Investment Summary - The communication sector ranked 25th in terms of growth in the first half of 2025, with a cumulative decline of 4.0% in the Shenwan Communication Index [4][20] - The valuation of the communication sector is at a reasonable level, with a PE (TTM) range of 21.3X-24.8X, and a PE of 23.0X at the end of May [4][22] - The communication industry chain can be divided into three segments: 1) wired and wireless communication networks led by operators; 2) AI computing power industry chain invested by operators and large model manufacturers; 3) integrated applications combining communication networks with various industries, including IoT, vehicle networking, industrial internet, enterprise communication, and satellite internet [4][25] Light Module Market - The light module market is expected to benefit from increased AI capital expenditure by leading cloud computing companies in the US and China, with growth rates projected to remain high despite a decline in growth rates from 70% to 50% for US companies and from 130% to 90% for Chinese companies from 2024 to 2025 [5][38] - The impact of US tariffs on light modules is considered limited, with the tariff rate increasing from 7.5% to 27.5%, leading to short-term order stagnation and a gradual shift of domestic capacity to Southeast Asia [5][38] IDC and AI Computing Centers - The AI-driven IDC sector is entering a new phase, with significant capital investments from major internet platforms and private capital, indicating a growing demand for AI infrastructure [6][9] - The construction and operation of intelligent computing centers are heavily reliant on power supply, and supportive policies from government agencies are anticipated to facilitate this development [6][78] IoT Module Market - Domestic IoT module manufacturers have successfully penetrated overseas markets, with leading companies like Quectel and Guanghetong holding significant market shares [9][88] - The global wireless communication module market is projected to grow from 48.5 billion yuan in 2025 to 72.6 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.6% [91][93] AI Module Market - The global edge AI market is expected to experience explosive growth, with projections indicating an increase from 321.9 billion yuan in 2025 to 1,223 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 39.6% [103][104] - The Chinese edge AI market is also anticipated to grow from 80.2 billion yuan in 2025 to 307.7 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 39.9% [8][106]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry as of June 6, 2025 [3] Core Insights - The global metal industry is currently in a weak supply cycle, with a structural tightening in the gold market and a potential continuous expansion of the silver supply-demand gap [5][10] - The pricing logic of gold has undergone a qualitative change, with supply-demand attributes becoming more significant in determining price resilience [9][43] - The report identifies three main investment themes: industrial metals with resilient supply-demand dynamics, small metals with enhanced growth attributes, and precious metals with strong hedging properties [7][22] Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global metal industry is experiencing a weak supply cycle, with exploration investments declining by 3% to $12.5 billion in 2024 [6][22] - The average supply growth rate for global mining is significantly lower than the output growth rate, with a drop from 6.35% to 2.22% in 2024 [7][23] - The supply state is expected to remain rigid until 2028 due to reduced greenfield exploration investments [6][24] 2. Precious Metals Analysis Gold - The gold market's pricing logic has shifted, with supply-demand attributes now playing a crucial role in price determination [9][43] - Global gold supply is in a structurally tight state, with production costs rising to $1,456 per ounce [46] - Gold demand has reached historical highs, with 2024 demand projected at 4,988 tons, marking a 0.7% increase from 2023 [55][57] Silver - The global silver supply-demand gap is expected to widen, with supply growth projected at a CAGR of only 1.2% from 2024 to 2027 [10][11] - Industrial demand for silver is anticipated to grow, driven by sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [10][11] Platinum - The platinum market is entering a structural supply shortage, with a projected supply gap of 39 tons in 2025 [11][12] - Global platinum supply is expected to decline by 6.2% in 2025, while demand remains resilient [11][12] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the cyclical, growth, and hedging attributes of the metal industry for investment opportunities [7][22] - Specific companies related to gold, silver, and platinum are highlighted for potential investment [9][10][11]

