行 业 研 究 农林牧渔行业：4 月猪价震荡，企 业出栏体重上行 2025 年 5 月 22 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：4 月生猪价格震荡，仔猪价格表现偏强。农业农村部监测数据 显示，2025 年 4 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 39.16 元/公斤、15.20 元/公 斤和 26.07 元/公斤，环比变化分别为 5.15%、-1.00%和-1.19%。4 月猪价围 绕 15 元/公斤窄幅震荡，五一期间全国生猪价格以稳为主，局地小幅震荡，截 止 5 月 15 日，全国出栏生猪均价 14.98 元/公斤。 供应端：24 年年中能繁母猪存栏微增，对应 4 月出栏生猪量整体充足，叠加 饲料成本低位，养殖压栏增重意愿增强，生猪体重整体增长。需求端：4 月二 次育肥补栏增加，截留标猪货源；下旬五一备货积极性提升，共同对猪价形成 支撑。4 月生猪屠宰开工率回升 1.42 个百分点至 27.53%，屠宰企业收购顺畅。 3 月白毛比价 1.37，4 月毛白价差 4.33 元/公斤，终端消费底部小幅回升。供 给端出栏节奏与二育对短期价格影响更大。 建议持续关注大宗原料走势。5 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 5 月 21 日星期三 分析师推荐 【东兴商社】黄金珠宝行业：金价上行带来业绩分化，关注行业发展新趋势 （20250520） 金价上行压抑黄金珠宝消费需求，行业 2024 年度和 2025 年一季度收入和业 绩表现较弱，港股公司表现好于 A 股公司。2024 年 A 股黄金珠宝行业营收同 比下降 4.73%，归母净利润同比下降 17.75%。A 股+港股黄金珠宝行业营收同 比增长 3.28%，归母净利润同比增长 9.87%。根据中国黄金协会数据，上海黄 金交易所 Au9999 黄金价格全年上涨 27.87%，催生黄金投资需求但压抑消费 需求，行业收入和利润表现整体偏弱，但港股公司表现明显好于 A 股公司。 2025 年一季度 A 股黄金珠宝行业营收同比下降 25.22%，归母净利润同比增长 3.46%。2025 年 Q1 金价延续上行态势，行业收入表现疲软，但受益于部分公 司利润端改善明显，行业整体盈利能力有所恢复。 行业内公司业绩表现分化严重，金价持续上行总体来看对消费的需求影响是 负向的，但仍有部分公司取得较快的业绩增长表现，我们将业绩表现较好的 公司分为两大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for CNOOC Services [4] Core Views - CNOOC Services achieved a total revenue of 48.3 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.137 billion yuan, up 4.1% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 10.8 billion yuan, a 6.4% increase, with net profit soaring by 39.6% to 888 million yuan [1][10] Summary by Sections Drilling Services - The average daily revenue for semi-submersible drilling platforms increased to 143,000 USD, a rise of 7.5% year-on-year. The drilling segment generated 13.2 billion yuan in revenue, up 9.4% year-on-year. Despite a decrease in operational days due to typhoons, Q1 2025 saw an 11.4% increase in operational days, with semi-submersible daily rates maintaining a high level [2][3] Oilfield Technical Services - Revenue from oilfield technical services reached 27.655 billion yuan in 2024, up 7.4%, with the technical segment's contribution rising to 57%. The core business line showed improved operational volume and R&D efficiency, supporting resilient gross margins [2][3] Other Businesses - The ship service segment saw a significant increase in operational volume, up 33.8% in 2024 and 44.9% in Q1 2025. However, the geophysical segment experienced fluctuations due to project cycles, with a notable decline in Q1 2025 [3] Financial Health - The company improved its debt structure, with a decrease in current liabilities to 2.91 billion yuan, down 1.69% year-on-year. Operating cash flow was 11 billion yuan, a decline of 15.9% due to increased operating costs [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing demand in deepwater and technical services, with a focus on international expansion and technological advancements. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.729 billion, 5.896 billion, and 7.487 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.99, 1.24, and 1.57 yuan [10][11]

