings - One new stock, Kolon New Materials (920098.BJ), was listed on the BSE on December 5, 2024, with an initial public offering (IPO) price of 14 yuan per share and a total fundraising amount of approximately 210 million yuan [28][31]. - Kolon New Materials experienced a significant price increase of 201.4% on its first trading day, closing at 42.2 yuan per share [28][33]. Group 3: Upcoming Listings - Next week, Lin Tai New Materials (920106.BJ) is scheduled for roadshow, issuance announcement, subscription, and issuance results announcement [31][32]. - Lin Tai New Materials operates in the automotive sector, focusing on the research, production, and sales of automatic transmission friction plates, with a planned IPO price of 19.8 yuan per share and a post-issue price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 [31][32]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The average market capitalization of BSE companies is 2.65 billion yuan, significantly lower than the ChiNext's average of 9.8 billion yuan and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's average of 12.16 billion yuan [25][40]. - The sector performance showed that the defense and military industry had a median sector return of 5.7%, while the food and beverage sector had a median return of -11.5% [42][40]. Group 5: Fund Performance - The overall performance of BSE-related thematic funds was weak, with the Wan Jia BSE Wise Selection Fund showing a gain of approximately 2.1%, outperforming the overall fund performance [43][44]. - The BSE index fund products also exhibited weak performance, with the Chang Jin He Xin BSE 50 Enhanced Index A and C showing a slight decline of about -1.8% [43][44].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry, with specific buy recommendations for several companies [2][18][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights that government policies are supporting domestic substitution, which is beneficial for leading domestic medical device companies to increase their market share [2][17]. - The pharmaceutical industry index rose by 1.62% in the week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.17 percentage points, but has declined by 7.82% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 by 23.61 percentage points [16][40]. - The current valuation level (PE-TTM) for the pharmaceutical industry is 27.53 times, with a premium of 79.9% relative to the entire A-share market [16][42]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy and Key Stocks - The report recommends a combination of stocks including Sainuo Medical, Enhua Pharmaceutical, and Shanghai Laishi, among others, as part of the investment strategy [2][19][23]. - The stable combination includes companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and Ji Chuan Pharmaceutical, with a focus on steady growth and innovation [18][31]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's performance is detailed, showing a weekly increase of 1.62% and a year-to-date decline of 7.82%, with the industry ranking 22nd in weekly performance and 32nd year-to-date [16][40]. - The best-performing sub-sector for the week was medical research outsourcing, which increased by 6.2% [16]. Policy and Market Trends - A recent policy from the Ministry of Finance aims to enhance the market share of domestic products in government procurement, which is expected to benefit leading domestic medical device companies [2][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation and research in driving growth within the pharmaceutical industry, with several companies showing strong performance in their respective sectors [23][31].

Market Performance - The pharmaceutical industry index increased by 1.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.17 percentage points, ranking 22nd in industry performance this week[1] - Year-to-date, the pharmaceutical industry has declined by 7.82%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 23.61 percentage points, ranking 32nd[1] - The current valuation level (PE-TTM) for the pharmaceutical industry is 27.53 times, with a premium of 79.9% relative to the entire A-share market, down 2.1 percentage points[1] Subsector Performance - The best-performing subsector this week is medical research outsourcing, which rose by 6.2%[1] - The top three performing subsectors year-to-date are pharmaceutical distribution (+4.8%), chemical preparations (+3.5%), and raw materials (+2.9%)[1] Policy Impact - A new policy from the Ministry of Finance supports domestic product standards in government procurement, potentially benefiting leading domestic medical device companies[2] - The policy allows suppliers whose domestic product costs exceed 80% of total costs to receive a 20% price deduction for evaluation purposes[2] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include: Sino Medical (688108), Enhua Pharmaceutical (002262), Shanghai Laishi (002252), Yihe Jiaye (301367), Meihua Medical (301363), and Yifan Pharmaceutical (002019)[2] - Hong Kong stock recommendations include: Rongchang Bio (9995), Hutchison China MediTech (0013), Kelun-Botai Bio (6990), and others[2] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected policy changes in the pharmaceutical industry, slower-than-expected R&D progress, and performance not meeting expectations[3]