Economic News - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need for central enterprises to enhance budget management and cost control across all aspects of operations [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aim for a total installed capacity of 15 million kilowatts for solar thermal power by 2030, with costs comparable to coal power [2] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed measures to promote the sale of existing homes and optimize affordable housing supply [2] - The General Administration of Customs conducted research on cutting-edge technology development and technology transfer [2] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has begun exporting self-produced goods with a value of 32,000 yuan, benefiting from over 12% cost savings [2] - The Shanghai Municipal Finance Bureau announced a subsidy for pig income insurance, with the municipal government covering 50% of the premium [2] - The U.S. economy showed a revised annualized GDP growth of 4.3% in Q3, exceeding expectations [2] - Japan reported a leak of radioactive water from a new reactor, with ongoing investigations into external radiation exposure [2] - Brazil confirmed anti-dumping duties on automotive glass from China, with specific rates for Malaysian producers [2] - South Korea's BC Card completed a pilot project for stablecoin payments, allowing foreign users to pay local merchants [2] Company Insights - Haibo Technology plans to invest 2 billion yuan in a smart green energy storage factory, expected to be completed by December 2028 [6] - Zhenyu Technology's subsidiary signed a strategic cooperation agreement to invest at least 1 billion yuan in projects related to new energy vehicle components and humanoid robots [6] - Huaxin Cement's major shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by 200 million to 400 million yuan within six months [6] - Biological Shares' major shareholder intends to increase its stake by 50 million to 100 million yuan over the next year [6] Industry Strategy Agriculture Sector - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines for the agriculture sector in 2026, with an emphasis on pig farming, feed, and pet food [7][9][10] - The pig farming industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on cost management as a key factor for long-term growth [7] - The report highlights the potential for leading companies like Muyuan Foods to benefit from improved valuations and market conditions [8] Feed and Veterinary Medicine - The veterinary medicine sector is shifting towards innovation, with companies that prioritize R&D expected to thrive [9] - The feed industry is anticipated to see stable demand supported by high livestock inventory, with leading companies likely to gain market share [9] Pet Food Market - The domestic pet food market is projected to grow, with local brands gaining market share despite tariff disruptions [10][11]

农林牧渔行业：农产品保供稳价， 积极推进农业高质量发展 坚持创新驱动，培育农业新质生产力。中央经济会议提出要实施新一轮重点产 业链高质量发展行动；深化拓展"人工智能+"，完善人工智能治理。农业作为 传统行业也要发展新质生产力，以智能化赋能产业高质量发展。结合《加快建 设农业强国规划（2024-2035）》的内容，农业科技领域我们建议关注生物育种 创新、农业机械升级和智慧农业三个方向。生物育种方面推荐标的隆平高科、 大北农，其他受益标的登海种业、荃银高科等；农业机械受益标的一拖股份、 吉峰科技、中联重科等；智慧农业受益标的托普云农、富邦股份等。 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议点评 事件：中央经济工作会议 2025 年 12 月 10 日-11 日在北京召开，会议全面总 结 2025 年经济工作，深刻分析了当前经济形势，并对 2026 年经济工作进行 重点部署。会议对农业工作的部署聚焦粮食安全底线和乡村振兴战略。 抓好粮食生产，农产品稳保供给。中央经济会议提出要严守耕地红线，毫不放 松抓好粮食生产，促进粮食等重要农产品价格保持在合理水平。粮食安全与农 产品稳保供给再次作为基本准则获得政策关注。此外，生猪是农产品 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - In November, the average price of live pigs continued to decline, but the rate of decline narrowed. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 24.25 CNY/kg, 12.55 CNY/kg, and 23.05 CNY/kg respectively, with month-on-month changes of -5.99%, -0.20%, and -1.54% [3][18] - The supply side showed active slaughtering, with competitive pressure on large-scale enterprises. The overall supply was loose, while the demand side lacked strong support, leading to a decrease in the slaughtering rate [21] - The production capacity is on a downward trend, with the number of breeding sows decreasing to 39.90 million heads by the end of October, a month-on-month decline of 1.10% [4][27] - The industry is expected to see accelerated capacity reduction due to policy adjustments and ongoing losses in breeding operations, with a potential price rebound anticipated in the second half of 2026 [5][31] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Performance - In November, the slaughtering rate of live pigs decreased by 0.30 percentage points to 34.12%, indicating a lack of strong demand support [21] - The average slaughter weight of pigs slightly declined, with the average post-slaughter weight around 88 kg [21] Capacity Changes - The number of breeding sows has been decreasing, with a reported 39.90 million heads by the end of October, reflecting a trend of capacity reduction [4][27] - The policy environment is focused on capacity control, which is expected to accelerate the reduction of less efficient production capacity [5][27] Market Outlook - The industry is expected to experience a turning point in prices in the second half of 2026, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods expected to benefit from cost advantages [5][32] - The industry index price-to-book ratio (PB) has shown some recovery but remains below historical median levels, indicating a safety margin for valuations [5][32] Sales Data - In November, major companies reported mixed sales performance, with Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others showing slight month-on-month changes in sales prices [34][37] - The total sales volume for listed pig companies in November decreased by 2.90% month-on-month but increased by 27.01% year-on-year [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the satellite internet industry in China as it enters a new phase of accelerated