光伏行业对等关税征收点评：贸易 壁垒高悬，全球竞争加剧 ——光伏行业事件点评 事件： 4 月 2 日，美国宣布"对等关税"举措，即美国对贸易伙伴设立 10％的"最低基准 关税"，并对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税，包括中国（34%）、越南（46%）、 泰国（36%）、印度尼西亚（32%）、柬埔寨（49%）、老挝（48%）、马来西亚 （24%）。4 月 4 日，中方发布系列反制措施，对原产于美国的所有进口商品， 在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税。 点评： 本次加征对等关税举措与美国扶持本土新能源制造战略相契合。美国一直致力 于提升本土新能源制造产业的相对竞争力，在本次对等关税举措前，美国推出 了通胀削减法案以扶持新能源产业，同时也通过重启反规避调查等举措推升进 口产品关税，在本次对等关税之前，中国光伏行业出口美国的贸易壁垒早已高 悬。美国加征对等关税后，预计随着低成本组件供应进一步缩减，美国光伏组 件等产品的价格或将上涨，进而推升光伏电站投资成本上升，抑制短期光伏新 增装机；从长期看，对等关税的举措，与美国扶持本土新能源制造的战略相符， 或将促进美国光伏制造业的投资和发展。 加征对等关税影响小于双反，边际影响 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴有色金属】有色金属行业：市场情绪高度挥发，金属行业定价有望展 现强韧性——对等关税政策点评（20250407） 衰退预期引导铜价向下调整，供需紧平衡支撑铜定价韧性：中国铜材的出口 区域集中在亚洲地区，24 年对美铜材出口仅 3 万吨，本次市场的大幅波动和 Q1 美国加征铜进口关税预期推动市场多铜交易热情有关。25Q1，受美国或 加征 25%铜关税预期影响，COMEX 铜出现抢进口现象，导致 COMEX 与 LME 铜价差由年初的-2 美元/吨增至 4 月 2 日的 1380 美元/吨，市场定价中 持续计入较多事件性及套利性多头交易（伦铜注销仓单占比由年初 7%增至 近期 46%）。但伴随 4 月 2 日美国对等关税政策出台，美国铜加税预期的交 易逻辑弱化而全球经济衰退的交易逻辑攀升（摩根大通将美国和全球的经济 衰退几率上调至 60%，较之前提高了 20 个百分点），从而导致铜价交易波 动性的加速放大并推动 COMEX 与 LME 铜价差的急速收敛（至 4 月 4 日， 两市价差缩小 614 美元/吨至 766 美元/吨，-44%）。但另一方面，2025 年 全 ...

交通运输行业：关税战导致进出口 货运承压，建议关注内需板块 事件：美国总统特朗普依据 IEEPA（《国际紧急经济权力法》），正式宣布对全 球加征"对等关税"。对全球进口商品加征 10%的基准关税，于 4 月 5 日生效； 对部分经济体征收更高的税率，暂定 4 月 9 日生效。其中，对中国、欧盟、日 本、越南、印度分别加征 34%、20%、24%、46%、26%。 此外，美方宣布取消对来自中国的低价值进口产品的免税待遇，即所谓 800 美 金以下"小包免税"政策。其中通过国际邮政网络寄送的小包裹，需缴纳其价 值 30%或每件 25 美元关税，其余小包裹需正常缴纳所有适用关税。 对此，4 日我国宣布对等反制，自 4 月 10 日起对原产于美国的所有进口商品 加征 34%关税、在世贸组织争端解决机制下起诉美方相关做法、将多家美国实 体或企业列入出口管制管控名单或不可靠实体清单以及对中重稀土相关物项 实施出口管制等。 美国加税的核心目标是吸引制造业回归本土：本次加收的额外关税可以用"美 国对该国贸易逆差/美国自该国的进口总额）/2"的公式近似计算，从结果上看， 不但是中国被加征了非常高的税率，越南为主的东南亚地区关税 ...

