Macro Analysis - The economic fundamentals are expected to improve in stages, with consumption data likely to show improvement in Q4 due to the implementation of consumption stimulus policies [1] - Current fiscal policies focus on local government debt reduction, alleviating fiscal pressure and creating space for economic development [1] - The Minister of Finance has indicated a rapid increase in bond issuance to quickly generate physical work volume, making a GDP rebound in Q4 a high probability event [1] - The upcoming National People's Congress meeting in early November is a key date to watch for potential fiscal stimulus policies [1][21] A-Share Strategy - The A-share market is currently in the second phase of a bull market, characterized by strong fluctuations and a recovery in market confidence [2] - The market is experiencing healthy rotation among sectors, with a focus on restructuring and technology, leading to good participation and profit-making effects [2] - The upcoming U.S. election results and the National People's Congress meeting are expected to reduce market uncertainties, supporting stable industry development [2] Bond Market - The bond market is anticipated to experience range-bound fluctuations, with low interest rates required due to unstable confidence and insufficient demand [3] - Short-term opportunities are favored, particularly in interbank certificates of deposit and short-duration credit varieties [3] - The expected yield range for 10Y and 30Y government bonds is approximately 2.10%-2.20% and 2.25%-2.35% respectively [3] Airborne Imaging Industry - Airborne imaging is a non-contact imaging technology that does not require a medium for image formation, utilizing flat lenses and various advanced techniques [30] - Compared to holographic projection, airborne imaging has advantages in application principles, lack of medium, and key technologies [30][31] - The technology is expected to see growth in various applications, including home, exhibition, automotive, medical, and educational sectors [31] - The market for smart cockpit solutions incorporating airborne imaging technology is projected to reach 212.7 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 17% [32] Food and Beverage Industry - The white liquor sector is facing pressure in Q3 2024, with overall performance impacted by weak demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival [26] - The industry is expected to recover in Q4, with economic stimulus policies likely to enhance consumer demand [27] - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies with increasing market share, such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [28]

东兴证券研究报告 首席周观点：2024年第45周 P1 首席周观点：2024 年第 45 周2024 年 11 月 8 日 首席观点 周度观点 康明怡 | 东兴证券宏观分析师 S1480519090001，021-25102911，kangmy@dxzq.net.cn 宏观：特朗普回归，美国通胀路径并不明确 特朗普再次当选表明美国社会对通胀和移民容忍度降低。通胀是民主党在选情中最大的软肋， 实际生活成本的通胀压力可能并不与宏观数据一致。在没有出现失业率攀升经济衰退的背景 下，当权党派输掉竞选的情况比较少见。特朗普再次当选，传统蓝州民主党得票率也不及传 统红州共和党得票率，形成"红潮"，共和党取得参议院主导地位，这反映了美国社会生态变 化，促使美国从自由主义再次转向保守，回归"常识"。 特朗普政策推行阻力较小。由于共和党赢得参议院，特朗普政策落地概率提高，如对外关税、 对内减税、减少监管等会进一步加强。马斯克的加入可能对联邦政府改革带来新的变数，政 策可能更加务实，注重效果。但在特朗普第一任期内，不乏有企业界的高管加入，也不乏有 短期内离职的情况。 货币政策取决于通胀，但未来通胀压力并不明确。尽管市场认为特朗普 ...

宏 观 研 究 2024 年 11 月 8 日 宏观经济 事件点评 分析师 康明怡 电话：021-25102911 邮箱：kangmy@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480519090001 未来通胀路径并不一定上行，降息并未结 束 ——11 月美国 FOMC 点评 事件： 美联储降息 25bp，联邦利率从 4.75%~5%降至 4. 5%~4.75%。 主要观点： 1、 鲍威尔认为当前美国经济和就业处于刚刚好的位置，加息没有进入视野，政策利率水平仍处于限制区域。 2、 未来通胀路径并不一定上行，政策利率最终仍有可能降至 4%，但不排除节奏上有所调整。 3、 美国十年期国债利率维持上限 4.6~4.85%，模型不支持突破 5%，期限利差倒挂有望完全修复。 4、 维持美股中性略偏积极，即长线仓位不变，大选后短线仓位可以尝试。 鲍威尔认为美国当前经济和就业处于刚刚好的位置，加息没有进入视野，政策利率仍处于限制区域。记者会聚焦 12 月是否 继续降息，以及明年加息的可能。鲍威尔表示未来的降息节奏将保持灵活，不想太快也不想太慢。他看到经济下行的风险有 所降低，虽然近期 CPI 数据略高于预期，但整体尚可。 ...

