[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 12 月 08 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•汽车 汽车行业周报（12.2-12.6） 年末冲量+政策加持，11 月乘用车零售同比增长 18% | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery equipment industry as of December 5, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 50.3%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity, with production and new order indices at 52.4% and 50.8% respectively [1]. - Despite weak domestic demand, there is a limited improvement in general equipment orders, with overseas demand showing better performance than domestic [1]. - The report suggests a structural difference in the performance of various sub-sectors, with leading companies in weaker sectors beginning to see a bottoming out of their performance [1]. - A policy turning point is noted, although substantial improvements in demand from policy changes will take time; valuation recovery is underway [1]. - The report recommends a proactive investment strategy in sectors such as tools, machine tools, injection molding machines, forklifts, and reducers for the medium to long term [1]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In November, the general equipment index increased by 2.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.0 percentage points [12]. - Sub-sector performance varied, with significant increases in industrial robots, reducers, and industrial control sectors, while the injection molding machine sector saw a decline [12]. Demand Tracking - The general equipment sector shows structural differences in demand, with leading companies in weaker sectors experiencing improved orders; domestic demand is stabilizing while overseas demand is increasing [18]. Data Review - The manufacturing PMI for November is 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in manufacturing [29]. - Social financing in October increased by 1.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4 trillion yuan; the total social financing stock grew by 7.8% year-on-year [29]. - Exports in October amounted to 309.1 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [29]. - The production of metal cutting machine tools in October was 60,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [44].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than Market" rating for the robotics industry [1] Core Views - The robotics industry outperformed the broader market indices during the week of December 2-8, 2024, with the CSI Robotics Index rising by 6.6% and the National Robotics Index increasing by 4.0% [1] - Domestic humanoid robot MagicBot demonstrated multi-robot collaboration capabilities in factory settings, with plans for a new product release and small-scale mass production by Q1 2025 [1] - Hyundai and Kia introduced the X-ble Shoulder exoskeleton robot, which reduces shoulder load by 60% and deltoid muscle damage by 30%, with plans for expansion to 27 affiliated companies by 2025 and entry into the European and American markets by 2026 [2] - Toyota's CUE6 humanoid robot set a Guinness World Record for the longest basketball shot by a humanoid robot at 24.55 meters, utilizing AI algorithms for real-time adjustments [2] - Chongqing and Sichuan governments released policies supporting the development of embodied intelligent robotics, including subsidies for R&D, core hardware development, and application scenarios [3][45][46] Industry Performance - The CSI Robotics Index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.3 percentage points, the CSI 300 Index by 5.2 percentage points, and the ChiNext Index by 4.7 percentage points [1] - The National Robotics Index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.7 percentage points, the CSI 300 Index by 2.6 percentage points, and the ChiNext Index by 2.1 percentage points [1] Key Companies and Products - MagicBot, developed by MagicLab, features 42 degrees of freedom, can carry up to 20 kg with its arms and 40 kg overall, and has a maximum battery life of 5 hours [1] - X-ble Shoulder, developed by Hyundai and Kia, weighs only 1.9 kg and can withstand 700,000 folding and unfolding actions annually without requiring electrical power [2][37] - Toyota's CUE6 robot achieved a record of 2,020 consecutive basketball shots, leveraging AI to learn and optimize its throwing technique [2][41] Government Policies and Support - Chongqing's policy supports the large-scale application of embodied intelligent robots in various sectors, including healthcare, education, and construction [3][45] - Sichuan's policy offers subsidies for AI and robotics industry platforms, core algorithm development, and the creation of industry-specific large models [46][47] Financing Activities - Noematrix completed a Pre-A+ round of financing worth hundreds of millions of RMB, led by Sequoia China, to accelerate product development and commercialization [5][51] - Nuoshi Robotics secured tens of millions of RMB in angel funding for the development of planetary roller screws, with plans to expand production and talent acquisition [5][52] - Titanium Tiger Robotics raised over 100 million RMB in two rounds of Pre-A financing to enhance R&D and market expansion [5][53]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK) [1] Core