[日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark [Table_Summary] 主要观点 2025年04月16日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 陈彦利 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686170 | | E-mail: | chenyanli@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870517070002 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《价格双负局面延续》 | ——2025 年 04 月 11 日 | | --- | | 《投资加快，消费向好》 | | ——2025 年 03 月 19 日 | | 《春节错月影响下，价格实际仍偏稳》 | 3 月出口仍获支撑，顺差维持千亿 ——2025 年 3 月外贸数据点评 3 月出口仍获支撑，顺差维持千亿 3 月外贸表现仍较强，出口增长明显加快，顺差维持千亿规模。出口 方面，与 1-2 月相比，对欧盟、美国、日本出口均有所回升，尤其是 美国，虽然美国在 2、3 月已对我国加征两轮关税，但鉴于其 4 月全球 开征"对等关税"，因此或仍存在一定的抢出口效应；对东盟出口也有 ...

证券投资基金研究报告/基金周报 报告日期：2025年04月15日 本期（2025.4.7-2025.4.11）上证指数下跌 3.11%，深证成指下跌 5.13%。申万一级行业跌多涨少，其中农林牧渔和商贸零售行业表现较 好。海外权益市场重要指数跌多涨少，国际黄金价格上涨。本期各类型 基金跌多涨少。主动投资股票基金较上期下跌 3.78%，主动投资混合基 金下跌 3.05%，主动投资债券基金上涨 0.07%；QDII 基金较上期下跌 5.05%。 图 1、基金指数近一年收益率走势 数据来源：wind，上海证券基金评价研究中心； 起止时间：2024 年 4 月 12 日——2025 年 4 月 11 日 图 2、各类型基金本期收益率（%） 数据来源：wind，上海证券基金评价研究中心；数据截至 2025 年 4 月 11 日 注：主动投资股票基金、混合基金及债券基金平均收益率采用中国开放式主动管理基 金系列指数收益率；其他类型基金平均收益率采用样本基金收益率算术平均值 分析师：池云飞 执业证书编号：S0870521090001 电话：021-53686397 E-mail: chiyunfei@shzq.com 研究 ...

Group 1: CPI and PPI Data Analysis - In March 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with urban areas down 0.1% and rural areas down 0.3%[10] - Food prices fell by 1.4%, while non-food prices increased by 0.2%[10] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[21] Group 2: Core CPI and Economic Implications - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating stable demand[12] - The decline in CPI was primarily influenced by a 1.4% drop in food prices, which accounted for approximately 60% of the total CPI decrease[11] - The low inflation environment provides room for policy measures to stimulate domestic demand and support economic recovery[31] Group 3: Price Trends and Policy Outlook - The dual negative price situation continues, with CPI's decline narrowing due to the fading impact of the Spring Festival and a reduction in food price declines[30] - Industrial product prices remain in a contraction phase, suggesting a stable price trend overall[31] - The report suggests that monetary and fiscal policies should work together to enhance macroeconomic policies and stabilize prices[31]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. tariff policy has led to downward adjustments in overseas asset valuations, while domestic asset value has improved due to supportive policies in innovation, consumption, and finance, resulting in a positive outlook for the domestic economy since early 2025 [1][15][20] - The report emphasizes the resilience of the domestic economy against external risks, bolstered by the development of the internal circulation economy and the success of the Belt and Road Initiative, which enhances the long-term attractiveness of domestic assets despite short-term challenges from geopolitical tensions [1][15][20] - The report suggests that the April 2025 fund allocation should focus on three areas: the impact of U.S. policy changes on global economic development, new opportunities arising from structural improvements in the domestic economy, and the valuation effects on precious metals and oil due to changing expectations [1][15][20] Market Review - As of March 31, 2025, global equity asset performance was mixed, with A-shares and H-shares outperforming overseas markets, yielding returns of -0.1% and 0.3% respectively, while value stocks in A-shares achieved a growth of 0.8% [7][12] - Domestic bond assets remained stable despite increased volatility in interest rate bonds, with the China Bond Index only declining by 0.2%, and credit bonds showing stronger resilience [7][12] Market Outlook - The report identifies the U.S. policy environment as a significant uncertainty for global economic development, with protectionist measures potentially harming the recovery of other economies [16][20] - It notes that the domestic economy is undergoing a structural transformation, supported by various policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving market liquidity, which has led to a stable performance in service and manufacturing PMIs [20][21] Major Asset Allocation - The report recommends a diversified asset allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of balancing investments across different asset classes to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [44] - For equity funds, it suggests maintaining confidence in long-term investments, focusing on high certainty in performance, profitability, and dividends, particularly in themes like dividends and large-cap funds [47][48] - For fixed income funds, it highlights the continued attractiveness of credit bonds and recommends a focus on medium to short duration bonds for stability [49][50] - The report advises on QDII funds, suggesting a cautious approach to oil investments due to geopolitical risks and a focus on value stocks outside the U.S. market, particularly in Europe and Hong Kong [51][54]