networking and industrialization by December 2025 [2]. Core Insights - The satellite internet industry in China is rapidly evolving, with significant contributions from both state-owned and private enterprises, leading to the formation of various satellite constellations such as GW and Qianfan [4][36]. - The domestic satellite internet sector is expected to see a surge in satellite launches, with China Star Network (GW constellation) completing 17 satellite launches by December 10, 2025, totaling 125 satellites in orbit [4][36]. - The report highlights the growing demand for satellite payloads, emphasizing the need for cost-effective mass production of satellites and the importance of key component suppliers [4][38]. - The commercial space launch sector is experiencing a shortage of launch slots, benefiting companies involved in the construction of launch facilities [5][56]. - Private rocket companies are crucial in addressing the launch capacity bottleneck for large-scale satellite constellations, with several companies making significant advancements in reusable rocket technology [6][38]. - The report outlines a strategic investment approach for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating that commercial space will be a key driver of high-quality technological development in China [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Satellite Internet Development - The satellite internet industry is transitioning into a broadband internet phase, with significant advancements in satellite constellations and payload technologies [18][20]. - The report identifies three phases of satellite internet commercialization, highlighting the evolution from competing with terrestrial networks to integration with them [18][19]. 2. Satellite Payload Opportunities - The report identifies key components in satellite payloads, including onboard base stations, routers, phased array antenna systems, and laser inter-satellite links, which are critical for the development of satellite internet [38][39]. - The integration of satellite and terrestrial networks is emphasized, with a focus on creating a comprehensive communication architecture [38][41]. 3. Commercial Launch Facilities - The report notes the current shortage of launch slots in China's commercial space sector, with only one operational commercial launch site, leading to increased demand for new facilities [5][56]. - The ongoing construction of the second phase of the Hainan commercial launch site is expected to significantly increase launch capacity by 2026 [5][56]. 4. Private Rocket Companies - The report highlights the strategic importance of private rocket companies in overcoming the launch capacity challenges for satellite constellations, with several companies actively pursuing reusable rocket technologies [6][38]. - The potential reduction in launch costs through advancements in reusable technology is noted, with estimates suggesting costs could drop from approximately 100,000 RMB per kilogram to below 30,000 RMB [6][38]. 5. Investment Strategy - The report outlines an optimistic investment strategy for the satellite internet industry, anticipating accelerated growth in satellite launches and the involvement of private companies in supporting high-frequency launch demands [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is significant room for the revaluation of Chinese assets, with the stock market expected to enter a slow bull market in 2025, reflecting a process of asset revaluation in China [3][17] - Since 2021, China has entered a real estate downturn, leading to increased downward pressure on the asset side of government and household balance sheets, indicating a transition period for Chinese assets [3][19] - The structure of China's economy is changing, with the tertiary industry increasing its share, and low-end manufacturing gradually moving overseas, indicating a shift towards high value-added services [3][21][25] Group 2 - Liquidity is expected to support the upward trend of the stock market, with the US remaining in a rate-cutting cycle and China having limited room for rate cuts, projected to implement 1-2 cuts in 2026 [4][47] - There are signs of domestic residents' deposits migrating towards the stock market, with a trend of "savings migration" expected to continue as the stock market enters a long-term slow bull phase [4][55] - Institutional investment from long-term entities like insurance and securities firms is gradually increasing, which will further release investment space in the stock market [4][59] Group 3 - A turning point in performance is anticipated, with the overall ROE of A-shares entering a downward cycle since Q2 2021, showing signs of bottoming out in 2025 and expected to rebound in 2026 [5][63] - The profit structure of the A-share market is uneven, with non-bank sectors contributing nearly 60% of total profits, while sectors like real estate and coal show negative contributions [5][65] - The expected profit growth rate for the A-share market in 2026 is around 12%, with significant contributions from sectors like power equipment and electronics [5][69] Group 4 - The year 2026 marks the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of technological innovation and the establishment of a modern industrial system, which will guide economic development [6][79] - There is an increasing likelihood of transitioning from a passive destocking cycle to an active restocking cycle, which will support both the economy and the stock market [6][18] - The relationship between PPI and industrial enterprise profits indicates that PPI typically leads profit growth by 1-2 quarters, suggesting a potential upward trend in profits as PPI rises [6][20] Group 5 - Investment styles are expected to shift from structural to balanced, with a recovery in consumption likely as the economy enters a phase of restorative growth [7][21] - The investment strategy for 2026 should focus on maintaining confidence in the bull market and leveraging the narrative of long-term investment opportunities [7][23] - Key sectors to watch include technology and overseas expansion opportunities, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, and renewable energy [7][24][8]