Views - Simcere Pharmaceutical's new drug Xianbixin sublingual tablets have been approved for market, which is expected to synergize with the injectable form to improve stroke treatment accessibility [2] - Two other drugs, Celsera and Enlituo, have been included in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL), significantly enhancing their market accessibility [3] - The company's innovative drug revenue accounted for over 70% of total revenue in H1 2024, with a noticeable increase in gross margin [4] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Simcere Pharmaceutical's revenue from innovative drugs reached 2 2 billion yuan, accounting for 70 7% of total revenue [4] - The company's gross margin in H1 2024 was 79 1%, an increase of 3 4 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023 [4] - Revenue is projected to grow from 6 64 billion yuan in 2024 to 9 36 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from 714 76 million yuan to 1 78 billion yuan over the same period [6][10] Product Pipeline - Xianbixin sublingual tablets showed a 64 4% functional recovery rate in clinical trials, significantly higher than the placebo group's 54 7% [2] - Celsera, a drug that protects bone marrow during chemotherapy, was successfully included in the NRDL and achieved localization in Hainan Province, potentially improving product gross margin [3] - Enlituo, a domestically developed EGFR monoclonal antibody, was approved in China in June 2024 and also included in the NRDL [3] Market Expectations - Xianbixin sublingual tablets are expected to achieve penetration rates of 0 9% and 3 9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding revenues of 250 million yuan and 650 million yuan [9] - Celsera is projected to reach penetration rates of 4%, 12%, and 16% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with revenues of 220 million yuan, 420 million yuan, and 560 million yuan [9] - The company's overall revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 8% from 2024 to 2026 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA (NVDA.O) [1] Core Views - NVIDIA's Q3 FY2025 revenue reached $35.08 billion, a 94% YoY increase, with GAAP net income of $19.3 billion, up 109% YoY, and Non-GAAP net income of $20 billion, up 100% YoY [1] - Data center revenue grew 112% YoY to $30.8 billion, driven by strong demand for the Hopper computing platform, with cloud service providers contributing approximately 50% of data center revenue [2] - The Blackwell series, set to begin production in Q4, is expected to face supply shortages in FY2026, with a 2.2x performance improvement in LLM benchmarks [2] - Gaming and AI PC revenue grew 15% YoY to $3.3 billion, exceeding market expectations, with 20 new GeForce RTX and DLSS games launched [3] - Professional visualization revenue increased 17% YoY to $486 million, while automotive and robotics revenue grew 72% YoY and 30% QoQ to $450 million [3] - Q4 FY2025 revenue guidance is approximately $37.5 billion, representing a 69.7% YoY increase, with GAAP and Non-GAAP gross margins expected at 73% and 73.5%, respectively [3] Financial Projections - Revenue for FY2025-FY2027 is projected at $131.78 billion, $215.03 billion, and $266.35 billion, respectively, with Non-GAAP net income of $72.48 billion, $120.63 billion, and $151.07 billion [11] - The company's GAAP/Non-GAAP net income CAGR is expected to be 69.9% and 67.2% over the next three years, with P/E ratios of 48x, 29x, and 23x [11] - Data center revenue is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 144% in FY2025, 70% in FY2026, and 25% in FY2027 [9] - Gaming revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% in FY2025 and 10% in FY2026 and FY2027 [9] - Automotive revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 26.5% in FY2025, 40% in FY2026, and 23.5% in FY2027 [9] Competitive Positioning - NVIDIA maintains a leading market position in AI GPUs, supported by its CUDA software ecosystem and continuous innovation [11] - The company's high-end GPU market share is expected to remain above 80% [8] - NVIDIA's Blackwell series is anticipated to drive significant growth in data center and AI-related markets [2] Industry Comparison - NVIDIA's valuation is favorable compared to peers, with a 2025E P/E of 47.97x, lower than the industry average of 42.27x [14] - Key competitors include AMD, Broadcom, and Intel, with NVIDIA's market cap significantly higher at $347.64 billion [14]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - JD Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached 260.4 billion yuan (yoy +5.1%), with Non-GAAP operating profit at 13.1 billion yuan (yoy +17.9%) and Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders at 13.2 billion yuan (yoy +23.9%) [1] - JD Retail's operating margin remained stable at 5.2% yoy, with a sequential improvement of 1.3 percentage points [1] - Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months (TTM) as of September 2024 was 33.