Industry Overview - Air imaging is an advanced optical imaging technology that forms real images without the need for a medium, utilizing principles such as inverse reflection, AI panels, light integration, and computational light fields [3][7] - The core product enabling air imaging is the flat lens, which can be made of glass or resin, with glass lenses offering superior imaging quality while resin lenses are more cost-effective [8][20] - Air imaging differs from holographic projection in application principles, medium requirements, and key technologies, with air imaging not requiring a medium and enabling human-machine interaction [12][13] Technical Advantages and Applications - Air imaging offers three main advantages: non-contact interaction, novelty, and privacy protection, with applications in home, exhibition, automotive, medical, public facilities, education, and government services [4][16] - The technology faces barriers in precision, particularly in lens processing and interactive accuracy, which are crucial for image clarity and user experience [16] - Specific applications include non-contact medical kiosks, air teleprompters, non-contact surgical image viewers, and high-repetition-rate nanosecond lasers [17] Industry Players and Market Dynamics - Key players in the air imaging industry include ASKA3D (Japan), Dongchao Technology, Prism Holography, Xianghang Technology, and Yanshi Technology, with ASKA3D being a global leader [4][19][21] - The smart cockpit market in China is expected to grow from 1127 billion yuan in 2022 to 2127 billion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 17%, driven by the adoption of air imaging technology in automotive applications [28][29] - Major automotive manufacturers such as Huawei, BMW, Toyota, and Geely have already adopted air imaging technology, with Huawei's next-generation AITO models set to feature this technology [28][30] Investment Recommendations - The air imaging industry is poised for growth, with the ecosystem gradually maturing through collaboration among content creators, equipment manufacturers, and technical support providers [5][33] - Recommended investment targets include Weishi Electronics, Yidao Information, Shikong Technology, Zhongguang Optics, and Kaisheng Technology, with Weishi Electronics being the top pick [5][33]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for the food and beverage sector is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The white liquor sector's performance in Q3 2024 has been under pressure due to weakened demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival, with revenue and profit growth rates declining compared to the previous quarter. High-end liquor remains stable, while mid-range and real estate liquor show increasing performance divergence. The recovery trend in the white liquor industry is expected to be validated during the upcoming Spring Festival [2][9] - Economic stimulus policies are anticipated to lead to a turning point for the food and beverage industry, with demand expected to improve in the coming months. The Spring Festival is seen as a critical period for verifying changes in industry prosperity [3][10] - Companies with increasing market share, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, are recommended for investment as demand improves and valuations recover [3][10] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry consists of 126 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of approximately 48,728.19 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 47,283.13 billion yuan. The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry is 21.84 [1] Market Performance - Weekly performance across sub-sectors shows: Other Foods +5.50%, Dairy +4.05%, Seasoning and Fermented Products +3.97%, White Liquor -0.05%, Meat Products -0.31%, Beer -0.49%, Yellow Wine (Yangtze) -1.16%, Soft Drinks -2.51%, Other Alcoholic Beverages -3.20% [4][11] - In the liquor sector, the top five performing companies were: Lanzhou Yellow River +16.84%, Huangtai Liquor +15.06%, Shui Jing Fang +9.10%, Hainan Coconut Island +8.49%, Shanxi Fenjiu +7.06%. The bottom five were: Weilang Co. -9.84%, Yingjia Gongjiu -7.84%, Kouzi Jiu -7.38%, Yanghe Co. -6.74%, Qingdao Beer -6.27% [4][12] Company Performance - Notable company earnings reports include: - Anqi Yeast: Revenue of 10.912 billion yuan, up 13.05% YoY [17] - Hengshun Vinegar: Revenue of 1.531 billion yuan, down 6.51% YoY [18] - Water Well Square: Revenue of 3.788 billion yuan, up 5.56% YoY [19] - Shanxi Fenjiu: Revenue of 31.358 billion yuan, up 17.25% YoY [19] - Yili Group: Revenue of 89.039 billion yuan, down 8.59% YoY [21] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include shareholder meetings and stock issuance for various companies, which may impact market dynamics [6][24]