Economic Overview - The US economy is in the later stages of a soft landing following a high inflation and interest rate cycle, with internal momentum weakening[4] - Consumer spending is showing signs of weakness compared to last year, while AI investments are supporting overall investment levels[4] - The labor market is cooling, with credit growth for households and businesses at low levels, indicating characteristics of a potential economic downturn[4] Labor Market - The employment rate has dropped to levels comparable to 2009, with voluntary resignation rates falling to 2008 levels, while layoffs remain low[5] - The unemployment rate is gradually rising but remains at a relatively reasonable level, particularly affecting younger demographics[5] - A significant portion of the unemployed is concentrated among younger individuals, indicating a need for substantial interest rate cuts[5] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Short-term inflation pressures are low, but medium to long-term inflation risks persist, with the Fed expected to cut rates by 50-75 basis points in 2026[6] - Tariffs are acting similarly to consumption and intermediate goods taxes, suppressing consumption and investment, with their effects expected to diminish by mid-2026[6] - The Fed's current monetary policy is neutral and insufficient to alleviate rising unemployment rates[6] Fiscal Policy and Investment - The US is expected to experience a dual easing of monetary and fiscal policies, which may help avoid a full-blown recession[7] - The capital market is seeing a decrease in the correlation between the 10-year Treasury yield and policy rates, indicating a belief that rate cuts may be nearing their end[7] - AI investments are significantly boosting fixed investments, counteracting the suppressive effects of high interest rates on overall investment[4] Stock Market Outlook - The US stock market is currently viewed as being in a bubble, with the S&P 500 exceeding its long-term trend by 41%[8] - Despite the bubble, the short-term risks to the stock market are considered low due to the easing of regulations and the AI investment boom[8] - Caution is advised in maintaining long-term positions, with close monitoring of liquidity flows recommended[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next 6 months [4]. Core Insights - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, with a current price of 4143.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 212 CNY/ton (8.06%) and a year-on-year drop of 363 CNY/ton (4.87%) [9][10]. - The apparent consumption of natural gas in China for October was 34.866 billion cubic meters, showing a month-on-month decrease of 460 million cubic meters (1.30%) but a year-on-year increase of 472 million cubic meters (1.37%) [2][18]. - European natural gas imports in November increased both month-on-month and year-on-year, totaling 176,299.99 million cubic meters, which is a month-on-month increase of 7,244.29 million cubic meters (4.29%) and a year-on-year increase of 12,477.26 million cubic meters (7.62%) [3][27]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Prices - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have decreased to 4143.00 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month decline of 8.06% and a year-on-year decline of 4.87% [9][10]. - The NYMEX natural gas futures price has decreased to 4.04 USD/MMBtu, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 10.94% [9][10]. Supply and Demand - China's natural gas production in November was 589,350.00 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12,090.00 tons (2.01%) [2][18]. - The apparent consumption of natural gas in China for October was 34.866 billion cubic meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.30% but a year-on-year increase of 1.37% [2][18]. Inventory - As of December 12, U.S. LNG/LPG inventory was 179,263.00 thousand barrels, showing a month-on-month decrease of 16,782.00 thousand barrels (8.56%) but a year-on-year increase of 24,727 thousand barrels (16.00%) [20][23]. - European natural gas inventory as of December 15 was 79.129 billion kWh, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 14.488 billion kWh (15.48%) and a year-on-year decrease of 10.299 billion kWh (11.52%) [22][25]. Imports and Exports - In November, European imports of natural gas increased to 176,299.99 million cubic meters, a month-on-month increase of 4.29% and a year-on-year increase of 7.62% [3][27]. - Imports of natural gas from Russia to Europe in November were 10,745.70 million cubic meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.17% but a year-on-year decrease of 46.04% [28].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Domestic thermal coal prices have decreased, while the offshore price at Newcastle, Australia has increased. As of December 15, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 736.00 CNY/ton, down 91 CNY/ton (11% decrease) from the previous month [2][10] - In November, coal production from key state-owned mines in Shaanxi decreased month-on-month, while production in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia increased. The total coal inventory at three major ports rose month-on-month and year-on-year, and the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year [3][40] - Domestic freight rates have decreased month-on-month, while international shipping rates showed mixed trends. The freight rate from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai was 23.80 CNY/ton, down 48.37% month-on-month [4][49] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of