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 22 billion yuan from June 2024 and 5.8 billion yuan yoy, primarily due to delayed accounts payable and inventory buildup for the trade-in program [1] - The trade-in policy drove a rebound in 3C and home appliance revenue, with 3C and home appliance sales reaching 122.6 billion yuan (yoy +2.7%), reversing the -4.6% decline in Q2 2024 [1] - JD Logistics saw a significant improvement in profitability, with operating profit surging 624% yoy to 2.09 billion yuan and operating margin increasing to 4.7% from 0.7% in Q3 2023 [1] - JD's Double 11 shopping festival in 2024 exceeded expectations, with active users growing by double digits, daily active buyers increasing by over 20%, and purchase frequency also growing by double digits [1] Business Performance by Segment JD Retail - Revenue: 225 billion yuan (yoy +6.1%) [1] - Operating profit: 11.6 billion yuan (yoy +5.5%) [1] - Operating margin: 5.2% (flat yoy) [1] JD Logistics - Revenue: 44.4 billion yuan (yoy +6.6%) [1] - Operating profit: 2.09 billion yuan (yoy +624%) [1] - Operating margin: 4.7% (up from 0.7% in Q3 2023) [1] New Businesses (Including Dada, Jingxi, Overseas, and JD Property) - Revenue: 5 billion yuan (yoy -25.7%) [1] - Operating loss: 600 million yuan [1] Key Strategies - Low-price strategy: JD has implemented a matrix of low-price activities, including the "JD Super 18" event every month, weekly "Black Friday" promotions, and daily "Midnight Sale" events [1] - Trade-in program: The policy has successfully driven growth in the 3C and home appliance categories [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue growth for 2024-2026 is projected at 5.26%, 5.09%, and 5.00%, respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 45.7 billion yuan, 49.2 billion yuan, and 52.9 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [1] - Long-term profit margin target is set at high single digits [1] Revenue Breakdown by Category Electronics and Home Appliances - Revenue: 553.3 billion yuan (2024E), 568.3 billion yuan (2025E), 585.3 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 2.7% (2024E), 2.7% (2025E), 3.0% (2026E) [6] Daily Necessities - Revenue: 360 billion yuan (2024E), 387 billion yuan (2025E), 414.1 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 8.3% (2024E), 7.5% (2025E), 7.0% (2026E) [6] Platform and Advertising Services - Revenue: 88 billion yuan (2024E), 91.6 billion yuan (2025E), 95.2 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 3.9% (2024E), 4.0% (2025E), 4.0% (2026E) [6] Logistics and Other Services - Revenue: 140.3 billion yuan (2024E), 152.9 billion yuan (2025E), 165.2 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 9.0% (2024E), 9.0% (2025E), 8.0% (2026E) [6] Key Assumptions - Electronics and home appliances: Continued growth driven by trade-in policies and government subsidies, with 3C and home appliance revenue expected to increase in Q4 2024 [5] - Daily necessities: Lower shipping thresholds and optimized platform rules are expected to sustain a 7%+ GMV growth rate for 2025-2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company is initiating a restricted stock incentive plan, granting 12.34 million shares at a price of HKD 6.65 per share, reflecting confidence in its development [1][2]. - The performance targets for the incentive plan are ambitious, with revenue goals set at HKD 1.5 billion, HKD 1.75 billion, and HKD 2 billion for the years 2025-2028, indicating a projected growth rate of 50% to 100% [2]. - Strong sales growth of the drug Acalbrutinib, with Q3 sales reaching HKD 276 million, a 75.5% increase year-over-year, and total sales for the first three quarters at HKD 693 million, a 45% increase [3]. - The company is advancing its pipeline with two TYK2 inhibitors, with ongoing clinical trials showing promising results [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects revenues of HKD 1.01 billion, HKD 1.54 billion, and HKD 2.09 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 37.08%, 52.53%, and 35.54% [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to improve from a loss of HKD 631.26 million in 2024 to a profit of HKD 232.04 million in 2026, indicating a significant turnaround [5][10]. Product Pipeline - Acalbrutinib is the first and only BTK inhibitor approved for MZL in China, with ongoing clinical trials for various indications, including PPMS and ITP [3]. - The company is in the first tier of domestic development for TYK2 inhibitors, with two products making significant progress in clinical trials [3]. Market Position - The report highlights the company's strong market position in the hematology field and its potential to lead in the treatment of autoimmune diseases [3][9].

