非农略有好转，可延后但不足以阻止降息 2026 年 2 月 27 日 宏观经济 事件点评 | | | 事件： 美国 1 月季调后非农就业增 13 万，预期 7 万，前值 5 万；失业率 4.3%，预期 4.4%，前值 4.4%。2025 年 11 月和 12 月份 非农新增就业人数分别下调 1.5 万和 0.2 万至 4.1 万和 4.8 万。 主要观点： 数据方面，就业新增主要集中于医疗（8.2 万）、社会辅助（4.2 万）和建筑（3.8 万），而联邦政府（-3.4 万）和金融业（-2.2 万）新增下降。私营部门非农就业尚可，特别是顺周期部门。扣除政府就业，私营部门非农新增就业数 17.2 万；扣除政府和 医疗就业，其他非农就业新增 9 万，为 2023 年 7 月以来的较高水平。政府和医疗就业顺周期性不强，特别是疫情以后，扣 除前后的非农就业新增分歧较大，扣除后的非农新增更能反映实际的就业体感。 具体来看，商品生产新增 3.6 万，主要集中于建筑业 3.3 万，制造业 0.5 万。建筑业主要集中于非地产行业（2.5 万），推测 仍与 AI 基础设施建设相关。半导体和其他电子器件制造就业在过去 12 个月就 ...

Data Insights - The January CPI in the U.S. increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous 0.3%[3] - Year-on-year CPI growth was 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5% and previous 2.7%[3] - Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations, while year-on-year growth was 2.5%, consistent with expectations but down from 2.6%[3] Inflation Contributors - The largest contributors to the January CPI increase were housing and food, both at 0.2% month-on-month, while energy prices decreased by 1.5%[4] - Year-on-year food inflation was at 2.9%, with significant increases in baked goods (3.1%), beef (15%), seafood (5.1%), and coffee (18.3%)[4] - Energy prices showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, with energy commodities down 7.3% and energy services up 7.2%[5] Core Goods and Services - Core goods saw a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with furniture and home decor rising by 3.8% and clothing by 1.7%[6] - Core services year-on-year growth was 2.9%, primarily driven by housing, which is experiencing a downward trend in growth rates[7] - The rental growth rate was 2.8%, while the equivalent rent for owner-occupied housing was 3.3%[7] Economic Outlook - There is a potential window for 2 to 3 interest rate cuts this year, with no immediate inflationary pressures expected before Q4[10] - The impact of tariffs on inflation appears to be contained, with no significant spillover effects observed in non-tariff categories[8] - The overall economic environment suggests a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve, with a focus on balancing inflation control and economic growth[14]

银行行业：净利润增速环比提升， 净息差企稳 ——2025 年银行业监管数据点评 事件：2 月 12 日，国家金融监管总局发布 2025 年商业银行主要监管指标。 净息差：连续两个季度持平，国股行环比小幅下降、城农商行环比上升。2025 全年商业银行净息差 1.42%，与 1H25、1-3Q25 持平；同比降幅收窄至 10.5bp。 其中，国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行净息差分别为 1.30%、1.56%、1.37%、 1.60%，环比前三季度分别 -0.3bp、-0.6bp、+0.2bp、+2bp。四季度净息差 整体呈现企稳趋势，国股行环比小幅下降、城农商行环比回升，或与负债成本 压降幅度差异相关。展望 2026 年，在存款到期重定价和央行呵护下，负债成 本将继续下降，资产端收益率降幅收敛，净息差降幅有望进一步收窄或企稳。 盈利表现：2025 年商业银行利润增速环比提升，国有行持平、城农商行大幅 改善。2025 年商业银行实现净利润 2.38 万亿，同比+2.3%，增速环比前三季 度改善 2.3pct。其中，国有行净利润同比+2.3%、增速环比持平；城商行、农 商行净利润在低基数下实现同比高增，同比增速分别为 ...

东兴晨报 P1 经济要闻 | 本期编辑 | | | --- | --- | | 分析师：刘嘉玮 | | | 010-66554043 | liujw_yjs@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： | S1480519050001 | 东兴证券研究所金股推荐 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | | --- | --- | | 002392.SZ | 北京利尔 | | 002991.SZ | 甘源食品 | | 300619.SZ | 金银河 | | 300627.SZ | 华测导航 | | 300666.SZ | 江丰电子 | | 300810.SZ | 中科海讯 | | 603209.SH | 兴通股份 | | 603239.SH | 浙江仙通 | | 688095.SH | 福昕软件 | | 688627.SH | 精智达 | 数据来源：《二月金股汇》 2026 年 02 月 02 日，东兴证券研究所 东 兴 晨 报 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 2026 年 2 月 27 日星期五 1. 中国人民银行：发布关于银行业金融机构人民币跨境同业融资 ...