农林牧渔行业：关税反制加码，全 面看好农业板块 2025 年 4 月 7 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 事件：4 月 3 日，美国政府宣布"对等关税"计划，其中对中国大陆加征的关 税税率为 34%。4 月 4 日，国务院关税税则委员会发布关于对原产于美国进口 商品加征关税的公告，中国将对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税 税率基础上加征 34%关税。此前，中国已从 3 月 10 日起对原产于美国的部分 农产品加征关税。 关税反制下，关注农产品涨价与农业新质生产力。正如我们在 3 月 5 日发布的 报告《农林牧渔行业：对美农产品加征关税，关注农产品涨价与粮食安全》中 进行的梳理，综合进口量和依存度，高粱、大豆、玉米和棉花受影响较大。此 次关税反制后，我国从美国进口农产品加征税率累计达到 44%/49%，从美进 口农产品完税价格进一步提升。我国近年来自美国进口农产品数量及占比逐步 下降，此次"对等关税"与我国的关税反制政策落地将进一步促使我国农产品供 应格局发生变化，对南美市场进口和国内市场供应占比将提升。短期来看，进 口成本的抬升将推升进口依存度较高的农产品价格上涨；中长期来看，贸易摩 擦加剧，粮食 ...

行 业 研 究 基础化工行业：中美互加关税对化 工品影响几何？ 2025 年 4 月 7 日 看好/维持 基础化工 行业报告 中美互加关税。当地时间 4 月 2 日，美方宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收"对 等关税"，其中给中国的"对等关税"税率达到 34%。4 月 4 日，中国 接连发布多项对美反制措施，包括自 4 月 10 日起，对原产于美国的所 有进口商品加征 34%关税。 对美出口方面：化工品出口至美国的占比约 12%，整体影响有限。根 据海关总署统计，2024 年我国以化学工业及其相关工业产品、塑料及 其制品为代表的化工品出口总金额约为 3707 亿美元，其中对美国出口 的金额约为 446 以美元，占比约为 12.03%。值得注意的是，此次美国 "对等关税"政策中，对于特定产品施行豁免条款，包括部分维生素、氨 基酸、农药产品等。目前来看，我们判断美国关税政策对中国出口占 比较高的化纤、轮胎等商品的需求或存在一定影响，但部分中国轮胎 企业已进行了全球化布局，受到的关税冲击可能有望相应减轻。 对美进口方面：化工品进口自美国的占比约 11.6%，部分原料或受影 响。根据海关总署统计，2024 年我国以化学工业及其相 ...

资本市场动荡金价短期调整，多因素共振或推动黄金上行：在"特朗普交易" （避险情绪上行）与央行购金（去美元中心化+黄金需求提升）双主线加持下， 伦敦现货黄金价格年内已上涨 18%至 3055 美元/盎司（至 4 月 2 日）。美国对 等关税政策出台后，全球资本市场恐慌情绪加大下导致流动性诉求切换，令黄 金价格承压。然而，考虑到对等关税政策或使通货膨胀加剧，这将有效提振黄 金通胀溢价；另一方面，全球地缘政治风险指数及经济政策不确定性已处近125 年来绝对高位及近十年来第二高位，且仍延续上行态势，这将优化黄金避险溢 2025 年 4 月 7 日 看好/维持 有色金属 行业报告 有色金属行业：市场情绪高度挥发， 金属行业定价有望展现强韧性 ——对等关税政策点评 事件：2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国政府宣布对所有国家设立 10%的基准关税，并 对与美国贸易逆差较大的国家和地区征收"对等关税"。其中，对中国输美商 品将在现适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税，但铜、铝、黄金、镍、锂等金属 不受对等关税影响。2025 年 4 月 4 日，中国国务院宣布反制政策，将对原产 于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][18]. Core Insights - The recent announcement of new tariffs by the U.S. government includes a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods and a specific 25% tariff on imported passenger cars, light trucks, and key components [3]. - China's automotive industry has shown resilience, with a projected export volume of 6.41 million vehicles in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 23% [4]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on China's automotive sector is expected to be minimal, as the U.S. is not a major export market for Chinese vehicles [4]. - Domestic automotive parts manufacturers are likely to mitigate tariff impacts through global production strategies and improved operational efficiencies [5]. - The report emphasizes China's leading position in the electric and intelligent vehicle sectors, driven by advancements in technology and the entry of tech companies like Huawei and Xiaomi [5][6]. Summary by Sections Tariff Analysis - The U.S. has implemented a 10% baseline tariff and a 25% tariff specifically targeting the automotive sector, which includes vehicles and key components [3]. Export Performance - China's automotive exports are expected to reach 641 million units in 2024, with significant contributions from countries like Russia, the UAE, and Brazil [4]. Component Manufacturing - The automotive parts sector is projected to export $93.43 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [5]. - Companies are expected to adapt to tariff challenges through local production and enhanced management efficiency [5][10]. Technological Advancements - The report highlights the importance of smart and electric vehicle technologies, with Chinese companies positioned to lead in these areas [5][6]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on companies that are well-positioned in the smart driving sector, particularly those leveraging ICT technologies [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the metal industry pricing is expected to demonstrate resilience despite high market volatility, driven by recent tariff policies and supply-demand dynamics [2][3] - The copper market is experiencing downward adjustments due to recession expectations, but a tight supply-demand balance is likely to support copper pricing resilience [2] - Gold prices have seen an increase of 18% year-to-date, driven by factors such as geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases, although short-term adjustments are anticipated due to market reactions to tariff policies [3][10] - The implementation of export controls on heavy rare earths by China is expected to lead to a bullish outlook for rare earth prices, exacerbating supply-demand mismatches [11] Summary by Sections