证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Author] 分析师: 胡月晓 Tel: 021-53686171 E-mail: huyuexiao@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870510120021 分析师: 陈彦利 Tel: 021-53686170 E-mail: chenyanli@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870517070002 虽然 1 月份 CPI 和 PPI 延续了"双负"状态，且程度加深，但市场主流 预期并没有形成通缩深化的预期：2024 年 3 月份 CPI 同比增速（%）预 测分布区间为（-0.6,0.8），预期的中值和均值分别为 0.3 和 0.2，表 明消费价格回升是市场主流预期；主流预期认为 PPI 同比增速仍保持 平稳。我们一直认为，受基数效应影响，未来 CPI 同比数据或持续处 于低位运行状态，PPI 则延续降幅缓慢收窄态势。2 月份真实物价数据 公布后，市场整体对物价运行基准水平应有下移，但运行趋势（平稳 中缓回升）预期应保持不变。我们认为，中国消费价格有着较为明显 的季节性波动规律，从环比价格变动看，中国物价运行并未陷入通缩 态势，受基数效应影响，1 月 ...

宏 观 数 据 ——2024 年 1-2 月外贸数据点评 1-2 月进出口双双回升，顺差扩张较快。出口方面，发达国家制造业景 气度多数回落，外需偏软，但出口仍然维持了强韧。从出口国别来 看，主要发达国家中除对日本出口下滑外，其余均保持了不同程度的 增长或改善。从出口商品来看，劳动密集型产品均保持了较快增长； 机电商品中除了手机和汽车外均有所回升，汽车高位回落，但仍维持 了 10%以上的增速。进口方面，从进口数量来看，主要进口商品增速 除原油、铜以外以下降为主。虽然大宗商品、原材料进口有所下降， 但机电产品增长加快，带动进口整体的回升。1-2 月由于出口回升幅度 更大，贸易顺差同比增长高达 20.5%，高顺差得以延续。 优势地位延续，高顺差得以保障 俄乌冲突、中东冲突等地缘政治事件恶化，国际金融形势改变；中国 通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。 图 1 事件：1-2 月外贸数据公布 进口方面，从进口数量来看，主要进口商品增速除原油、铜 以外以下降为主；从进口金额来看，也表现以下降为主。虽然大 宗商品、原材料进口有所下降，但机电产品增长加快，带动进口 整体的回升。1-2 月由于出口回升幅度更大，贸易顺差同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [46]. Core Views - The company has a strong focus on the automotive stamping business, with a successful transition to body-in-white assembly driving significant revenue growth. The company achieved a revenue of 1.701 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 103.07% [44][70]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and diversifying its product offerings, particularly in body-in-white and integrated die-casting, which are expected to open new growth avenues [45][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Deepening Stamping Business - The company has a stable growth in Tier 1 customer sales, with new major clients being automotive manufacturers. The total orders on hand as of December 31, 2022, amount to 7.1 billion yuan for 2023-2025 [2][3]. - The company has successfully transitioned from stamping parts to body-in-white assembly, with significant revenue contributions from this segment [57][70]. 2. Competitive Landscape of Stamping Parts - The stamping parts market is expected to reach a scale of 240.7 billion yuan by 2025, with a stable growth outlook. The average number of stamped parts per vehicle is approximately 1,500 [76][78]. - The company is expanding its client base from Tier 1 suppliers to automotive manufacturers, enhancing its market position [2][3]. 3. Layout of Hot Stamping and Integrated Die-Casting - The company is investing in hot stamping technology, which enhances the crash performance of vehicle bodies and contributes to weight reduction [45][12]. - The Chengdu factory is expected to commence operations in April 2024, focusing on high-pressure aluminum die-casting, which will further enhance production capabilities [17][21]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.07 billion yuan, 4.43 billion yuan, and 6.09 billion yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24.42X, 16.97X, and 12.32X [46][48].

半导体周期上行趋势逐渐明朗，CIS 或 证 券 将迎来新一波规格更新 研 究 ——电子行业周报（2024.03.04-2024.03.08） 报 [Table 增_R 持at （ing 维] [◼Ta bl核e_心Su观mm点a ry] 告 持） 市场行情回顾 [行Ta业bl:e _Indu电st子ry] 过去一周（03.04-03.08），SW电子指数上涨0.55%，板块整体跑赢沪 深 300 指数 0.35 pct，从六大子板块来看，光学光电子、电子化学品 日期: s 20h2z4q年da0t3e月m1a0r日k II、消费电子、元件、其他电子Ⅱ、半导体涨跌幅分别为-0.88%、- 1.22%、3.34%、5.43%、1.89%、-1.06%。 [T分ab析le师_A: utho马r]永 正 核心观点 Tel: 021-53686147 图像传感器：CIS市场规模已达140亿美元。3月4日，据芯智讯援引 E-mail: mayongzheng@shzq.com 半导体研究机构TechInsights公布的最新研究报告显示，虽然2023年 全球智能手机市场出现了同比下滑，但是在全球智能手机图像传感器 SAC ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 海外市场跟踪：需求偏软，通胀缓解 [日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark [Table_Summary] 投资摘要 [Table_Author] 分析师: 胡月晓 Tel: 021-53686171 E-mail: huyuexiao@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870510120021 分析师: 陈彦利 Tel: 021-53686170 E-mail: chenyanli@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870517070002 发达国家制造业景气度回落 美国日本通胀持续回落 俄乌冲突、中东冲突等地缘政治事件恶化，国际金融形势改变；中国 通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。 录 | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | ...