Group 1: Metal Industry Overview - The global metal industry is currently in a weak supply cycle, with exploration investment declining by 3% to $12.5 billion in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decrease [2][3] - The average supply growth rate of global mining is significantly lower than the output growth rate, with actual supply growth dropping from 6.35% to 2.22% in 2024, which is only 49.8% of the 30-year average [3] - Global metal inventories are at a near 35-year low, showing signs of destocking, with total visible inventory down 34.6% from its peak in 2024 [3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Metal Sector - The metal industry is expected to maintain strong resilience despite a low inventory cycle, with three main investment themes: cyclical (supply and inventory cycles), growth (long-term demand expansion), and hedging (against inflation and risks) [4][6] - The copper sector is projected to experience a supply gap, with global copper consumption expected to rise by 11.3% to 11.345 million tons from 2024 to 2027, while supply growth remains constrained [7] - The aluminum sector is seeing structural optimization in bauxite supply, with a self-sufficiency rate that can only support consumption for 7.53 years, leading to a significant increase in demand for bauxite [8] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Lan Jian Intelligent (688557.SH) is a leading company in the smart logistics system sector, focusing on self-research and production capabilities, with a revenue of 1.122 billion yuan from automated warehousing logistics systems in 2024 [10][11] - The company aims to enhance its revenue structure by focusing on high-margin services, with maintenance services achieving a gross margin of 52.05% in 2024 [12][13] - Lan Jian Intelligent is expected to expand its overseas revenue share, which was 2.70% in 2024, as it successfully entered new markets such as Thailand and Mexico [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the smart logistics sector, focusing on self-research and production capabilities in both hardware and software, providing comprehensive solutions across various industries [22][23]. - The revenue structure is designed around "core systems + high-margin services," with significant growth expected in both automated logistics systems and operational maintenance services [25][37]. - The company has potential for substantial growth by benchmarking against global leader Daifuku, particularly in expanding overseas revenue and service offerings [54][62]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, design, production, sales, and service of smart logistics systems centered around intelligent robots, making it one of the few in China with self-research and production capabilities [22][23]. Revenue Structure - The smart warehouse logistics automation system is projected to generate revenue of 1.12 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 30.74%. The operational maintenance service is expected to achieve revenue of 44 million yuan with a gross margin of 52.05% [25][37]. Market Potential - The smart logistics equipment market in China is expected to grow from 449 billion yuan in 2020 to 1,041 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 23.4% [39]. - The penetration rate of smart logistics equipment is anticipated to increase rapidly, driven by advancements in IoT and AI technologies [44]. Competitive Benchmarking - The company aims to emulate Daifuku's success, which has a strong global presence and a diversified revenue stream. The company's overseas revenue share is currently at 2.70%, indicating significant room for growth [62][54]. Future Growth Drivers - The report highlights that AI technology will further drive the logistics industry towards a technology-intensive transformation, enhancing demand for automated systems [73]. - The company is expected to leverage its technological advantages and global layout to transition from passive responses to proactive empowerment in service consulting, potentially becoming a second growth curve [67]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 162 million yuan, 197 million yuan, and 318 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.59, 1.92, and 3.11 yuan [11][79].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the smart logistics sector, focusing on self-research and production capabilities in both hardware and software [22][23]. - The revenue structure is designed around "core systems + high-margin services," with significant growth expected in both automated logistics systems and operational maintenance services [37][9]. - The company has substantial growth potential by benchmarking against global leader Daifuku, particularly in expanding overseas revenue and service offerings [54][56]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, design, production, sales, and service of smart logistics systems centered around intelligent robots, providing comprehensive solutions across various industries [22][23]. Revenue Structure - In 2024, the smart warehouse logistics automation system is projected to generate revenue of 1.122 billion yuan with a gross margin of 30.74%. Operational maintenance services are expected to yield 44 million yuan with a gross margin of 52.05% [37][9]. Market Potential - The smart logistics equipment market in China is expected to grow from 449 billion yuan in 2020 to 1,041 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 23.4% [39][44]. Benchmarking Against Daifuku - The company aims to increase its overseas revenue share, which is currently at 2.70%, by expanding into new markets such as Thailand, Mexico, and Canada, with overseas project contracts reaching 240 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 281% [56][62]. Future Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for automation in logistics driven by AI technology, which is reshaping the industry towards a more technology-intensive model [10][73]. - The operational maintenance and consulting services are anticipated to become a significant growth curve, with gross margins significantly higher than the core logistics automation systems [67][9]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 162 million yuan, 197 million yuan, and 318 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.59, 1.92, and 3.11 yuan [11][79].