December 15, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 736.00 CNY/ton, down 91 CNY/ton (11% decrease). Prices in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi also saw month-on-month declines [2][10][13] - The offshore price of thermal coal at Newcastle was 108.60 USD/ton, up 0.30 USD/ton (0.28% increase) [18] 2. Production - In November, coal production from key state-owned mines was as follows: Shaanxi produced 21.74 million tons (2.47% increase year-on-year, 2.18% decrease month-on-month), Shanxi produced 51.04 million tons (4.45% decrease year-on-year, 3.28% increase month-on-month), and Inner Mongolia produced 19.64 million tons (0.71% increase year-on-year, 4.70% increase month-on-month) [3][22] 3. Inventory - As of December 15, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, and Caofeidian ports was 14.90 million tons, up 200.80 thousand tons (15.58% increase month-on-month) [3][31] 4. Downstream Demand - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 826,600 tons, up 3.05 thousand tons (3.83% increase month-on-month) but down 3.29 thousand tons (3.83% decrease year-on-year) [40][43] 5. Freight Rates - Domestic freight rates have decreased month-on-month, with the rate from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai at 23.80 CNY/ton, down 48.37% [4][49]

Economic News - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued opinions on implementing the notification regarding domestic product standards in government procurement, emphasizing equal treatment for domestic and foreign enterprises [1] - The National People's Congress further supports the development of digital and green trade in the revised draft of the Foreign Trade Law, promoting the construction of a cross-border financial service system [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 673 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level [1] - The Audit Office reported that 10.335 billion yuan related to issues found in the 2024 central budget execution and other financial audits has been rectified [1] - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the ASML semiconductor issue, urging for internal dispute resolution and reiterating that the root cause lies in improper administrative intervention by the Dutch government [1] Important Company Information - Sanhua Intelligent Control expects a net profit of 3.874 billion to 4.649 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 25% to 50% [2] - Weisi Medical plans to sell a property and related fixed assets in Nanjing for a total price of 119 million yuan, which is expected to have no impact on the company's revenue and net profit for 2025 [2] - Ningbo Huaxiang's subsidiary signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shenzhen Dahuan Robot Technology Co., focusing on the development and sales of general humanoid robot dexterous hands [4] - Tongyu Communication's subsidiary plans to introduce investors through a capital increase, raising 10 million yuan to enhance its capital strength for satellite communication product development [4] - EVE Energy held a groundbreaking ceremony for its "EVE Sodium Energy Headquarters and Jinyuan Robot AI Center" project [4] Industry Outlook - The computer industry is expected to focus on the "fundamentals, cost-effectiveness, and attractiveness" framework for investment, with AI remaining the core theme driven by policy support, technological evolution, and demand release [6] - The global demand for AI computing resources is projected to grow significantly, with the domestic intelligent computing center resource demand expected to increase from 2016 MW in 2024 to 9480 MW in 2027, representing a CAGR of 67.5% [6] - Despite the overall high valuation of the sector, certain segments such as domestic computing and specific digitalization fields are expected to offer better cost-effectiveness [6] - The investment strategy emphasizes focusing on AI-related sectors, including domestic AI chips, AI servers, and intelligent computing services, while also considering emerging industries like quantum technology and low-altitude economy [7][8]

Core Insights - The report highlights the "anti-involution" policy as a catalyst for coal price recovery, with expectations for stable price increases in 2026. The lowest price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was 610 RMB/ton in June 2025, while it rose to 813 RMB/ton by December 1, 2025, indicating a recovery trend [7][8] - The coal industry is expected to shift from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" due to regulatory measures and market mechanisms, which will likely lead to a decrease in domestic coal production in 2026 [8][12] - The demand for thermal power is projected to remain resilient, supported by AI computing power driving new electricity demand, with a forecasted increase in coal consumption due to sustained thermal coal demand [9][10] Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the coal industry, emphasizing the need for self-discipline and capacity checks, which may lead to a reduction in production capacity and a tightening of imports [8][12] - The report notes that the coal price index fluctuated between 1100 and 1570 RMB/ton in 2025, with a significant increase in prices following the implementation of long-term contracts [7][8] - The report anticipates that the coal industry will see a shift towards high-quality development, with a focus on stable dividends and improved return on equity (ROE) for listed companies [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in leading coal companies with strong resource endowments, cost advantages, and stable dividend policies, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [12] - It also recommends companies with growth potential based on their production capacity and profitability, including Guanghui Energy and Huayang Co [12]