- The A-share industry rotation model is constructed using six factors: capital, valuation, sentiment, momentum, overbought/oversold, and profitability[12] - The capital factor is based on the net inflow rate of industry capital[12] - The valuation factor uses the industry's valuation percentile over the past year[12] - The sentiment factor is derived from the proportion of rising constituent stocks[12] - The momentum factor uses the MACD indicator[12] - The overbought/oversold factor uses the RSI indicator[12] - The profitability factor is based on the industry's consensus forecast EPS percentile over the past year[12] Model Evaluation - The A-share industry rotation model provides a comprehensive scoring system to assess industry performance[12] Model Backtest Results - The highest scoring industries in the current period are agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, transportation, and public utilities[13][14] - The lowest scoring industries are non-ferrous metals, electronics, and petroleum and petrochemicals[13][14] Consensus Stock Selection Model - The consensus stock selection model selects stocks based on momentum, valuation, and price increase frequency factors, combined with high-frequency capital flow data[15] - The model identifies stocks with the highest similarity between high-frequency capital flow trends and stock price trends within the top three rising secondary industries[15] Model Backtest Results - The selected stocks for the current period include Pulike, Huisheng Biological, and Zhongmu Shares in the animal health industry, and Xiaocheng Technology in the precious metals industry[16]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: A-Share Industry Rotation Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses six factors—capital, valuation, sentiment, momentum, overbought/oversold, and profitability—to build a scoring system for industry evaluation [12] **Model Construction Process**: - **Capital**: Uses industry net inflow rate of major funds as the primary data source - **Valuation**: Based on the valuation percentile of the industry over the past year - **Sentiment**: Proportion of stocks with price increases within the industry - **Momentum**: Utilizes the MACD indicator as the main data source - **Overbought/Oversold**: Relies on the RSI indicator - **Profitability**: Uses the consensus forecast EPS percentile of the industry over the past year [12] **Model Evaluation**: Provides a comprehensive scoring system for industry rotation analysis [12] - **Model Name**: Consensus Stock Selection Model **Model Construction Idea**: Combines momentum, valuation, and price increase frequency factors with high-frequency fund flow data to select stocks with the highest similarity between fund flow and price trends [15] **Model Construction Process**: - Filters high-growth industries at the Shenwan secondary industry level over the past 30 days - Calculates momentum, valuation, and price increase frequency factors using monthly stock data - Computes high-frequency fund inflow/outflow changes for each stock using minute-level data - Selects stocks with the highest similarity between fund flow and price trends within the top three secondary industries [15] **Model Evaluation**: Effectively identifies stocks with strong fund flow and price trend alignment [15] --- Model Backtesting Results - **A-Share Industry Rotation Model**: - **Top Scoring Industries**: - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: Total score = 14 - Transportation: Total score = 8 - Utilities: Total score = 7 [13][14] - **Consensus Stock Selection Model**: - **Selected Industries**: - Animal Health II, Precious Metals, Special Steel II - **Selected Stocks**: - Animal Health II: Pulike Biological Engineering, Huisheng Biological, Zhongmu Co., Keqian Biological, Haili Biological - Precious Metals: Xiaocheng Technology, Sichuan Gold, Hunan Gold, Hunan Silver, Chifeng Gold - Special Steel II: Jiuli Special Materials, Shagang Group, Xianglou New Materials, Changbao Co., Guangda Special Materials [16] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Capital **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures industry net inflow rate of major funds [12] **Factor Construction Process**: Aggregates daily net inflow data for transactions exceeding 100,000 shares or 200,000 yuan, categorized by Shenwan primary industries [8][9] **Factor Evaluation**: Reflects fund flow trends across industries [12] - **Factor Name**: Valuation **Factor Construction Idea**: Uses industry valuation percentile over the past year [12] **Factor Construction Process**: Calculates the relative valuation position of the industry within a one-year window [12] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides insights into industry valuation levels [12] - **Factor Name**: Sentiment **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the proportion of stocks with price increases within the industry [12] **Factor Construction Process**: Aggregates the percentage of stocks with positive price movements in the industry [12] **Factor Evaluation**: Indicates market sentiment within the industry [12] - **Factor Name**: Momentum **Factor Construction Idea**: Utilizes MACD indicator for trend analysis [12] **Factor Construction Process**: Computes MACD values for industry-level data [12] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures industry momentum trends [12] - **Factor Name**: Overbought/Oversold **Factor Construction Idea**: Relies on RSI indicator to measure market conditions [12] **Factor Construction Process**: Calculates RSI values for industry-level data [12] **Factor Evaluation**: Identifies overbought or oversold conditions in the industry [12] - **Factor Name**: Profitability **Factor Construction Idea**: Uses consensus forecast EPS percentile over the past year [12] **Factor Construction Process**: Aggregates EPS forecast data and calculates its relative position within a one-year window [12] **Factor Evaluation**: Reflects industry profitability trends [12] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Capital Factor**: - **Top Industries (5-day net inflow)**: Beauty and Personal Care, Comprehensive, Light Manufacturing, Building Materials, Environmental Protection [2][8] - **Top Industries (30-day net inflow)**: Comprehensive, Beauty and Personal Care, Coal, Building Materials, Textile and Apparel [2][9] - **Valuation Factor**: - **Top Scoring Industries**: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (+++), Transportation (++), Utilities (++) [14] - **Sentiment Factor**: - **Top Scoring Industries**: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (+++), Transportation (+++), Utilities (+++) [14] - **Momentum Factor**: - **Top Scoring Industries**: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (+++), Comprehensive (+++), Utilities (+++) [14] - **Overbought/Oversold Factor**: - **Top Scoring Industries**: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (++), Utilities (--) [14] - **Profitability Factor**: - **Top Scoring Industries**: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (++), Banking (+++) [14]

Trade Policy Actions - On April 2, 2025, Trump signed an executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs to address the significant annual trade deficit with various countries[3] - The additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. are all above 10%, with China facing a 34% tariff, the EU 20%, and Japan 24%[3] - The average most-favored-nation tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to exceed 7.5% for China and 5% for the EU after these tariffs are implemented[3] Economic Impact - The Trump administration claims that the additional tariffs will have minimal impact on inflation and will significantly boost domestic manufacturing[4] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices fell approximately 10%, and the 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 19 basis points[5] - The U.S. dollar index dropped by 2.19% from April 2 to April 3, indicating a potential increase in risk aversion among investors[5] Market Reactions - Gold prices initially rose by 2.02% before the executive order but fell by 2.53% in the subsequent days[5] - The domestic bond market showed bullish trends, with the 10-year government bond futures rising by 0.76% from April 2 to April 3[6] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced declines, with the Wande All A and Hang Seng indices dropping by 0.76% and 1.52%, respectively[6] Future Outlook - The Chinese government announced a 34% tariff on all imports from the U.S., effective April 10, 2025, in response to U.S. tariffs[6] - The likelihood of interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions by the Chinese central bank is increasing as a countermeasure to the tariffs[6] - The performance of capital markets will ultimately depend on economic fundamentals and monetary policy responses[6]