Macro - The report highlights that changes in tariff policies have led to some exports being advanced, with a potential continuation of this trend until the end of Q2. A similar decline in exports as seen post-pandemic may occur in the second half of the year [3][11] - Core inflation is stabilizing ahead of general inflation, currently at a low level, with core inflation at 0.6% year-on-year and overall inflation at 2% year-on-year. The report notes that inflation remains influenced by oil and other commodity prices, which are still in negative territory [3][11] - There are increasing signs of fiscal stimulus in developed countries, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, with rising military demand in Europe due to geopolitical tensions [3][11] A-Share Strategy - The A-share market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with increased caution among investors due to tariff news affecting market sentiment. The report suggests that tariffs will continue to be a significant factor influencing the market in the near term [3][13] - The manufacturing PMI for May improved slightly to 49.5%, indicating a mild economic recovery, while the new orders index rose to 49.8%. However, the overall market lacks strong catalysts to break out of its current range [3][13][14] - The report recommends maintaining a moderate position in the market and suggests focusing on structural investment opportunities in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and computing, which are expected to show a strong upward trend [3][14] Fixed Income - The report indicates that the bond market is experiencing a controlled adjustment, with opportunities arising from upward adjustments. The current environment suggests that deposit rates are on a downward trend, with the LPR and deposit rates both having been lowered [4][16][18] - It is expected that the yield on 10-year government bonds will fluctuate within the range of 1.60%-1.70%, with a continued downward trend in bond yields anticipated in the medium to long term [4][18] Banking - The banking sector is showing enhanced configuration value driven by both fundamental and funding factors. Recent adjustments in deposit rates are expected to positively impact banks' net interest margins [5][20] - The report notes that credit growth has remained stable, with a rebound in deposit growth. The overall outlook for bank profitability remains positive, supported by stable earnings and improved fee income as capital markets become more active [5][21][22] Real Estate - New home sales have seen a narrowing decline, while second-hand home transaction activity has decreased. The cumulative sales area of new homes in 32 cities showed a year-on-year growth rate of 0.3% as of May 31 [6][24] - The report suggests focusing on valuation recovery opportunities from policy increments in the short term and emphasizes the importance of leading companies with quality resources in core cities for long-term investment [6][24] Non-Banking - The report emphasizes the investment value of leading insurance companies, noting that the performance of the insurance sector is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and disposable income growth [7][26][28] - It highlights that as the equity market gradually recovers, insurance companies are expected to increase their investments in high-growth quality enterprises, which will help mitigate the impact of fixed income market adjustments [7][28]

Group 1: A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation until July, with market risk appetite decreasing due to rising concerns over US-China tariffs [1][2] - The manufacturing PMI for May improved to 49.5%, indicating a mild economic recovery, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 50.3% [1] - Structural investment opportunities are recommended, focusing on low-valuation sectors and high-dividend stocks as institutional funds continue to favor these areas [2] Group 2: Laser Radar Industry Insights - Laser radar is a non-contact detection and ranging method that uses light pulses to measure distances accurately [4][20] - The global laser radar market is projected to reach 51.2 billion yuan by 2024, with significant applications in automotive and non-automotive sectors [7][22] - Major Chinese companies in the laser radar space include Hesai Technology and RoboSense, with significant advancements in technology and production capabilities [8][23] Group 3: Real Estate Market Analysis - The top 100 real estate companies in China saw a sales amount of 1.31 trillion yuan from January to May, with a year-on-year decline of 7.0% [15][16] - The sales performance of leading companies such as Poly and China Overseas remains strong, with significant market share [17][18] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with quality product resources and strong operational capabilities in core cities [18] Group 4: Express Delivery Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is experiencing intense price competition, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.6% in Q1 2025, but single-ticket revenue continues to decline [24][26] - Major players like Zhongtong and Yunda are adjusting their strategies to regain market share, leading to increased competition [25] - The industry is at a cyclical low, with potential for recovery as price wars may eventually ease, presenting investment opportunities [28] Group 5: Oil and Petrochemical Sector Update - Brent crude oil prices decreased month-on-month, while WTI crude oil prices increased, indicating mixed trends in the oil market [31][33] - The operational capacity utilization rate of US refineries rose to 90.70%, suggesting improved efficiency in the sector [32] - China's crude oil imports decreased by 6.52% month-on-month, reflecting a contraction in demand [32]

