东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 6 月 13 日星期五 分析师推荐 静待行业自律+技术创新助力供给侧优化。抢装带动 25 年 Q1 业绩回暖，但全 行业仍处于亏损阶段，产能出清仍在进行时。在此背景下，行业自律与技术 创新成为破局关键。一方面，头部企业或将牵头建立产能规划协调机制，通 过签订自律公约避免恶性竞争，引导资源合理配置；另一方面，新型电池技 术量产效率持续提升，去银无银化技术突破，加速推动产线升级迭代。随着 自律机制完善与技术革新，光伏行业有望加速淘汰落后产能，优化供给结构。 硅料与电池片环节将成行业供给侧优化的核心抓手。硅料环节一方面生产流 程复杂，启停成本高昂，还原炉启停需经过高温冷却、气体置换等一系列操 作，若停产时间长，还需进行吹扫排空、氮气保护等维护措施，进一步增加 成本。另一方面，硅料行业头部厂商集中，技术实力强、规模大的同时，一 体化程度相对低、利益相对一致，面临困境时，头部企业也更容易达成减产 协议。电池片环节承担着光伏技术进步的重任，新技术不断涌现，各技术路 线均需要持续技术迭代以维持自身产线竞争力。 【东兴电力设备及新能源】光伏行业：静待供给侧优化，关注降银金属化新 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the AI wave is driving the electronic industry into a new development phase, with three core areas showing significant growth momentum: wafer foundry, SoC, and thermal management materials [2][3][6]. Wafer Foundry - The wafer foundry segment is expected to benefit from AI development, particularly in servers, data centers, and storage, which are the fastest-growing sub-markets. Global semiconductor sales are projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, with wafer demand expected to reach 11.2 million pieces per month in 2025 and grow to 15.1 million by 2030. The growth rates for 2024 and 2025 are forecasted at 6% and 7%, respectively [2][3]. SoC (System on Chip) - AI technology is becoming a crucial component of SoC architecture, enhancing smart processing capabilities for edge devices. The global SoC market is predicted to grow from $138.46 billion in 2024 to $205.97 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% from 2024 to 2029. The demand for SoC in the automotive sector is also rising significantly [3][6]. Thermal Management Materials - The demand for thermal management materials is expected to grow rapidly due to the increased heat generation from AI-enabled devices. The global thermal management market is projected to expand from approximately $15.98 billion in 2023 to $26.43 billion by 2028, with an average annual growth rate of 10.5% [6][7]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is currently in a phase of supply-side optimization driven by self-discipline and technological innovation. The first quarter of 2025 saw a performance recovery due to installation rushes, but the industry remains in a loss phase. Key areas for supply-side optimization include silicon materials and battery cells, with a focus on reducing silver usage in production [6][7][8]. Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a recovery in market conditions, with solid-state batteries and sodium batteries expected to reach a scale application phase. The report suggests that the overall profitability of the lithium battery sector is improving, driven by new technologies and increasing demand from emerging applications [14][15][16]. Metal Industry - The report indicates that the supply-demand structure in the metal industry is improving, particularly for magnesium and lithium. The magnesium industry is expected to enter a state of sustained tight balance, while the lithium supply surplus is gradually improving. The global magnesium demand is projected to grow significantly due to its applications in lightweight and green technologies [18][19][23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic industry is expected to benefit from supply-side optimization driven by industry self-discipline and technological innovation. The first quarter of 2025 saw a performance recovery due to a rush in installations, but the entire industry remains in a loss phase, with capacity clearing still ongoing. Key areas for supply-side optimization include silicon materials and battery cells, which are crucial for the industry's recovery [4][30] - The reduction of silver usage in photovoltaic technology is a significant cost-saving direction. New technologies such as copper plating and copper paste are being explored to replace expensive silver, while process improvements aim to reduce silver paste usage [5][37] - The report highlights the importance of technological iteration in battery cells, which are essential for maintaining competitiveness in the photovoltaic sector. The ongoing development of new technologies is expected to lead to a gradual clearing of outdated production capacity [35][56] Summary by Sections 1. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The global photovoltaic installation growth rate is slowing, with an expected 530 GW of new installations in 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 35.9%. In China, new installations are projected to reach 277.57 GW, a 28.3% increase year-on-year, driven by policy-induced rush installations [14][15] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in domestic installations, with 104.93 GW added, marking a 74.6% year-on-year growth. However, the overall industry is still facing overcapacity issues [4][14] 2. Key Areas for Supply-Side Optimization - The silicon material segment is highlighted as a core area for supply-side optimization due to its complex production process and high start-stop costs. Major players in this segment are more likely to reach production cut agreements during challenging times [30][31] - The battery cell segment is undergoing rapid technological advancements, with new techniques being introduced to enhance efficiency and reduce costs. This segment is expected to see a gradual clearing of outdated capacity as leading companies continue to invest in upgrades [35][56] 3. Cost Reduction Strategies - The report emphasizes the ongoing push for silver reduction in photovoltaic technology, with copper-based alternatives being explored. The cost structure of battery cells indicates that silver paste accounts for 27.3% of battery costs, making it a target for reduction efforts [37][40] - New technologies such as the 0BB and multi-busbar (MBB) techniques are being developed to minimize silver usage while improving efficiency. The report notes that these innovations could lead to significant cost savings and increased demand for auxiliary materials [5][46] 4. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry is currently in a phase of overcapacity, with the need for production capacity clearing still present. The focus should be on segments with rapid technological iteration, such as battery cells and silicon materials, which are expected to see faster capacity clearing [54][56] - The report recommends monitoring companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, such as 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power Supply) and 德业股份 (Deye Technology) [6][57]

Investment Summary - The electronic industry index has outperformed the ChiNext index from the beginning of the year until June 4, 2025, driven by the AI model innovation wave led by DeepSeek and the continuous iteration of AI applications on the terminal side [4][14][15] - The total market value held by funds in the electronic industry as of Q1 2025 was 570.558 billion, with a decrease in the proportion of circulating A-shares to 4.78% [4][20][30] - The semiconductor sector accounted for 90% of the top ten companies in fund holdings within the electronic industry [23] Core Areas of Growth 1. Wafer Foundry - The wafer foundry sector is expected to benefit from AI development, with the fastest-growing sub-markets being servers, data centers, and storage, projected to reach over $1 trillion in global semiconductor sales by 2030 [4][44] - The global wafer monthly demand is expected to reach 11.2 million pieces in 2025 and grow to 15.1 million pieces by 2030, with growth rates of 6% and 7% in 2024 and 2025 respectively [4][47] - Beneficiary companies include SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor [4][52] 2. System on Chip (SoC) - AI technology has become a crucial component of SoC architecture, enhancing smart processing capabilities for edge devices, with the global SoC market projected to grow from $138.46 billion in 2024 to $205.97 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 8.3% [5][80] - The demand for SoC is significantly driven by mobile devices, IoT devices, and wearable devices, with increasing needs for energy efficiency and compact size [5][80] - Beneficiary companies include Rockchip, Hengxuan Technology, Allwinner Technology, and others [5] 3. Thermal Management Materials - The thermal management materials market is expected to grow from approximately $15.98 billion in 2023 to $26.43 billion by 2028, with an average annual growth rate of 10.5% [5] - The demand for thermal management materials is driven by the increasing heat generation and cooling requirements of consumer electronics, particularly AI-enabled devices [5] - Beneficiary companies include Sifang New Materials, Lingyi Manufacturing, Suzhou Tianmai, and others [5]

Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a recovery in overall prosperity, with solid-state batteries and sodium batteries expected to reach a scale application node by 2025 [1][4][19] - The report highlights the potential for profit recovery and valuation enhancement in the sector as new technologies continue to commercialize from 2025 to 2026 [4][19] Demand Side - The domestic market is seeing high growth driven by policies such as the vehicle replacement program, with cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reaching 4.299 million units from January to April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 46.3% [20][21] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic market reached 42.7%, up 10.4 percentage points year-on-year [20] - The commercial vehicle segment is particularly strong, with new energy commercial vehicle sales increasing by 66.9% year-on-year in the same period [21] Sector Performance - The battery segment is expected to see simultaneous revenue and profit growth, benefiting from new demand in low-altitude and robotics