Weekly Insights - The market has returned to a normal state, maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern as the US-China tariff dispute has come to a close, leading to a decrease in concerns regarding the index [4][7] - The market is currently focused on rhythm and opportunities, with an increase in individual stock opportunities, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks following the implementation of new restructuring regulations [4][7] - The restructuring and mergers in emerging industries are expected to significantly improve the asset quality of the A-share market, enhancing market activity and profit potential [4][7] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a high position and actively participate in structural investment opportunities, as the market is expected to continue its oscillation until July [5][8] - Given the low trading volume, large-cap sectors may struggle to sustain upward momentum, making it reasonable to engage in sector rotation strategies [5][8] - There is an expectation of a rebound in undervalued sectors as interest rates continue to decline, with institutional funds likely to favor low-valuation, high-dividend stocks [5][8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on small and mid-cap stocks in May, as the market's restructuring style is expected to strengthen significantly, particularly represented by the CSI 1000 index [6][9] - Continue to look for opportunities in the large technology sector, which presents good entry points for investment [6][9] - Pay attention to the new consumption sector, particularly companies with relevant IP, as they are likely to create new consumption scenarios and business models [6][9] Market Data - The overall market rebounded this week, with the ChiNext index showing the largest increase [10] - The trading volume has decreased, indicating weaker market activity [15] - The financing balance has also declined as market activity has noticeably decreased [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for CNOOC Services [4] Core Views - CNOOC Services achieved a total revenue of 48.3 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.137 billion yuan, up 4.1% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 10.8 billion yuan, a 6.4% increase, with net profit soaring by 39.6% to 888 million yuan [1][10] Summary by Sections Drilling Services - The average daily revenue for semi-submersible drilling platforms increased to 143,000 USD, a rise of 7.5% year-on-year. The drilling segment generated 13.2 billion yuan in revenue, up 9.4% year-on-year. Despite a decrease in operational days due to typhoons, Q1 2025 saw an 11.4% increase in operational days, with semi-submersible daily rates maintaining a high level [2][3] Oilfield Technical Services - Revenue from oilfield technical services reached 27.655 billion yuan in 2024, up 7.4%, with the technical segment's contribution rising to 57%. The core business line's operational volume increased year-on-year, supported by improved R&D efficiency [2][3] Other Businesses - The ship service segment saw a significant increase in operational volume, up 33.8% in 2024 and 44.9% in Q1 2025. However, the geophysical segment experienced fluctuations due to project cycles, with a notable decline in Q1 2025 [3] Financial Health - The company improved its debt structure, with current liabilities decreasing by 1.69% year-on-year. Operating cash flow for 2024 was 11 billion yuan, down 15.9% due to a 9.8% increase in operating costs. The financial expense ratio decreased to 1.29% [3][10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing demand in deepwater fields and technological services, with a focus on international expansion and increased overseas orders. The report anticipates net profits of 4.729 billion yuan, 5.896 billion yuan, and 7.487 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10][11]

公 司 研 究 国轩高科（002074.SZ）：多项新品 发布，固态电池产业化进程提速 事件：5 月 16-17 日，公司举办国轩高科 2025 全球科技大会，在大会上集中 发布包括"G 垣"准固态电池、"启晨"二代电芯、"G 行"重卡电池标准箱、 "乾元智储"20MWh 储能电池系统、Axtrem 数智化解决方案与"金石"全固 态电池共 6 款新品及产品进展情况更新。 点评： 公司固态电池产业化进程持续提速。本次公司科技大会上共发布 2 款固态电池 技术相关产品，其中新发布的"G 垣"准固态电池，采用 197Ah 方形电芯设 计，电芯能量密度可达 300Wh/kg 以上，系统能量密度超 235Wh/kg，搭载新 能源车可实现 1,000km 续航里程，同时应用场景覆盖 eVTOL、人形机器人等 新领域，目前该产品已进入客户验证阶段，完成超 5 家客户电芯送样测试与超 4 家客户上车测试，搭载 G 垣准固态电池的"001"号样车总里程已经超 1 万 公里；公司在大会上还宣布去年发布的硫化物"金石"全固态电池的产业化已 取得明显进展，现阶段该产品电芯与电池能量密度分别可达 350/280Wh/kg 并 且已开始 ...