Core Insights - The report highlights the mixed performance of oil prices, with WTI crude oil prices rising while Brent crude oil prices fell month-on-month, indicating a divergence in market dynamics [2] - The U.S. refining capacity utilization has improved, while gasoline and distillate fuel supply has decreased, suggesting a tightening supply environment [2] - The report notes a significant decline in China's crude oil import and export volumes, with exports experiencing a notable drop [2] Oil and Petrochemical Industry - WTI crude oil prices increased month-on-month, while Brent crude oil prices decreased, and ESPO crude oil spot prices rose [2] - OPEC and domestic crude oil prices have also seen a decline [2] - In the U.S., refining capacity utilization has increased, but the supply of finished gasoline and distillate fuel products has decreased month-on-month, along with a reduction in inventory levels [2] - U.S. crude oil imports rose, while both imports and exports from China fell, with exports seeing a significant decline [2] Monetary Market Analysis - The central bank has continued to inject liquidity, but the market liquidity has not improved as expected, leading to a slight increase in interest rates [3] - Deposit rates are on a downward trend, reflecting increased efforts to reduce bank funding costs [3] - The report anticipates that deposit rates will continue to decline in the medium to long term, although short-term pressures may arise due to month-end and tax payment demands [3] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to experience controlled adjustments in the second quarter, with upward adjustments presenting trading opportunities [4] - The report maintains a view of downward pressure on bond yields in the medium to long term, driven by ongoing economic uncertainties and the need for policy support [4] Stock Recommendations - The report lists several recommended stocks for June, including Zhongguang Nuclear Technology, Shanjin International, and others, highlighting their strong performance and growth potential [5][9] - Specific companies are noted for their unique advantages, such as Zhongguang Nuclear Technology facing short-term pressure but positioning for future growth [9] Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery industry is facing intense price competition, with a year-on-year increase in package volume of 21.6% in Q1 2025, but a continued decline in single-package revenue [11] - Major players like Zhongtong and Yunda are increasing their market share, intensifying the competitive landscape [11] - The report indicates that the price war is leading to a decline in overall profitability, with significant differences in net profit per package among companies [12][14] - The industry is at a cyclical low, with expectations of a rebound in profitability once the price war eases [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing intense price competition, with a significant increase in shipment volume of 21.6% in Q1 2025, while the average revenue per shipment continues to decline [4][13]. - Major players like Zhongtong and Yuantong are focusing on regaining market share, leading to a more aggressive pricing strategy across the industry [4][24]. - The overall profitability of the industry is under pressure due to the intensified price war, with a notable decline in net profit per shipment across various companies [6][34]. - The report suggests that the marginal returns from the "price for volume" strategy may weaken, as the demand from price-sensitive customers has been largely tapped out [7][44]. - Despite short-term challenges, the industry is viewed as being at a cyclical low, with potential for significant recovery once the price war eases [8][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Volume and Price Situation - The express delivery industry maintained a high shipment growth rate of 21.6% in Q1 2025, but the average revenue per shipment continued to decline, reflecting ongoing price competition [4][13]. - The price war has intensified, with Zhongtong stating that the competition has reached a "white-hot" stage, exacerbating industry challenges [4][13]. 2. Market Structure Changes - In Q1 2025, Shentong and Yunda increased their market shares by 0.5 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, while Zhongtong's market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points [24][26]. - The competitive strategies among major players have aligned towards increasing market share, further intensifying the price war [23][24]. 3. Performance Overview - The price war has led to an overall decline in net profit per shipment, with Zhongtong's net profit per shipment dropping to 0.26 yuan, while Yunda and Shentong reported significantly lower figures [6][39]. - Shentong achieved a 24.2% increase in net profit, showcasing effective cost control and optimization of its franchise system [6][34]. 4. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates diminishing marginal returns from the "price for volume" strategy, as the market for price-sensitive customers becomes saturated [7][44]. - The cost reductions seen in previous years are expected to be less pronounced in 2025 due to high capacity utilization, which will further pressure profitability [7][44]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is currently at a cyclical low, with short-term performance under pressure but potential for significant recovery as the price war subsides [8][50]. - The market's expectations for the express delivery sector are low, indicating a potential opportunity for investors once the competitive landscape stabilizes [8][51].

Group 1: Company Overview - The core strategy of the company is the "three-year doubling" plan, aiming to double its performance by 2026 [2] - The company has a solid channel management and penetration strategy, continuously optimizing its distribution channels [2] - The company has strong product development capabilities, with competitive new products launched last year [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The company is expected to achieve a sales revenue growth of 17.4% in 2025, with a net profit growth of 14.3%, corresponding to an EPS of 0.74 yuan [3] - The target valuation is set at 23 times, with a target price of 17.02 yuan, reflecting a "strong buy" rating [3] Group 3: Industry Insights - The global new energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 18.86 million units in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 24.8% [4] - The domestic market is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with a projected sales volume of 12.85 million units in 2024, up 36.1% year-on-year [4] - The cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage is expected to reach 165.4 GW globally, with lithium battery storage accounting for 98% of this capacity [4] Group 4: Financial Metrics - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a decline in overall revenue due to falling product prices, despite significant increases in output [5] - The overall profit distribution in the industry is shifting towards downstream sectors, with the battery industry capturing the majority of profits [7] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout, with a projected dividend of 0.622 yuan per share for 2024, reflecting a payout ratio of 134.3% [28]