applications, as well as the commercialization of solid-state batteries [4][46] - The report notes that the lithium battery industry has emerged from a bottoming cycle, with various segments expected to see profit levels return [19][46] New Technologies and Industry Trends - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to accelerate in application due to rising demand in sectors like eVTOL and humanoid robots, with companies that have a technological lead likely to benefit [6][19] - Sodium batteries have crossed the threshold for large-scale cost efficiency, with significant demand growth in extreme environment storage and electric two-wheelers [6][19] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies like Guoxuan High-Tech and CATL, which are expected to benefit from new customer orders and overseas expansion [4][5] - The materials segment is projected to see a return to profitability as industry concentration increases, particularly for ternary cathode materials [5][19] Profit Forecasts and Ratings - Guoxuan High-Tech is forecasted to have an EPS of 0.90 in 2025, with a strong recommendation for investment [8] - CATL is expected to maintain a significant market share, with its EPS projected to reach 14.83 in 2025 [8]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of industry self-discipline and technological innovation to optimize the supply side of the photovoltaic industry, with a focus on the reduction of silver usage in manufacturing processes [4][5][6] - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a recovery in Q1 2025 due to a surge in installations driven by policy changes, although the overall industry remains in a loss-making phase [4][6] - Key areas for supply-side optimization include the silicon material and battery cell segments, which are critical for improving efficiency and reducing costs [4][30] Investment Summary - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see a total global installation of approximately 530 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 35.9%, with China's new installations projected at 277.57 GW, up 28.3% [14][15] - The report highlights that the first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in installations in China, with 104.93 GW added, representing a 74.6% year-on-year growth [14] - The report notes that the average cash cost of silicon materials is around 34,000 RMB per ton, with leading companies like Tongwei and Daqo Energy achieving lower costs [31][30] Technological Innovations - The report discusses the ongoing advancements in battery technologies, including the development of new techniques such as 0BB and bifacial cells, which are expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [35][37] - The reduction of silver usage is identified as a key strategy for cost reduction, with alternatives like copper plating and copper paste being explored [5][37] - The report mentions that the new "stacked grid" technology is gaining traction, which eliminates traditional grid structures to improve efficiency and reduce material costs [46][37] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry is still facing overcapacity, and the recovery of profit margins will depend on the successful elimination of outdated production capacity [6][54] - It recommends focusing on companies that are leading in technological advancements and cost reductions, such as Tongwei and Sunshine Power, as potential investment opportunities [6][57] - The report also highlights the growing demand in the energy storage sector, suggesting that companies involved in this area may benefit from increased market activity [57]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 6 月 11 日星期三 分析师推荐 【东兴有色金属】金属行业 2025 半年度展望（Ⅲ）：供需结构持续改善—小 金属板块或显现底部抬升（20250610） 我们在 2025 年 6 月 6 日发布的报告《金属行业 2025 半年度展望（Ⅰ）：弱供 给周期下的行业配置属性探讨—工业金属板块高景气度延续》及《金属行业 2025 半年度展望（Ⅱ）：供需结构强化叠加流动性周期切换—贵金属行业进 入强景气周期》中，分别对工业金属板块的铜、铝和贵金属板块的黄金、白 银及铂金进行了讨论。本文中，我们将对镁与锂两大行业的供给与需求状态 进行研究，并对其未来变化进行预测，从而判断其供需结构的变化趋势。我 们发现，镁行业供需或进入持续性紧平衡状态，而锂行业供给过剩状态或逐 渐改善。 全球金属行业仍然处于弱供给周期。全球矿端有效供给增量显现刚性化特征， 2024 年全球矿业上游勘探投入在金属价格整体高位背景下延续第二年回落， 2024 年全球金属勘探投入已降 3%至 125 亿美元。尽管 3 年行业矿端平均资本 投入周期数据暗示数年后金属行业的供给弹性或有释放空间，如 2021-202 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. non-farm employment data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly above the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2][3] - The labor market is characterized by low turnover rates, hiring rates, and layoff rates, indicating a stagnant labor market [3] - The report suggests that the summer service consumption may see some support, particularly in tourism and gambling sectors, with hourly wage growth outpacing inflation at 4% year-on-year [3] Industry Overview - The computer industry is experiencing a revaluation driven by AI Agent technologies, with the sector outperforming the broader market in the first half of 2025 [9][10] - The AI Agent segment is expected to