公 司 研 究 伊利股份（600887.SH）：轻舟已过 万重山，期待持续改善 2025 年 5 月 9 日 推荐/维持 伊利股份 公司报告 事件：公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报。2024 年公司实现营业总收入 1157.80 亿元，同比-8.24%；实现归母净利润 84.53 亿元，同比-18.94%；扣 非归母净利润 60.11 亿元，同比-40.04%。25Q1 公司实现营业总收入 330.18 亿元，同比+1.35%；实现归母净利润 48.74 亿元，同比-17.71%；实现扣非归 母净利润 46.29 亿元，同比+24.19%。24 年公司收购的澳优计提 30.37 亿商 誉减值准备，转让控股子公司昌吉盛新实业有限责任公司股权获得 25.80 亿， 剔除此两项，公司 24 年归母净利润同比-13.34%。 奶粉及奶制品为亮点，带动公司增长。液体乳 24/25Q1 收入为 750.03/196.40 亿元，分别同比-12.32%/-3.06%，其中销量/吨价分别同比-7.92%/-4.78%，24 年量价齐跌，但公司持续做大高端低温白奶品类，高端低温白奶营收同比增长 30%以上。25 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴宏观】人民银行降准降息，加大对科创企业金融支持——5 月 7 日人 民银行、金融监管总局、证监会发布会点评（20250507） 人民银行、金融监管总局，证监会发布会，人民银行降准 50bp，降政策利率 10bp，降结构性贷款和住房贷款利率 25bp。 主要观点： 一行一局一会领导肯定了一季度经济表现和资本市场的应对表现，同时没有 回避当前关税对全球和国内经济和金融体系的影响。央行表示将坚定维护中 国的汇市、债市、股市等金融市场平稳运行；证监会表示将努力在市场运行 上体现"稳"，同时在激发市场活力、强化市场功能上体现"进"。政策总体 向企业端倾斜。 货币政策保持货币宽松，降低资金成本，释放长期流动性资金，以及扩大定 向贷款额度。降准降息符合市场预期。此外,定向对汽车金融、金融租赁公司 存准率阶段性降至 0。定向贷款方向符合政治局会议的政策方向，包括"两 新"、服务和养老消费、小微企业以及科技企业。 对科技企业的金融支持愈加具体。一体现在扩大两新贷款额度 3000 亿。二体 现在一行一局一会对科技企业融资方面的全方位支持。从证监会大力发展科 技创新债券，优化发行注 ...

稳定市场信心 强势格局延续 2025 年 5 月 8 日 A 股策略 点评报告 | | | 观点： 政策积极主动，稳定市场信心。节后第一时间召开央行、金融监管总局和证监会负责人参与的新闻发布会，对提振市场 信心作用非凡，市场预期的货币政策落地，降准 0.5%，政策利率下调 0.1%以及住房公积金利率下调 0.25%。设立 3000 亿科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度，设立 5000 亿服务消费与养老再贷款，扶持科技和消费并举。针对资本市场，将 5000 亿证券基金保险互换便利与 3000 亿股票增持回购再贷款合并为 8000 亿额度。扩大互换便利工具参与机构数量，并将港 股、限售股纳入质押范围，有利于相关机构业务开展。将回购增持再贷款上市公司自有资金比例由 30%下调到 10%。相 关政策力度进一步加强，有利于市场各方参与者开展业务。有利于市场对后续政策落地稳定预期。调降保险公司股票投 资风险因子 10%，强调了中央汇金公司对市场稳定起到的重要作用，给市场传递了非常积极的信号。同时，推出公募基 金高质量发展行动方案，针对市场关注的公募基金运作考核机制做出重大改进，有利于激发公募基金活力，增加市场中 长期投资规模。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][20]. Core Insights - The recent monetary policy adjustments, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, are expected to support the real economy and stabilize net interest margins for banks. The central bank's actions are seen as a positive signal for market confidence and credit growth [4][5][10]. - The comprehensive reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points is projected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, which will aid in credit expansion and improve banks' liability stability [4]. - The policy interest rate has been lowered by 10 basis points, which is expected to have a neutral impact on banks' net interest margins, with potential adjustments in deposit rates to follow [5]. - Structural monetary policy tools have also been adjusted, with interest rates lowered and quotas increased to enhance support for key sectors such as agriculture and technology [6][10]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Impact - The central bank's actions, including a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, aim to lower banks' funding costs and stabilize net interest margins. This is expected to enhance credit supply and support economic recovery [4][6]. - The reduction in the policy interest rate by 10 basis points is anticipated to lead to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), with a neutral overall effect on banks' net interest margins [5]. Structural Support Measures - The report highlights the introduction of new structural monetary policy tools, including a reduction in interest rates for various lending programs, which is expected to lower banks' liability costs and improve net interest margins [6][10]. - Specific measures include increasing the quota for loans supporting consumption and technology innovation, which will