Copper Market - The copper market is facing downward pressure due to recession fears, with a significant increase in the price differential between COMEX and LME copper [2] - The global copper supply-demand structure is expected to remain tight in 2025, with processing fees for imported copper concentrate dropping to -26.4 USD/ton, indicating a significant supply shortage [2] - China's refined copper production is projected to reach a record high of 13.644 million tons in 2024, supported by favorable processing fees and high by-product prices [2] Gold Market - Gold prices are under short-term pressure due to increased market fear following the implementation of the tariff policy, but inflationary pressures may boost gold's inflation premium [3][10] - The geopolitical risk index is at a near-historic high, which may enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][10] Rare Earth Market - China's recent export controls on seven categories of heavy rare earths are expected to significantly impact overseas supply and drive prices upward [11] - The export quota growth for rare earths in China has slowed to 5.9%, the lowest in six years, indicating tighter supply conditions [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 26.901 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.75% year-on-year [3]. - The growth in revenue was slightly lower than expected, but the profit growth met the company's targets, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency [3][5]. - The company experienced stable growth in core products, with significant contributions from new products, particularly in the soy sauce, seasoning sauce, and oyster sauce categories [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by product was as follows: soy sauce 13.76 billion yuan (+8.87%), seasoning sauce 2.67 billion yuan (+9.97%), oyster sauce 4.62 billion yuan (+8.56%), and other products 4.09 billion yuan (+16.75%) [4]. - The sales growth was primarily driven by volume increases, despite a slight decline in unit prices for soy sauce and seasoning sauce [4]. - Online sales grew significantly, with a 39.78% increase, while offline sales rose by 8.93% [4]. Cost and Margin Improvement - The company's gross margin improved to 37% in 2024, an increase of 2.26 percentage points, attributed to lower raw material costs, particularly for soybeans [5]. - The average soybean cost is projected to decrease by approximately 12.6% year-on-year in 2024, further enhancing profit margins [5]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.29 yuan, 1.42 yuan, and 1.53 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 32, 29, and 27 times [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 26.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.75% year-on-year [3]. - The growth in revenue was slightly lower than expected, but the profit growth met the company's targets [3]. - The company experienced stable growth in its core products, with significant contributions from new products, particularly in the soy sauce, seasoning sauce, and oyster sauce categories [4]. - The gross profit margin improved to 37% in 2024, an increase of 2.26 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.29 yuan, 1.42 yuan, and 1.53 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 32, 29, and 27 times [5]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is approximately 29.084 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.12% growth rate [7]. Product Performance - Revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, oyster sauce, and other products in 2024 was 13.76 billion yuan, 2.67 billion yuan, 4.62 billion yuan, and 4.09 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.87%, 9.97%, 8.56%, and 16.75% [4]. - The sales growth was primarily driven by volume increases, despite a slight decline in unit prices for soy sauce and seasoning sauce [4]. Cost Structure - The company benefited from a reduction in raw material costs, particularly soybeans, which are expected to decrease by approximately 12.6% year-on-year in 2024 [5]. - Selling and administrative expense ratios were 6.05% and 2.09% respectively, reflecting a slight increase due to enhanced market share efforts [5]. Market Position - The company continues to optimize its internal operations, focusing on offline sales while leveraging technology to boost online transactions [4]. - The number of distributors increased by 116 to a total of 6,707 by the end of 2024, indicating a robust distribution network [4].