开年纺服出口回稳向好，关注纺织制造 证 券 景气回升 研 究 ——轻工纺服行业周报（20240304-0308） 报 告 [Table 增_R 持at （ing 维] [◼Ta bl主e_要Su观mm点a ry] 持） 行情回顾：本周（2024.03.04-2024.03.08，下同），A股SW纺织服装 [行Ta业bl:e _Indu纺st织ry]服 饰 行业指数上涨 2.60%，轻工制造行业下跌 0.27%，而沪深 300 上涨 日期: s 20h2z4q年da0t3e月m1a0r日k 0.20%，上证指数上涨 0.63%。纺织服装和轻工制造在申万 31个一级 行业中涨幅排名分别为第5位和第16位。 [T分ab析le师_A: utho杜r]洋 Tel: 021-53686169 1）纺织服装：开年纺服出口回稳向好，亚玛芬体育 2023 年收入稳健 E-mail: duyang@shzq.com 增长。 SAC编号: S0870523090002 开年纺服出口回稳向好，行业景气度有望持续回升。据中国纺织品进 出口商会数据显示，按美元计，24 年 1-2 月，中国纺织服装累计出口 [最Ta近bl一e_年Qu行o ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% within the next six months [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.474 billion yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.81%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.055 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.69%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.026 billion yuan, showing a growth of 22.73% [6][10]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.228 billion yuan, 1.458 billion yuan, and 1.731 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 16.40%, 18.68%, and 18.76% [10]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in its CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) business, which generated revenue of 2.005 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.10% [12]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 11.474 billion yuan in 2023 to 16.888 billion yuan in 2026, with annual growth rates of 8.8%, 12.0%, 14.3%, and 15.0% respectively [9]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 25.7% in 2023 to 28.4% in 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 9.2% to 10.3% over the same period [19]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.90 yuan in 2023 to 1.47 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 14.82 to 9.03 [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the beauty care industry [7] Core Insights - The 38th Women's Day promotion has concluded, highlighting the performance of domestic brands [7][15] - The demand for sunscreen products continues to grow, with stable prices and new capacity being released [8][16] - The launch of Winona 2.0 marks a new era in sensitive skin care, focusing on comprehensive solutions [9][18] Summary by Sections 1. Main Insights - The 38th Women's Day promotion included two phases: Pre-sale from February 28 to March 3, and Renewal Week from March 4 to March 8. Promotions included direct discounts and cross-store reductions [7][15] - Li Jiaqi's beauty festival achieved a GMV exceeding 9 billion yuan, with domestic brands accounting for approximately 3.2 billion yuan, or 35.3% of the total [7][15] 2. Market Review - The beauty care industry index decreased by 2.24%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.44 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 sectors [20] - The individual stock performance showed significant fluctuations, with Kosi Co., Ltd. and others leading in gains, while brands like Proya and Huaxi Bio faced declines [24] 3. Industry News and Announcements - Kosi Co., Ltd. reported stable prices for sunscreen products and ongoing demand growth, with new production capacity expected to contribute positively in 2024 [8][16] - Winona's 2.0 strategy aims to enhance sensitive skin care solutions, introducing upgraded products with improved efficacy [9][18] - The company plans to expand internationally, starting with Southeast Asia in 2024 [9][19]

全球及国内投融资逐步恢复，两会定调医疗健 证 券 康行业全年工作任务 研 究 ——医药生物行业周报（20240304-0308） 报 [Table 增_R 持at （ing 维] [◼Ta bl主e_要Su观mm点a ry] 告 持） 2024M2 全球及国内医药生物投融资环境继续回暖。据动脉橙产业智 [行Ta业bl:e _Indu医 st药ry]生 物 库不完全统计，2024年2月，全球医疗健康领域共发生193起融资事 日期: s 20h2z4q年da0t3e月m0a9r日k 件（不包括 IPO、定向增发等），披露融资总额约 76 亿美元。其中， 国内市场共发生 60 起融资事件，披露融资总额约 9.25 亿美元；海外 [T分ab析le师_A: utho邓r]周 宇 市场共发生 133 起融资事件，披露融资总额超 66.75 亿美元。从交易 金额、融资事件数量及新兴领域专注度等方面环比 2024M1 全球医疗 Tel: 0755-23603292 健康产业的投融资情况，2024M2 投融资规模整体呈现上升趋势，总 E-mail: dengzhouyu@shzq.com 额环比上升约79.68%。在医药生物细 ...

头部餐饮相继开放加盟，入境免签再扩 证 券 容 研 究 ——社服行业周报（2024.03.04-03.08） 报 [Table 增_R 持at （ing 维] [◼Ta bl主e_要Su观mm点a ry] 告 持） 海底捞开放加盟模式，中国餐饮连锁化率持续走高。海底捞发布公 [行Ta业bl:e _Indu社st会ry]服 务 日期: s 20h2z4q年da0t3e月m1a0r日k 告，将推行海底捞餐厅的加盟特许经营模式，以多元经营模式进一步 推动餐厅网络的扩张步伐。截至 2023 年12 月31 日，海底捞年度持续 [T分ab析le师_A: utho翟r]宁 馨 经营业务收入预计将不低于人民币 414.0 亿元，增加比例不低于 Tel: 021-53686140 33.3%，净利润将不低于人民币 44.0 亿元。撇除汇兑收益及损失的影 E-mail: zhainingxin@shzq.com SAC编号: S0870523100005 响，相较 2023 年上半年，海底捞 2023 年下半年净利润预期增加不低 于 10.0%。2023 年以来，伴随餐饮市场的强势回暖，头部餐饮企业开 [最Ta近bl一e_年Q ...