行 业 研 究 分析师：刘嘉玮 010-66554043 liujw_yjs@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号： S1480519050001 非银行金融行业：上交所 10 月新开 户数创年内新高，增量资金有望持 续进场 事件：近日，上交所披露 2024 年 1-10 月 A 股、B 股和基金的开户情况。其中， 10 月单月 A 股开户数达到 684.68 万户，B 股开户数为 0.07 万户，基金开户 数为 54.65 万户。 点评： 从 10 月单月数据看，投资者开户数达到年内高点。上交所 10 月单月 A 股开 户数达到 684.68 万户，环比增长 275%；B 股开户数为 0.07 万户，环比增长 133%；基金开户数为 54.65 万户，环比增长 139%。各统计项的增速均较 9 月进一步上升。从细分数据看，10 月新开户数主要由个人投资者贡献，其中 机构投资者开立股票账户总量和开立 A 股账户数量环比增长约 25%，均远低 于个人投资者股票和 A 股账户开户数增速（275%）。此外，10 月机构投资者 开立股票和 A 股账户数量均低于 1 月和 3 月水平，而个人投资者开立股票和 A 股账户 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the gold industry for November 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The gold market continues to exhibit strong return characteristics, with the price of gold reaching a historical high of $2,734 per ounce by the end of October 2024, reflecting a 32.2% increase from the beginning of the year [4][15]. - The report emphasizes the structural bull market in the gold industry, driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions, inflation, and liquidity conditions, which enhance the asset's hedging properties [4][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Strong Return Characteristics - The gold market in 2024 shows a robust return profile, with gold and RMB-denominated gold returns reaching 29.11% and 27.19% respectively, outperforming major asset classes [4][15]. - The report highlights that gold has provided excess returns compared to Brent crude oil, offshore RMB, the US dollar index, and the S&P 500, indicating its increased value as a hedge against risks and inflation [4][15]. 2. Factors Driving Gold Prices 2.1 Gold's Hedging Properties - The report discusses the significant correlation between gold prices and geopolitical risks, noting that current global war risks are at a historical high, positively impacting gold pricing [5][17]. - The geopolitical risk index has reached levels not seen since the 1973 Middle East War, suggesting continued upward pressure on gold prices due to ongoing conflicts [5][17]. 2.2 Inflation Premium - Global inflation has shown strong persistence, with the average inflation rate rising from 2.6% (2010-2020) to 5.7% (2021-2024), coinciding with an increase in central bank gold reserves [6][27]. - The report indicates that the rising inflation data supports the effective elevation of gold's inflation premium [6][27]. 2.3 Exchange Rate Premium - The effectiveness of gold's exchange rate premium has been observed since 2020, with gold prices in G10 currencies reaching historical highs, reflecting the impact of global trade disputes on exchange rates [7][35]. - The report notes that the RMB gold premium may rise seasonally, particularly during the fourth quarter, aligning with traditional demand peaks [7][36]. 2.4 Interest Rate Cycle - The transition from a tightening to a loosening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to boost gold prices, with historical data showing a 66.7% probability of price increases during previous rate-cutting cycles [8][37]. - The report estimates a potential maximum price increase for gold of 27.3%, targeting $3,315 per ounce [8][37]. 