further bolster targeted sectors [6]. Real Estate and Consumer Impact - The reduction in housing loan rates is projected to decrease the cost of borrowing for consumers, thereby stabilizing the real estate market and encouraging consumer spending [9]. - The report notes that the financial regulatory authority is working on new financing regulations to support the evolving real estate market, which is expected to improve cash flow for real estate companies and reduce non-performing loans [9]. Long-term Investment Outlook - The report suggests that the ongoing encouragement of long-term capital inflows into the market will benefit high-dividend banking stocks, aligning with the demand for stable returns from insurance funds [10][11]. - It emphasizes the potential for improved valuations of banking stocks as the effects of counter-cyclical policies become evident, particularly for banks with strong performance expectations [11].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes proactive policies aimed at stabilizing market confidence, including a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1% reduction in policy interest rates, along with a 0.25% decrease in housing provident fund rates [4] - A total of 800 billion yuan has been allocated for securities fund insurance swaps and stock repurchase loans, which is expected to enhance market participation and stabilize expectations for future policy implementation [4] - The report highlights the importance of the central government in maintaining market stability, as indicated by a 10% reduction in the risk factor for insurance companies' stock investments [4] Group 2 - The market is anticipated to regain activity with a clear structural trend, particularly in the technology sector, driven by artificial intelligence and robotics, while consumer sectors are also expected to benefit from ongoing policy support [5] - Investors are encouraged to increase their positions in the market, focusing on the technology sector, especially in areas like robotics, artificial intelligence, and smart driving, as well as consumer sectors such as home appliances and automotive [5] - The report notes that external demand may begin to impact the market in the second quarter, suggesting a likelihood of index fluctuations within a range [5]

精智达（688627.SH）：半导体业务 爆发，新型显示业务再突破 | 2025 | 年 5 | 月 | 8 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 推荐/维持 | | | | | | 精智达 | 公司报告 | | | | ——2024 年报业绩点评 事件： 2025 年 4 月 25 日，精智达发布 2024 年度报告：公司 2024 年实现营业收入 8.03 亿元，同比增长 23.83%；归母净利润 0.80 亿元，同比下降 30.71%；扣 非归母净利润 0.69 亿元，同比下降 18.37%。 点评： 公司 2024 年度营收同比增长 23.83%，扣非归母净利润同比减少 18.37%，毛 利率短期下滑，半导体业务发展势头强劲。2024 年报告期内，公司实现营业 收入 8.03 亿元，同比增长 23.83%；扣非归母净利润 0.69 亿元，同比下降 18.37%。公司毛利率达 32.82%，同比下降 7.55pct。主要系收入结构战略调 整，毛利率在爬坡阶段，导致整体毛利率有所下滑。分业务来看，新型显示器 件检测实现营收 5.53 亿元，同比减少 2.09%，毛 ...

| 分析师 | 林瑾璐 电话：021-25102905 邮箱：linjl@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480519070002 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 田馨宇 电话：010-66554013 邮箱：tianxy@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480521070003 | 投资摘要： 事件：5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，会上央行、金融监管总局、 证监会提出具体政策措施。 货币宽松落地，债市定价权重趋向基本面 2025 年 5 月 8 日 固定收益 点评报告 | ——国新办新闻发布会点评 | | --- | 固 定 收 益 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 P2 东兴证券固定收益报告 关于降息，主要包括三个方面的内容。①下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，从 1.5%下调到 1.4%，经过市场化的利率传导，预计 将带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）随之下行 0.1 个百分点。中国人民银行还将通过利率自律机制引导商业银行相 ...