see continued growth due to favorable policies, technological advancements, and increasing demand, with a projected market size growth from 147.3 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.3 trillion yuan by 2028 [11][12] - The report identifies key players in the AI Agent space, including both platform-based and vertical application companies, highlighting their potential to enhance productivity across various sectors such as finance, education, and healthcare [12][14] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the potential of AI Agent technologies to reshape the computer industry, suggesting that companies involved in this space will likely benefit from the ongoing developments [11][13] - The magnesium industry is expected to enter a state of sustained tight balance, with global demand projected to grow significantly due to applications in lightweight automotive and other sectors [27][28] - The lithium industry is also forecasted to improve its supply-demand relationship, with global lithium supply expected to increase from 123.1 thousand tons LCE in 2024 to 186 thousand tons LCE by 2027, driven by the growth in electric vehicle and energy storage markets [28][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The global metal industry is currently in a weak supply cycle, with supply growth remaining rigid and under pressure. The exploration investment in the mining sector has decreased by 3% to $12.5 billion in 2024, continuing a downward trend for the second consecutive year [6][21]. - The magnesium industry is expected to enter a state of sustained tight balance, while the lithium industry is showing signs of improvement in its supply-demand relationship [5][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global metal supply growth rate is significantly lower than the output growth rate, with the actual supply growth rate dropping from 6.35% to 2.22% in 2024, which is only 49.8% of the average growth rate over the past 30 years [7][22]. - The supply of magnesium is projected to maintain a tight balance, with global magnesium demand expected to grow from 112,000 tons in 2024 to 200,000 tons by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 21% [10][62]. 2. Small Metals Sector - The magnesium sector is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with China's magnesium resources accounting for 70% of global reserves. The country is projected to increase its magnesium output from 102.6 million tons in 2024 to 175 million tons by 2027 [50][68]. - The lithium sector is expected to see a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with global lithium supply projected to grow from 123.1 million tons LCE in 2024 to 186 million tons LCE by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 15% [11][12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the cyclical, growth, and hedging attributes of the metal industry, suggesting that investors should pay attention to industrial metals with resilient supply-demand states, small metals with expanding demand elasticity, and precious metals with strong hedging properties [7][8].

Employment Data - In May, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 139,000, slightly above the expected 130,000 but down from the previous value of 147,000[4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching both the expectation and the previous value[4] - Key sectors supporting non-farm employment include healthcare and accommodation, with significant job additions in education and healthcare (87,000), accommodation (31,000), arts and entertainment (17,000), finance (13,000), and social assistance (8,000)[5] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market shows signs of rigidity, with low turnover rates, hiring rates, and layoff rates indicating limited mobility[5] - Initial jobless claims have been rising slightly over several weeks, which could signal potential negative trends if the cumulative data continues to increase[5] - Labor market data tends to lag behind economic indicators and financial market performance, making it unreliable for predicting economic turning points[5] Consumer Spending Outlook - Summer service sector consumption is expected to remain robust, supported by a notable increase in tourism-related employment in May[5] - Hourly wage growth year-on-year is at 4%, significantly outpacing inflation, which may bolster consumer spending during the summer[5] Economic Risks - Tariff impacts are viewed as external shocks that require time to manifest in economic data, potentially leading to longer-term economic challenges if unresolved[6] - While tariff uncertainties have decreased, they have not been eliminated, and the market may ultimately accept a foundational tariff rate of 10%[6] - The potential for further tax reductions under future policies could stimulate short-term economic activity but may worsen federal debt in the long run[6]