首席周观点：2026 年第 8 周 2026 年 2 月 26 日 首席观点 周度观点 张天丰 | 东兴证券金属首席分析师 S1480520100001，021-25102914，Zhang_tf@dxzq.net.cn 金属行业：小金属板块估值及收益弹性显现释放 DONGXING SECURITIES 东兴证券研究报告 首席周观点：2026年第8周 P1 金属行业的供需结构明显优化。从供给端观察，金属行业上游已处于弱供给周期，全球矿业 的供给状态在 2028 年前或延续强刚性化特征并且已显现产业链环节的垂直化扩散。从需求 端观察，绿色低碳能源转型、新质生产力发展及算力资本周期的来临或将提振多金属品种需 求曲线右移。 流动性周期的切换有助于金属价格的弹性释放。尽管 2025 年全球货币政策已由紧缩周期转 向宽松周期，但降息缩表的操作方式或将在 2026 年逐渐常态化，全球央行资产负债表的再扩 张或推动本就供需状态紧平衡的小金属品种获得流动性溢价。本文，我们将对稀土、铷铯、 锂、锑、钼和镁等小金属品种的基本面状态进行供需梳理和未来变化趋势的预测。我们认为， 金属行业的供需结构优化及流动性溢价或再次提振小金属板块 ...

农林牧渔行业：节前猪价转跌，1 月出栏环比下行 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：猪价旺季回升，1 月均价回暖。农业农村部监测数据显示，2026 年 1 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 25.38 元/公斤、13.18 元/公斤和 23.40 元/公斤，环比变化分别为 8.44%、7.50%和 3.39%。猪价自 25 年 12 月底部 回升，涨势持续至 1 月中下旬，而后止涨下滑。2 月猪价打破年前高企预期， 持续回调，截至 2 月 10 日，全国外三元生猪均价 12 元/公斤。 供应端：1 月规模场按照正常节奏出栏，中小散户节奏放缓，对 1 月猪价形成 支撑。2 月节后弱预期带来节前出栏集中，生猪供应压力增大。需求端：1 月 春节备货逐步开启，终端市场有所提振。但屠宰端盈利压力较大，对开工率和 价格上行造成阻力。2 月上旬屠宰开工率环比一月末略有提振，但仍不及往年 腊月水平，春节节点偏晚，需求分散，终端备货支撑不足。 产能变化趋势：国家统计局数据显示，10 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3990 万头，环 比下降 1.10%，12 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3961 万头，相比 10 月末进一步下降。 从三方数据来看 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various sectors and companies, indicating potential investment opportunities in the market. [2][5] Economic News - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 320.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan from the market. [3] - The overnight SHIBOR rate reported at 1.3680%, down by 1 basis point, while the 7-day SHIBOR rate decreased by 4 basis points to 1.4570%. [3] - The Supreme People's Court reported over 27,000 cases related to cross-border fraud, with significant sentences handed down to key criminal groups. [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology discussed the feasibility of new frequency bands for IMT and future 6G technology at a recent international meeting. [3] - Heilongjiang Province's government report emphasized the reform of state-owned enterprises and support for private sector development. [3] - The establishment of a national quality inspection center for rare earth permanent magnet motors in Liaoning Province aims to enhance quality assurance in high-end manufacturing. [4] Company News - Wens Foodstuff Group announced a share buyback plan of 800 million to 1.2 billion yuan at a maximum price of 24.00 yuan per share. [5] - Jiangxi Tungsten Holdings is planning to issue A-shares to specific investors to enhance its core competitiveness and fund acquisitions totaling up to 1.882 billion yuan. [5] - Huylon New Materials is undergoing a significant change that may affect its control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock. [5] - Fangzheng Valve reported a revenue of 733 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 2.98%, with net profit down by 6.34%. [5] - Nanya New Materials achieved a revenue of 5.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.52%, with net profit rising by 378.65% due to market demand recovery. [5] Transportation Industry Insights - In January 2026, domestic airline capacity decreased by approximately 4.3% year-on-year, but increased by 5.8% compared to December 2025, as airlines prepared for the Spring Festival. [7] - The overall passenger load factor for airlines improved by about 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, although it decreased by 0.4 percentage points compared to December. [7] - During the Spring Festival holiday, national civil aviation transported 22.05 million passengers, with a flight completion rate of 95.8%, indicating growth compared to the previous year. [8] - International flight capacity increased by 2.6% year-on-year in January, with a slight improvement in load factors, although some airlines faced challenges due to changes in the Japanese route. [9] - Baiyun Airport reported a significant increase in passenger throughput, while Shanghai Airport experienced a decline, attributed to shifts in travel demand. [10] - The report suggests focusing on large airlines for their earnings elasticity, as the industry moves towards a more balanced supply-demand dynamic. [11]