2025 年 5 月 20 日 看好/维持 汽车 行业报告 | 分析师 | 李金锦 电话：010-66554142 邮箱：lijj-yjs@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480521030003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 研究助理 | 曹泽宇 电话：17512502830 邮箱：caozy-yjs@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480124040003 | 汽车行业 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报综 述：以旧换新政策推动业绩增长，行业盈 利能力复苏 投资摘要： 受益以旧换新政策，2024 年来我国乘用车销量保持稳步增长。2024 年我国乘用车（广义）批发销量为 2740.97 万辆，同比增长 6.15%；2025 年 1-4 月，我国乘用车批发销量为 859.7 万辆，同比增长 12.91%。 2024 年新能源乘用车累计销售 1222.7 万辆，同比增长 31.99%；2025 年 1-4 月，新能源乘用车累计销量 398.1 万辆，同比增长 42.08%。2024 年新能源乘用车渗透率提升至 44.6%，较 2023 年提升 10.2pct。出 ...

汽车行业 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报综 述：以旧换新政策推动业绩增长，行业盈 利能力复苏 2025 年 5 月 20 日 看好/维持 汽车 行业报告 | 分析师 | 李金锦 电话：010-66554142 邮箱：lijj-yjs@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480521030003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 研究助理 | 曹泽宇 电话：17512502830 邮箱：caozy-yjs@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480124040003 | 投资摘要： 受益以旧换新政策，2024 年来我国乘用车销量保持稳步增长。2024 年我国乘用车（广义）批发销量为 2740.97 万辆，同比增长 6.15%；2025 年 1-4 月，我国乘用车批发销量为 859.7 万辆，同比增长 12.91%。 2024 年新能源乘用车累计销售 1222.7 万辆，同比增长 31.99%；2025 年 1-4 月，新能源乘用车累计销量 398.1 万辆，同比增长 42.08%。2024 年新能源乘用车渗透率提升至 44.6%，较 2023 年提升 10.2pct。出 ...

统计局 70 城房价数据点评：4 月一 线城市二手房环比转跌，二三线城 市二手房继续下行 环比：4 月一线城市二手房价格环比转跌，二三线城市二手房价格环比跌幅扩 大。 4 月份，70 个大中城市新建商品住宅销售价格指数环比增速为-0.1%，前值为 -0.1%。 4 月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格指数环比增速为 0.0%，前值为 0.1%。 其中，北京、上海、深圳、广州当月环比增速分别为 0.1%、0.5%、-0.1%、-0.2%。 二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格指数环比增速为 0.0%，前值为 0.0%；三线城 市新建商品住宅销售价格指数环比增速为-0.2%，前值为-0.2%。 4 月份，70 个大中城市二手住宅价格指数环比增速为-0.4%，前值为-0.2%。 4 月份，一线城市二手住宅价格指数环比增速为-0.2%，前值为 0.2%。其中， 北京、上海、深圳、广州当月环比增速分别为-0.6%、0.1%、-0.3%、0.0%。 二线城市二手住宅价格指数环比增速为-0.4%，前值为-0.2%；三线城市二手住 宅价格指数环比增速为-0.4%，前值为-0.3%。 同比：4 月各线城市新房及二手房价格同比降幅均有所收 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, new home sales and new construction area both saw an expanded decline, with cumulative sales area from January to April down by 2.8% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 3% [1] - The cumulative sales amount for the same period decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, worsening from a prior decline of 2.1% [1] - The average sales price in April showed a month-on-month increase of 3%, despite a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% [1] - New construction area and completion area also experienced a significant year-on-year decline, with new construction area down by 23.8% and completion area down by 16.9% from January to April [2] - The cumulative development investment amount decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, slightly worsening from a previous decline of 9.9% [2] - The funding available to real estate developers saw a year-on-year decline of 4.1% from January to April, compared to a previous decline of 3.7% [3] - The report suggests focusing on valuation recovery opportunities due to policy implementation in the short term, and in the long term, on leading companies with quality product resources and real estate operation capabilities in core cities [3] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In April 2025, the sales area decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, worsening from a previous decline of 0.9% [1] - The sales amount in April decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, compared to a prior decline of 1.6% [1] Construction Data - The new construction area in April decreased by 22.1% year-on-year, worsening from a previous decline of 18.1% [2] - The completion area in April saw a year-on-year decline of 27.9%, compared to a previous decline of 11.5% [2] Investment Data - The cumulative development investment amount from January to April decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 9.9% [2] - In April, the single-month development investment amount decreased by 11.3% year-on-year, worsening from a previous decline of 10% [2] Funding Data - The cumulative funding available to real estate developers decreased by 4.1% year-on-year from January to April, compared to a previous decline of 3.7% [3] - In April, the single-month funding available decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, worsening from a previous decline of 3.9% [3]