Group 1: Technology's Role in Modernization - The article emphasizes the fundamental role of technology in China's modernization, aiming to establish the country as a technological powerhouse by 2035[3] - Five essential elements for achieving this goal include foundational research, core technology breakthroughs, international influence, high-level talent cultivation, and a robust governance system[3] - The article suggests that technology can address the current economic issue of insufficient effective demand, particularly in consumer spending[3] Group 2: Impact on Industries and Consumption - High-tech products are expected to stimulate consumer purchasing willingness, particularly through the replacement of traditional appliances with smart home devices[3] - Emerging industries such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and deep-sea technology are anticipated to grow, creating demand from the supply side[4] - Technological advancements are projected to enhance domestic brands' sales and market share, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, leading to significant increases in both domestic market share and export volumes[5] Group 3: Cost Reduction and Competitive Edge - Technological progress is seen as a means to overcome foreign technology blockades and reduce costs, exemplified by domestic models like Deepseek addressing access issues to U.S. AI technologies[5] - The report highlights that domestically developed large models are generally cheaper than ChatGPT, thus lowering operational costs for companies[5] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include economic data or corporate earnings falling below expectations, which could affect investor sentiment in the A-share market[6] - The impact of U.S. tariffs and escalating technology restrictions may pose additional challenges to the market[6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - The AI large model continues to be updated, with significant advancements in computational efficiency and output quality, as demonstrated by the latest models from DeepSeek, Google, OpenAI, and ByteDance [2][3]. - There is a surge in demand for computational power, particularly for H20 chips, driven by the adoption of high-performance models by various companies [3][6]. - Government policies are increasingly supportive of AI infrastructure development, with initiatives aimed at enhancing the AI industry and promoting significant investments [6]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The computer industry index has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index, with a decline of 4.89% [1]. Weekly Insights - DeepSeek's new model, DeepSeek V3-0324, features 671 billion parameters and improved performance in mathematical reasoning and creative output [2]. - Google's Gemini 2.5 Pro model supports a context window of 1 million tokens and excels in complex task handling [2]. - OpenAI's GPT-4o has enhanced image generation capabilities and improved understanding of complex instructions [2]. - ByteDance's new features in Doubao enhance reasoning and search capabilities [2]. - Alibaba's QVQ-Max model can analyze and reason based on images and videos [2]. Computational Demand - The demand for H20 chips is surging, with supply shortages expected due to high adoption rates of advanced models [3][6]. - The Chinese government is actively promoting AI initiatives, with plans to support the AI industry through funding and policy measures [6]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include those in AI applications, integrated machines, and state-owned cloud services, such as Runjian Co., Kehua Data, and iFLYTEK [7].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the transition of China's capital market from an approval-based system to a registration-based system, which enhances market efficiency and inclusivity [16][18]. - The merger and acquisition (M&A) market in China has experienced fluctuations since 2015, with a notable decline in transaction numbers from 2016 to 2023, but a recovery in transaction value is expected in the latter half of 2024 [21][24]. - The report highlights the significant increase in average M&A transaction values in strategic sectors such as defense, manufacturing, and media, with defense industry M&A values rising by 495.02% compared to the last decade [24][25]. Group 2 - The report outlines the core logic of value-driven mergers and acquisitions, focusing on long-term value creation through strategic resource integration rather than short-term financial gains [61]. - It discusses the importance of risk control frameworks in M&A, emphasizing thorough due diligence to mitigate potential risks associated with acquisitions [68]. - The report provides successful case studies, such as the merger of China Eastern Airlines and Shanghai Airlines, which illustrates effective integration strategies leading to sustained profitability [70]. Group 3 - The report predicts that over 80% of significant restructurings will focus on horizontal or vertical integration within industries like high-end manufacturing and renewable energy, driven by policy support for leading enterprises [80]. - It suggests that state-owned enterprise reforms will accelerate, with a focus on strategic restructuring to enhance industry concentration and asset securitization [81]. - The report advocates for optimizing institutional supply and enhancing investor protection to encourage long-term capital participation in the M&A market [90].