航空机场 2026 年 1 月数据点评：春节错期 导致 1 月数据平淡，春运数据表现良好 事件：上市航司发布 2026 年 1 月运营数据。受春节错期影响，数据表现较为 平淡，但我们认为实际情况好于预期。 国内航线：春节错期导致 1 月运力投放同比下降，春运数据表现良好 2026 年 1 月上市公司国内航线运力投放同比下降约 4.3%，环比 25 年 12 月提 升约 5.8%。行业备战春运，运力投放环比有较明显提升。但由于 26 年春节较 25 年晚了近 3 周，春节错期导致今年 1 月运力投放同比是下降的。 客座率方面，1 月上市公司整体客座率较 25 年同期提升约 1.6pct，同比继续 改善；环比 12 月则下降 0.4pct。由于今年春节较晚，但航司的运力投放已经 提前部署，因此 1 月客座率表现环比看并不强势。我们认为这是正常现象，随 着春运逐渐发力，预计 2 月客座率环比会有较明显提升。 根据民航局数据，2 月 15 日起的 9 天春节假期期间，全国民航累计运输旅客 2205 万人次、保障航班 17.1 万班，日均 245 万人次、18956 班，分别较 2025 年春运同期增长 7.7%、4. ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the strategic initiatives of the company to expand its product lines in the refractory materials sector and emerging technologies, particularly through a planned capital increase of up to 1.034 billion RMB for new projects and overseas expansion [6][11]. Company Developments - Changxin Bochuang signed a letter of intent to acquire 93.81% of Shanghai Honghui Light Communication Technology Co., Ltd. for approximately 375 million RMB, aiming to enhance its product line in the optical communication field [5]. - Tongwei Co., Ltd. is planning to acquire 100% of Qinghai Lihua Qingneng Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, with the transaction expected to not alter the control of the company [5]. - Yutong Optical received acceptance from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for its application to issue shares to specific investors, pending further approvals [5]. - Maoyan Entertainment forecasts a revenue of up to 4.7 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2025, representing a growth of approximately 15.1% compared to 2024 [5]. - Conch Cement's major shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between 700 million and 1.4 billion RMB within six months [5]. Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China's industrial economy, with a 6.9% year-on-year increase in value added for SMEs in 2025, outperforming the overall industrial growth rate by 1.0 percentage points [2]. - The construction of a new production line for zirconia and zircon-based materials is expected to yield a post-tax internal rate of return of 29.35% and a payback period of 4.89 years, indicating strong potential for profitability [7][8]. - The establishment of a production base in Vietnam is part of the company's strategy to enhance its overseas operations, targeting the growing demand in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam [9].

Core Insights - The report highlights the structural expansion of the rubidium and cesium market driven by the increasing penetration of perovskite solar cells and the development of space photovoltaics [7][12][13] Industry Overview - Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) are identified as a new type of solar cell with advantages such as low cost, high efficiency, lightweight, and flexibility compared to traditional silicon cells [7] - The report predicts that the penetration rate of perovskite solar cells in the photovoltaic market will rise significantly, from 1.3% in 2025 to 30% by 2030, driven by their cost-effectiveness and efficiency [9][12] Market Dynamics - The demand for rubidium and cesium is expected to grow substantially, with a projected CAGR of 115% from 2025 to 2030, as the perovskite battery market expands [12][16] - The report estimates that global demand for rubidium will increase from 37 tons in 2025 to 1696 tons by 2030, correlating with the anticipated growth in perovskite solar cell production [12][16] Technological Advancements - The stability of perovskite solar cells is a key challenge, but the addition of rubidium and cesium is expected to enhance their performance and longevity [8] - Flexible perovskite solar cells are anticipated to find applications in various fields, including building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), wearable devices, and automotive power generation [10][11] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the period from 2026 to 2027 will be crucial for the industrialization and validation of perovskite solar cells, with significant advancements expected in their application in space photovoltaics [13][14] - The integration of perovskite solar cells in space applications is projected to drive demand for rubidium significantly, with estimates indicating a potential need for 220 tons by 2030 due to space solar power initiatives [15][16]