3. Related Companies - The report identifies several companies in the gold sector, including Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Shandong Gold International (000975.SZ), Yulong Shares (601028.SH), and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH) as key players in the industry [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Petty Co., Ltd. [3][4] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in performance, with a revenue of 1.323 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.34%, and a net profit of 155 million yuan, up 630.85% year-on-year [3][4] - The normalization of overseas orders and the release of production capacity in Cambodia have contributed to profit enhancement, with expectations for steady growth in overseas business revenue [3][4] - The domestic brand "Jueyan" has seen rapid growth, with significant sales during promotional events, indicating strong market acceptance [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 477 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.61%, and a net profit of 57 million yuan, up 319.98% year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 28.01%, an increase of 1.66 percentage points compared to the mid-year report, while the net profit margin was 11.80%, up 0.15 percentage points [3] Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 187 million yuan, 229 million yuan, and 278 million yuan respectively, with EPS projected at 0.74 yuan, 0.90 yuan, and 1.10 yuan [4][5] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on its own brands, reducing reliance on agency business, and has successfully launched new products that cater to high-end consumer segments [4] - The "Jueyan" brand achieved over 10 million yuan in sales within the first four hours of a promotional event, ranking first in the pet snack category [4] Production Capacity - The company is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of production capacity in Southeast Asia and the launch of new production facilities in New Zealand, which will contribute to revenue growth [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strongly Recommend" rating for the company, with a positive outlook on its future performance [2][4] Core Views - The company's pig farming business has shown significant profit realization, with a notable improvement in Q3 2024 [2] - The seed business is expected to grow steadily, with both traditional and biotech breeding sectors showing promising potential [2] - The company's feed business, although under pressure, has shown signs of recovery in Q3, with a 7-8% increase in pig feed sales [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.73%, but net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 315.38% to 289 million yuan [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 20.142 billion yuan, down 15.83% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 114.69% to 133 million yuan [2] - The company's pig farming segment generated a profit of 200-250 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a slight increase in piglet costs but overall cost improvements [2] Business Segments - **Feed Business**: The company sold 3.9 million tons of feed in the first three quarters of 2024, a 9.30% year-on-year decrease, with pig feed sales dropping by 10.29% to 3.05 million tons [2] - **Pig Farming**: The company's pig inventory exceeded 4 million heads by the end of September 2024, with a target of 6 million heads for the full year [2] - **Seed Business**: The company sold over 20 million kilograms of seeds in the first three quarters of 2024, a 50% year-on-year increase, with contract liabilities for seed business reaching nearly 1.4 billion yuan [2] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 368 million yuan, 828.78 million yuan, and 1.07476 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.09 yuan, 0.18 yuan, and 0.24 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be 55, 27, and 21 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Market Data - The company's 52-week stock price range is between 3.75 yuan and 7.35 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 21.229 billion yuan [4] - The company's total shares outstanding are 432.372 million, with all shares being tradable A-shares [4]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 特朗普在 2024 年美国大选中赢得多数票。 特朗普再次当选表明美国社会对通胀和移民容忍度降低。通胀是民主党在选 情中最大的软肋，实际生活成本的通胀压力可能并不与宏观数据一致。在没 有出现失业率攀升经济衰退的背景下，当权党派输掉竞选的情况比较少见。 特朗普再次当选，传统蓝州民主党得票率也不及传统红州共和党得票率，形 成"红潮"，共和党取得参议院主导地位，这反映了美国社会生态变化，促使 美国从自由主义再次转向保守，回归"常识"。 特朗普政策推行阻力较小。由于共和党赢得参议院，特朗普政策落地概率提 高，如对外关税、对内减税、减少监管等会进一步加强。马斯克的加入可能 对联邦政府改革带来新的变数，政策可能更加务实，注重效果。但在特朗普 第一任期内，不乏有企业界的高管加入，也不乏有短期内离职的情况。 货币政策取决于通胀，但未来通胀压力并不明确。尽管市场认为特朗普可能 对美联储有所施压，但从经济的客观走势来看，特朗普第一任期内货币政策 基本合理。货币政策的节奏最终取决于通胀压力。以 1984~1986 年降息周期 为例，降息触发点在于当时 ...