精智达（688627.SH）：半导体业务 爆发，新型显示业务再突破 | 2025 | 年 5 | 月 | 8 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 推荐/维持 | | | | | | 精智达 | 公司报告 | | | | ——2024 年报业绩点评 事件： 半导体存储器件测试设备领域，公司持续加强产品市场优势并丰富产品类。报 告期内，公司 DRAM 老化测试修复设备、MEMS 探针卡等产品出货量持续提 升，保持国产设备供应商中的领先地位。公司具备晶圆裸片测试功能、旨在提 升客户研发设计和品质验证效率的存储器通用测试验证机获得批量订单并且 实现验收，自主研发测试机平台已经获得客户认可。与此同时公司持续推动满 足针对先进封装测试要求的升级版 CP 测试机、高速 FT 测试机等核心测试 设备研发及客户验证工作。根据 TechInsights 的数据显示，2024 年全球存储 器测试设备销售额达到 15 亿美元，同比增长 36.4%，预计 2025 年将进一步 攀升至 19 亿美元，年复合增长率达 26.7%。存储测试机目前主要被爱德万、 泰瑞达等国外厂商占据主要市场份额，国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook despite short-term challenges from tax policy changes [3][4]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 24.056 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.688 billion yuan, up 8.01% [1]. - The company's air freight business saw a revenue decline of 0.90% to 9.035 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.58%, down 5.04 percentage points [1]. - The comprehensive logistics solutions segment experienced significant growth, with revenue reaching 12.476 billion yuan, a 36.72% increase, and a gross margin of 15.89%, up 2.37 percentage points [2]. - The ground services segment reported a slight decrease in gross margin to 36.16%, despite a 6.91% increase in revenue to 2.531 billion yuan [2]. - The company is expected to face short-term disruptions due to new tax policies affecting cross-border e-commerce, leading to a cautious adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.486 billion yuan, a 5.02% year-on-year increase, but a decline in net profit by 7.40% to 545 million yuan due to increased tax expenses [1][2]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.3 billion, 2.68 billion, and 2.94 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.45, 1.69, and 1.85 yuan [3][8]. - The company's PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 8.7, 7.5, and 6.8 times, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [3][8]. Business Segments Overview - The air freight business's daily utilization rate for all-cargo aircraft reached 13.01 hours, with a load factor of 82.17%, reflecting operational efficiency [1]. - The decline in profitability in the passenger aircraft cargo segment is attributed to a significant drop in gross profit, which fell to -80 million yuan from 417 million yuan in the previous year [1][2]. - The company is actively responding to market changes by optimizing capacity and focusing on high-demand areas, particularly in cross-border e-commerce logistics [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook despite short-term challenges from tax policy changes [3][4]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 24.056 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.688 billion yuan, up 8.01% [1]. - The company's air freight business saw a revenue decline of 0.90% to 9.035 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.58%, down 5.04 percentage points [1]. - The comprehensive logistics solutions segment experienced significant growth, with revenue reaching 12.476 billion yuan, a 36.72% increase, and a gross margin of 15.89%, up 2.37 percentage points [2]. - The ground services segment reported a slight decrease in gross margin to 36.16%, despite a 6.91% increase in revenue to 2.531 billion yuan [2]. - The company is expected to face short-term disruptions due to new tax policies affecting cross-border e-commerce, leading to a cautious adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.486 billion yuan, a 5.02% increase year-on-year, but a decline in net profit by 7.40% to 545 million yuan due to increased tax expenses [1][2]. - The air freight business's gross margin improved to 34.03%, benefiting from higher freight rates, while the passenger aircraft cargo business saw a significant profit drop [1][2]. - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 2.3 billion, 2.682 billion, and 2.938 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.45, 1.69, and 1.85 yuan [3][9].