Group 1 - The overall performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) was strong during the week, with the BSE 50 index increasing by 21.5% from the opening on November 4, 2024, and closing at 1391.4 points on November 8, 2024 [1][2][28] - Among the 256 stocks listed on the BSE, 247 stocks rose, 1 stock remained flat, and 8 stocks declined, indicating a diverse performance among individual stocks [1][28] - The average market capitalization of BSE component stocks is 26.6 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the average market capitalization of 98.8 billion yuan for the ChiNext and 121.8 billion yuan for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2][19] Group 2 - No new stocks were listed on the BSE this week, but two companies, Juxing Technology and Wanyuantong, are updating their IPO dynamics [3][23] - Juxing Technology, which specializes in electric contact products, reported a revenue of 600 million yuan and a net profit of 76.8 million yuan for 2023, with an IPO price of 6.3 yuan per share and a post-issue P/E ratio of 12.7 times [23][26] - Wanyuantong, engaged in the research, production, and sales of printed circuit boards, reported a revenue of 980 million yuan and a net profit of 118.1 million yuan for 2023, with an IPO price of 11.2 yuan per share and a post-issue P/E ratio of 14.9 times [26][27] Group 3 - The BSE's trading volume for the week was 2491.3 billion yuan, with an average weekly trading amount of 9.7 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 82.7%, indicating improved liquidity compared to the previous week [2][19] - The P/E ratio (TTM, median) for the BSE is 42.2 times, which has increased by 7.4 times compared to the previous week, reflecting a rise in valuation [2][19] Group 4 - The BSE's thematic funds and index funds performed strongly this week, with the E Fund BSE Selected Mixed Fund C showing a growth of approximately 14.5%, outperforming the overall fund performance by about 8.9 percentage points [39][40] - The Southern BSE 50 Index Fund A and C also performed well, with a growth of about 13.8% [39][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 18.72 CNY over the next six months [1][13]. Core Insights - The company's revenue showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement, with expectations for growth in the breeding sector. The report highlights that the demand for animal health products is influenced by the cyclical nature of the breeding industry, particularly the changes in livestock inventory [2][4]. - The company has increased its R&D investment, which is crucial for enhancing its core competitiveness. The R&D expenditure reached 20.79 million CNY in Q3 2024, accounting for 7.85% of revenue, indicating a focus on innovation [3][4]. - The report anticipates a recovery in pig supply and prices in Q4 2024, which is expected to boost the demand for animal health products, particularly vaccines [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 666 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 19.57%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 261 million CNY, down 27.09% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 265 million CNY, a year-on-year decline of 10.35% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.2% [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a decrease in the number of breeding pigs, which has led to reduced demand for vaccines and other animal health products. However, it also points out that the demand for vaccines is expected to rise as the breeding industry recovers [2][4]. R&D and Innovation - The company has made significant strides in R&D, obtaining 49 new veterinary drug registration certificates. The focus on developing new vaccine platforms is expected to enhance its product offerings and market position [3][4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.83 CNY, 1.04 CNY, and 1.28 CNY, respectively. The report suggests a dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18, 15, and 12 for these years [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 18.76 yuan over the next six months, based on a current price of 15.27 yuan [1][42]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in its main business due to the implementation of operational reforms and competitive bidding mechanisms, leading to an increase in land leasing income [2][25]. - The company is positioned as a leading agricultural enterprise in China, benefiting from rich land resources and a favorable geographical location in the world's major black soil belts, which enhances the quality and competitiveness of its agricultural products [2][32]. - The company plans to produce approximately 12 billion jin of high-quality crops, including rice, corn, and soybeans, in 2024, continuing to explore potential in green and organic products [2][32]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, formerly known as Heilongjiang Provincial Agricultural Reclamation Bureau, was restructured in December 2020 and operates in a region with a total land area of 53,600 square kilometers, making it a significant grain production base in China [17][19]. Company Analysis - The company has a total land area of 12.96 million acres, with 11.58 million acres of arable land, and operates 16 agricultural subsidiaries focused on producing major crops [2][32]. - Land rental prices have been increasing in line with rising grain prices, which has positively impacted the company's land leasing business [2][30]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.62 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.72 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25, 23, and 21 [3][42]. - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in land leasing and agricultural material sales, with projected revenue growth rates of 8% for land leasing and 5% for agricultural materials from 2024 to 2026 [37][41].